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Leafs not at all ready for that stretch pass, jeez
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Apr 8, 2021 02:16
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better but still dogshit
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Apr 8, 2021 02:16
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I am interested in the xG for that period because the Habs took a million shots but it felt like most of them were from as far away as possible
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Apr 8, 2021 02:18
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I'm just hoping everyone is having fun.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:20
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Koopa Kid posted:I am interested in the xG for that period because the Habs took a million shots but it felt like most of them were from as far away as possible http://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2020020622 Montreal made up ground on a couple of decent chances, but yeah, whole lotta nothing shots from distance.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:27
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Koopa Kid posted:I am interested in the xG for that period because the Habs took a million shots but it felt like most of them were from as far away as possible Natural stat has the 5v5 numbers as 17 shots to 4 for Montreal. Chances 14 also for Mon and high danger edged 2-1 by Toronto. xG has was 70/30 for Montreal in their model assigning a .35 vs .75 expected goal outcome. The game is nearly evens by Nat Stats numbers with the Leafs creating 5 high dangers and giving up 0 with regular chances being 13 to 2 also in Toronto's favor. Hopefully that provides the context you were looking for 
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Apr 8, 2021 02:34
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Lol!
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Apr 8, 2021 02:37
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 beautiful deflection play
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Apr 8, 2021 02:37
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Neat a goal
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Apr 8, 2021 02:37
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Natural stat has the 5v5 numbers as 17 shots to 4 for Montreal. Chances 14 also for Mon and high danger edged 2-1 by Toronto. xG has was 70/30 for Montreal in their model assigning a .35 vs .75 expected goal outcome. The game is nearly evens by Nat Stats numbers with the Leafs creating 5 high dangers and giving up 0 with regular chances being 13 to 2 also in Toronto's favor. Hopefully that provides the context you were looking for tyvm, yeah seems like an obvious edge MTL (as you'd expect) but a whole lotta nothing overall for the period Also hurray for a totally intentional play! 
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Apr 8, 2021 02:38
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Mete totally kicked that towards Brodie
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Apr 8, 2021 02:38
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Good on tj but way to make it hard on yourself. You had an entire half of the bed and you stuffed it into the pads lol.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:39
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Really need the Leafs to start cashing in on the actual good opportunities they manufacture
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Apr 8, 2021 02:40
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Brody I appreciate you
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Apr 8, 2021 02:40
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Leafs woke up
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Apr 8, 2021 02:40
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I can easily believe the habs losing in regulation but the true habs defeat would be in the first two minutes of OT
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Apr 8, 2021 02:41
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Koopa Kid posted:tyvm, yeah seems like an obvious edge MTL (as you'd expect) but a whole lotta nothing overall for the period Yeah and kinda get to see different models at work between Nat Stat and the moneypuck one. I didn't watch a ton since it was bed time for the little one, but it seemed like Montreal got a bunch of those sort of low/mid danger chances where you're looking at like a 5 to 8.5-10% conversion rate vs the high dangers which are 15-20%ish. Which is reflected in both models but somewhat differently.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:43
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Man the Matthews line just has zero interest in defending against the cycle
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Apr 8, 2021 02:43
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Omg...
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Apr 8, 2021 02:43
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Tavares' line doing everything but score. Galchenyuk's flying.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:48
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Yeah and kinda get to see different models at work between Nat Stat and the moneypuck one. I didn't watch a ton since it was bed time for the little one, but it seemed like Montreal got a bunch of those sort of low/mid danger chances where you're looking at like a 5 to 8.5-10% conversion rate vs the high dangers which are 15-20%ish. Yeah I'd need to go back and watch somehow but I have a hard time fully reconciling model numbers from game events because a chance =/= a SOG necessarily and there's a certain amount of fuzz around how attempts and their states (off a pass/rebound for instance) are determined. I know broadcasts tend to make point play + crash the net stuff sound more dangerous than it is too which is why I ask because the period sounded exciting but my eyes disagree, but a model that loves, like, flurry chances would probably have a different opinion.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:48
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Well that was nice
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Apr 8, 2021 02:49
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zack supremacy
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Apr 8, 2021 02:49
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Hyman breaks it open!
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Apr 8, 2021 02:49
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MoaM posted:Leafs woke up
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Apr 8, 2021 02:49
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this montreal team isn't scoring two more here
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Apr 8, 2021 02:50
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I don't know what a penalty is anymore but I do know a lot of Habs are hitting the ice along the Leafs boards somehow
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Apr 8, 2021 02:51
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Hyman gets a lucky bounce
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Apr 8, 2021 02:51
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haha well speak of the devil because the slowest trip on the slowest 2 on 1 is clearly a penalty
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Apr 8, 2021 02:52
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woof, I don't remember the last time Avs were down by 3 at the end of the first period. I don't think they're gonna win this one 
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Apr 8, 2021 02:52
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Aces High posted:woof, I don't remember the last time Avs were down by 3 at the end of the first period. I don't think they're gonna win this one Wow, that score changed fast
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Apr 8, 2021 02:53
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Koopa Kid posted:I don't know what a penalty is anymore but I do know a lot of Habs are hitting the ice along the Leafs boards somehow buncha scoundrels
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Apr 8, 2021 02:54
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The gently caress is wrong with Tavares? He hurt or just get all bad?
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Apr 8, 2021 02:54
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Koopa Kid posted:Yeah I'd need to go back and watch somehow but I have a hard time fully reconciling model numbers from game events because a chance =/= a SOG necessarily and there's a certain amount of fuzz around how attempts and their states (off a pass/rebound for instance) are determined. I know broadcasts tend to make point play + crash the net stuff sound more dangerous than it is too which is why I ask because the period sounded exciting but my eyes disagree, but a model that loves, like, flurry chances would probably have a different opinion. Oh yeah. Usually when I make my big dumb posts about it I try to use multiple sources, but for basic mid-game stuff whatever and it's much more about the ratio instead of absolute numbers. Understanding the bias of specific models is also super helpful, as you mention .
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Apr 8, 2021 02:55
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I'm guessing the whole Islanders taunting thing five decades ago tilted him permanently
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Apr 8, 2021 02:56
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Cocaine Bear posted:The gently caress is wrong with Tavares? He hurt or just get all bad? imo he broke his hand last year and his shot never came back Moneypuck has him at -6 goals above expected and one of the unluckiest shooters in the league by true talent, but I think it’s possible that he’s a little busted. His lack of foot speed is more of an issue now too, he struggles to find space and time. Tavares not being able to cash in on glorious chances is a big part of why the Leafs lost to Columbus last year.
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Apr 8, 2021 02:57
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That sure was a Perry-rear end goal.
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Apr 8, 2021 03:03
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Lol gently caress corey perry
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Apr 8, 2021 03:03
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Leafs really gotta work on this non-5v5 thing.
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Apr 8, 2021 03:03
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gently caress corey perry
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Apr 8, 2021 03:03
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