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Kalit posted:This is a hell of a claim. "Dark money flooded into a campaign in the final months of the race, helping it overtake the rival campaign that had been leading it by double-digits up to that point" is not really that outlandish of a claim. It certainly wouldn't be the first time in the history of electoral politics that such a thing has happened. quote:Maybe you should just be open to the possibility that residents of the 11th district liked Brown better. Especially since Turner still had raised more money than Brown even if you include the DMFI PAC money. The DMFI PAC money wasn't the only dark money that flowed into Brown's campaign; you'd know that if you had read the article that you just posted there (which is the same one I posted earlier). I'd be far more willing to accept that the residents of the 11th district liked Brown better if it weren't an extremely low-turnout election. 76,844 total voters, who were disproportionately white in a heavily black district of 705,659 people, does not strike me as a particularly representative sample of the district. 7c Nickel posted:Because you're doomed to failure if you refuse to engage with the world as it exists. I mean, I agree, but part of accepting the world as it exists is acknowledging that things like dark money from powerful interest groups can and often do have an outsized impact on how elections play out. I don't think the left's project is hopeless by any means, but I do think we need to acknowledge how much the deck is stacked against us when it comes to the American electoral system. This is why I see more potential to change things for the better through direction action, as opposed to electoral politics. Majorian fucked around with this message at 01:43 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 01:41
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Convo about elites has me thinkin' about Obama droppin' g's off gerunds when he's tryin' to be lookin' like a workin' stiff.FlamingLiberal posted:I'm not sure why this took them 24 hours, but good Andy just can't help himself from being a massive jerk, even now he's out of office and even when he channels it through a spox: quote:Rich Azzopardi, a spokesman for Andrew Cuomo, called the latest release of transcripts, documents and videos a "manipulated release."
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Dec 1, 2021 01:47
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Majorian posted:"Dark money flooded into a campaign in the final months of the race, helping it overtake the rival campaign that had been leading it by double-digits up to that point" is not really that outlandish of a claim. It certainly wouldn't be the first time in the history of electoral politics that such a thing has happened. Final months? The campaign was just months long. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought most of the dark money flowed into the race in the final weeks of the campaign? From that article: quote:Some ads came from the candidates. Others were funded by dark money groups that have latched on to the nationally-watched primary. All of it has sown division in the final weeks of the race that could leave Democrats in northeast Ohio splintered and in need of a way forward. Majorian posted:The DMFI PAC money wasn't the only dark money that flowed into Brown's campaign; you'd know that if you had read the article that you just posted there (which is the same one I posted earlier). I'd be far more willing to accept that the residents of the 11th district liked Brown better if it weren't an extremely low-turnout election. 76,844 total voters, who were disproportionately white in a heavily black district of 705,659 people, does not strike me as a particularly representative sample of the district. The turnout was about the same as 2020 and was higher than 2018: https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_11th_Congressional_District And this was an off state/national election year. If you want to blame the turnout, maybe Turner should have ran a campaign that was more inspirational to those who hadn't turned out in previous years? So, no, I am still completely failing to see how this dark money changed the outcome of this primary. Kalit fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 01:52
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Willa Rogers posted:Convo about elites has me thinkin' about Obama droppin' g's off gerunds when he's tryin' to be lookin' like a workin' stiff. Obama is certainly a piece of poo poo but I'm not about to start policing the code switches of a black man.
