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Lol, Canucks traded Jordie Benn for less than a bag of pucks (6th round pick)
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Apr 12, 2021 22:11
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eXXon posted:Well if the absolute numbers are scaled arbitrarily then the deltas are also only meaningful relative to other deltas, but fine. As for the rest it's weird to see such a huge disparity between ratios on three different sites ostensibly measuring the same thing, but oh well. I guess the way I view it is that each model awards and then weights chances differently. For a sport like hockey this of course becomes incredibly subjective very very quickly where as in soccer it is much easier to nail down semi-accurate totals via xG. With that said it isn't that the scaling is arbitrary, but more about how each model awards and then weights given chances. If all 3 sites give a 'chance' but Hockey Ref assigns it as a 3-6% conversion chance (low danger but better than the 3% and below unscreened floaty wrister from the point), Evolving gives a mid--danger of 7 to 10%, and Natural puts it down as a high danger with conversion rate of 10-20%. All of this interpretation and weighting is going to throw up a lot of variation site to site and model to model. But, if the particular site/model is consistent in its award of chances and the weighting in every game then there can be useful stuff to compare and that's why I say look at the ratios and spreads. Regardless of model Tampa over performs by varying amounts. Why? Well they are getting some of the best goaltending in those situations (which is born out in all 3 models just differing ways and amounts). Which then you run into the question of if it's sustainable and is this team due a regression or is it a product of other things the model isn't/can't account for.
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Apr 12, 2021 22:46
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Pretty pleased with that return for Bennett
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Apr 12, 2021 23:03
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ImplicitAssembler posted:Lol, Canucks traded Jordie Benn for less than a bag of pucks (6th round pick) Winnipeg over paid.
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Apr 12, 2021 23:07
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I am very excited we let Jim run another trade deadline. By getting rid of dead weight like Gaudette hes finally getting to put his own stamp on the Canucks. Someone save us.
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Apr 12, 2021 23:12
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rex rabidorum vires posted:I guess the way I view it is that each model awards and then weights chances differently. For a sport like hockey this of course becomes incredibly subjective very very quickly where as in soccer it is much easier to nail down semi-accurate totals via xG. With that said it isn't that the scaling is arbitrary, but more about how each model awards and then weights given chances. If all 3 sites give a 'chance' but Hockey Ref assigns it as a 3-6% conversion chance (low danger but better than the 3% and below unscreened floaty wrister from the point), Evolving gives a mid--danger of 7 to 10%, and Natural puts it down as a high danger with conversion rate of 10-20%. All of this interpretation and weighting is going to throw up a lot of variation site to site and model to model. But, if the particular site/model is consistent in its award of chances and the weighting in every game then there can be useful stuff to compare and that's why I say look at the ratios and spreads. I thought they were all weighting scoring chances by on-ice shot position and nothing else. Surely those are then based of actual league-wide conversion probabilities for shots at that position? Yes, you could get slightly different answers depending on how you aggregate but even the most naive way I could think of doing should give reasonable absolute xGF/xGA, not off by a factor of two. This is more or less the same as how I was arguing a while ago about some chart with GSAA or something similar that showed 90% of the goalies in the league performing below expectations and Lundqvist being the only good goalie. The charts in this article are at least sensible in that the mode of GSAA is close to zero every season (i.e. the average goalie is average).
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Apr 12, 2021 23:41
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Man I would have been over the moon if the Penguins had gotten Vrana given what the price tag eventually was, but probably the Caps don't want to even talk to the Penguins plus they're probably punishing Vrana for his insolence by banishing him to Detroit.
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Apr 12, 2021 23:47
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I don't understand much about Advanced stats, but for as well-regarded as he was, Lundqvist was probably the most underrated goalie in the league when he played. It's pretty much impossible to overstate how much of the Rangers post-lockout success was because of him. Even last year, undoubtedly an off for him, he was still top 5 in GSAA before Igoe came over. If he lands on Chicago, Detroit, or Pittsburgh I honestly believe he would be considered better than Brodeur.
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Apr 12, 2021 23:50
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https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1381741716693213185
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Apr 12, 2021 23:53
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This is very funny, in so many ways. Trump racist in Quebec is a very funny situation.
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Apr 12, 2021 23:54
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Like hell he's going to go live in Quebec with those fuckin' [string of slurs against French Canadians, and probably also French people since DeAngelo doesn't know the difference]
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Apr 12, 2021 23:55
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AsInHowe posted:This is very funny, in so many ways. Trump racist in Quebec is a very funny situation. He would have fit right in with all the other Quebec racists!
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Apr 12, 2021 23:56
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PART ONE OF TONY D IN MONTREALEric the Mauve posted:Like hell he's going to go live in Quebec with those fuckin' [string of slurs against French Canadians, and probably also French people since DeAngelo doesn't know the difference] THE HEARTWARMING CONCLUSION TO TONY D IN MONTREAL Arivia posted:He would have fit right in with all the other Quebec racists!
