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Katana_Warrior posted:hell yeah
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Jan 1, 2021 07:54
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https://twitter.com/NathanFogg1/status/1344688368882507778?s=19
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Jan 1, 2021 07:56
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fancy stats are dumb just watch games and you'll figure out which players you need to be yelling at to do the thing and/or stop doing the thing
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Jan 1, 2021 07:59
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Harden getting traded to Denver and getting paired with Jokic might break some weird laws of physics.
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Jan 1, 2021 08:00
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ShallNoiseUpon posted:One thing that is very confusing to me and I'd wouldn't mind reading some sort of intro or primer to is the advanced stats stuff -- I get the counting stats, but some of these newfangled stats are real confusing You probably have archives, so I'd recommend this post from holy poo poo it's been ten years I am old: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3393398#post388705906
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Jan 1, 2021 08:23
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Let's visit today's installment of Small sample size theater: Domantas Sabonis is averaging 22.4/11/7.2/.8/.4 . This somehow trails Nikola Jokic in every category. Jokic is averaging 24.5/11.5/13.5/1.5/.8 . He's also shooting 62% from the field and 40% from deep. Totally sustainable production. (.....but what if it is?!)
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Jan 1, 2021 09:48
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Veryslightlymad posted:Let's visit today's installment of Small sample size theater: The part that's not sustainable for Jokic is playing over 38mpg. With JaMychal Green out and Bol Bol not yet an NBA player, their frontcourt rotation is pretty thin, and Murray missed the last game so it was all on Jokic. But there's no reason he can't continue his per-minute passing brilliance. He's just standing there and people are cutting to the basket.
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Jan 1, 2021 09:53
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I could see Jokic averaging like 20/9/11 on 55% shooting and %36-38 from 3. A triple double season isn't out of the picture.
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Jan 1, 2021 09:55
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I’ve started preparing myself for Clippers disappointment early this season and was thinking of the most Clippers way to blow it. This is what I’m predicting: The LA Clippers will go hard to prove themselves to everyone and end up with the #1 seed, but by the time the playoffs come around they are exhausted and nursing injuries. They then have to face the #8 seed LA Lakers, who have been cruising through the regular season, and the LA Clippers are eliminated in the first round, even earlier than last year. Red Rox fucked around with this message at 10:31 on Jan 1, 2021 |
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Jan 1, 2021 10:02
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Senator Drinksalot posted:I could see Jokic averaging like 20/9/11 on 55% shooting and %36-38 from 3. A triple double season isn't out of the picture. This feels very plausible. It's been a blast. Imagine the league heading toward a paradigm shift, where the tallest players run the offense, and the smaller guards score the easy points.
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Jan 1, 2021 10:04
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so imma say it Jokic is the LeBron other than LeBron
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Jan 1, 2021 11:44
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Since it’s the first day of 2021 in Australia I’m going to finally post in this thread after years of lurking. I love the NBA, LeBron, the Pelicans are my team/Memphis are my second (cause of Morant) and I hate the Warriors. 2016 finals were my second most satisfying sports moment after watching Brazil win the 94 World Cup when I was 11 years old and I don’t really understand offensive/defensive schemes in basketball. This thread is one of the best things on the internet.
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Jan 1, 2021 12:51
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i legit can’t make out how he flips it back, this is hurting my head and it’s too early in the morning
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Jan 1, 2021 13:06
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cardgame posted:Since it’s the first day of 2021 in Australia I’m going to finally post in this thread after years of lurking. Hello friend. Don't worry about your lack of knowledge, there are three acceptable posting archetypes here: people who know about basketball, people who don't know about basketball (this is me), and euphronius
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Jan 1, 2021 13:27
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Blazers. poo poo or legit?
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Jan 1, 2021 13:39
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MazelTovCocktail posted:The sub head isn’t much better. That is definitely a hung over and feeling kinda emotional type of sub. dokmo posted:Basketball stats nerds made modern basketball much better to watch, but these nerds also made talking about basketball worse. Very concise and accurate. Quizzlefish posted:Blazers. poo poo or legit? Gary Trent betting on himself for a career year. CJ looking smoother and buffer than ever. I like the addition of RoCo. Dame's looked not as good but it's still early. Would you bet 100k on them to win it all?
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Jan 1, 2021 14:17
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Quizzlefish posted:Blazers. poo poo or legit? They will definitely be in the mix come playoff time, a few bad injuries to other contenders and I could see them in the finals
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Jan 1, 2021 14:50
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cardgame posted:Since it’s the first day of 2021 in Australia I’m going to finally post in this thread after years of lurking. Yayy! Another Pels fan! Welcome! (I also love the Grizzlies. They are the only other team in this division that I don't hate with my complete heart and soul.)
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Jan 1, 2021 14:57
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Tobias Harris has had two (2) good games in a row!
