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Warbadger posted:They'd do the same thing. So would anyone else with the means, if it was worthwhile. The markets wouldn't bottom out. The cost and effort to slowly mine the first asteroids would be costly enough that the acquired resources wouldn't immediately affect world markets to that degree; as the technology gets better the world economy would have gotten used to a larger and cheaper supply of rare earths; demand would increase to meet supply as the economy simply adapts to producing more things with those rare earths. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8XvQNt26KI
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Apr 24, 2021 16:11
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Here is a weird one from today..a 3-in-1 dissimilar commissioning ceremony. https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1385911208797081602 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQBFHTOvHg8    It's like the start of a joke..."a beaver, a fox and a turtle are jogging in the forest when..." Dante80 fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Apr 24, 2021 |
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Apr 24, 2021 21:32
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Prez not even bothering to come out for the commissioning of just one or two piddly ships.
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Apr 24, 2021 21:43
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why are there mbts at a commissioning ceremony?
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Apr 24, 2021 21:49
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TK-42-1 posted:why are there mbts at a commissioning ceremony? Those are amphibs, the view is from inside the LHD. Personally I still don't get how deceivingly small those 055s look from some angles.  not this one. Dante80 fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Apr 24, 2021 |
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Apr 24, 2021 21:52
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TK-42-1 posted:why are there mbts at a commissioning ceremony? Amphibious light tanks; they just look MBT bc making them float kinda forces them to increase the dimensions a bit.
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Apr 24, 2021 22:04
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Raenir Salazar posted:The markets wouldn't bottom out. The cost and effort to slowly mine the first asteroids would be costly enough that the acquired resources wouldn't immediately affect world markets to that degree; as the technology gets better the world economy would have gotten used to a larger and cheaper supply of rare earths; demand would increase to meet supply as the economy simply adapts to producing more things with those rare earths. Dropping a couple tons of gold on the market all at once - enough to cover the launches and interplanetary travel necessary to mine and recover it - would actually have an appreciable impact on the gold market. Remember - the vast majority of the world's gold reserves aren't on the market at any given time. Throw in the perception that "oh poo poo, these guys and anybody else who pulls it off will have a potentially endless gold mine - how big did viable gold reserves just become??" and the perception of gold as a rare luxury commodity or means to invest or store wealth would also likely change quickly - in the same way it did for semiprecious stones and metals when reliable sources became globally available. You might see this glut of new gold increase demand but only as a result of crashing the price enough to make it viable in new applications and keeping it there long enough. Still, the end result there is needing to move increasing amounts to maintain the same profits. Throw in the fact that if you do succeed and open up a great new supply of viable resources, the end result is a gold rush among everyone with the means to copy you. You aren't going to have a monopoly on the infinity money printer in space unless you're the one shooting down everybody else's spaceships. Generally speaking those types of events rarely end with the first guy/country to strike it rich coming out on top.
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Apr 24, 2021 22:15
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It obviously won't happen though, because of Space OPEC. No one is going to be dumb enough to dump a bunch of resources all at once, they will parcel it out and sell it in smaller amounts; prices might actually increase due to speculation.
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Apr 24, 2021 22:31
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Raenir Salazar posted:It obviously won't happen though, because of Space OPEC. No one is going to be dumb enough to dump a bunch of resources all at once, they will parcel it out and sell it in smaller amounts; prices might actually increase due to speculation. Even with space OPEC everybody knows the available reserves just got obscenely huge and few people are going to pay more for gold when it turns out there's a lot more of it available. Even if they think they can trust that supply is only going to SOMEWHAT increase because space OPEC can be 100% trusted to never burn down their retirement fund on a whim. Also, using OPEC as an example, OPEC has absolutely crashed oil prices to stabilize profits or to compete with non-OPEC rivals internationally. They also have to deal with a bunch of non-OPEC members with substantial oil reserves who can and have done the same thing, and are just as resilient in the market as themselves because it turns out OPEC can't just up and invade or burn down all the oil-havers. Also notable that (unlike oil) valuable metals (and those that aren't super valuable anymore for that matter) tend to be pretty recoverable, re-useable, and long lasting. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Apr 24, 2021 |
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Apr 24, 2021 22:49
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Wonder what shipping cost for bulk metal from whereever to earth surface is gonna be. You probably don't wanna just yeet it out a barge in earth orbit and apply a bit of deorbiting burn, or do you? Hold on a sec, parachutes are a thing. So something like cubes of metal with a bit of a heat shield glued on crashing into a desert at not quite terminal velocity? You don't need to slow them to a speed where a human would survive the landing since there's no human inside, but you also don't want the thing to nail itself 20m deep into the ground.
