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THE MAN GIVIN ME MY MONEY
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Mar 11, 2021 01:30
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Defenestrategy posted:The American Recovery Act 2009 was a 830b[10t today] stimulus package passed in January 09 and the ACA was signed March 2010. The democrats got murdered in the house losing 60 seats by November 2010, and would get thrown out of the senate during the next round of elections. It's not worth 10t today. We haven't added a digit to all prices in the last 12 years.
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Mar 11, 2021 01:33
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The child tax credits are where a lot of the real money is that n this bill. Say you’re a single parent with two kids who is not rich: 1. You got $2200 from stimulus 1 ($1200+$500*2) and $1800 from stimulus 2 ($600*3) for a total of $4000. 2. You get $4200 from stimulus 3, more than 1 and 2 combined ($1400*3). 3. This doesn’t take into account child care tax credits, which are huge as well. Focuses on children are where a whole lot of the 1.9T are tied up. Never mind the EITC and public agency support. So when you see a take about how the current bill gives less $ than Republican bill, need to note that for that to be true, the take has to be made by someone with no kids who earns too much to qualify for the EITC. And hey, some of this is confusing. I didn’t start to realize just how stacked this was in favor of childcare and money for parents/kids until it was very close to passage because it’s easier for news and online got takes to focus on the simplest tax situations like direct payments to folks without kids.
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Mar 11, 2021 01:49
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mlmp08 posted:The child tax credits are where a lot of the real money is that n this bill. "Earns too much for the EITC" is a very very low bar to clear. I worked a summer internship for five months in 2020. The pay for that plus my taxable survivor benefits gave me an income equivalent to working 5 days a week, 8 hours a day, at $9.13 an hour. I wasn't eligible for EITC.
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Mar 11, 2021 01:53
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boop the snoot posted:Kobe explains my mentality about this bill pretty well: This is not an empty quote. The job is not finished.
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Mar 11, 2021 01:55
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So what happens this fall when UI is running out and the population hasn't all gone back to work and there's still nowhere near enough jobs? If getting Manchin to play ball this time was tough what happens then? Tell people there's a really sweet infrastructure bill in the wings? We're still standing on the brink and this didn't change that, it just allowed us to take a couple steps back.
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Mar 11, 2021 01:56
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maffew buildings posted:So what happens this fall when UI is running out and the population hasn't all gone back to work and there's still nowhere near enough jobs? If getting Manchin to play ball this time was tough what happens then? Tell people there's a really sweet infrastructure bill in the wings? We're still standing on the brink and this didn't change that, it just allowed us to take a couple steps back. I think the gamble is that by that time most of adult America will be vaccinated, back to work and there will be an economic boom. Please note that this is not my personal assessment of where things will be.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:03
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maffew buildings posted:So what happens this fall when UI is running out and the population hasn't all gone back to work and there's still nowhere near enough jobs? If getting Manchin to play ball this time was tough what happens then? Tell people there's a really sweet infrastructure bill in the wings? We're still standing on the brink and this didn't change that, it just allowed us to take a couple steps back. It's not stepping back, its called taking a run-up
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Mar 11, 2021 02:13
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McNally posted:"Earns too much for the EITC" is a very very low bar to clear. I worked a summer internship for five months in 2020. The pay for that plus my taxable survivor benefits gave me an income equivalent to working 5 days a week, 8 hours a day, at $9.13 an hour. Yeah. The popular twitter framing is “trump gave more,” when that’s true for some notable but smaller segments. One of those segments it sucks a lot for is low income but not destitute people without kids who do not work in any of the public sectors funded by the bill. The current bull clearly prioritized child poverty over individuals with low income and without child dependents. So I get why lower income employed people without kids feel like they got little, because the lovely fact is that they did get rather little in direct payments. Other segments are more “meh,” in their complaints because it’s wealthy people with few or no kids who benefitted from Trump tax cuts and stimuluses more than stimulus aimed at children, the unemployed, and the working very poor. Or even for pretty average to well of people they are either ignorant of or ingoring child care tax credits, separate from child direct payments.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:14