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Jan 1, 2021 15:03
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Red Rox posted:I’ve started preparing myself for Clippers disappointment early this season and was thinking of the most Clippers way to blow it. This is what I’m predicting: Is this Cubs fan fiction in the NBA thread? Also let me just say it......Ladies and gentlemen.. THE ORLANDO!
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Jan 1, 2021 15:09
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Rick posted:Harden is playing which theoretically suggests he's not going anywhere but in recent years we've seen people get sat before trades less and less. It's just more and more likely he is an off season trade. To be traded mid-season i think the Rockets have to have one of the 6th worst records and at least 3 more Harden incidents. Obviously they want to keep him. To do that at mid-season they need to show him they are a playoff team and Wood,Wall and everyone else are playing well. To really want to break it up in a small sample size of two months it would really have to fall apart completely.
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Jan 1, 2021 15:16
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Kibner posted:Yayy! Another Pels fan! Welcome! I’ve always really enjoyed your posts Kibner. Why haven’t the pelicans offered Lonzo an extension? He always seemed to be good within certain parameters, now he just seems to be good! Makes more sense to me than Steven Adams and Zion?
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Jan 1, 2021 15:23
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cardgame posted:Since it’s the first day of 2021 in Australia I’m going to finally post in this thread after years of lurking. Welcome friend, you have impeccable taste
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Jan 1, 2021 15:49
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cardgame posted:I’ve always really enjoyed your posts Kibner. Why haven’t the pelicans offered Lonzo an extension? He always seemed to be good within certain parameters, now he just seems to be good! Makes more sense to me than Steven Adams and Zion? my guess is because they're just about capped out after the ingram deal and idk who is also a free agent next year for the pellies, but also lonzo didn't look very good in The Bubble so maybe they just want to give him one more year and see before committing VVV i somehow always forget about bird rights boxcarhobo fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Jan 1, 2021 |
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Jan 1, 2021 15:56
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cardgame posted:I’ve always really enjoyed your posts Kibner. Why haven’t the pelicans offered Lonzo an extension? He always seemed to be good within certain parameters, now he just seems to be good! Makes more sense to me than Steven Adams and Zion? Its too late to offer an extension now. They didn't need to offer anything and presumably Lonzo thinks he is going to have a season that will justify a max contract. Generally he hasn't really put up numbers that would justify that, but he's good enough that I don't think it's ridiculous for him to bet on himself. Next season he'll be a Restricted Free Agent, so New Orleans can match whatever offer. If they want to offer him a max contract next year for 4 years they can, so there isn't a lot of risk. He'll play for the Pelicans if they want to pay either way. boxcarhobo posted:my guess is because they're just about capped out after the ingram deal and idk who is also a free agent next year for the pellies, but also lonzo didn't look very good in The Bubble so maybe they just want to give him one more year and see before committing They'll have bird rights so they can go over the cap for Lonzo. And the extension won't kick in until next season anyway.
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Jan 1, 2021 16:01
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Every player should get a max deal, imo
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Jan 1, 2021 16:05
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kingcobweb posted:You probably have archives, so I'd recommend this post from holy poo poo it's been ten years I am old: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3393398#post388705906 This is an amazing post and should be reviewed for whys and whats. Here's a real quick breakdown of what stats you can look at on bbref and other places: Usage (USG): This is usually what you want to start with when you look at a player. It's basically what % of possessions end with the guy, usually by shooting a field goal. Average is 20%, real good players who have the offense revolve around them will be around 30%+, garbage men centers will be 12% or so. This is an important stat because it sets the context for everything else. True Shooting (TS%): This is also super important. It weights free throws in with 2p and 3p shots to give you an idea on what someone does with their shots. Basically multiply the number by 2 to give you an idea on points you get per shot by different players. Mid-50s is usually pretty decent, 60s+ is really good, especially with guys with high usage. It does estimate a bit around free throws but it's pretty accurate. Typically the more shots someone takes, the lower True Shooting as presumably they are taking more shots that are not easy. ORTG: Dokmo's explanation is great, but in general this is an all-in-one efficiency stat. It tries to combine offensive rebounding, turnovers, assists all that good stuff. It does NOT consider usage. So rim running centers who only take shots when they get bunnies at the rim have a high ORTG. DRTG: A defensive stat that relies heavily on team defense and things like rebounding (which is important defensively but can be misleading). Generally by itself it isn't super useful. Winshare/Winshare per 48: What'd I'd consider the best "All-in-One" stat. This uses ORTG, DRTG, and Usage to assign how many "wins" a player produces. Interestingly, it doesn't actually consider wins to get this! A cool side effect is that if you add up all the Winshares of players on a team, it tends to be real close to the teams wins! (The cheating here is it does use points for and against which also tracks closely to wins). Here is the winshare/48 averages of all players last season, you'll see if matches pretty close with how people would rate players (averaged to per 48 minutes) https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_advanced.html#advanced_stats::ws It sometimes loves certain guys more than it should (garbageman centers, guys who can't do anything other than