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Apr 24, 2021 22:58
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Warbadger posted:Even with space OPEC everybody knows the available reserves just got obscenely huge, and few people are going to pay more for gold when it turns out there's a lot more of it available, even if they think they can trust that supply is only going to SOMEWHAT increase because space OPEC can be 100% trusted to never burn down their retirement fund on a whim. Also, using OPEC as an example, OPEC has absolutely crashed oil prices to stabilize profits or to compete with non-OPEC rivals internationally. They also have to deal with a bunch of non-OPEC members with substantial oil reserves who can and have done the same thing, and are just as resilient in the market as themselves. Also notable that (unlike oil) valuable metals (and those that aren't super valuable anymore for that matter) tend to be pretty recoverable, re-useable, and long lasting. I don't think you realize how this will work out in practice. Private companies can't just go into space because they want to; first its extremely expensive so we've got a long while before SpaceX successors start appearing (likely as a result of the first asteroid ventures succeeding); second they will got to abide according to the regulations of the nations they are launching from; and as soon as they eye a third world nation to launch from the UN will probably step in and pass resolutions to make sure they can't gently caress it up for everyone. So this idea that as soon as one company can start asteroid mining a bunch will isn't at all how its going to happen, not on the time scales we're considering here. Second, even if somehow prices did plummet, again, the market will reach equilibrium long before some kind of crash will happen, markets don't really crash anymore because of regulations and the tools governments have at their disposal to intervene; it just isn't at all likely. Governments will step in and buy a whole bunch of futures to prop up prices until things stabilize, the average consumer isn't going to noticing anything other than consumer electrics getting a little cheaper. Real life isn't Tom Clancy, markets aren't real or free, they exists at the behest of states, corporations and consumers. Third, OPEC has been around for a long time and the fact is they do have strong control over oil prices over the long term; you're overthinking it. The fact is the moment that the first asteroid can be successfully mined, you'll have something analogous to a cartel formed around the ability for enterprises to launch and retrieve, mine, process and redistribute with a lot of hands in all the pies; what you describe just frankly isn't going to happen; it's the least likely result and assumes everyone stands around and does nothing. The fact is the process to acquire resources from asteroids takes so long that it'll be priced into the market through speculators before a single ounce of it reaches the Earth. That is the reality of the market; the prices of goods is driven by futures markets more than anything else long in advance. In any case, the most likely result is the gradual decline of prices for end user electronics as the process becomes more reliable and consistent; they'll never completely drop like say aluminium because people will find nifty things to do with them now that they're cheaper which will boost demand in proportion to the drop in supply.