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Dec 1, 2021 01:52
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Majorian posted:The DMFI PAC money wasn't the only dark money that flowed into Brown's campaign; you'd know that if you had read the article that you just posted there (which is the same one I posted earlier). I'd be far more willing to accept that the residents of the 11th district liked Brown better if it weren't an extremely low-turnout election. 76,844 total voters, who were disproportionately white in a heavily black district of 705,659 people, does not strike me as a particularly representative sample of the district. You're providing an example even as you deny it. Brown won the areas that were heavily black and jewish while Turner did better in whiter areas.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:00
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7c Nickel posted:Because you're doomed to failure if you refuse to engage with the world as it exists. We trot out "Thus, by a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak." so often it has its own smiley, but we neglect the line after it "Fascist governments are condemned to lose wars because they are constitutionally incapable of objectively evaluating the force of the enemy." This doesn’t feel like an honest read of what I posted. I think anyone with a decently working class background and affect could pick this thread up. And it’s not about bashing dems, it’s basic class politics. People know the suits aren’t looking out for them. It’s absolutely a losing proposition to keep running HR types.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:09
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7c Nickel posted:This was started because selec had a stupid fantasy that a big tough traditionally masculine man could unite the country by making GBS threads on the dems. The truth is that most Democrats LIKE the Democrats. This is weird because I've been repeatedly assured that the Dems are not a monolith and selec only shat on Clinton.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:18
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Gumball Gumption posted:You know it's because Republicans wanted Brown, right? Like, you understand the implications of what happened when Buffalo liberals had an option between who they sided with? The state GOP assisted in getting Brown his win and are open about it. This was not a good thing for the health of the party. I kind of get looking at it this way - it absolutely describes, for example, Lieberman winning the 2006 race in CT after losing the primary - but I don't think it really applies because the city of Buffalo has few Republicans. Brown won with 70% of the vote in 2013 and 68% in 2017 (with the leading contender in 2017 actually a Reform Party candidate with no Republican even on the ballot.) Like it or not, I think Brown was simply much more popular with Buffalo voters and Walton only won the primary because she ran a really good campaign in a primary that had very low turnout, as do most primaries.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:19
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Willa Rogers posted:Convo about elites has me thinkin' about Obama droppin' g's off gerunds when he's tryin' to be lookin' like a workin' stiff.  George W Bush dumbing down his speech by several grade levels between his TX gubernatorial run and presidential run is probably a better example of this. Also, "elites" in the context of right-wing rhetoric means Jews. Same with cabal, globalists, international bankers, financiers, and most mentions of New York City. Youth Decay fucked around with this message at 02:28 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 02:25
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7c Nickel posted:You're providing an example even as you deny it. Brown won the areas that were heavily black and jewish while Turner did better in whiter areas. Oops, you're right, I misremembered. Kalit posted:Final months? The campaign was just months long. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought most of the dark money flowed into the race in the final weeks of the campaign? From that article: Dark money groups and Republican operatives were donating to Brown as early as February, (which is when DMFI endorsed Turner), so "months" would probably be more accurate: quote:Democratic Majority for Israel, a hybrid PAC/super PAC that has spent $1.2 million on ads supporting Brown and opposing Turner in the election, also has a slew of donors who have made ample donations to Republican candidates and causes. Leonard Feinstein, who donated $25,000 to DMFI on June 14, has made large contributions to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Republican Party of Cuyahoga County, and to committees supporting Republican Rick Berg’s 2012 campaign for Senate in North Dakota. quote:The turnout was about the same as 2020 and was higher than 2018: https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_11th_Congressional_District In 2018 and 2020, Marcia Fudge was the longtime incumbent, and thus a shoo-in for the nomination. The fact that a primary for her replacement didn't beat the turnout in two primaries where she was basically guaranteed to win suggests that this was a low turnout primary. e: lol in 2018 she didn't even have any token challengers. She was uncontested for the nomination, and she may has well have been in 2020. Majorian fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 02:30
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Mellow Seas posted:I kind of get looking at it this way - it absolutely describes, for example, Lieberman winning the 2006 race in CT after losing the primary - but I don't think it really applies because the city of Buffalo has few Republicans. Brown won with 70% of the vote in 2013 and 68% in 2017 (with the leading contender in 2017 actually a Reform Party candidate with no Republican even on the ballot.) https://buffalonews.com/news/local/...44df18589e.html Yeah, this is not a good thing for the health of the party. They can't both be the coup attempting Republicans and your good friends.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:33
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Personally I think "engaging with the world as it is" as a leftist means not wasting your time and resources buoying a political party that hates you under the quixotic delusion that they'll for some reason yield control to you if you perfectly run their maze like a good little rat, but some disagree
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Dec 1, 2021 02:36
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Majorian posted:Dark money groups and Republican operatives were donating to Brown as early as February, (which is when DMFI endorsed Turner), so "months" would probably be more accurate: I'm only seeing where people donated to DMFI months prior? Which, last time I checked, wouldn't affect the race/influence polling in the Turner/Brown primary at all? So once again, how did dark money change the outcome of this primary election?
