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Zesty posted:Why is this a thing? Why is there a bullshit caveat which doesn't help anything? Cap & trade (which is basically what it is) has the benefit of restricting the bad behavior while incentivizing early movers to make the shift to good behavior while doing so is still difficult (in the case of EVs developing the technology and charging infrastructure and moving public opinion). The trick is to keep cranking down the cap
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Feb 2, 2021 05:32
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also there are hydrogen fueling stations all over california, that train is chugging along (and not destabilizing bolivia)
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Feb 2, 2021 13:31
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Elviscat posted:GM has said no ICE vehicles by 2035, Ford will probably be close behind how are engineers imagining that apartment dwellers and people who have free-for-all on-street parking are going to charge their electric vehicles
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Feb 3, 2021 20:58
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OMGVBFLOL posted:also there are hydrogen fueling stations all over california, that train is chugging along (and not destabilizing bolivia)
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Feb 3, 2021 21:03
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Hydrogen is the loving Magic that distracts from and smothers the Actual Machinery of battery electric vehicles.
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Feb 3, 2021 21:16
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The extent of hydrogen fueling infrastructure development in the US is literally one state with about 40 stations over the last... seven? eight years? I don't think that qualifies as a chugging train by any definition.
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Feb 3, 2021 21:17
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whatever happened to them graphite batteries
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Feb 3, 2021 21:19
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ChickenOfTomorrow posted:how are engineers imagining that apartment dwellers and people who have free-for-all on-street parking are going to charge their electric vehicles You got got legs, champ. If you power walk, you can make it home just in time to turn around and walk back to work.
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Feb 3, 2021 21:20
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ChickenOfTomorrow posted:how are engineers imagining that apartment dwellers and people who have free-for-all on-street parking are going to charge their electric vehicles DC fast charging infrastructure has ramped up alot, I'd imagine they're thinking that a combination of big batteries, DCFC, and employers providing charging spots for employees will bridge the gap until charging infrastructure is mandated on street and in apartment buildings, along with improvements in public transit in urban cores. Which seems reasonable since even if new ICE car sales are banned, you still have years of the used market covering demand, so this is all 20 years out.
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Feb 3, 2021 21:39
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ChickenOfTomorrow posted:how are engineers imagining that apartment dwellers and people who have free-for-all on-street parking are going to charge their electric vehicles I imagine it will go about as well as any other problem faced primarily by lower/disadvantaged classes, in that it will be almost entirely ignored and those effected will have to either continue using old petrol vehicles and/or put up with yet another inconvenience of trying to keep up with a society that’s determined to leave them behind.
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Feb 3, 2021 23:01
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ChickenOfTomorrow posted:how are engineers imagining that apartment dwellers and people who have free-for-all on-street parking are going to charge their electric vehicles By 2035 we probably won't have cars to park. I think the idea is that you'll have autonomous for hire vehicles picking you up by that point. Knowing how to drive in 2035 will be like knowing how to drive a stick shift in 2021.
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Feb 4, 2021 00:27
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Krispy Wafer posted:By 2035 we probably won't have cars to park. I think the idea is that you'll have autonomous for hire vehicles picking you up by that point. Knowing how to drive in 2035 will be like knowing how to drive a stick shift in 2021.
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Feb 4, 2021 00:32
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people will always drive cars, for there is no better way to display a sticker of Calvin pissing on things
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Feb 4, 2021 00:41
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Zesty posted:Why is this a thing? Why is there a bullshit caveat which doesn't help anything? To those companies it's basically identical to a tax. But all the money from the "tax" goes to producing electric cars instead of going into the generic government budget. Seems like a good setup to me. If you want a stronger effect then make the limits tighter and the prices bigger.
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Feb 4, 2021 00:52
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FlamingLiberal posted:That is what companies like Uber are hoping, but I am pretty pessimistic that something like that will be the case just 14 years from now, based on where the current tech is. Maybe. But if we go back 14 years everyone was using flip phones and social media was classmates.com. Now we're making new friends on Facebook and filming our buddies storming the Capitol on our pocket computers. The tech has issues, but they'll build out infrastructure to resolve a lot of those or stuff like Cadillac where Caddy's can communicate wirelessly with other nearby Caddy's. So we'll all end up with transponders like Star Wars and have to hope our old clearance codes still check out while visiting the Death Star.
