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News: Views: https://twitter.com/highlghtheaven/status/1465509145843585026?s=20
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Nov 30, 2021 05:32
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I think the Football Team can win like 5 of their last 6 games lol
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Nov 30, 2021 05:33
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I remember when Eric Berry had a pick 2 to seal the win at Atlanta. It's too bad cancer wrecked him.
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Nov 30, 2021 05:35
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I guess I’ll just go close my thread again 
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Nov 30, 2021 05:40
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Can someone explain to me why the gently caress the WFT didn’t kick a field goal to go up 11 points with a minute left?
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Nov 30, 2021 05:46
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Can someone explain to me why the gently caress the WFT didn’t kick a field goal to go up 11 points with a minute left? Kicker got hurt trying to tackle the guy on the kick 2
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Nov 30, 2021 05:46
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seiferguy posted:Kicker got hurt trying to tackle the guy on the kick 2 Lol. They couldn’t get the punter to kick a 25 yarder?
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Nov 30, 2021 05:48
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Lol. They couldn’t get the punter to kick a 25 yarder? When you get a kick blocked and returned for 2 and your kicker pulls his hamstring trying to chase the guy down I imagine you feel a little gunshy about kicking again.
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Nov 30, 2021 05:53
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Lol. They couldn’t get the punter to kick a 25 yarder? I remember one time Seattle's kicker got hurt so they had the punter (normally the holder) go out to line up, and the backup holder botched the snap, went through his hands and the other team picked it up for an easy TD. I'm assuming that's a situation they were avoiding.
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Nov 30, 2021 05:59
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Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it.Kalli posted:Yeah. And I mean it sounds stupid, but 20 years ago it was real common for talking heads to say you need to take deep shots for stupid as gently caress reasons instead of converting 3rd down into 1st so you could have 3 more chances to score points. But the thing is that a 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2 is way more valuable than a three yard run. I assume those two plays aren't treated equally in DVOA, but how does the algorithm weigh the former versus the latter? It's possible (maybe even likely) that DVOA is biased in favor of offenses that convert tons of first downs above all else, but that's almost immaterial at this point anyway. It's loaded with so many opaque calculations that purport to account for game scripts, opponent adjustments, and sometimes even preseason projections, that trying to even meaningfully critique the esoteric percentages it spits out is a fool's errand anyway. It's just an unscientific process where some nerd moved enough toggles on his spreadsheet to finally output the power rankings he wanted. And in spite of all of the highfalutin equations, the explanation for the DVOA rankings always come down to the same concepts that the layperson has talked about for years: this team won by a lot, this team only beat bad teams, and this team had some bad luck with turnovers.
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Nov 30, 2021 06:11
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Pete Carroll Russell Wilson retire bitch
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Nov 30, 2021 06:52
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it's going to be the big qb fight
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Nov 30, 2021 09:30
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Tim Whatley posted:Pete Carroll Russell Wilson retire bitch
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Nov 30, 2021 10:20
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Finding myself in a position where I am rooting for the Texans to win a game of football, questioning the decisions that led me to this point in life.
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Nov 30, 2021 11:49
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The giants will fire their FO and use their 2 top ten draft picks to draft playmakers and go on to win the super bowl.
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Nov 30, 2021 14:54
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fsif posted:Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it. I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb
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Nov 30, 2021 15:04
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The Browns don’t play this week so it is a mercy.
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Nov 30, 2021 15:46
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fsif posted:Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it. Sure, sure. But how is it ranking my team right now? That's all that matters.
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Nov 30, 2021 15:47
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Mr. Nice! posted:I guess I’ll just go close my thread again You gotta link it in the previous N/V if you want it to catch traction, too many posters use bookmarks only these days
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Nov 30, 2021 15:50
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indigi posted:I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb Yeah. Ultimately the game of football is “get 10 yards on four tries”. Repeat until points or until the value of punting on fourth down outweighs the value of going for it on fourth down. A new set of downs gives the team an opportunity to try a 40 yard bomb.
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Nov 30, 2021 15:55
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indigi posted:I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb Stats are dumb. Eye test is all that matters.