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Dec 1, 2021 02:42
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Kalit posted:I'm only seeing where people donated to DMFI months prior? Which, last time I checked, wouldn't affect the race/influence polling in the Turner/Brown primary at all? Given that DMFI spent that money on attack ads against Turner that cast her as a rabid antisemite, the effects are pretty obvious. e: \/\/\/ socialsecurity posted:Do you say the same about the Russian funded ads and bot marketing during 2016? Yes, I did. You can look back through my posting history if you like. In fact, I was a (light) believer in Russiagate for a while, embarrassing though that is to admit. Majorian fucked around with this message at 02:54 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 02:49
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Majorian posted:Given that DMFI spent that money on attack ads against Turner that cast her as a rabid antisemite, the effects are pretty obvious. Do you say the same about the Russian funded ads and bot marketing during 2016?
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Dec 1, 2021 02:52
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socialsecurity posted:Do you say the same about the Russian funded ads and bot marketing during 2016? This is whataboutism
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Dec 1, 2021 02:54
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Mellow Seas posted:I kind of get looking at it this way - it absolutely describes, for example, Lieberman winning the 2006 race in CT after losing the primary - but I don't think it really applies because the city of Buffalo has few Republicans. Brown won with 70% of the vote in 2013 and 68% in 2017 (with the leading contender in 2017 actually a Reform Party candidate with no Republican even on the ballot.) One thing that gets left out of a lot of talk about how Buffalo mayoral races are often low turnout is that NYS has really modernized its voting laws the last few years. Early voting, easier absentee voting still due to covid, and so on. Accessibility has increased. The time was incredibly ripe for a compelling candidate to get higher turnout than historic norms. It wouldn't have needed to be presidential or midterm level to blow a write-in campaign out of the water, even a well-funded campaign for an established name. I don't really think Walton's ideas were unpopular so much as her not campaigning as well in the general and alienating some important allies (like the scab labor thing apparently.) But it's also not a thing where the the silent leftist majority will turn out to anyone unafraid to say the S word, either. This was a race that was totally winnable by the left, had the voters been effectively sold on the candidate, the ideas, or both. The fact that neither happened is not on her opponent or his supporters.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:54
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Majorian posted:"Dark money flooded into a campaign in the final months of the race, helping it overtake the rival campaign that had been leading it by double-digits up to that point" is not really that outlandish of a claim Kalit posted:Final months? The campaign was just months long. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought most of the dark money flowed into the race in the final weeks of the campaign? From that article: Majorian posted:Given that DMFI spent that money on attack ads against Turner that cast her as a rabid antisemite, the effects are pretty obvious. I admire the goalposts you keep moving 
Kalit fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 02:55
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Personally I think "engaging with the world as it is" as a leftist means not wasting your time and resources buoying a political party that hates you under the quixotic delusion that they'll for some reason yield control to you if you perfectly run their maze like a good little rat, but some disagree And we are allowed to disagree.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:55
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socialsecurity posted:Do you say the same about the Russian funded ads and bot marketing during 2016? Are you seriously trying to compare a foreign power spending <.1% of a campaign's war chest to influence an election vs a foreign power spending >40% of a campaign's war chest
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Dec 1, 2021 02:58
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Killer robot posted:One thing that gets left out of a lot of talk about how Buffalo mayoral races are often low turnout is that NYS has really modernized its voting laws the last few years. Early voting, easier absentee voting still due to covid, and so on. Accessibility has increased. The time was incredibly ripe for a compelling candidate to get higher turnout than historic norms. It wouldn't have needed to be presidential or midterm level to blow a write-in campaign out of the water, even a well-funded campaign for an established name. The party could have respected the primary and put support behind her and reach a compromise. It's a big tent party so there's room for everyone. Instead they accepted help from fascists.
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Dec 1, 2021 02:58
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Kalit posted:I admire the goalposts you keep moving My argument's the same as it's been since we began this discussion: dark money had a significant effect on the outcome of the 2021 OH-11 Democratic primary. I'm not entirely sure what your rebuttal to that argument is, beyond "nuh-uh."
