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Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
(i acknowledge he has probably already let it go, but im still catching up, gimme a break)

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CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Mr. Steak posted:

(i acknowledge he has probably already let it go, but im still catching up, gimme a break)

I refuse.

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


CCKeane posted:

Feels like you're assuming Solus is town with this.

I don’t like this snipe Keane. Do you think At-low is scummy for it or what? I don’t see that assumption in there so I’m pinged by this prod.

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Sandwolf posted:

This feels very very contrived from dy but I don’t think he’s scum. I think it’s just early D1 and he can’t understand why I’d claim that so it’s shorting his brain out and he has to think I’m scum

idk, i was actually agreeing with you when you were leaning into calling dy scum for the push. at first it was reasonable but he made it really hard to keep agreeing with his point when he kept pushing SO HARD on you

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

dy. posted:

So this is the last thing I'll say on the topic so I don't completely monopolize this conversation: this is not a normal setup. You providing your role information is a direct hint as to what the people above and below you on the list could have chosen. The players at the top of the draft order are particularly important because they are more likely to be powerful roles. You're not just making a (bad) decision to reveal your own role information, you're also making a (bad) decision to disclose the role information of others.

Before you claimed:

The best information the scum had would lead them to believe that you, Grandicap, Toalpaz, and merk were likely to choose mason and not be a huge threat to the scum. They would feel the most threatened by you. In the #6 draft slot, there is a reasonable chance you could have picked something else. You could have, at the very least, eaten a nightkill that could have hit someone more powerful.

After you claimed:

The best information the scum have would lead them to believe that you are mason and not much of a threat to them. They can focus their nightkill somewhere else. They know that the other 1,1's are not masons and could be a more powerful role.

The thing that tips you in the directly of scummy for me is your suggestion that the other 1,1's are scum because they didn't pick mason. Softclaiming to pick mason in the pregame and then going for a more powerful role strikes me as a smart town move and not something at all to be suspicious of.

To be fair, I think I do this with you in every game, but it's the best I got right now.

well ok, now i am reading this as first wifoa game, extremely overzealous overthinking about game meta

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact
Wow please stop posting so much

It’s hard to keep up

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

AT-LOW posted:

Why is anyone advocating voting Solus

Like is there a case or are a bunch of people just going "hey let's vote out our vig who is steadly growing more reliable for no reason"

This is weird white knighting.

##vote At-low

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


merk posted:

Wow please stop posting so much

It’s hard to keep up

NEVER

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Sandwolf posted:

I agree with that analysis At-Low. At least for today. One question about firing squad cabinet, would Solus need to “retrieve” a gun first at night or do ya reckon he started with one?

I’m not sure it matters just didn’t know

Also weird white knighting the white Knight?

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Yah, if solus flips scum I'm on board with going after AT-LOW.

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Toalpaz posted:

We're in a game with no other faction, I'm willing to bet. hehehe.

i know this is a joke, but if everyone in the game were town then we would win. the game doesnt continue after that.

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


merk posted:

Also weird white knighting the white Knight?

Okay?? Do you have anything to say about alignments? Town defend other people too, the characterization of it as “white knighting” is coloring it but I don’t really see it as inherently scummy behavior.

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Mr. Steak posted:

i know this is a joke, but if everyone in the game were town then we would win. the game doesnt continue after that.

makes you think

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!


CCKeane posted:

Right, but Solus used his ability in an anti town way.

Which made him a known quantity. We can just say "Hey Solus, use your ability in a pro-town way from now on or we vote you." If Solus is town, town controls a vig. If Solus is scum, Solus must confirm this inthread by going rogue, thereby giving us explicit confirmation that Solus is unwilling to cooperate with town.

Regardless of how much I would rather dayvigs save their D1 shots for vote leaders, given my admittedly limited understanding of site meta, I am not prepared to vote a likely firing squad based only on a first post chaos shot. If Solus posts scummy I'll vote Solus, but imo Solus has only posted ~shenanigans~ and I don't wanna rush this when we can just ask Solus to cooperate with town

Solus's actual content thus far is very dry of readable gameplay, and I'm just not gonna assume scum until I see opinions or some kind of non-chaos gameplay

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Grandicap posted:

dy. and Sand are both more likely than not town in my eyes. Not voting either today.

starting to come to this conclusion myself

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

CCKeane posted:

Who cares about Sandwolf or Dy. Gimme those Solus takes.

well he kinda shot a vig and then dipped. of course he could have gone to work or sleep right after, but look, even keane and merk have been posting a lot.

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

b-minus1 posted:

This reads like a slip. “Rest of the town” implies dy already knows sandwolf’s alignment. Which is town. Meaning dy is scum ##vote dy

maybe its just me, but i thought "the town" meant all players in the game, and "town" meant the allignment

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

dy. posted:

Come on I'm using "the town" to mean "all of the players in this game." This is stupid.

oh. lmao

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!


