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Hot Diggity!
Apr 3, 2010

SKELITON_BRINGING_U_ON.GIF

Gatts posted:

All these stats feel like trying to baseballify Football and this is a mistake. Can't teach white 6-6 250lbs with a strong arm at QB thus is a leader with Football IQ is NFL.

DVOA stands for Dorks Value Only Analytics

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fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Hot Diggity! posted:

DVOA stands for Dorks Value Only Analytics

I thought it was a sex thing

Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.

fartknocker posted:

I thought it was a sex thing

...and as you can see from this chart, that was, on an adjusted basis, the best sex you ever had.

Android Apocalypse
Apr 28, 2009

The future is
AUTOMATED
and you are
OBSOLETE

Illegal Hen

fartknocker posted:

I thought it was a sex thing

You're thinking DVDA.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

...and as you can see from this chart, that was, on an adjusted basis, the best sex you ever had.

Can I please get a standard for expected sex minutes

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

kiimo posted:

Can I please get a standard for expected sex minutes

69

Happy Noodle Boy
Jul 3, 2002


kiimo posted:

Can I please get a standard for expected sex minutes

Do you want the Philip Rivers or Rob Gronkowski standards on this?

Mega64
May 23, 2008

I took the octopath less travelered,

And it made one-eighth the difference.
Trying to make predictive measurements on a sample size of like twenty games at most of a team where injuries, weather, outlier performances from individuals, and like fifty other factors can easily influence a game to the point where it's never unfathomable that a weak team can upset a strong team.

Advance stats don't matter when your quarterback chokes in the playoffs or half your defense is dead or you drew the short straw and have to play the Patriots.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I'm convinced that advance stats were originated by Bills fans with super bowl PTSD to help explain how good their teams actually were instead of just stamping FOUR LOSSES IN A ROW on the city's national landmarks

HyperPuma
Jun 24, 2007

b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but trump is president

Mega64 posted:

Trying to make predictive measurements on a sample size of like twenty games at most of a team where injuries, weather, outlier performances from individuals, and like fifty other factors can easily influence a game to the point where it's never unfathomable that a weak team can upset a strong team.

Advance stats don't matter when your quarterback chokes in the playoffs or half your defense is dead or you drew the short straw and have to play the Patriots.

this is why the only stat that matters is clutch and the only way to measure it is the eye test

really queer Christmas
Apr 22, 2014

HyperPuma posted:

this is why the only stat that matters is clutch and the only way to measure it is the eye test

we still talking about sex

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


I'm pretty certain we have had more covid cases in the league this year -- with a vaccine available -- than we did last year without a vaccine. Is there hard data on this?

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

kiimo posted:

I'm convinced that advance stats were originated by Bills fans with super bowl PTSD to help explain how good their teams actually were instead of just stamping FOUR LOSSES IN A ROW on the city's national landmarks

DVOA was literally made by a Patriots fan in order to prove Tom Brady was good.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

That's less funny and more groan inducing

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

fsif posted:

DVOA was literally made by a Patriots fan in order to prove Tom Brady was good.

God’s work.

King Hong Kong
Nov 6, 2009

For we'll fight with a vim
that is dead sure to win.

kiimo posted:

I'm convinced that advance stats were originated by Bills fans with super bowl PTSD to help explain how good their teams actually were instead of just stamping FOUR LOSSES IN A ROW on the city's national landmarks

I mean, Football Outsiders was created by Pats fans to make up a statistic that justified why the Pats won and were the best ever opposed to more relevant stats like the number of practices Belichick filmed in a given season or the number of non-competitive AFCE teams that essentially let the Pats cruise to a first-round bye.

AndrewP
Apr 21, 2010

fsif posted:

DVOA was literally made by a Patriots fan in order to prove Tom Brady was good.

this is one of my favorite TFF conspiracies

Sour Diesel
Jan 30, 2010

dvoa was made to prove converting first downs was good

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Now whip it
Into shape
Shape it up
Get straight
Go forward
Move ahead
Try to detect it
It's not too late
To whip it
Whip it good

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
oh i forgot about curtis samuel

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



AndrewP posted:

this is one of my favorite TFF conspiracies

I mean it's sorta close. Aaron Schatz is a Patriots fan, and the literal reason he began the process was to prove Ron Borges wrong that the Pats missed the playoffs in 2002 because they couldn't establish the run, and basically turned into a process to show that traditional stats hosed things up and there were teams that did things a much smarter way that wasn't being measured.

Sour Diesel posted:

dvoa was made to prove converting first downs was good

Yeah. And I mean it sounds stupid, but 20 years ago it was real common for talking heads to say you need to take deep shots for stupid as gently caress reasons instead of converting 3rd down into 1st so you could have 3 more chances to score points.

I guess it's like how in baseball teams used to hate walks or something? I don't know I watched a couple of Moneyball clips on youtube once.