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Apr 24, 2021 23:01
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aphid_licker posted:Wonder what shipping cost for bulk metal from whereever to earth surface is gonna be. You probably don't wanna just yeet it out a barge in earth orbit and apply a bit of deorbiting burn, or do you? Hold on a sec, parachutes are a thing. So something like cubes of metal with a bit of a heat shield glued on crashing into a desert at not quite terminal velocity? That's the easy part. The hard part is getting out to the asteroid (takes time, lots of $$$ to build and launch), moving it back to near earth orbit (takes a long rear end time, industrial fuckups could potentially be measured in the megatons), and if you don't fancy dumping big space rocks into the planet - refining it in space (yay, a bunch of brand new $$$$ technologies and a shortcut to Kessler syndrome!). Raenir Salazar posted:I don't think you realize how this will work out in practice. Private companies can't just go into space because they want to; first its extremely expensive so we've got a long while before SpaceX successors start appearing (likely as a result of the first asteroid ventures succeeding); second they will got to abide according to the regulations of the nations they are launching from; and as soon as they eye a third world nation to launch from the UN will probably step in and pass resolutions to make sure they can't gently caress it up for everyone. So this idea that as soon as one company can start asteroid mining a bunch will isn't at all how its going to happen, not on the time scales we're considering here. I think I understand exactly how this would work out in practice. It'd be historically economically un-viable with some tremendous technological hurdles and some huge implications with stuff like "should spacerockmining.org have the ability to delete a city off the map through an industrial accident or miscalculation"? Which is why is hasn't happened, and is still actually unlikely to happen in any significant way for at least the next few decades. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Apr 24, 2021 |
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Apr 24, 2021 23:03
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Kessler Syndrome is theorized but it isn't exactly gauranteed or likely. Especially if the space refining happens at a completely different orbit from where most consumer satellites orbit at. GPS happens at 20,000km, GEO and GSO is at 35,000km; Sputnik was at 215km, the ISS is at 340km; and so on. The Lagrangian points are even further out, 1.5 million km away. You could set up space refining stations well away from where Kessler Syndrome could occur, and as a result of this development of space infrastructure, develop the technologies to clean up our space garbage.Warbadger posted:I think I understand exactly how this would work out in practice. It'd be historically economically un-viable with some tremendous technological hurdles and some huge implications with stuff like "should spacerockmining.org have the ability to delete a city off the map through an industrial accident or miscalculation"? Which is why is hasn't happened, and is still actually unlikely to happen in any significant way for at least the next few decades. Colonizing the New World was extremely (ruinously) expensive at first; and now look at the New World, it's home to the world's largest economy. It'll be unviable without government subsidy, until it no longer needs subsidy, then it'll be privatized and the free market will spur innovation and technological proliferation and unprecedented expansion. Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Apr 24, 2021 |
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Apr 24, 2021 23:09
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Dante80 posted:Personally I still don't get how deceivingly small those 055s look from some angles. The Chinese call them Destroyers, but apparently NATO calls them cruisers. The fuckers are only 20ft shorter than a Zumwalt and fully 100ft longer than an Arleigh Burke.
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Apr 24, 2021 23:10
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MrYenko posted:The Chinese call them Destroyers, but apparently NATO calls them cruisers. The fuckers are only 20ft shorter than a Zumwalt and fully 100ft longer than an Arleigh Burke. Does NATO call the Zumwalt a cruiser, too? Maybe it should just to be fair
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Apr 24, 2021 23:36
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Pretty sure the most accurate designation for the Zumwalt is a self-propelled pork barge.
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Apr 24, 2021 23:43
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Cruiser gap 21st century
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Apr 24, 2021 23:43
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Just go full JMSDF and call everything destroyers.
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Apr 24, 2021 23:46
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Kessler syndrome is vastly overstated as a long-term threat. Laser brooms are current-tech possible and in the event of an actual ablation cascade there’d be enough money made available to make them a real thing in very short order.
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Apr 25, 2021 00:46
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Dante80 posted:Here is a weird one from today..a 3-in-1 dissimilar commissioning ceremony. China's Navy is growing fast, isn't it.
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Apr 25, 2021 02:35
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This could have been a 5 in 1 if they were willing to wait a little. A 052DL destroyer ("Nanning") was commissioned on the April 12th, and then another one on April 16th ("Kaifeng"). 6 in 1 if "Yan'an" gets commissioned soon - it was the second 055 hull that launched together with "Dalian" back in late 2018. 