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Feb 4, 2021 01:02
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Krispy Wafer posted:By 2035 we probably won't have cars to park. I think the idea is that you'll have autonomous for hire vehicles picking you up by that point. Knowing how to drive in 2035 will be like knowing how to drive a stick shift in 2021. This completely won't work for all but the most dense of urban areas. The problem of ending reliance on cars is complicated because the value of 'personal car on hand to get me anywhere' is necessary for huge swathes of the population even if the origin of the reasons is bullshit. Everything largely ignores the huge societal upheavals required to get from now to there.
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Feb 4, 2021 01:05
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FlamingLiberal posted:That is what companies like Uber are hoping, but I am pretty pessimistic that something like that will be the case just 14 years from now, based on where the current tech is. 1) Many people like having a car of their own, for various reasons both reasonable and unreasonable. And American car culture reenforces that constantly. Even if you grant that some people will still own their own cars in a fully-autonomous future, it'll take way more than 14 years for society to get to a place where not knowing how to drive is normal instead of something people see as a mark of irresponsibility(outside the few cities where most people can live without ever having to drive). This is partially because... 2) Old cars take a while to get out of circulation, so any sort of fully-autonomous vehicle technology revolution that somehow comes as quickly as techbros want it to will still take a very long time to percolate through society. I'd expect them to be a plaything of rich people well before average people could ever dream of affording one. 3) People who don't give a gently caress about Owning A Car are probably more willing to use mass transit, which reduces the use cases for Uber/etc in places with usable transit. And in places that are dense enough for mass transit, we should be pushing for it over swarms of autonomous cars for environmental, urban planning, and other reasons. I'm not naive enough to think there's zero place for AI taxis in the future, but a lot of the problems people claim they'd solve are really just reinventing the mass transit wheel. 4) Rural areas and many suburbs are completely built around the assumption that you, personally, have a car(or two, or three) in your driveway at this very second, and taxis are rare in those places for a reason. There would be a shitload of hurdles to shifting to a 'everyone gets from point A to point B with an autonomous car they hired on the fly' model in these areas, doubly so in the most remote areas. Is Farmer Cletus supposed to wait 50 minutes for a car to get to him from the nearest patch of civilization? 5) It'll take even longer if road infrastructure needs to change at all to accomodate autonomous cars. America is a huge country with a lot of roads, and many places have stingy budgets for this stuff. Look at how many municipalities delay fixing roads until they're literally falling apart, let alone updating them to modern needs. Unrealistic expectations mostly tied to forgetting that poor people and non-urban areas exist & that changing things about how people get from Point A to Point B is more complicated than clicking a 'ok, everyone is going to use this mode of transit now' button? 100% unsurprising for techbros.
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Feb 4, 2021 01:45
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Platystemon posted:Hydrogen is the loving Magic that distracts from and smothers the Actual Machinery of battery electric vehicles. doesn't something stop being loving Magic when Actual Machines are built and develop a long record of doing useful work https://www.actransit.org/zeb who knows which will end up being the most useful. my guess is they'll probably both exist in parallel, because there's no way any battery technology can recharge as fast as a tank of gas can be filled; the only way batteries can even come close is by swapping out. but they're both ultimately just ways of storing energy. one doesn't require poisonous mining in developing countries, but murdering the earth and the global poor hasn't stopped our need for cars yet so i don't expect it to anytime soon
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Feb 4, 2021 01:54
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Empty Sandwich posted:people will always drive cars, for there is no better way to display a sticker of Calvin pissing on things I'm sorry, do you not have a forehead?
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Feb 4, 2021 02:09
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Haifisch posted:3) People who don't give a gently caress about Owning A Car are probably more willing to use mass transit, which reduces the use cases for Uber/etc in places with usable transit. And in places that are dense enough for mass transit, we should be pushing for it over swarms of autonomous cars for environmental, urban planning, and other reasons. I'm not naive enough to think there's zero place for AI taxis in the future, but a lot of the problems people claim they'd solve are really just reinventing the mass transit wheel. The lack of mass transit options or areas being built around the assumption that you personally own and have ready access to a vehicle of your own can still be a big issue in major cities. To give an easy example, the whole Miami-Broward-Palm Beach area in South Florida is the 4th most densely populated part of the country, but barely 10% of the population uses public transportation, and that is almost entirely limited to parts of Miami itself. Public transportation is almost entirely based around buses, which do not operate nearly enough to provide consistent or easy access to most areas, with limited Tri-Rail service out East, and taxis are almost completely limited to airports and tourist heavy areas. Almost every city and neighborhood in the area have been built on the basis that people will have their own cars to get somewhere, so large and highly populated areas are reliant on their own transportation or ride sharing options. And to go off the previous discussion, there is currently almost zero infrastructure in place for anything other than conventionally powered cars. Trying to change all that stuff may not even happen in an area like this in 40 years, never mind 14. I can't imagine this is entirely unique either, both to Florida and other parts of the country. For a comparison, New York City is predictably the highest in regard to public transportation usage in the country, with nearly 70% of people using it to some extent, and that's a city with far more options in that regard as well (Buses, subways, trains, ferries, etc), in addition to stuff like taxis or ride sharing or whatever.