CCKeane posted:

Ah gently caress it's Solus AND Grand I think.

Grandicap posted:

Yah, if solus flips scum I'm on board with going after AT-LOW.

I personally doubt that scum takes the 80/20 chance, but I'd like to hear more about where you're going with that, Keane.

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

dy. posted:

Since Sandwolf is so keen to discuss, I would love to hear other takes on this post. This is the post that started it all but I haven't really seen anyone else respond to it. Do you think this is a real thought?

OMG LET IT GO

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
(yes i see the irony of me posting about arguments while saying they are dumb. but i want to comment on stuff i slept through)

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
i dont understand why people seem to think solus needs to grab a rifle to shoot it? well, besides that solus himself implied it. but that runs counter to the role as the OP explains it

quote:

Firing Squad Vigilante: You are in charge of the firing squad rifle cabinet. There are five rifles. They only fire once. Only one is loaded. You may only fire one rifle per day (##kill xxx in thread) as firing squads don’t shoot at night. Each night you may target the cabinet and, if successful, a magical hand will remove an unloaded rifle from the cabinet.

the use of the hand is to increase the probability of the next shot firing a bullet. NOT grabbing a gun to shoot with

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

AT-LOW posted:

I personally doubt that scum takes the 80/20 chance,

well, in the last wifoa game, scum vigged scum on d1 with a 100% chance. so

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Mr. Steak posted:

i dont understand why people seem to think solus needs to grab a rifle to shoot it? well, besides that solus himself implied it. but that runs counter to the role as the OP explains it


the use of the hand is to increase the probability of the next shot firing a bullet. NOT grabbing a gun to shoot with

I misunderstood then but I get it now

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
also, it completely justified my analysis that the towniedst use of the toxic vig is to ALWAYS guess "town" with the shot.

what happened in that game was scum vigged scum with faulty vig by guessing "scum". in the end it "worked", but i was still skeptical because of my meta analysis.


if you are town with the faulty vig, it is the most beneficial to ONLY guess town, unless you are VERY loving SURE that they're scum.

here's why:
if you guess scum and your target is town, that's 2 dead town.
if you guess town and your target is town, that's only 1 dead town.
if you guess town and your target is scum, that's 1 dead town and 1 dead scum

the risk of guessing scum is significantly higher than the risk of guessing town.

qed

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact

Sandwolf posted:

Okay?? Do you have anything to say about alignments? Town defend other people too, the characterization of it as “white knighting” is coloring it but I don’t really see it as inherently scummy behavior.

I’ve voted two people.

merk
May 20, 2003

##interact
I have six posts, two which are votes and one of which is a clear scummy read. These posts total about fifty words.

What else do you want?

I now have seven posts.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

AT-LOW posted:

I personally doubt that scum takes the 80/20 chance, but I'd like to hear more about where you're going with that, Keane.

Last WIFOA opened with scum shooting scum d1 for cred. So ymmv.

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


merk posted:

I have six posts, two which are votes and one of which is a clear scummy read. These posts total about fifty words.

What else do you want?

I now have seven posts.

I want eight posts damnit!

Mr. Steak
May 9, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
u know what, i probably had the impression merk was posting more cuz of illemuche

sandnavyguy
Sep 12, 2015

AT-LOW posted:

I personally doubt that scum takes the 80/20 chance, but I'd like to hear more about where you're going with that, Keane.

Actually I’ll be honest, I agree with Keane this was my line of thinking cause really it’s a 1/5 shot that it kills the scumbro, 4:5 chance of making a performative bold bus between the two with no harm. And hell, if it did actually fire, they have a fairly solid town talking point that “I wouldn’t take the 1/5 risk as scum and it was a successful random hit yay aren’t I town?”

80% odds isn’t horrible for a successful solid bus, and is definitely a judgement call based on comfort, but I wouldn’t count it out.

That circular logic aside, I’m less enthused about them both being scum because Grandi didn’t lean on Solus as hard as I would have if I were trying to sell a big bus like that. This early on Day 1? It’d be a telenovella for at least a real time night.

sandnavyguy
Sep 12, 2015

sandnavyguy posted:

Actually I’ll be honest, I agree with Keane this was my line of thinking cause really it’s a 1/5 shot that it kills the scumbro, 4:5 chance of making a performative bold bus between the two with no harm. And hell, if it did actually fire, they have a fairly solid town talking point that “I wouldn’t take the 1/5 risk as scum and it was a successful random hit yay aren’t I town?”

80% odds isn’t horrible for a successful solid bus, and is definitely a judgement call based on comfort, but I wouldn’t count it out.