Dante80 fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Apr 25, 2021 |
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Apr 25, 2021 03:25
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piL posted:Electronics technician say the same thing about getting splashed with EM energy Anecdotally, in the flying community I was part of, there seemed to be a lot more girl offspring, and many of the boys had ADHD or other behavioral disorders. piL posted:Unrelated question I've probably asked before: does anyone know of good alternatives to Janes or GlobalSecurity.org for general accumulation of open source defense stuff? I don't want to spend thousands of dollars on weightlifting equipment (books) and globalsecurity.org seems a little too chaotic for me. I have a hard time believing nobody is trying to sell something to the market between Wikipedia and Jane's corporate accounts. KGS nightwatch had some seriously dope osint with analysis. It used to be free and went to a subscription model but was still a hella good deal at 20 or 30 bucks a year. I haven't used it in a few years but their site says they still offer the service.
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Apr 25, 2021 03:52
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Guest2553 posted:Anecdotally, in the flying community I was part of, there seemed to be a lot more girl offspring, and many of the boys had ADHD or other behavioral disorders. Well of course they had ADHD, they're related to pilots
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Apr 25, 2021 04:04
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Warbadger posted:Dropping a couple tons of gold on the market all at once - enough to cover the launches and interplanetary travel necessary to mine and recover it - would actually have an appreciable impact on the gold market. Remember - the vast majority of the world's gold reserves aren't on the market at any given time. Throw in the perception that "oh poo poo, these guys and anybody else who pulls it off will have a potentially endless gold mine - how big did viable gold reserves just become??" and the perception of gold as a rare luxury commodity or means to invest or store wealth would also likely change quickly - in the same way it did for semiprecious stones and metals when reliable sources became globally available. Since the entire market is based on speculation, as soon as it looks like someone is actually doing something with a reasonable chance of success (maybe when it becomes clear that the asteroid is moving as desired?), the price will plummet. Unless there's some other factor (idiots during wartime buying up gold as a hedge) countering it.
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Apr 25, 2021 19:33
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Kesper North posted:Well of course they had ADHD, they're related to pilots We're mostly back end mission crew on a heavy. I said ADHD, not spectrum 
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Apr 25, 2021 19:39
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Guest2553 posted:
Nice, I'll look into this.
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Apr 25, 2021 19:44
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Godholio posted:Since the entire market is based on speculation, as soon as it looks like someone is actually doing something with a reasonable chance of success (maybe when it becomes clear that the asteroid is moving as desired?), the price will plummet. Unless there's some other factor (idiots during wartime buying up gold as a hedge) countering it. Yep, completely agree.
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Apr 25, 2021 20:05
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Godholio posted:Since the entire market is based on speculation, as soon as it looks like someone is actually doing something with a reasonable chance of success (maybe when it becomes clear that the asteroid is moving as desired?), the price will plummet. Unless there's some other factor (idiots during wartime buying up gold as a hedge) countering it. This other factor exists and is called the Federal Reserve. The idea that the market will bottom out I don't think has historical precedent in the post Breton-Woods era. You have the labour and transportation costs that would be factored in at a minimum preventing the price from going negative or something similarly silly. There probably would be a drop yes, but it wouldn't like collapse the markets. Basically the moment the price drops below the point it is profitable is when selling of the thing will slow if not cease entirely until prices rise, the market is an incredibly complicated web of exchanges, speculators, government policies, and banking such that there will simply be a new normal. Basically because the acquired minerals are going to be processed and sold through existing distributors who have a vested interest in controlling the prices, at no point will an amount be sold that it would undercut themselves. This is on top of the fact that it is so onerously expensive to mine asteroids that there's no way its being sold at any point for less than the cost of the labour it took to extract. There will probably come a point where precious metals and rare earths stop being so precious or rare, but market forces will have adapted to that new normal.
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Apr 25, 2021 21:00
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MRC48B posted:Need more pictures of the Cow-bra I missed open times this weekend and im headed to detroit before they open again. I did stop and park for a couple other pics tho.     I like how when you look at a tomcat head on everything is flexed in towards the center 
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Apr 25, 2021 22:21
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big swole boi
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Apr 26, 2021 01:13
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the f-14 makes me feel like i assume all those perverts feel about the giant resident evil lady
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Apr 26, 2021 03:00
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Raenir Salazar posted:This other factor exists and is called the Federal Reserve. The idea that the market will bottom out I don't think has historical precedent in the post Breton-Woods era. You have the labour and transportation costs that would be factored in at a minimum preventing the price from going negative or something similarly silly. I think every gold mine on the planet that doesn't actively employ slaves will shut down before the first ounce from space enters the atmosphere.