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When talking about the midterms, there's three major factors to consider: -What are the Democrats going to do to motivate their voters? -What are the Republicans going to do to motivate their voters? -How are election laws going to get hosed with to lean one side or the other? The last point is, by far, the most important. If absolutely no laws change between now and November 2022, the Republicans will hold a massive advantage through redistricting alone—Texas and Florida alone could potentially flip the House, thanks to both their Republican-dominated state governments and the high chance both states will be adding more seats at the expense of blue or purple states like California and Michigan. But of course, laws are going to change—Republican legislators in states across the country are already doing their best to restrict voting rights and suppress Democratic voters. The biggest and best thing the Democrats can do to prevent this from happening is, as we all know, HR 1. The bill has a ton of provisions to protect voting rights, including banning partisan gerrymandering (The effects of which can be experienced through this fun tool from 538). This is the top priority—if the Democrats don't pass HR 1, it won't matter if anyone got checks. Enough districts will become so blatantly gerrymandered that the Republicans will effectively win the House by default, much as they did in 2012. So the question becomes: How likely is it that HR 1 becomes law? It's already through the House, and the 2019 Senate version had universal support among Democrats. But to get through the Senate, it has to get through the filibuster, and there's no way of getting any Republican votes. Amazingly, there is good news here, as eternal roadblock Joe Manchin recently stated he'd be open to making the filibuster "more painful" to use. This is obviously huge, as the most likely proposed changes (Restoring the "talking filibuster," changing the margin on cloture votes from "needs 60 to pass" to "needs 41 to fail") would prevent legislation from being held up indefinitely as it is now. This would also allow a wide variety of other Democratic priorities to finally sail through, but HR 1 will unquestionably be the most important legislation they can pass this Congress, by far. So that's what the Democrats need to do to have a chance. So what to they need to do to win? Historically, the President's party loses seats during an election. This makes sense—many voters are more motivated by the idea of voting for change rather than the status quo, and Americans are insane in their love for divided government and the idea of bipartisanship. Presidential elections also have strong downticket effects, bringing in voters who are happy to vote for the President and their party, but might not have any interest in returning for the midterms. As a result, over the past 100 years, only two presidential administrations have avoided losing seats in the House in a midterm election: FDR in 1934, and George Bush in 2002. Everyone else—Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, even Ronald Reagan—lost by a minimum of 4 seats. In 2022, Republicans need 5 to flip the chamber. Fortunately for the Democrats, they are in a potential 1934 position. Much like the Republicans were damaged by three years of the Depression under Hoover, the Republicans today are still closely tied to Trump and his handling of the pandemic. And while Biden was unable to secure nearly the same kind of mandate that Roosevelt did, he still has the opportunity to own the recovery and kickstart the economy through the stimulus and future spending and reform bills (Particularly a massive infrastructure bill and a minimum wage increase). Unsurprisingly, passing policies that people like is pretty drat popular, and the more Biden can do that, the better chance the Democrats have of surviving 2022 with their majority intact—but as I said before, that's also heavily predicated on what happens to the filibuster, and when. On the Republican side, their strategy is going to be the same as 2009-10: obstruct the Democrats and prevent them from passing legislation, blame them for the dysfunction, and focus on the unpopular parts of bills to generate (or astroturf) grassroots support. However, unlike 2009, the Republicans face a significant obstacle: Themselves. Five months now after Trump's defeat the Republican party is still split between Trumpist racism/populism and their traditional fiscal conservatism, and it's prevented them from forming a coherent response to Biden's agenda. At this point in 2009, for instance, Republicans were unified and disciplined in their vocal opposition of the stimulus—arguing that it was both too big and a waste of taxpayer dollars. They were able to get both Democrats and the media to buy into their arguments, successfully lowering the stimulus to a level where it would become less effective, voting against it anyway, and immediately campaigning against it. But right now in 2021, the Republican arguments are splintered—you have some, like Collins, crying about the lack of bipartisanship, you have others praising parts of the bill that they voted against, and you've got utter dipshits like Kevin McCarthy wasting airtime whining about loving Dr. Seuss and the Muppets. And as Dave Weigel noted, by this point in 2009, the Tea Party had already formed and begun staging rallies. This isn't to say that the Republicans aren't going to get their poo poo together, of course—but every day they fail to get their poo poo together is a day closer to the election that they've lost. There's also one other fundamental problem with the Republican playbook: 2021 is not 2009, and Biden's agenda is not Obama's. In 2009 the attitudes of the country and the Democratic Party were much more conservative, and the Republicans were able to exploit divisions over some of the biggest parts of Obama's agenda. Healthcare especially proved to be utterly toxic, with many Democratic members of the house voting for it even as they knew it would cost them reelection (And some democrats, like this individual no one has ever heard of, explicitly running against it). But in 2021, fears over government takeovers and big spending have dissipated to the point that the single most conservative member of the Democratic caucus has advocated for a four trillion dollar infrastructure bill funded by tax increases. People want the government to spend money, nobody gives a poo poo about deficits, and the Republicans simply have less to run on against the Democrats (Since, as it turns out, opposing literally every popular proposal for the past decade and a half has given the Democrats a lot of room to enact a lot of broadly popular proposals!). So, the Dems have some advantages, and the Republicans disadvantages compared to 2009-10. But no matter how many advantages the Dems have, 2022 is going to be tough. They need to pass good legislation that's broadly appealing and takes effect quickly, and they need to make everyone understand that voting for Republicans means the well of federal spending is going to be cut off. And most importantly, they need to pass HR 1: Because if they don't, they lose. No alternative.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:41
