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It could always be worse!
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Dec 31, 2021 19:59
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A GLISTENING HODOR posted:As a Nintendo lover and NTDOY bag holder, I have no idea why the company that exists solely to print gobs of money is down so hard. Pokémon go short that stock
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Dec 31, 2021 20:00
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Ooops, I thought market was closed today.
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Dec 31, 2021 20:04
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Congrats to Cathie for achieving a return of -24.1% on her ARKK ETF in a year that the S&P500 gained 26.9% and QQQ gained 28.6%. Absolute legend.
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Dec 31, 2021 23:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Congrats to Cathie for achieving a return of -24.1% on her ARKK ETF in a year that the S&P500 gained 26.9% and QQQ gained 28.6%. Absolute legend. This is why I don't check my Roth IRA.
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Dec 31, 2021 23:12
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I got 31.71% I my IRA this year  let's not talk about the 0.22% my larger long term got. (it was long term + gambling hybrid port at the start of year) I may have made a terrible mistake early in the year. I split my "long term" port in the summer and got the gambling part to 10% profit over the July deposit, that feels in line.
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Dec 31, 2021 23:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Congrats to Cathie for achieving a return of -24.1% on her ARKK ETF in a year that the S&P500 gained 26.9% and QQQ gained 28.6%. Absolute legend. Ha, actually just read an article that says ARKK investors, on average, did even worse than the total returns would suggest, due to bad timing: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1071658/ark-innovation-an-object-lesson-in-how-not-to-invest
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Dec 31, 2021 23:38
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I have initiated phase one of my Roth IRA yolo, and moved it all to money markets. I have called the top, you heard it here first, now to wait for the crash and figure out step 2.
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Jan 1, 2022 00:01
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FateFree posted:I have initiated phase one of my Roth IRA yolo, and moved it all to money markets. I have called the top, you heard it here first, now to wait for the crash and figure out step 2. And so it was confirmed that we would see another 69 ATHs by June
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Jan 1, 2022 00:05
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FateFree posted:I have initiated phase one of my Roth IRA yolo, and moved it all to money markets. I have called the top, you heard it here first, now to wait for the crash and figure out step 2. I see from your earlier post this month you are looking to turn $30k -> $1M in 10 years. Your opening move is a money market account with 0.01% yields? If you're so sure of this crash, why not go into some triple inverse ETF or something
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Jan 1, 2022 00:17
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Vox Nihili posted:And so it was confirmed that we would see another 69 ATHs by June *looks at ytd chart* *draws straight line* My technical analysis sees a trend
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Jan 1, 2022 00:19
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so do people still not understand what a recall is, because this is just Tesla deciding to fix trunk latches on a bunch of their cars... all major auto manufacturers issue recalls all the time. like it's not good news, but I keep seeing people think "recall" means "buy back the car and crush it" or something
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Jan 1, 2022 00:36
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Jumped into individual stocks around January of 2021 with all the meme stocks. Realized my big fault is always waiting too long thinking things will just continue to get bigger…which might have happened like twice. Oh I also really believe in the gamblers fallacy. Played with options, got hosed on options, lost $700 of gambling money thru Robinhood. It’s fitting that I won a free year of YNAB today…I’ll go back to my Roth IRA and 401k.
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Jan 1, 2022 01:02
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Lost about a thousand bucks betting the market would fail a few times this year. Made many several thousands just buying FAANGs. Lesson?
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Jan 1, 2022 01:15
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drk posted:I see from your earlier post this month you are looking to turn $30k -> $1M in 10 years. I am sure of absolutely nothing!
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Jan 1, 2022 01:17
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FateFree posted:I am sure of absolutely nothing! You're the perfect index investor! Really though, dont leave money in a money market right now. Its the worst kind of bet, a bet that is guaranteed to lose money in real terms. Personally, the most conservative thing I'd invest in is a short term bond fund or something. Negligible yields (1% or so right now), but thats two orders of magnitude more than a money market, and should be very very low risk (a bad year you might lose 1 or 2%). drk fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Jan 1, 2022 |
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Jan 1, 2022 01:48
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drk posted:You're the perfect index investor! Really though, dont leave money in a money market right now. money market vs short-term bonds, total return, past 6 months:  short-term bonds are in pain due to the fed beginning a hiking cycle. they are also guaranteed to lose money in real terms (if not TIPS), but might also lose money in nominal terms, too!
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Jan 1, 2022 01:53
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2021 was the sort of bad year I am talking about, but cherry picking the past 6 months makes it look worse because the market priced in two rate hikes that haven't happened yet during that time. I guess my point was, if you cant even bother to take on the low risk of such a boring fund, you probably dont have the stomach for investing.
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Jan 1, 2022 02:09
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drk posted:2021 was the sort of bad year I am talking about, but cherry picking the past 6 months makes it look worse because the market priced in two rate hikes that haven't happened yet during that time. well, I agree with your point about needing to be able to take risk. I just wanted to note that bonds have not been great for the past year and there's a REALLY good chance that doesn't change in 2022. Here's a 1-year chart since you objected to the 6-month chart. Every duration of vanguard bond funds is down in total return for 2021: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BND,BSV,BIV,BLV&n=252&O=011000 also, I think that you should compare the return in basis points instead of the 2-orders of magnitude multiple, more or less dividing by zero. that sort of comparison is basically chamath math: https://twitter.com/smargach/status/1368388290970329094?s=20 overall, if you're not gonna be in something interesting right now, there's no real benefit to unhedged short term bonds vs. money market this fact is also illustrated by the $1.9 trillion dollar uptake in the fed reverse repo facility by money market funds to get 5 bps overnight instead of holding treasury bills
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Jan 1, 2022 02:18
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pmchem posted:
This is a fair point. BSV is currently yielding 95 basis points more than Vanguard's VMRXX (yield 1 bp). In absolute terms, that isnt that much, but its not nothing. Anyways, this was a dumb derail. I have some BSV in my emergency fund and I've been happy with how its done for the purpose. Pretty much no one under retirement age should be holding that or money market funds in an IRA. Someone looking for 30x returns in 10 years really shouldnt be.
