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Should there even be a poll here??? This poll is closed. |
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| Yes |
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106 | 15.84% |
| No |
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117 | 17.49% |
| Goku |
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446 | 66.67% |
| Total: | 669 votes | ||
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Probability discussions by people who think they know it but don't are the really schadenfreude. -- The important thing that you need to remember is that the chance of you having the car/million bucks/whatever isn't 50% or 1/3 or anything like that - you don't roll the dice after the fact to determine the outcome. It's either 100% or it's 0%. When you talk about the "probability" of an unknown event that has already happened, you're really talking about your perception of the odds - your best guess, given the information available to you, as to the distribution of possible outcomes. So, looking at the Monty Hall problem for a bit. You pick a door. There's a 1/3 chance it has the car behind it. The host opens a door with a goat behind it. What have you learned? Nothing at all about your door. You already knew there was a goat behind at least one of the other doors. Your best guess at the chance you currently have the car stays at 1/3, so you're better off switching. But if the host opens a door at random, and it just so happens to have a goat, then you have learned something! You've learned that a randomly chosen other door doesn't have a car behind it. That gives you more information about all the unopened doors, and you can get a better best-guess for the odds you picked the car the first time.
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May 7, 2021 07:31
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^^^ I think so, more like calculating an average over time vs predicting what's going to happen right now. e: This was about the EV post.SirPablo posted:It doesn't matter if Monty knows ahead of time which door has a goat. It only matters that it is revealed.  That means he knows where they are, or at a minimum the game itself does. What I mean is in that scenario the NEWCAR will never be taken away, so 1/3 you picked the car initially, and 2/3 the NEWCAR was one of the remaining doors you didn't pick.SirPablo posted:In the end, there was a 1/26 chance chins picked the $1M case, and a 25/26 chance it was up on the stage. He should have switched. In Make A Deal (I think, I've only seen a few minutes here and there) it's entirely possible that the million case has already been eliminated throughout the game, so the odds that it was his case or the remaining case were both 1/26, or by that point 50/50. Unless you mean that in that particular scenario, since the rest of the cases had been opened and there was still a million case left, that it becomes more likely it was among the larger group vs the one he picked in the beginning? I'm OK at math but statistics can get fuuuuuuuucked 
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May 7, 2021 07:32
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Memento posted:Isn't EV also something you really only look at for a long series of outcomes? Like opening multiple packs of CCG cards, you can average out the return and say "this is what you can expect". Yes - EV is over infinite tries. That being said, it can be used then to make one-off decisions. But EV does not account for your risk tolerance, which is dependent on the individual outcomes available, your current life status, and the general range between possible outcomes, among other subjective bits. In the Deal or No Deal example posted, the EV is $500k (50% chance $1mil and 50% chance $1), so $400k seems like a bad offer. But with the wide range in outcomes, and presumably the player not already being a millionaire, it would be easy for many people’s risk tolerance to accept the $400k instead of risking ending up with $1. I have no idea if the Monty Hall problem really applies here to switching cases. I don’t think it does, though. Randomly removing cases that have any value is not the same as removing specific cases that don’t have the grand prize. Nottherealaborn fucked around with this message at 07:35 on May 7, 2021 |
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May 7, 2021 07:33
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https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/deal-or-no-deal-and-monty-hall-6db67570352a Ultimately the guy walked away with basically nothing.
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May 7, 2021 08:02
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The best thing about this guy is he approaches it with the air of an olympic gymnast preparing to do one of those floor dances with the sticks with tassels on it.
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May 7, 2021 08:29
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The big thing to account for with EV is that the value function is non-linear - the first 400k is likely to be more valuable to you than the next 600k, even though the latter is bigger numerically. (For the bank it's purely linear, of course - meaning that you taking the gamble is a bad bet for both sides! The uninvolved spectators are the only ones with a positive EV).
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May 7, 2021 09:13
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No one is factoring the value the world gets when laughing at him
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May 7, 2021 09:20
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Inceltown posted:No one is factoring the value the world gets when laughing at him This. He literally passed up a bird in hand for the promise of two in the bush.
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May 7, 2021 11:59
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*moron makes an objectively bad one-off decision* statistically,
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May 7, 2021 12:00
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Haha man get no money
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May 7, 2021 12:14
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I wish someone kicked him in the balls. That would be the real schadenfreude.
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May 7, 2021 12:22
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Kennel posted:I wish someone kicked him in the balls. That would be the real schadenfreude. The thread would still break it down in a boring way and make it not fun anymore.
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May 7, 2021 12:44
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Regy Rusty posted:Haha man get no money And somehow electric vehicles have something to do with it!
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May 7, 2021 12:48
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But what if he switched cases twice? By which I, of course, mean: shut up you exhausting loving nerds
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May 7, 2021 13:20
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Cocaine Bear posted:
Derails like this highlight which goons took a statistics class, and which ones paid attention. The ones that paid attention are the silent ones because this is a game show and game shows have historically been rigged games so statistical probability doesn't really matter when it comes to the outcome of them. It's like trying to get the average number from playing 'what number am I thinking of".
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May 7, 2021 14:01
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It's a Knockout and AM*AZING are the only really good game shows.
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May 7, 2021 14:05
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Regy Rusty posted:Haha man get no money Hey he got $1.
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May 7, 2021 14:09
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Cocaine Bear posted:By which I, of course, mean: shut up you exhausting loving nerds But why don’t they lower the road?
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May 7, 2021 14:09
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Humphreys posted:It's a Knockout and AM*AZING are the only really good game shows. Right you are, Ken.
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May 7, 2021 14:09
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SirPablo posted:Hey he got $1. 60 cents after taxes.