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I'm not really getting the constant focus on the checks from this thread. That's one of the least impactful things in the bill. UI insurance extension is huge. 25 billion for rental assistance. My town is no longer going to have to lay off 10% of it's teachers because there is 54 billion for schools. The transit system in my metro area is no longer going to be in a death spiral cause of the 45 billion for transit. 325 billion for small businesses like the gym across the street from me that was about to close its doors or the downtown restaurants which are teetering. A 10 billion dollar bailout for the postal service. There are a pile of working class folks whose jobs are a lot more secure now, on top of the support for folks who are already hurting. But but but my checks! And the democrats suck!
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Mar 11, 2021 02:41
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Everyone just seems to be at each other's throats  Let's have a drum circle
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Mar 11, 2021 02:47
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Acebuckeye13 posted:When talking about the midterms, there's three major factors to consider: Sir, this is a Wendy’s
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Mar 11, 2021 02:48
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wins32767 posted:I'm not really getting the constant focus on the checks from this thread. That's one of the least impactful things in the bill. UI insurance extension is huge. 25 billion for rental assistance. My town is no longer going to have to lay off 10% of it's teachers because there is 54 billion for schools. The transit system in my metro area is no longer going to be in a death spiral cause of the 45 billion for transit. 325 billion for small businesses like the gym across the street from me that was about to close its doors or the downtown restaurants which are teetering. A 10 billion dollar bailout for the postal service. There are a pile of working class folks whose jobs are a lot more secure now, on top of the support for folks who are already hurting. If I'm not mistaken, the largest single portion of the money is tax credits for parents. There's probably a lot of childless people on these forums who may be salty about that.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:48
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pmchem posted:Sir, this is a Wendy’s My mistake, you still got those spicy chicken nuggets?
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Mar 11, 2021 02:50
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https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1369826373800521729?s=20 Well.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:51
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mlmp08 posted:The child tax credits are where a lot of the real money is that n this bill. Also the child tax credit is going to be paid in advance in installments so parents will start getting IRS checks/deposits this summer.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:51
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:If I'm not mistaken, the largest single portion of the money is tax credits for parents. There's probably a lot of childless people on these forums who may be salty about that. It's hard for me to wrap my head around people who aren't seeing the largest spending bill in US history as something other than a tremendous good for the country and its citizens.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:53
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wins32767 posted:I'm not really getting the constant focus on the checks from this thread. That's one of the least impactful things in the bill. UI insurance extension is huge. 25 billion for rental assistance. My town is no longer going to have to lay off 10% of it's teachers because there is 54 billion for schools. The transit system in my metro area is no longer going to be in a death spiral cause of the 45 billion for transit. 325 billion for small businesses like the gym across the street from me that was about to close its doors or the downtown restaurants which are teetering. A 10 billion dollar bailout for the postal service. There are a pile of working class folks whose jobs are a lot more secure now, on top of the support for folks who are already hurting. I never qualified for unemployment the whole year I was unemployed because I graduated from school. The only governmental assistance I'll be receiving is that check. It makes a real difference to me whether or not I get it.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:56
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UP THE BUM NO BABY posted:I never qualified for unemployment the whole year I was unemployed because I graduated from school. The only governmental assistance I'll be receiving is that check. It makes a real difference to me whether or not I get it. That's fair.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:57
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wins32767 posted:I won't get a cent from this bill directly (because I don't need it) and I'm ecstatic that my community is going to be a lot healthier now that it would have been absent this bill. When I take the train home, work out at my gym and then go out to eat at my favorite restaurant in a few months, I'm going to be getting my payout. Can't argue with that. No checks or tax credits here, but this is the largest redistribution of income downwards since ... well, probably ever in US policy decisions. While this isn't the fundamental redistributive change the US needs, it's hard to see why anyone would argue against the recovery act other than it didn't go far enough.