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Apr 12, 2021 23:59
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 I think this sums it up perfectly.
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Apr 13, 2021 00:00
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eXXon posted:I thought they were all weighting scoring chances by on-ice shot position and nothing else. Surely those are then based of actual league-wide conversion probabilities for shots at that position? Maybe probably idk. I've never done a ton of digging into the various free and basic models that I use. If they're pulling from different data sources the model could be exactly the same and spit out different calculations. Say NHL vs OPTA or some such.
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Apr 13, 2021 00:16
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Cartoon Man posted:
Only in the sense that the fanbase doesn't speak with one voice. I feel like the only thing I've posted about in GDTs has been "why aren't they playing Vrana more?" Will be curious to see how the line combos shake out. Ovi - Kuzy - Wilson Sheary - Backstrom - Mantha Raffl - Eller - Oshie Hagelin - Dowd - Hathaway That actually doesn't look too bad. Who knows if any of the lines besides the 4th will play defense though.
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Apr 13, 2021 01:08
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Patrik Laine has goals in back-to-back games and Max Domi has primary assists on both. Maybe all they needed to remember how to play hockey well was each other? 
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Apr 13, 2021 01:14
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https://twitter.com/unfortunatehky/status/1381748611772522504?s=21 I wonder if he sold his Bills gear on the way out of town?
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Apr 13, 2021 01:15
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El Gallinero Gros posted:Pretty pleased with that return for Bennett Former 4OA pedigree goes a loooong way apparently. That pick and his inability to do a pullup or be a competent top 2 centre really hosed up the rebuild.
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Apr 13, 2021 01:46
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Misanthrope posted:Former 4OA pedigree goes a loooong way apparently. He had some good fights tho.
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Apr 13, 2021 01:58
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Blackbelt Bobman posted:https://twitter.com/unfortunatehky/status/1381748611772522504?s=21 Josh Allen jerseys are deeply backordered as of Christmas, he could made some cash that way.
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Apr 13, 2021 02:00
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https://russianmachineneverbreaks.c...ved-on-from-it/ Caps GMs statement on Vrana. Did not want to be coached, at least by Laviolette so they moved on.
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Apr 13, 2021 02:23
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https://twitter.com/AlisonL/status/1381780833200181250 Nikolai Zherdev approves. e- https://twitter.com/BlueJacketsNHL/status/1381780778519031810 CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Apr 13, 2021 |
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Apr 13, 2021 02:27
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Max Domi carrying on the good family name: https://twitter.com/TheHockeyNews/status/1381782695131381760
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Apr 13, 2021 02:45
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And on that note Chicago goes 6-2-0 against Columbus this year making them worth more than 25% of the teams points and probably the only reason the teams arent flipped in the standings. Thanks Torts.
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Apr 13, 2021 02:47
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If there is one thing a Domi despises, it is a fair fight.
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Apr 13, 2021 02:48
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Eric the Mauve posted:If there is one thing a Domi despises, it is a fair fight. High shelves?
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Apr 13, 2021 02:49
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Red Wings point% with Mantha on the roster: .395 Red Wings point% without Mantha on the roster: 1.000  (also they've now got a winning record against Carolina this year)
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Apr 13, 2021 02:53
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Detroit has 15 wins on the season, 8 of which have come against the top 3 teams in the Central (and 7 of those 8 being in regulation), which is 
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Apr 13, 2021 02:59
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lol max domi claims murphy elbowed him but he just collided with his back and murphy's elbow went back after the collision, didn't even make contact
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Apr 13, 2021 05:30
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https://twitter.com/CJC_95/status/1381728985567084546?s=20 Big boys
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Apr 13, 2021 12:11
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The Canucks wake up today somehow worse in the short term and long term. Quite the deadline for old Jim. They also didn't acquire a goaltender of any sort so Mike DiPietro will go 18+ months between professional starts. Great way to kill a youngster's career for seemingly no reason.
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Apr 13, 2021 13:58
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 https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1381970271347818497?s=19
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Apr 13, 2021 15:13
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WE DID IT, YALL 
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Apr 13, 2021 15:19
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https://twitter.com/borntodanhard/status/1381731024372047876?s=21
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Apr 13, 2021 15:40
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Sabres. Out: Hall, Montour, Staal, Lazar In: 2nd, 2x 3rds, 5th and Bjork I'm sure our well respected scouting department will choose some great players in the draft with these picks! And then properly develop them like all of our other prospects! 
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Apr 13, 2021 15:41
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th3t00t posted:I'm sure our well respected scouting department will choose some great players in the draft with these picks! And then properly develop them like all of our other prospects! Wasn't the scouting department already fired?
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Apr 13, 2021 15:41
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Wasn't the scouting department already fired? Fire them again, just to make sure
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Apr 13, 2021 15:47
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th3t00t posted:Sabres. That's a very weak return for Hall, rental or not. ... it's what now?
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Apr 13, 2021 15:51
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Wasn't the scouting department already fired?
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Apr 13, 2021 15:57
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