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May 7, 2021 14:11
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https://i.imgur.com/PC8xLx2.mp4
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May 7, 2021 14:15
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send the ref to the penalty box
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May 7, 2021 14:17
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What this doesn’t show is that it let the other team go down and score a short handed goal on their power play, the real schade. https://youtu.be/F1qJEgG47EA
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May 7, 2021 14:26
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While we're posting hockey clips, here's an old one that always makes me laugh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bBns6ZUn0U Apparently Edmonton still lost the game anyway and one of the comments on the video says that point cost them Patrick Kane in the draft (I know nothing about hockey so I have no idea if that part is schadenfreude or not) but at any rate, I love how the commentator is so critical of the player that fell (at around the 0:40 mark is where he goes on his little tirade). homewrecker fucked around with this message at 14:42 on May 7, 2021 |
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May 7, 2021 14:39
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What's the hockey monkey movie? Most Valuable Primate?
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May 7, 2021 14:44
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Pope Corky the IX posted:What's the hockey monkey movie? Most Valuable Primate? Goon
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May 7, 2021 14:46
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You lying sack of poo poo.
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May 7, 2021 14:47
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homewrecker posted:Apparently Edmonton still lost the game anyway and one of the comments on the video says that point cost them Patrick Kane in the draft (I know nothing about hockey so I have no idea if that part is schadenfreude or not) but at any rate, I love how the commentator is so critical of the player that fell (at around the 0:40 mark is where he goes on his little tirade). Kane's a superstar who has won two championships in Chicago. He's not, like, a generational talent, but he'd have probably helped Edmonton out. I always thought the commentator was unnecessarily harsh on Stefan here. The ice was poo poo, the puck skipped right over his stick, these things happen. It just occurred at the worst possible time.
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May 7, 2021 15:01
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homewrecker posted:Apparently Edmonton still lost the game anyway and one of the comments on the video says that point cost them Patrick Kane in the draft (I know nothing about hockey so I have no idea if that part is schadenfreude or not) but at any rate, I love how the commentator is so critical of the player that fell (at around the 0:40 mark is where he goes on his little tirade). (Chicago got the first draft because they were very lucky and won the lottery (8% chance). Edmonton would have been on their lottery spot if they had one point less, but obviously the lottery circumstances wouldn't have been identical, so Edmonton getting Kane would have been unlikely in any case) Jesus Christ, we're back at the probabilities. Kennel fucked around with this message at 15:21 on May 7, 2021 |
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May 7, 2021 15:15
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Kennel posted:(Chicago got the first draft because they were very lucky and won the lottery (8% chance). Edmonton would have been on their lottery spot if they had one point less, but obviously the lottery circumstances wouldn't have been identical, so Edmonton getting Kane would have been unlikely in any case) All life is probabilities 
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May 7, 2021 15:57
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Fat Loser posted:Derails like this highlight which goons took a statistics class, and which ones paid attention. The ones that paid attention are the silent ones because this is a game show and game shows have historically been rigged games so statistical probability doesn't really matter when it comes to the outcome of them. It's like trying to get the average number from playing 'what number am I thinking of".  If you want schadenfreude on game show producers, check out Michael Larson's run on Press Your Luck.
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May 7, 2021 16:56
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Toaster Beef posted:Kane's a superstar who has won two championships in Chicago. He's not, like, a generational talent, but he'd have probably helped Edmonton out. IDK balls about hockey but I know that I would much rather live in Chicago than loving Edmonton.
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May 7, 2021 17:27
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If you want schadenfreude in your game shows just watch family feud highlights where Steve Harvey is like YOU CANT SAY THAT NOBODY SAID THAT and then it turns out that 37 people did in fact say that.
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May 7, 2021 17:33
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boop the snoot posted:If you want schadenfreude in your game shows just watch family feud highlights where Steve Harvey is like YOU CANT SAY THAT NOBODY SAID THAT and then it turns out that 37 people did in fact say that. 
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May 7, 2021 17:42
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Toaster Beef posted:Kane's a superstar who has won two championships in Chicago. He's not, like, a generational talent, but he'd have probably helped Edmonton out. He was pretty drat lackadaisical about it.
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May 7, 2021 17:45
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Humphreys posted:It's a Knockout and AM*AZING are the only really good game shows. 
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May 7, 2021 17:54
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I've only seen Taskmaster a few times but it was amazing each time I vaguely remember the contestants being asked to bring in something that was important to them, and then they were asked to callously rate each others important item from best to worst and whoever won the episode got to keep the best item? I'm probably remembering that horribly wrong but it was hosed up and I loved it.
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May 7, 2021 18:00
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Look away politics haters: https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1390693319538315271 
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May 7, 2021 18:10
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PinheadSlim posted:I've only seen Taskmaster a few times but it was amazing each time The winner takes home all of them. I guess BBC can't have prize shows, but there's a loophole for if the prizes are provided by the contestants itself it's okay. The early seasons are interesting because nobody had quite figured out what the show was, so some of the contestants would bring in actual personal belongings, but once the show gelled it became almost entirely gag gift things. It's a wonderfully wholesome show and it's all on youtube.
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May 7, 2021 18:10
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Clanpot Shake posted:The winner takes home all of them. I guess BBC can't have prize shows, but there's a loophole for if the prizes are provided by the contestants itself it's okay. The early seasons are interesting because nobody had quite figured out what the show was, so some of the contestants would bring in actual personal belongings, but once the show gelled it became almost entirely gag gift things. Also, it's the Taskmaster who rates the prizes, but the contestants do rag on each other a lot. The show also gave us one of the greatest moments of (harmless) schad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UgSDcHPgCc
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May 7, 2021 18:23
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