That circular logic aside, I’m less enthused now about them both being scum because Grandi didn’t lean on Solus as hard as I would have if I were trying to sell a big bus like that. This early on Day 1? It’d be a telenovella for at least a real time night.

Bold added for clarity, I’m phone posting

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

sandnavyguy posted:

Actually I’ll be honest, I agree with Keane this was my line of thinking cause really it’s a 1/5 shot that it kills the scumbro, 4:5 chance of making a performative bold bus between the two with no harm. And hell, if it did actually fire, they have a fairly solid town talking point that “I wouldn’t take the 1/5 risk as scum and it was a successful random hit yay aren’t I town?”

80% odds isn’t horrible for a successful solid bus, and is definitely a judgement call based on comfort, but I wouldn’t count it out.

That circular logic aside, I’m less enthused about them both being scum because Grandi didn’t lean on Solus as hard as I would have if I were trying to sell a big bus like that. This early on Day 1? It’d be a telenovella for at least a real time night.

And solus declaring it random after the fact loses them all possible credibility if I flipped scum later.

sandnavyguy
Sep 12, 2015

Grandicap posted:

And solus declaring it random after the fact loses them all possible credibility if I flipped scum later.

Well, not exactly, if you did flip scum down the line they could pass it off as a lucky break still, so there’s wiggle room for scumlunus if that was the case.

CCKeane
Jan 28, 2008

my shit posts don't die, they multiply

Sandwolf posted:

I don’t like this snipe Keane. Do you think At-low is scummy for it or what? I don’t see that assumption in there so I’m pinged by this prod.

Yes, I think At-low is scummy for it.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before

Grandicap posted:

Yah, if solus flips scum I'm on board with going after AT-LOW.

In this post Grandicap is lightly bussing his scumbuddy at low

AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!


dy. posted:

Why though? It's weird that you explored all of these scenarios and he is town in all of them.

I will note that this snipe of a post, leaping on to a burgeoning suspicion while seemingly not analyzing the post I made at all, is my official Least Favourite Post of the thread

First, Keane says that my post basically sounds like I'm arguing from a position that assumes Solus is town. Then, dy leaps in and tries to agree, but says something fundamentally different: that I explored multiple scenarios, and concluded that Solus was town in each one. But in two of my scenarios, I said that Solus was lying, and I specifically said that I wanted to pressure Solus into cooperating rather than trust that Solus is town. I can see why Keane's vibe reading might be off, because I'm refusing to assume that Solus is scum, but I have a harder time believing that dy would genuinely have misread my post's gameplay implications quite so much, given that dy clearly thinks about gameplay quite a lot.

I'll reread and all, mainly to go over how the dy situation developed and to see where the shift to a "dy and sw are probably both town" perspective I saw expressed happened, because honestly I've remained shaky on both: going hard on people playing objectively antitown is a great way to look town while not having to say anything about people looking subjectively scummy, while I also genuinely can't quite tell how much of Sandwolf's early posting he actually wants people to take seriously since it seemed like he was calling it serious with one breath and jokey with the next (also the toal comment was bad but I was fine with the others)

mega dy
Dec 6, 2003

“Just let it go” pff what are you guys my therapist? No, shut up, I don’t want to write a letter to my dad.

mega dy
Dec 6, 2003

AT-LOW posted:

I will note that this snipe of a post, leaping on to a burgeoning suspicion while seemingly not analyzing the post I made at all, is my official Least Favourite Post of the thread

First, Keane says that my post basically sounds like I'm arguing from a position that assumes Solus is town. Then, dy leaps in and tries to agree, but says something fundamentally different: that I explored multiple scenarios, and concluded that Solus was town in each one. But in two of my scenarios, I said that Solus was lying, and I specifically said that I wanted to pressure Solus into cooperating rather than trust that Solus is town. I can see why Keane's vibe reading might be off, because I'm refusing to assume that Solus is scum, but I have a harder time believing that dy would genuinely have misread my post's gameplay implications quite so much, given that dy clearly thinks about gameplay quite a lot.

I'll reread and all, mainly to go over how the dy situation developed and to see where the shift to a "dy and sw are probably both town" perspective I saw expressed happened, because honestly I've remained shaky on both: going hard on people playing objectively antitown is a great way to look town while not having to say anything about people looking subjectively scummy, while I also genuinely can't quite tell how much of Sandwolf's early posting he actually wants people to take seriously since it seemed like he was calling it serious with one breath and jokey with the next (also the toal comment was bad but I was fine with the others)
Cool summary.

I think this guy is scum.

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AT-LOW
Mar 18, 2021

Battle routine, set!
Demon Summoning Program, execute!


b-minus1 posted:

In this post Grandicap is lightly bussing his scumbuddy at low

That would only be a bus if Solus is going to flip scum

You believe that myself, Grandi, and Solus are all scum then?

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