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Yeah if Georgia is within ratfuck range, it will be stolen. I have almost no doubts of this. R+1 or 2 final result probably means Biden won it.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:33
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Since I'm having mild brain farts this evening can someone remind me again why Penn appears safer than NC or TX? Because of expected high Dem turnout on election day?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:35
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Murgos posted:My prediction based off this information is Trump gets his big election stealing machine moving, the case makes its tortuous way to SCOTUS who rules 5/4 to say gently caress the law and hands the Georgia slate to Trump. Meanwhile as this drama unfolds the other states finish their counts and register 370 EV votes for Biden. Do you realize how long that'd take? In your scenario the election would be an obvious Biden win before the SCOTUS even sniffed it. Doesn't mean it couldn't get stolen in other ways, mind.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:35
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Lemming posted:
Larson said it was just a dumb joke that cows would make lovely tools.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:36
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Killer robot posted:Being from the rust belt I have to imagine a lot of that red shift is caused by old racist union dems who have been told for years how Trump finally saved them from NAFTA, while the south is where rust belt manufacturing jobs actually moved in the 1990s so it has less traction there. It’s like the West Virginia vs Virginia shift. As Democrats increasingly become the party of educated professionals, they are winning growing sun belt states and losing ground in the industrial Midwest as old white blue collar guys switch permanently Republican. But WV has 5 electors and VA has 13. And states like Michigan and Ohio are losing population, while Georgia and North Carolina are growing. In 1980, Michigan had 21 EV and Georgia had 12. In 2020, they both have 16
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Oct 28, 2020 00:37
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Grouchio posted:Since I'm having mild brain farts this evening can someone remind me again why Penn appears safer than NC or TX? Because of expected high Dem turnout on election day? number higher https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
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Oct 28, 2020 00:37
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Grouchio posted:Since I'm having mild brain farts this evening can someone remind me again why Penn appears safer than NC or TX? Because of expected high Dem turnout on election day?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:37
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https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/1321225949061533696 his rallies arnt helping him at all. hell, they are making poo poo worse.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:39
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SamuraiFoochs posted:Do you realize how long that'd take? In your scenario the election would be an obvious Biden win before the SCOTUS even sniffed it. It was a dumb joke about Trumps evil being incompetent. Trump having lost before the verdict was announced was the joke.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:39
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So Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Hannity are making GBS threads up the Florida poll averages yeah?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:40
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Murgos posted:It was a dumb joke about Trumps evil being incompetent. Trump having lost before the verdict was announced was the joke. Sorry friend, USPOL/D&D exposure has broken my brain
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Oct 28, 2020 00:41
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/1321225949061533696 People don’t like the traveling COVID circus.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:42
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exquisite tea posted:What happens when that bad actor is the President of the United States. SAG and Equity would like to emphasize that Trump's work on a reality television show does not qualify him as an actor.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:42
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He was also in Home Alone 2
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Oct 28, 2020 00:44
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Phlegmish posted:He was also in Home Alone 2 He was also in "Ghosts Can't Do It," which I have not seen but sounds repellant.  Apparently, he got a Golden Raspberry for it, though, so...good for him?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:47
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Fojar38 posted:So Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Hannity are making GBS threads up the Florida poll averages yeah?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:47
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Majorian posted:He was also in "Ghosts Can't Do It," which I have not seen but sounds repellant. Surely a movie called Ghosts Can't Do It is a cinematic masterpiece
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Oct 28, 2020 00:48
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Phlegmish posted:Surely a movie called Ghosts Can't Do It is a cinematic masterpiece We Hate Movies did a good episode on it, but it unfortunately has not aged well - they did it right before the 2016 election, and well, they did not predict the outcome accurately, let's say. Anyway, some valuable numbers for context: https://twitter.com/VolviEinhorn/status/1321190042652577792 Majorian fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 00:52
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Majorian posted:He was also in "Ghosts Can't Do It," which I have not seen but sounds repellant.  It was filmed in Trump Tower. I remembered it from that weird Barron on a lion photo:  They also reference Trump in the movie about how he's late for the party with all the other villainous rich people who work with the Devil. JazzFlight fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 00:53
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Fojar38 posted:So Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Hannity are making GBS threads up the Florida poll averages yeah? They are, look at the difference between 538 and Economist models of FL, the only real difference are the rhetorical polls if I'm not mistaken. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/ https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/florida Florida gonna Florida, we'll know in a couple weeks who was closer. Polls have also been more left-leaning than the results by a couple points for 2016 and 2018 if memory serves.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:54
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That's a Hansa rideon and, as noted, I have the same one lol. They were most commonly at FAO Schwartz.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:55
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SamuraiFoochs posted:I'm an NC resident so I can speak a little more directly. The returns aren't "pop the champagne" good for Biden, but considering Trump won by something like 200k votes which is not a lot, the numbers are very solid. I literally started to do individual county dives FFS. I pulled a Wasserman. Can anyone remember when NC or something like Indiana were called the night of or we had to wait until the next day? I also have a vague memory or Missouri being too close to call that night as well.