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Feb 4, 2021 02:13
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poors and rurals aren't really people though so of course they/we are not considered at all when the real smart folks talk about how people won't need cars in ten years
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Feb 4, 2021 03:31
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Karia posted:I'm sorry, do you not have a forehead? and cover my tattoos?
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Feb 4, 2021 04:19
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I think the biggest immediate hurdle is that these cars can’t make decisions correctly when a crash is about to occur, and they are also pretty much a slave to maps that are probably only going to be accurate some of the time because of roadwork, accidents, congestion, etc
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Feb 4, 2021 06:02
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fartknocker posted:The lack of mass transit options or areas being built around the assumption that you personally own and have ready access to a vehicle of your own can still be a big issue in major cities. To give an easy example, the whole Miami-Broward-Palm Beach area in South Florida is the 4th most densely populated part of the country, but barely 10% of the population uses public transportation, and that is almost entirely limited to parts of Miami itself. Public transportation is almost entirely based around buses, which do not operate nearly enough to provide consistent or easy access to most areas, with limited Tri-Rail service out East, and taxis are almost completely limited to airports and tourist heavy areas. Almost every city and neighborhood in the area have been built on the basis that people will have their own cars to get somewhere, so large and highly populated areas are reliant on their own transportation or ride sharing options. And to go off the previous discussion, there is currently almost zero infrastructure in place for anything other than conventionally powered cars. Trying to change all that stuff may not even happen in an area like this in 40 years, never mind 14. I can't imagine this is entirely unique either, both to Florida and other parts of the country. People never talk about South Philadelphia, a crazy dense area of ~200,000 people where the streets and houses were created before widespread adoption of the automobile, but now every household has one or two cars. So it's intensely dense packed rowhomes on tiny narrow streets with no large lots or garages but far more cars that can actually fit in the available street spots. The results are, predictably, stupid.
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Feb 4, 2021 06:20
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OMGVBFLOL posted:doesn't something stop being loving Magic when Actual Machines are built and develop a long record of doing useful work Nice post from 2005. The world's largest and best automaker has been working on hydrogen powered cars for almost two decades, they're limited to small areas of CA, a manchild techbro has sold more EVs than Toyota will ever sell hydrogen cars. Most of the problems with battery EVs have been solved, there's a huge push to reduce the amounts of Cobalt and other minerals that currently can't be ethically sourced. Whatsmore, hydrolysis of water is a hugely inefficient process compared to storing electricity in a battery, even before you consider the very real and essentially unsolvable problem of molecular leakage of H2, and that disparity in energy is much better spent shuttering coal and then other fossil fuel plants than it is cracking water apart, for a large part of the resultant energy to piss itself away into the atmosphere to recombine with O2. Hydrogen was my dream when I was younger, but it's dead, all but the last nails have been pounded through its coffin. It would take something like a Nuclear Renaissance in energy production to have it come close to the carbon expenditure of BEVs. Charging is already a solved problem, you can comfortably travel from one coast of the US to the other in a long-range EV, 20 minutes every 200 miles isn't a deal breaker. This situation can only improve with time.
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Feb 4, 2021 06:46
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Elviscat posted:Whatsmore, hydrolysis of water is a hugely inefficient process compared to storing electricity in a battery, even before you consider the very real and essentially unsolvable problem of molecular leakage of H2, and that disparity in energy is much better spent shuttering coal and then other fossil fuel plants than it is cracking water apart, for a large part of the resultant energy to piss itself away into the atmosphere to recombine with O2. IIRC most of the hydrogen for fuel cells actually comes from cracking natural gas into CO2 and H2, so modern fuel cells still directly require a fossil fuel.