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Mar 11, 2021 02:59
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For those who haven't had the... pleasure of dealing with unemployment systems in recent years yourselves, Jon Oliver had a decent video on some of the many, many issues they have: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm9YKT0dItk And as a personal anecdote, I've been calling Arizona unemployment several times a week for the past four months to try and figure out what the gently caress is going on. It's exciting, because they give you a different answer each time! 
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Mar 11, 2021 03:00
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wins32767 posted:That's fair. I'm glad my outrage meets your approval. Lol try not to get too passionate in the future though
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Mar 11, 2021 03:00
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Everyone just seems to be at each other's throats https://i.imgur.com/4s7OZ3b.mp4 https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1369812041742098436 He forgot to say "bad things" in the sentence.
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Mar 11, 2021 03:03
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thread's cooler when we aren't dicks to each other imo
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Mar 11, 2021 03:03
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Acebuckeye13 posted:When talking about the midterms, there's three major factors to consider: IF the Dems slam dunk a modern FDR and win in the midterms I will loving celebrate and go find a job contracting for that 4 trillll Here's hoping Hope is a lie But really if they get a young dem socialist elected in 2024 I'd be hopeful for a non fascist America, otherwise it looks pretty grim
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Mar 11, 2021 03:05
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Hey, that's Brother Jed's wife isn't it?
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Mar 11, 2021 03:08
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UP THE BUM NO BABY posted:I'm glad my outrage meets your approval. Lol try not to get too passionate in the future though Don't get ahead of yourself. Outrage never meets my approval, I'm a liberal after all. But you did have a good point that made me reconsider.
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Mar 11, 2021 03:09
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Lookit this lady who's never heard of pork butts or hot dogs.
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Mar 11, 2021 03:12
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https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1369795926248759296?s=20 Palette cleanser of a sad Florida man
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Mar 11, 2021 03:20
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Nick Soapdish posted:https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1369795926248759296?s=20 this is impossible to read what the gently caress like worse than normal
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Mar 11, 2021 03:31
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Is he still allowed to use that seal?
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Mar 11, 2021 03:32
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Thwomp posted:Is he still allowed to use that seal? When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.
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Mar 11, 2021 03:33
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Thwomp posted:Is he still allowed to use that seal? That's not the actual Presidential seal.
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Mar 11, 2021 03:33
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It's awesome how trump has become an even more flanderized version of himself because of the media feedback loop of the last 4 years
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Mar 11, 2021 03:34
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Stultus Maximus posted:That's not the actual Presidential seal. 
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Mar 11, 2021 03:35
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For anyone who missed out on the last round of checks or wants another one, there's still time to qualify: https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1369727698566852608?s=20
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Mar 11, 2021 03:40
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Acebuckeye13 posted:For anyone who missed out on the last round of checks or wants another one, there's still time to qualify: “Honey, it’s time to do your duty for the party.”
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Mar 11, 2021 03:42
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Acebuckeye13 posted:For anyone who missed out on the last round of checks or wants another one, there's still time to qualify:
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Mar 11, 2021 03:49
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Hey, how the gently caress does gerrymandering work?
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Mar 11, 2021 04:45
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