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Oct 28, 2020 00:56
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/1321225949061533696 I really want to believe this is true but isn’t Priorities USA a Democratic Super PAC?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:57
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Grouchio posted:And how does North Carolina look with all those new +1 polls? Didn't Ipsos just give Biden +4 yesterday? Cooper has been above 50% with a 10 point lead for months, so maybe that can have a coattail effect. Cunningham is in the scariest position. He's leading usually, but only by 1-2 points with a lot of undecideds left still. Bodyholes fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 00:59
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JazzFlight posted:A crazy thing is that I was watching The Devil's Advocate the other day and noticed something about the weird gold apartment a character was living in... The best Trump role is John Glover as Clamp in Gremlins 2, the greatest film ever made.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:03
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Would anyone be generous enough to share with me/the thread a 538 map of the best possible outcome for Biden in terms of a landslide, based on optimism and the polls? Wanna see dat EV number and swathes of blue. Thanks in advance.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:03
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britishbornandbread posted:Would anyone be generous enough to share with me/the thread a 538 map of the best possible outcome for Biden in terms of a landslide, based on optimism and the polls? Wanna see dat EV number and swathes of blue. Thanks in advance. I got 413 in 538's doohickey by turning every light blue state solid blue, and then continuing to do so as the model updates turned more states blue cheetah7071 fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 01:07
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britishbornandbread posted:Would anyone be generous enough to share with me/the thread a 538 map of the best possible outcome for Biden in terms of a landslide, based on optimism and the polls? Wanna see dat EV number and swathes of blue. Thanks in advance. I even spotted Trump Georgia
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Oct 28, 2020 01:07
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Bodyholes posted:It's a coin-toss, statistically. Polls look pretty similar to 2008, which is scary because Obama only won by 0.3% that time. Significantly better than 2016 (huge undecided population that broke last minute for Trump) or 2012 (Romney was always winning in polls). Um, what're you talking about? The latest poll from about a week ago from YouGov (B on 538) has Cunningham +8. And this is anecdotal but people loving HATE Tillis here, not like, Pence in Indiana levels but he's not remotely popular and the "scandal" is getting virtually no play. Cooper is definitely in the best position (he's gonna waltz to a win) but if any split happens I figure Biden loses, Cunningham wins. That said if you put a gun to my head now I'd say Biden wins both.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:07
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britishbornandbread posted:Would anyone be generous enough to share with me/the thread a 538 map of the best possible outcome for Biden in terms of a landslide, based on optimism and the polls? Wanna see dat EV number and swathes of blue. Thanks in advance. https://www.270towin.com/maps/G87dZ IMO this is the "best" possible outcome short of unrealistic wacky shenanigans. Biden clears 400 EC votes.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:08
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Something like this. Idk if that Maine district is competitive.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:10
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cheetah7071 posted:I got 4103 in 538's doohickey by turning every light blue state solid blue, and then continuing to do so as the model updates turned more states blue 4103 would be an excellent outcome
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Oct 28, 2020 01:11
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This is what happens when I hastily edit 410 to 413 when I realize DC isn't actually clickable in the map
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Oct 28, 2020 01:11
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britishbornandbread posted:Would anyone be generous enough to share with me/the thread a 538 map of the best possible outcome for Biden in terms of a landslide, based on optimism and the polls? Wanna see dat EV number and swathes of blue. Thanks in advance. I believe this is the best possible map based on giving Biden every state I've ever seen anyone mention as close: https://www.270towin.com/maps/WpPBx
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Oct 28, 2020 01:12
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Saint Celestine posted:https://www.270towin.com/maps/G87dZ I played around with this map and gave TX, FL, NC and PA to Trump. Biden still won 311-227. This is making me feel a lot better about next week. Is the real nail biter if we don't have a clear winner by midnight going into the 4th?
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Oct 28, 2020 01:12
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Bodyholes posted:
It's this, the only map where you can technically get all Democratic states touching.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:12
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JazzFlight posted:
Perhaps counterintuitively, the over-the-top kitsch is part of his populist appeal (and part of why the traditional elite tends to despise him), he's a poor man's idea of what a rich man is like. I'm reminded of the nouveaux riches in places like China, shamelessly overindulging in luxury and decadence without really 'getting' it.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:13
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It's crazy to me that, even in wave scenarios where it looks like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio are all reasonably possible democratic pickups, Indiana remains totally hosed and deep red. it wasn't that long ago where it was possible to win it!
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Oct 28, 2020 01:15
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Trump rallies are superspreader events where Trump on his best days rambles the same few lines that only appeal to his base, so I can imagine those aren’t big with most people.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:18
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britishbornandbread posted:Would anyone be generous enough to share with me/the thread a 538 map of the best possible outcome for Biden in terms of a landslide, based on optimism and the polls? Wanna see dat EV number and swathes of blue. Thanks in advance. This is currently what the map looks like if Biden wins everything he is at this moment projected to win by 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.co...,IN:1,WV:1,MO:1 Please note that there's like seven toss-ups in here.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:18
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