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Feb 4, 2021 07:44
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Elviscat posted:Nice post from 2005. the manchild techbro in question didn't spend fifty years iteratively improving on rechargable battery technology, but samsung and others did. also, personal transportation isn't the only use case for motor vehicles, and 20 minutes every 200 miles is still an order of magnitude more downtime than 5 minutes every 500. for vehicles that are doing work, that might matter. or it might not. and besides all that, my point was simply that they are literally actual machines that perform as expected. the Loop is loving magic, hydrogen is just a technology that may not prove economically viable compared to alternatives
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Feb 4, 2021 07:47
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OMGVBFLOL posted:also, personal transportation isn't the only use case for motor vehicles, and 20 minutes every 200 miles is still an order of magnitude more downtime than 5 minutes every 500. for vehicles that are doing work, that might matter. or it might not. Why would downtime be the relevant metric? Unless it’s some weird case like a safety‐critical system with no redundancy (do not do this), surely the uptime ratio is what matters, point nine two in that example. Sure, it’s a shame it’s not earning revenue during the downtime, but it’s not an order of magnitude worse at earning revenue.
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Feb 4, 2021 08:04
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OMGVBFLOL posted:the manchild techbro in question didn't spend fifty years iteratively improving on rechargable battery technology, but samsung and others did. I didn't imply he did, there's a reason every major car company has a partnership with one of the new Big Three (LG, Panasonic, Samsung). I clearly laid out the reasons hydrogen is an economically (and environmentally) unviable technology, those "zero emissions" busses are anything but, and while CA is making huge strides to kill coal, which is awesome, that company you linked is going to be BEV bus only soon, because maintaining and operating an electrolysis cell is massively inefficient compared to charging a BEV, and both suck compared to Catenary powered buses, or hybrid catenery/battery buses. We'll se when it comes to heavy transport, but one technology is making inroads, the other is not. E: it's a solved problem, I am going to wake up tomorrow, and get in my car that is powered by 90% carbon emission free electricity, that same electricity will have charged my traction battery and warmed the cabin for me, and that's in a used BEV that cost $13k. I literally could not do the same for any reasonable amount of money for an H2 EV. Hydrogen is not somehow going to leapfrog from being uneconomical and unviable for passenger vehicles to powering OTR freight. Elviscat has a new favorite as of 08:17 on Feb 4, 2021 |
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Feb 4, 2021 08:04
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Platystemon posted:Why would downtime be the relevant metric? Unless it’s some weird case like a safety‐critical system with no redundancy (do not do this), surely the uptime ratio is what matters, point nine two in that example. Freight has deadlines, there’s a lot of stuff that has to be sent out by a certain time and arrive by a certain time or it ripples out and all sorts of things get jacked up.
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Feb 4, 2021 08:09
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Elviscat posted:both suck compared to Catenary powered buses that's definitely something we can agree on. trolleys good. trolleybusses acceptable
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Feb 4, 2021 08:21
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Elviscat posted:Charging is already a solved problem, you can comfortably travel from one coast of the US to the other in a long-range EV, 20 minutes every 200 miles isn't a deal breaker. This situation can only improve with time. I can imagine a sizable number people would hold off on switching until that ratio got a lot better, or closer to what normal cars can currently do. Going from a tank of gas giving you easily 400-500 miles to cutting that range in half (Or more) would be definitely be a dealbreaker to some people, even if they don’t necessarily need that range on a daily or regular basis. Plus some of the issues with transportation and freight others have mentioned. As you said, that is something that would improve over time, but that will definitely be a hurdle that needs to be cleared to get some people to switch over down the line.
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Feb 4, 2021 14:16
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Haifisch posted:That and the facts that: I'm more looking at outside contributing factors. Once the number of autonomous vehicles hit a certain tipping point then owning and driving your own car is going to get significantly more expensive. Fewer cars sold means new models will cost more and insurance rates will be a factor as meatbag driven vehicles constitute most accidents. A lot of people will still own cars, but car culture is going to change. There's already a weird trend where Zoomers are waiting longer to get their licenses and showing less enthusiasm for driving. That may change as they get older or it might not. I'm wrong often. I'm probably wrong about this. But I'm looking at it from an economics perspective and how cost/utilization is going to impact individuals. It's will get more expensive to drive your own automobile. Boomers and Gen-X love cars so much they'd pay the premium, but there won't be as many of them around in 2035. Zoomers and late model Millennials, who in 14 years will be the dominant consumers dictating trends, are the wildcard. 
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Feb 4, 2021 14:48
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ChickenOfTomorrow posted:how are engineers imagining that apartment dwellers and people who have free-for-all on-street parking are going to charge their electric vehicles Fast charging is already at the point where you can get an 80% charge in 20 minutes, and this will likely just get better with time.