catch and shoot), but its generally pretty good. PER: Hollingers "Player efficiency Rate", which does some cool stuff. However, despite Efficiency being in the name it is a lot better at measuring production. It favors guys who get the ball in the hoop a lot over guys who do it efficiently, which isn't always right but it tends to be a good companion to Winshare. It's averaged each season so 15 is always average (note: That is average by minute, not median. So there are way more guys under 15 than over. 15 is usually a decentish starter, 20 is a good starter 25+ is all star, 30+ is MVP candidate typically). It likes chuckers and guys putting up big numbers on bad teams a little too much. VORP: I don't know much about this one. It seems ok. It sometimes likes weird things so I kinda ignore it. Box plus/Minus BPM (and plus/minus in general):: In general be careful with +/- stats. BPM is pretty good but it can be influenced by things like coaching decisions, situational factors, etc. I tend to like +/- more for comparing guys on the same team. Game +/- shouldn't be used to say if a guy was good in a game, but it can tell you if they were on the floor when the game got away from the team. RPM: This is a weird ESPN thing but I think it's one of the better defensive stats with DRPM. This is using Box +/- but adjusting for a bunch of stuff (including, weirdly, height as it assumes centers have a bigger defensive impact both ways which is reasonable but means you include height in a stat). It also uses last seasons stats to give credit, which again makes some sense but is weird. This uses a lot of data so guys who play less than 28mpg or so get wacky numbers Here's last years which looks good if you ignore Theis and Shaq Harrison as top-30 players (because of minutes played) or Steph Curry who barely played last season. I bring this up because it did some cool things like start showing Giannis was a monster defender before people started talking about it, and point out guys who are really, really important to teams schemes. It's a weird stat though and a lot of context is needed. ----------- There's other stuff out there, but those are the big ones. BBRef explains a lot of the other stats and you can always ask if you find one you want to know more about.
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Jan 1, 2021 16:41
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Op or mod should put that in a paste bin and put it on the first page. Welcome lurkers. ball is mfing love. Zach lowe being paywalled is bumming me out. ESPN's web writing 8 years ago + free darko and hardwood paroxysm are what made me an all nba, rather than just detroit fan.
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Jan 1, 2021 16:46
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Happy New Year fellow fans of Ball.cardgame posted:This thread is one of the best things on the internet. I second.
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Jan 1, 2021 16:54
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Dejan Bimble posted:Op or mod should put that in a paste bin and put it on the first page. Welcome lurkers. ball is mfing love. I was distraught when I saw his yearly league pass team list was on espn+. I always liked reading that article.
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Jan 1, 2021 17:01
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cardgame posted:This thread is one of the best things on the internet. Man, it's true. I've been reading it for over a decade and nothing comes close.
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Jan 1, 2021 17:03
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kingcobweb posted:You probably have archives, so I'd recommend this post from holy poo poo it's been ten years I am old: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3393398#post388705906 Hell yeah this is a great post.
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Jan 1, 2021 17:05
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kingcobweb posted:You probably have archives, so I'd recommend this post from holy poo poo it's been ten years I am old: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3393398#post388705906 Jesus that was so long ago. Since then fans have become much more knowledgeable about these things and players are still just as unaware of the things that make them good.
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Jan 1, 2021 17:11
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man
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i should actually be working instead of lolling about kelly oubre https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaezDLCUPIQ
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Jan 1, 2021 17:58
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ShallNoiseUpon posted:I have been thinking about getting whole hog back into basketball for a few years now -- always been sort of Celtics fan, growing up in the region. Remember watching the 2008 run in college in awe and having a great time. Mostly just want to say hello and to hope you'll help this big dumb basketball newbie be less of a dingus along the way this year. I need another Celtics posting friend since CBM went on hiatus. I hope he's OK. e: Dokmo is Payton Prichard good? Because he looks good??? Like low ceiling but already a solid rotation player. Salvor_Hardin fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Jan 1, 2021 |
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Jan 1, 2021 18:09
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dokmo posted:i should actually be working instead of lolling about kelly oubre beautiful
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Jan 1, 2021 18:21
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I somehow don't have archives so would appreciate a quote or a pastebin type thing if it's really long
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Jan 1, 2021 18:24
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 The basketball-reference mvp tracker with early-season low sample sizes is my favorite thing.
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Jan 1, 2021 18:25
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big boi posted:I somehow don't have archives so would appreciate a quote or a pastebin type thing if it's really long no formatting and the links are probably all dead, but here: https://pastebin.com/vHUWZVZU
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Jan 1, 2021 18:30
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Idk that seems like a solid list
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Jan 1, 2021 18:31
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