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Kalli posted:

I mean it's sorta close. Aaron Schatz is a Patriots fan, and the literal reason he began the process was to prove Ron Borges wrong that the Pats missed the playoffs in 2002 because they couldn't establish the run, and basically turned into a process to show that traditional stats hosed things up and there were teams that did things a much smarter way that wasn't being measured.

Schatz has also been pretty vocal over the years about how DVOA or some stat is usually showing whatever Patriot team is the greatest of all time at converting 2nd and 3 in the 2nd quarter of divisional road games or whatever.

I also remember him getting a ton of air time and attention for being one of the first and biggest defenders of Belichick after the 4th and 2 game in 2009.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

SKULL.GIF posted:

I'm pretty certain we have had more covid cases in the league this year -- with a vaccine available -- than we did last year without a vaccine. Is there hard data on this?

According to Wall Street Journal there were 724 positive cases among players and staff in the league from 08/01/20 to 01/23/2021

According to the NFL, there have been 128 players and 232 personnel since Aug 1 (until Nov 13, most recent release) that have tested positive

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Spoeank posted:

According to Wall Street Journal there were 724 positive cases among players and staff in the league from 08/01/20 to 01/23/2021

According to the NFL, there have been 128 players and 232 personnel since Aug 1 (until Nov 13, most recent release) that have tested positive

Wow, I never would've thought it. Seems there's a lot more reporting this season about positive cases than there was last year, then.

AndrewP
Apr 21, 2010

*Patriots win 1000 Super Bowls*

"Why does DVOA think the Patriots are always good, it must be biased"

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

AndrewP posted:

*Patriots win 1000 Super Bowls*

"Why does DVOA think the Patriots are always good, it must be biased"

Well, it’s actually, “the Patriots are so good, let’s invent an equation that’s biased to produce an output that describes that outcome and then use it to predict other things.”

The question is whether it’s actually predictive and I think the answer is “not very much.”

YOLOsubmarine fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Nov 30, 2021

Hot Diggity!
Apr 3, 2010

SKELITON_BRINGING_U_ON.GIF
Football involves a stupid amount of luck and you can't quantity that

King Hong Kong
Nov 6, 2009

For we'll fight with a vim
that is dead sure to win.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Well, it’s actually, “the Patriots are so good, let’s invent an equation that’s biased to produce an output that describes that outcome and then use it to predict other things.”

The question is whether it’s actually predictive and I think the answer is “not very much.”

Yeah, in all seriousness it’s this.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Hot Diggity! posted:

Football involves a stupid amount of luck and you can't quantity that

Thank god for that

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion

Fallen Rib

Hot Diggity! posted:

Football involves a stupid amount of luck and you can't quantity that

AWS is gonna try, and remind us constantly about it

Isentropy
Dec 12, 2010

Eifert Posting posted:

It sounds like they enforce heavy premiums on pip states (PIP is a state-mandated insurance coverage for auto related injuries). Both Kentucky and Florida have it and Ohio doesn't.


Florida's also one of the most litigious places in the modern world, and the courts are notoriously fond of punitive damages. There are probably insurance companies who deliberately price themselves out of that market to minimize risk. There are a couple of states like Florida and Michigan where deliberately avoiding business is actually a pretty viable strategy for a national-level insurance company.

For the Canadians: "Offer not valid in Quebec"

Lifespan
Mar 5, 2002

wyoak posted:

AWS is gonna try, and remind us constantly about it

There was a 51.8% chance you were going to post that!

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

SKULL.GIF posted:

Wow, I never would've thought it. Seems there's a lot more reporting this season about positive cases than there was last year, then.

I think last year the reports were fighting for time with another major news event

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
https://twitter.com/FourVerts/status/1465538586292502534?t=LSHrcEDzDKyLERSiN0FyUQ&s=19

Seattle worse than the Jets lol

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Oh my god and they owe that pick to the Jets.

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

In a weird coincidence the ESPN season simulator back in the preseason had the Seahawks tied for the worst record.

https://twitter.com/fieldgulls/status/1434948500312178690?s=21

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
I'll give advanced stats one thing, it's convinced more coaches to go for it on fourth and short

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Look at this top 10. Why is the draft not in New York next year?

https://twitter.com/tankathon/status/1465539035057770496

Android Apocalypse
Apr 28, 2009

The future is
AUTOMATED
and you are
OBSOLETE

Illegal Hen

Diva Cupcake posted:

Look at this top 10. Why is the draft not in New York next year?

https://twitter.com/tankathon/status/1465539035057770496

Because Rams ownership duped the NFL into letting them get a new stadium with the carrot of "we can host all sorts of poo poo like the draft from here!"

Still mad the St. Louis settlement means nothing will be revealed in discovery.

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Kirios
Jan 26, 2010




I don't see how the Lions pass up on Aidan Hutchinson. Hometown hero from the big college in the area? Extremely productive, top tier athlete? There'd be a riot if Kayvon was picked instead of him.

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