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Feb 4, 2021 14:48
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fartknocker posted:I can imagine a sizable number people would hold off on switching until that ratio got a lot better, or closer to what normal cars can currently do. Going from a tank of gas giving you easily 400-500 miles to cutting that range in half (Or more) would be definitely be a dealbreaker to some people, even if they don’t necessarily need that range on a daily or regular basis. Plus some of the issues with transportation and freight others have mentioned. As you said, that is something that would improve over time, but that will definitely be a hurdle that needs to be cleared to get some people to switch over down the line. That's basically where I'm at. I'm (slowly) saving up to buy a new car and while I'd really love to go all electric it's just not viable for me. I live in an apartment complex so I don't have a garage to put a charging station in, and the only one I'm aware of in a 30+ mi radius is at a mall a few miles from my apartment. I could go there to charge, but I'd get like 1-2 hours max worth of charging at a time, and from what I understand of electric cars that won't get it anywhere close to full. In addition to the fact that I drive a lot for work and love taking road trips, it's just not an option for me right now. I do plan on getting a hybrid though, so at least it'll be better than getting another fully gas vehicle. Still, when I'm in need of another new car in 10-15 years, I'll revisit the fully electric options to see if they're an option for me then.
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Feb 4, 2021 15:27
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Soysaucebeast posted:That's basically where I'm at. I'm (slowly) saving up to buy a new car and while I'd really love to go all electric it's just not viable for me. I live in an apartment complex so I don't have a garage to put a charging station in, and the only one I'm aware of in a 30+ mi radius is at a mall a few miles from my apartment. I could go there to charge, but I'd get like 1-2 hours max worth of charging at a time, and from what I understand of electric cars that won't get it anywhere close to full. In addition to the fact that I drive a lot for work and love taking road trips, it's just not an option for me right now. I do plan on getting a hybrid though, so at least it'll be better than getting another fully gas vehicle. Still, when I'm in need of another new car in 10-15 years, I'll revisit the fully electric options to see if they're an option for me then. Almost exactly the same thing happened to me. I was looking for a new car in 2016 and while I really wanted something electric, it wasn't feasible for mostly the same reasons: I live in an apartment complex without a garage, there are only a handful of charging locations within my area and all of them would require a 15-20 minute drive to get to (Passing at minimum 5-6 gas stations). Before COVID, my commute to work was typically an hour each way, and this in Florida where having the a/c on is 100% required and would further sap battery life, so I'd likely have needed to charge it a lot more often than I got gas. I also was taking enough long trips (120-300 miles each way) that not being able to make it there without stopping to charge would be a pain in the rear end. And just like you, when I may start looking for a new car in 10-15 years, I'm hoping that the technology and infrastructure that supports them will have been more developed to make an all-electric viable for me, but particularly given how slowly the latter seems to take to spread, I can't say what options will work best that far down the line.
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Feb 4, 2021 15:45
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I think electric cars are pretty good and if I could afford one I would consider it, but probably ultimately stay with gas because one of the things I like to do is day trip and in some of my favorite places to go, the only places to charge are like people’s mobile homes and sitting outside someone’s house for an hour feels too weird. There are actually a lot of public charging places in central and Southern AZ but it has not spread past that.
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Feb 4, 2021 16:13
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Krispy Wafer posted:I'm more looking at outside contributing factors. Once the number of autonomous vehicles hit a certain tipping point then owning and driving your own car is going to get significantly more expensive. Fewer cars sold means new models will cost more and insurance rates will be a factor as meatbag driven vehicles constitute most accidents. A lot of people will still own cars, but car culture is going to change. There's already a weird trend where Zoomers are waiting longer to get their licenses and showing less enthusiasm for driving. That may change as they get older or it might not. Best to pay attention to how much of this is younger generations not having any money or secure work, and possibly having neglectful boomer parents who never gave them useful driving lessons and isolated them from any other opportunity to learn.
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Feb 4, 2021 16:37
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Best to pay attention to how much of this is younger generations not having any money or secure work, and possibly having neglectful boomer parents who never gave them useful driving lessons and isolated them from any other opportunity to learn. Zoomers getting their licenses later seems related to social media and technology more than anything else. Sociologists are still trying to figure out why it's occurring, but teenagers right now are hitting their various milestones of youth later than Gen-X's or Millennials (driving, losing their virginity, getting their first jobs, etc) in significant numbers. It makes it difficult to predict what they'll do as adults or if this trend is going to be even more pronounced for whatever the gently caress we call the children of Zoomers. Who know what industries these kids will destroy.
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Feb 4, 2021 17:19
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Krispy Wafer posted:Sociologists are still trying to figure out why it's occurring, but teenagers right now are hitting their various milestones of youth later than Gen-X's or Millennials (driving, losing their virginity, getting their first jobs, etc) in significant numbers. All those things require money which young people no longer have. Boom, mystery solved.
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Feb 4, 2021 17:24
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