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GoutPatrol posted:It's this, the only map where you can technically get all Democratic states touching. Someone should do a road trip series going from Washington to Florida without touching red states if that happens.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:18
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Bodyholes posted:
Thing is, even if it turns out that way he'll point to the big red area in the middle and argue about how huge is the part of the country that loves him
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Oct 28, 2020 01:19
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Tails' damnable device here at least makes it clear why people were focusing on PA or FL. If Biden wins FL (or, interestingly, NC) his odds go over 99% - winning PA puts him at 97%. (PA + CO give him 98%.)
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Oct 28, 2020 01:21
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321242249456504834?s=19
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Oct 28, 2020 01:22
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eke out posted:It's crazy to me that, even in wave scenarios where it looks like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio are all reasonably possible democratic pickups, Indiana remains totally hosed and deep red. it wasn't that long ago where it was possible to win it! It was kinda a long time ago. 2008 went blue by 20,000 votes ish for Obama. I was living there when that happened and was helping with the Obama campaign at the time. I recall so many racists in my indiana adventures. Its an awful state with very little redeeming qualities.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:23
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Sodomy Hussein posted:This is currently what the map looks like if Biden wins everything he is at this moment projected to win by 538: That's fun. New game: start with a clean map, what's the highest Trump win percentage you can get by forcing only one state red Doing it the other way is easy, flip Montana blue and Biden shoots up to >99%
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Oct 28, 2020 01:26
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Good god Nate, we get it. Everyone is poo poo scared of a Trump win you don't need to keep tweeting about whatever tiny possibilities he has.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:26
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Nate Silver himself is now breaking the thread rules!
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Oct 28, 2020 01:28
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Yeah, this is just Nate doing that thing that kept creeping into my head where Biden gets REALLY close to winning NC/FL/GA but loses PA and then it gets much much tougher.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:31
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2008 goon: I am so tired of ohio being the only state that matters Finger on the monkey paw curls
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Oct 28, 2020 01:33
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Youth Decay posted:Good god Nate, we get it. Everyone is poo poo scared of a Trump win you don't need to keep tweeting about whatever tiny possibilities he has. A stable race is bad for 538's clicks. 
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Oct 28, 2020 01:37
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If you tell your doctor you have poll addiction, they should be allowed to put you into an induced coma for 1 week
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Oct 28, 2020 01:39
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Nate we know you are reading this thread please tell us how large a lead Biden would need in PA for you to deem it sufficiently comfortable
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Oct 28, 2020 01:39
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Biden’s lead isn’t quite comfortable in PA because Nate is knowingly allowing brazenly partisan polls to throw out garbage into the aggregate to screw with the average. He’s such a disingenuous little poo poo.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:39
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could this thread please be a little less pathetic about each time a professional election-discusser decides to discuss the state of the election
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Oct 28, 2020 01:41
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VitalSigns posted:That's fun. Michigan alone takes Trump to 88% - according to 538, it's the closest thing Biden's got to a must-win state. Interestingly, there are deeper blue states like CO and NM that you can flip to Trump that don't hit the Biden win percentage quite so hard. The model seems to have a bit of a regional domino effect going on, where losing Michigan means that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota also all tilt hard towards Trump. Also, Blu-tah wins out over Montana if you're willing to take projected EVs as the tiebreaker for flipping one state blue. Honestly, I'm not sure how they're getting to a >1.5% base chance of Biden taking Utah in the first place - it's probably just an artifact that comes from not having many good polls of the state.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:42
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Did you know that if Trump wins enough states, he can win?? Wow! -Nate silver, polls genius
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Oct 28, 2020 01:42
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Does Trafalgar publish top lines including the questions they ask?
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Oct 28, 2020 01:42
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Zwabu posted:Does Trafalgar publish top lines including the questions they ask? They did by accident a couple days ago and it was worse than expected. Other than that it’s secret.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:45
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Space Gopher posted:Michigan alone takes Trump to 88% - according to 538, it's the closest thing Biden's got to a must-win state. Interestingly, there are deeper blue states like CO and NM that you can flip to Trump that don't hit the Biden win percentage quite so hard. The model seems to have a bit of a regional domino effect going on, where losing Michigan means that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota also all tilt hard towards Trump. 538's correlations are super strong. So give Trump michigan and it shoots that high, bit give Biden Wisconsin and it drops back down quite a bit.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:45
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:They did by accident a couple days ago and it was worse than expected. Other than that it’s secret. They were basically push polling.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:47
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Peel posted:could this thread please be a little less pathetic about each time a professional election-discusser decides to discuss the state of the election The way I see it the problem is that his role as both he and his employers say and/or imply is to add some level of predictive value as to how the election will go so as to help people adequately prepare for the implications of the most likely outcome, sort of like some sort of financial analyst trying to predict stock trends on a given day, but Nate seems to be hedging a bit too much and its making the usefulness of his model questionable, because at a certain point if you hedge too much you basically aren't saying anything other than a "well, A could happen, but B could also happen" which is a useless tautology and not what people are looking for when they go to Nate It's true he's not supposed to be some sort of infallible prophet, but he should have better takes than the sort that anyone can get by asking their disengaged dad what they think the results will be
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Oct 28, 2020 01:47
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Peel posted:could this thread please be a little less pathetic about each time a professional election-discusser decides to discuss the state of the election
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Oct 28, 2020 01:47
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Glumwheels posted:They were basically push polling. That and insane cross tabs, like Biden with 25% of Republicans but Trump with 30% of Democrats
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Oct 28, 2020 01:48
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Nessus posted:Nothing is happening but we are being lavishly informed about it. Fivey the Fox torments our waking hours and haunts our dreams. If it wasn't for the context this would be the most insanely boring election in history. Every pundit is just trying to figure out how to stay on TV to keep us watching when reality we just need to loving vote. If there was a fast forward button to January 20th I'd press it.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:50
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brugroffil posted:That and insane cross tabs, like Biden with 25% of Republicans but Trump with 30% of Democrats They got lucky in 2016 because they found some Democrats who were just racist republicans. Those people probably switched to the party of trump now. I don’t think his methods will work again. Trafalgar is also dragging down RCP averages.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:51
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Gabriel S. posted:Every pundit is just trying to figure out how to stay on TV to keep us watching when reality we just need to loving vote. If there was a fast forward button to January 20th I'd press it. Trump wins the EC by one vote in your state because fast forwarding erased your vote
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Oct 28, 2020 01:51
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Anyway I'm pretty sure everyone is also very aware of a scenario where their posts ITT age like milk but gently caress it, the absolute best information we can possibly get regarding something so inherently unpredictable as human behavior is pointing to a Biden win
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Oct 28, 2020 01:52
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If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania I will eat a cold slice of anchovy pizza that's been in the fridge for a day
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Oct 28, 2020 01:54
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Manufacturing a horse race seems misguided to me as a goal. I feel like this country is ready to bathe in trumps blood come November 3rd and will eagerly click and share polls showing huge Biden leads.