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Apr 26, 2021 03:32
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Godholio posted:I think every gold mine on the planet that doesn't actively employ slaves will shut down before the first ounce from space enters the atmosphere. Not really; unless those companies and their distribution companies switch to footing the bill for the space mining; those companies have no other business until the last possible drop.
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Apr 26, 2021 04:32
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It varies but gold is discovered, mined and refined industrially for less than $30 a gram and like oil there are producers producing for far less ( than $5 a gram). Also chat about a couple of tonne being dropped on the market making a difference is wildly off the mark (it’s less than half a days world wide production). I think there was anger a few years / decade ago when EU central banks dropped 1,400 tonnes onto the market over six months or so but the gold price still went up within a year or so.
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Apr 26, 2021 09:50
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Phy posted:2001: A Space Odyssey and its sequel, 2010, do have a healthy Soviet Union in space. 2001 doesn't go into it much other than a scene on the space station with Soviet scientists casually grilling an American about the weird poo poo the Yanks appear to have found on the moon, and it's been ages since I saw and/or read 2010 but I think it has a Soviet ship and cosmonauts in it? The Soviet ship is, like, the main ship of the whole book, sent to find out what happened to the American one from 2001. 
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Apr 26, 2021 11:32
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Dante80 posted:A couple of twitter videos from today.. From the caption this video was on Kastellorizo which is only a couple of km off the Turkish coast. Its Greek territory of course but I imagine fairly provocative. Also the terrain looks the same as Cyprus where I had the misfortune to do a do a 2-week surveillance exercise.
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Apr 26, 2021 13:34
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Electric Wrigglies posted:It varies but gold is discovered, mined and refined industrially for less than $30 a gram and like oil there are producers producing for far less ( than $5 a gram). Ok, that's far less than I expected. There's a price at which it becomes unprofitable to continue mining operations...as soon as the price hits that point you'll see mines shut down. Just like shale oil producers late last year, just like every closed mine in history. It won't be as early as I predicted before, if there's that much profit per gram. But once the floodgate opens, it'll happen quick. quote:Also chat about a couple of tonne being dropped on the market making a difference is wildly off the mark (it’s less than half a days world wide production). I think there was anger a few years / decade ago when EU central banks dropped 1,400 tonnes onto the market over six months or so but the gold price still went up within a year or so. There's still a difference between reintroducing material that was already circulated, vs adding a significant amount of new material that has a virtually endless supply.
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Apr 26, 2021 22:26
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While it certainly has dissimilarities with a theoretical exo-terrestrial source of gold, you can look at the evolution of industrial Aluminum smelting. It went from a rare, precious metal with very few uses beyond novelty, to the second most produced industrial metal in just a couple hundred years. We already have a ton of industrial uses for gold, so any significant drop in price due to an increase in supply would likely be tempered by near-immediate new demand for previously uneconomical applications. I still maintain that the biggest advantage of any asteroid mined metals is that they’re ALREADY IN SPACE, and thus don’t have to be hauled out of our gravity well. This does assume some level of microgravity refinement and fabrication infrastructure, but if you’re asteroid mining I think it’s pretty safe to say that you’re already there anyway.
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Apr 26, 2021 22:35
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MrYenko posted:While it certainly has dissimilarities with a theoretical exo-terrestrial source of gold, you can look at the evolution of industrial Aluminum smelting. It went from a rare, precious metal with very few uses beyond novelty, to the second most produced industrial metal in just a couple hundred years. Gold spaceships. Hell yes.
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Apr 26, 2021 22:37
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Godholio posted:Gold spaceships. Hell yes. I’ve seen the future, and it is bling as gently caress.
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Apr 26, 2021 22:39
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