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Nov 30, 2021 15:58
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There are bonus points for extra yards past a first downs, as well as scores or being in the red zone. Because converting lots of 3rd and shorts is definitely more predictive then the occasional 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2, but if you can get 40 yards on 3rd and 2, you're definitely winning that game more often in the moment.fsif posted:Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it. DVOA doesn't factor in preseason stuff, that's a different stat, DAVE that they use so they can sort their ranking column in a semi-sensible order so that Green Bay isn't like 25th for all of September because of that blowout loss to the Saints week 1. The formula is built off of this mess, and I'll just excerpt two paragraphs: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods quote:Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value” based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:08
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https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1465697463726055429?s=20
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Nov 30, 2021 16:23
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The formula being secret makes me assume it's fiction and all the numbers are made up.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:25
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YES, more dirt.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:27
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TFF needs to make our own advanced stats algorithm
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Nov 30, 2021 16:33
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sweet thursday posted:TFF needs to make our own advanced stats algorithm ( Wins / Grit ) * Fatmen TDs
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Nov 30, 2021 16:37
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Speaking of the devil, Quick Reads is about how much of an outlier DeSean Jackson is as a deep receiving threat. Dude averages 45 yards per TD reception, and everyone else on the same planet as him is from the bad old days where that was the only kind of pass you could complete: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2021/desean-jackson-and-deep-ball-specialists 
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Nov 30, 2021 16:40
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Well, it's not really surprising. Most of those other players actually do things besides run go routes on every play.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:42
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DeSean Jackson and Daryle Lamonica: name a more iconic duo
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Nov 30, 2021 16:43
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Completion Percentage over Expected is BS too. It's usually thrown out as a barometer of how good a QB is, but:The 33rd Team posted:A potential drawback of CPOE is that the quality of WRs targeted and their separation between defenders are significant factors in whether a pass is completed or not and these are not included in the public model. It realistically should just be a gauge on the offense as a whole.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:45
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always a good sign when your acronym is a transposed letter away from COPE
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Nov 30, 2021 16:46
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indigi posted:I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb Probably but that's not a fair comparison. There's no obvious 1:1 at all, but you'd theoretically want to find a way to measure the consistency and repeatability of the bomb versus an eight-play, dink and dunk sequence that eventually gains 40 yards. When you're predicating your offense on making high-percentage, small gains, you're also opening yourself up for more setbacks on a per-play basis. Every play is an opportunity for a sack, a holding penalty, a drop, a deflection, or even a turnover. Part of how defenses have neutralized the Chiefs' and Bills' offenses this year is by giving them the easy short stuff and just counting on a mistake or two to stall out the drive. Kalli posted:There are bonus points for extra yards past a first downs, as well as scores or being in the red zone. Because converting lots of 3rd and shorts is definitely more predictive then the occasional 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2, but if you can get 40 yards on 3rd and 2, you're definitely winning that game more often in the moment. Right, but that all comes down to we have no idea how those two plays are weighed against one another. All FO can do is say "we account for that!", but we don't know by how much. If I posit that DVOA overvalues converting third and short versus being able to consistently generate large chunk plays, there is absolutely no way to check. I believe that FO is actually attempting to operate in good faith in spite of the Pats fan ribbing I do, but there are implicit biases in the formula that we can never tease out because it's just a rat's nest of confounding variables.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:46
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never argue again why the lions are on thanksgiving https://twitter.com/SportsTVRatings/status/1465710413824204810
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Nov 30, 2021 17:01
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Lol bills saints didn’t beat the parade
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Nov 30, 2021 17:05
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The Lions always get the first game when everyone is eating and not paying much attention right?
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Nov 30, 2021 17:09
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The Lions always get the first game when everyone is eating and not paying much attention right? I dunno but they should get that block of time after everyone has eaten and is either falling sleep in a chair or taking a huge dump.
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Nov 30, 2021 17:12
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EvilBlackRailgun posted:Lol bills saints didn’t beat the parade Inflatable Goku > Trevor Siemian.
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Nov 30, 2021 17:12
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IMO even if you didn’t have Detroit in there and stuck in the Jags, you would get similar ratings. Think of it more of a captive home audience to gather around TV while everything is closed and there is less distraction. Detroit is not the ratings maker but then again maybe the family will bond around making GBS threads on them vs arguing about Trump or whatever
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Nov 30, 2021 17:17
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| # ? Apr 25, 2024 18:44 |
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LiquidFriend posted:I remember when Eric Berry had a pick 2 to seal the win at Atlanta.
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Nov 30, 2021 17:31
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