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Oct 28, 2020 01:56
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Fojar38 posted:Anyway I'm pretty sure everyone is also very aware of a scenario where their posts ITT age like milk but gently caress it, the absolute best information we can possibly get regarding something so inherently unpredictable as human behavior is pointing to a Biden win This will be us next Tuesday, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcu7AdbNQYs
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Oct 28, 2020 02:01
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nachos posted:Manufacturing a horse race seems misguided to me as a goal. I feel like this country is ready to bathe in trumps blood come November 3rd and will eagerly click and share polls showing huge Biden leads. They will at first, but then they'll stop clicking before long, because what's there to worry about? Much better business model to keep people on the edge of their seats.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:02
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Peel posted:could this thread please be a little less pathetic about each time a professional election-discusser decides to discuss the state of the election Lol, yeah, this thread should definitely be more mature like the other thread and write elaborate fanfics about judicial coups, the Senate giving the green light to Right Wing Militia Death Squads, the Military backing Trump if he declares victory, and how even total victory is meaningless because the LIBS won't do anything with their power except fundraise off willingly self-inflicted defeats, all because of that bastard Aaron Sorkin ruining a generation.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:04
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We're going to be at like 80+ million votes before election day and a poo poo ton of data. November 2 is going to feel a lot different than October 27.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:07
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Space Gopher posted:Michigan alone takes Trump to 88% - according to 538, it's the closest thing Biden's got to a must-win state. Interestingly, there are deeper blue states like CO and NM that you can flip to Trump that don't hit the Biden win percentage quite so hard. The model seems to have a bit of a regional domino effect going on, where losing Michigan means that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota also all tilt hard towards Trump. Best single-state Biden flip I've got so far is Tennessee: 460.2 EV to Blutah's 414.8 And yeah can't do any better for Trump than Michigan so uhhhh hopefully it's called early for Biden next week
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Oct 28, 2020 02:07
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nachos posted:Manufacturing a horse race seems misguided to me as a goal. Majorian posted:They will at first, but then they'll stop clicking before long, because what's there to worry about? Much better business model to keep people on the edge of their seats. I think it is very strange of this thread to keep assuming Nate is doing this to manufacture traffic or something. You think he needs to manufacture traffic? Like people wouldn't be visiting 538 doing the Kylo Ren "more! MORE!" if Nate showed Biden up by 5 in Texas? When has Nate shown himself to be business savvy about literally anything? I agree that Nate tweets weird stream of consciousness hedging and odd hypotheticals. I find his punditry appalling. But his "hey, Trump winning is about as likely as this uncommon but not unheard of thing you see in poker" is a pretty good example of trying to explain probabilities by analogy to ordinary occurrences. And everyone in this thread going well now I don't like it regarding how he builds the model because they don't think it is showing Biden ahead up enough in a state that was off by 4+ points from the polls in 2016 and saying that it's because Nate's doing a clickbait are doing motivated reasoning to what they (and I too!) want desperately to be true.Look, I think polls can (and are) being gamed by unscrupulous actors. I think Nate's got logorrhea. And I think in this election you'd rather be Biden. But this thread doing "well that's just him doing hot takes for clicks" is driving me insane. It's way more delusional than people in USPOL looking at Kav's recent ruling and saying "gee, I think SCOTUS might be laying the groundwork for something." Petey fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 02:13
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I find Silver somewhat aggravating in his personal style. If I have a critique of his model it is that he keeps including Rasmussen and Trafalgar even if he apparently discounts them. This is probably a good bet, though, because there's (of course) three broad outcomes: 1. Trump wins (I include weirdass EC situations here) 2. Biden wins by an OK amount 3. Biden blows Trump out of the water 2. is the most likely possibility and will not make any gap between his model or, say, the electoral-vote.com "average of the last seven days and/or the last poll, only decent pollsters pls" board, all that clear. In the case of 3. he looks like he was the conservative one. In the case of 1. he is vindicated once more.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:17
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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321251414056849408
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Oct 28, 2020 02:20
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What do other demographic turnout rates look like on Miami dade right now
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Oct 28, 2020 02:22
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A model creator on twitter is just a pundit. You can and should ignore all pundit tweets.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:24
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