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Dec 1, 2021 02:59
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Youth Decay posted:
lol, no it doesn't; you're buying into the excuse to never go after capital because of imaginary anti-semitism. That excuse has been used by the elite in the Democratic party to stifle any criticism of regulatory capture and bought-and-sold politics. Can't critique Jamie Dimon, no matter what stupid poo poo he pulls or says, because you're Jew-bashing! eta: I've seen plenty of conservatives, including Jews, use the same rhetoric too. It's the same arguments as those behind anti-BDS laws you see among pols of both parties all the time. *** Speaking of capital, buckle up for the ride: quote:Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retires the word 'transitory' in describing inflation https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-retires-the-word-transitory-in-describing-inflation-162510896.html Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 03:06 on Dec 1, 2021 |
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Dec 1, 2021 03:01
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Willa Rogers posted:lol, no it doesn't; you're buying into the excuse to never go after capital because of imaginary anti-semitism. It doesn't mean jews as much anymore, unless attached to "globalist", but it certainly doesn't mean elites. They have no issues with elites, all their heroes are elites. It's just "traitor white people"
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Dec 1, 2021 03:07
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Willa Rogers posted:Speaking of capital, buckle up for the ride: It seems that Powell's analysis is that prices will stabilize, but that the inflation we've experienced suggests that the underlying level of inflation is higher than it was before the pandemic-related supply shocks - so maybe it will settle into being something more like 3% than 2%. I don't think "buckle up, inflation is about to SOAR!" is really the message he's sending there.
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Dec 1, 2021 03:09
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Gumball Gumption posted:The party could have respected the primary and put support behind her and reach a compromise. It's a big tent party so there's room for everyone. Instead they accepted help from fascists. You're right, it is a big tent party. It'd have to be for someone like loving Chuck Schumer among others to back a self-described socialist. But somehow she still didn't drive enough votes to beat in a write-in campaign that pulled so-so numbers. Actually, come to think, your response doesn't have much to do with my post at all. Did you mean to reply to someone else, or just forget to respond to anything I said in it?
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Dec 1, 2021 03:09
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Majorian posted:My argument's the same as it's been since we began this discussion: dark money had a significant effect on the outcome of the 2021 OH-11 Democratic primary. I'm not entirely sure what your rebuttal to that argument is, beyond "nuh-uh." Once again, whoosh goes the goalposts  Majorian posted:You had a primary in Ohio showing how much of an impact dark money can have on an off-year primary actually. Turns out, it's enough to swing that primary. You were trying to make the claim it changed the outcome of that election, without providing any evidence beyond saying "see, money!!!" Like I stated before, maybe you should consider the possibility that Brown was just a better candidate in the eyes of that district?
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Dec 1, 2021 03:15
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Mellow Seas posted:It seems that Powell's analysis is that prices will stabilize, but that the inflation we've experienced suggests that the underlying level of inflation is higher than it was before the pandemic-related supply shocks - so maybe it will settle into being something more like 3% than 2%. I don't think "buckle up, inflation is about to SOAR!" is really the message he's sending there. It's too bad nuance and mass media don't mix. Our mainstream politiicans also aren't fighting the narrative hard enough that this inflation is supposedly all due to government spending, so I expect everyone in power to do all the wrong things (hike interest rates which will kill employment and start layoffs while engaging in austerity instead of greater human infrastructure investing out of some misplaced sense of fiscal responsibility) and make everything worse.
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Dec 1, 2021 03:16
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Kalit posted:Once again, whoosh goes the goalposts Well, since then I've provided a lot of evidence substantiating my claim that it had an effect on the election, so...where's your evidence that it didn't affect the outcome of the election?
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Dec 1, 2021 03:18
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Majorian posted:Well, since then I've provided a lot of evidence substantiating my claim that it had an effect on the election, so...where's your evidence that it didn't affect the outcome of the election? I keep trying to provide things such as Kalit posted:Final months? The campaign was just months long. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought most of the dark money flowed into the race in the final weeks of the campaign? From that article: But then you keep ignoring it and then pointing to irrelevant points, such as when DMFI PAC received contributions and not when DMFI PAC starting heavily pumping money into the primary. The sooner leftists like you start realizing that maybe electoral strategies need to change, the sooner we can actually get progressives elected on a larger scale. Until then, keep yelling into the void about how the current strategies would work just fine if it wasn't for those unfair libs, I guess 
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Dec 1, 2021 03:30
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| # ? Apr 26, 2024 13:33 |
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 December CE thread is up https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3986569
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Dec 1, 2021 03:34
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