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actually ##vote toal cuz why not
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May 8, 2021 12:47
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I don't have much to add besides that I'm hungry. I think OA does look bad? I agree with Sandwolf on that I guess.
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May 8, 2021 12:58
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Okay I'm eating some poached eggs.
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May 8, 2021 13:07
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AT-LOW posted:This might also be the 4:30 speaking but I feel like I just had a revelation and I now completely understand binus's play and why he does everything he does Care to enlighten us?
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May 8, 2021 13:08
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Alright so I just had a read through of a bunch of people here’s what I’ve determined Sandwolf town Obama town Toal town Sng town Sal town Here’s my top scum picks in no particular order Grandicap af low merk Philip j fry Null Hal Keane Solus Random Dy
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May 8, 2021 13:39
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b-minus1 posted:Alright so I just had a read through of a bunch of people here’s what I’ve determined This is literally the first time you've said merks name. What's your reasoning for him being scummy?
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May 8, 2021 14:07
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CCKeane posted:I don't have much to add besides that I'm hungry. I think OA does look bad? I agree with Sandwolf on that I guess. Yeah getting the same vibe from him as last game
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May 8, 2021 14:19
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CCKeane posted:This is literally the first time you've said merks name. What's your reasoning for him being scummy? I’m not prepared to show my work at this time Sandwolf posted:Yeah getting the same vibe from him as last game
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May 8, 2021 14:26
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My heart says ##vote grandicap
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May 8, 2021 14:30
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Sandwolf posted:Yeah getting the same vibe from him as last game I dunno, he seemed more like he wasn't posting last game, this doesn't seen quite the same
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May 8, 2021 14:35
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AT-LOW posted:33% then 100% lol You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Mr. Steak and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another mafia member, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Hal Insandenza to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Trad Games, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Hal KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Mr Steak, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Trad Games. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Trad Games. See Steak, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Trad Games.
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May 8, 2021 14:46
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b-minus1 posted:I’m not prepared to show my work at this time Why?
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May 8, 2021 15:24
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SalTheBard posted:You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Mr. Steak and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another mafia member, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Hal Insandenza to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Trad Games, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Hal KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Mr Steak, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Trad Games. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Trad Games. See Steak, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Trad Games. I understand that you are doing a thing, but I don't understand that thing at all.
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May 8, 2021 15:36
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Grandicap posted:I understand that you are doing a thing, but I don't understand that thing at all. It's a copypasta
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May 8, 2021 15:39
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oic
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May 8, 2021 15:41
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Grandicap posted:I understand that you are doing a thing, but I don't understand that thing at all. THE CREAM OF THE CROP
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May 8, 2021 15:53
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b-minus1 posted:??? are we reading the same posts? Yes? What has OA done here that they did not do in that last game? This is a bad line of argument so we shouldn’t continue because it eventually boils down to gut, but you should go leaf through OA’s posts there and compare them to here. Or don’t. It doesn’t really matter, it would only be probative for yourself.
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May 8, 2021 15:54
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ilmucche posted:so solus' play doesn't look great to me, but i also understand the draw of rando shooting someone. It reminds me of cpig shooting grandicap in chaos, and cpig was 3p vig or serial killer or whatever. Oof. This post is killing me. 1. Solus play looks anti town... “but” it reminds ilmucche of 3p or SK play (which is... not anti town?) 2. Random speculation about set up that does literally nothing atm but enter another currently useless topic into the discourse
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May 8, 2021 16:59
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AT-LOW posted:but I have a harder time believing that dy would genuinely have misread my post's gameplay implications quite so much, given that dy clearly thinks about gameplay quite a lot. Here's the post: AT-LOW posted:Under this assumption, we can say that Solus has a role with an unreliable daykill I get that you're saying "there's not really anything to suggest that Solus is scum," and I actually agree - he could go either way and we don't really have the information to tell yet. But you laid out three scenarios, only one of which is likely, and in all of which, Solus is town, right? While you were listing unlikely scenarios, why wouldn't you have had one that is like "Solus is pulling a scum gambit?"
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May 8, 2021 17:01
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.random posted:Oof. This post is killing me. Ok. Sorry. I misread where the “but” was in #1. It still reads really badly to me
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May 8, 2021 17:01
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.random posted:Oof. This post is killing me. There's no butts there. I never said it wasn't anti town. You and binus really grasping at straws here
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May 8, 2021 17:03
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.random posted:Ok. Sorry. I misread where the “but” was in #1. It still reads really badly to me Ok fair
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May 8, 2021 17:04
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dy. posted:I'm writing up some notes and was rereading your posts to try to figure out how serious I am in my suspicions of you. If I did misread your post, can you clarify it for me? I don’t get why any of them imply Solus to be town? They just assume Solus will do what we tell him to do during the day or we will lynch him. Which is like, what scum or town would do if they trust the threat. Which I think is actually a good strategy?
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May 8, 2021 17:04
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I don’t have a meta read on OA since I’ve only played one game with him. This is the same way he played last game (as my scum buddy who viciously bussed all his scum buddies  ) but barring additional data points it doesn’t mean so much to me.
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May 8, 2021 17:13
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.random posted:I don’t get why any of them imply Solus to be town? They just assume Solus will do what we tell him to do during the day or we will lynch him. Which is like, what scum or town would do if they trust the threat. Which I think is actually a good strategy? agreed.
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May 8, 2021 17:14
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.random posted:I don’t get why any of them imply Solus to be town? They just assume Solus will do what we tell him to do during the day or we will lynch him. Which is like, what scum or town would do if they trust the threat. Which I think is actually a good strategy? I'd still like to hear from AT-LOW, but I'm wrong on this one.
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May 8, 2021 17:20
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dy. posted:Please don't answer on behalf of AT-LOW I’ll try not to. It’s a bad habit of mine in Mafia that has probably led to people claiming I’m white knighting more than once.
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May 8, 2021 17:25
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.random posted:I’ll try not to. It’s a bad habit of mine in Mafia that has probably led to people claiming I’m white knighting more than once. I’ve only seen merk use that term in like my last 20 played games
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May 8, 2021 17:30
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b-minus1 posted:Alright so I just had a read through of a bunch of people here’s what I’ve determined Hey why me?
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May 8, 2021 18:39
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Sandwolf posted:I’ve only seen merk use that term in like my last 20 played games I also used virtue signaling as a scum tell in a recent game. It was pretty good.
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May 8, 2021 18:41
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dy. posted:I get that you're saying "there's not really anything to suggest that Solus is scum," and I actually agree - he could go either way and we don't really have the information to tell yet. But you laid out three scenarios, only one of which is likely, and in all of which, Solus is town, right? While you were listing unlikely scenarios, why wouldn't you have had one that is like "Solus is pulling a scum gambit?" Solus is implicitly scum in both "lying" scenarios (and could go either way in the truthful one) Mr. Steak posted:i am going to assume that solus had a faulty vig and that he is town alligned AT-LOW posted:Steak please at least read Solus's claim lol Hence this response, I thought that a fakeclaim was incompatible with town In retrospect that isn't strictly the case, and fakeclaiming firing squad as a town when you realize your faulty vig is the bad one could be a way to draw the NK away from a useful role... as long as you're confident you're not going to get instantly cc'd and suspected, which a townie could not know with any certainty (given that the firing squad will likely want to fire D1 no matter what, maybe you could gamble on it not being in the game and if it is you can be like "well I only flushed out a role that was going to want to fire anyway") In any case though, the point of the alt scenarios isn't to demonstrate alignment, it's to demonstrate that under the assumption that the resolved action was 100% real, the pool of what Solus could possibly be is incredibly small, and the most likely case by far is that Solus is actually the firing squad My gripe with the Solus "case" is that it isn't based on scummy gameplay and is instead bending over backwards to eliminate what is almost certainly a power role that town could actually be getting some use out of Do I think Solus is town? Of course not, everything Solus has done so far is NAI. But do I think Solus is scum? Of course not, everything Solus has done so far is NAI. The case is premature and it's advocating wasting a resource that we all but know is on the table. Or, in other words, I do not agree with the concept of eliminating that role based on the information we have so far, when that role in particular is so open and easily controlled by the town as a whole Of course, "the information we have so far" hasn't changed much, so I'll be glad to see it once Solus actually posts content instead of raw chaos
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May 8, 2021 20:36
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Yeah that makes sense. I def misunderstood, sorry about that. I was a little extra surly yesterday. New top scum read is Mr Steak. A lot of stream-of-consciousness posting without any real effort to find scum or ask hard questions. His posts seem weirdly guarded. Phonepostin now so not gonna do a lot of quotes and stuff but I don’t know if there is anything specific I could point to anyway. ##vote Mr Steak
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May 8, 2021 21:16
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AT-LOW posted:Solus is implicitly scum in both "lying" scenarios (and could go either way in the truthful one) What do you make of Keane says Solus used it in the scummiest way possible?
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May 8, 2021 23:42
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Catching up, puppy just started goin nuts so i gotta bounce but this gets me to the end of page 9Grandicap posted:dy. and Sand are both more likely than not town in my eyes. Not voting either today. CCKeane posted:Shooting immediately from the hip, particularly randomly, feels like an effort to hide scumminess behind whackiness. That being said, this guy’s being creative as gently caress and I dig it: AT-LOW posted:In that case, unless the case is very compelling, why not simply pressure Solus to use the remaining shot attempts in a boring, but pro-town way? CCKeane posted:Ah gently caress it's Solus AND Grand I think.
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May 8, 2021 23:53
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AT-LOW posted:I will note that this snipe of a post, leaping on to a burgeoning suspicion while seemingly not analyzing the post I made at all, is my official Least Favourite Post of the thread Not voting AT-LOW today. Reads incredibly town to me. dy. posted:Cool summary. ooph. on to page 11
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May 9, 2021 00:07
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dy or OA work for me but we have a big chunk of time
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May 9, 2021 00:09
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##unvote b-minus1 posted:I think it’s a little early for all this setup spec. I like you better when you're not trying to scumbus my brother while ridiculing everyone for disagreeing with you. I hope this means your town. I also happen to like the gut shot read merk posted:Hey why me?
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May 9, 2021 00:32
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Let me clarify, I like the read as a gut shot but not enough to vote.
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May 9, 2021 00:33
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Hello
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May 9, 2021 01:03
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What’s ^
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May 9, 2021 01:13
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