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Jan 1, 2022 02:44
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Oh my god taxes are insane what morons did we vote into office (most recently) I'm selling some stocks from 30 years ago that are about 95% capital gains and figured I'd split it up over three tax years by selling a third each today, Monday, and a year from now I briefly get to hold onto some money but then the good state of Oregon and the demon cracker rear end nation we live in are helping themselves to 48.8%
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Jan 1, 2022 02:50
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The top federal capital gains rate is 20%, plus a little more if you are ultra high income. What weird situation is taking you to 48.8%?
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Jan 1, 2022 02:54
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I think my marginal tax rate on my long term cap gains this year is 33%. Considering my requirements were, 'have assets' and nothing else, I'll take that poo poo costs money. Maybe we don't need to spend $1T on planes though. Short term cap gains are something like 46%.
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Jan 1, 2022 02:54
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https://twitter.com/kylascan/status/1476999553513631744 2021 markets year in review. Happy new year.
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Jan 1, 2022 03:05
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drk posted:The top federal capital gains rate is 20%, plus a little more if you are ultra high income. the situation where I read the table wrong, of course!! Oregon taxes my capital gains as income and I forgot that kindly, generous Uncle Sam is only taking 20%
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Jan 1, 2022 03:09
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That 20% rate only kicks in after roughly $500k of annual income, which is a good problem to have. Otherwise, 15%
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Jan 1, 2022 03:16
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drk posted:That 20% rate only kicks in after roughly $500k of annual income, which is a good problem to have. Otherwise, 15% Well I believe GGGC had an $8 million house sale this year
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Jan 1, 2022 04:13
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Oh my god taxes are insane what morons did we vote into office (most recently) The good state of Oregon thanks you for our 2 lane highway to nowhere. It's probably near McMinnville
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Jan 1, 2022 05:15
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Happy New Year! Let's make it a goal to underperform the S&P 500 this and every year thereafter.
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Jan 1, 2022 06:54
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pmchem posted:money market vs short-term bonds, total return, past 6 months: To be fair, I think he meant buy actual bonds, not a bond fund with a NAV.
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Jan 1, 2022 21:23
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Leperflesh posted:To be fair, I think he meant buy actual bonds, not a bond fund with a NAV. since he mentions BSV in a reply, I'm gonna disagree here
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Jan 1, 2022 23:25
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Year end scorecard, looks like I made around an extra 6% on top of my regular returns by taking on extra risk through selling puts, using my invested equity as collateral in a margin account. Not too bad, got hammered a bit in the last couple months or it would have been a lot better. This *is* factoring in some positions that I took delivery on and haven't realized the losses on yet. I usually close out the position instead of taking delivery. But on a few of these I think they got punished unfairly and are trading below where they should be, so I took the stock. Biggest single win, selling a *shitload* of leap puts on GME at a 5 strike for a dollar each (thanks pmchem). Biggest single loss (so far, still holding), selling way oom puts on CURV after their 2Q earnings beat and then getting stuck with the stock after they took a big one time charge in 3Q and said they were experiencing "supply chain issues" and a "challenging environment". Can't believe I'm holding a bunch of equity in a large lady lingerie company, but their forward PE is 9 (if that one time charge is really one time), and supply chain issues seem way overblown. This sort of trading seems to fit my style, just grinding it out. Selling insurance when I think its overvalued. Obviously since the Fed started pumping money into the economy this strategy has worked out pretty well. We'll see how I do this year! Baddog fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Jan 1, 2022 |
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Jan 1, 2022 23:33
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Queued up my back door Roth + HSA transfers for Monday. What wildly irresponsible equity moves should I make with $9550 or should I be boring and get FLOWX / FCAEX? I sort of want to buy more HCP in my HSA. E: don’t say SOFI because that’s already all over every one of my accounts at a cost basis of like $16 
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Jan 2, 2022 01:42
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movax posted:Queued up my back door Roth + HSA transfers for Monday. I need to pro-actively do a backdoor Roth at the start of the year, how are you setting that up? I have this old link but am not sure if it's a good guide: https://www.physicianonfire.com/backdoor/ Also, let's assume that somehow all your income stops after 1 month. There's no penalty to pre-emptively doing a backdoor Roth when you end up under the cutoff, right? Intriguing under-the-radar potential longs for 2021 that are still reasonably priced, alphabetical order, with current price and brief thoughts: $AMKR, 24.8, semi production chain $BBY, 101.6, price action is terrible but they just keep performing $FOXA, 36.9, election year and boomers $KDP, 36.9, S&P 500 addition coming $MOS, 39.3 (getting pricey), fertilizer supercycle $PINS, 36.4, potential acquisition and "cheap" tech $TWTR, 43.2, it's an amazing site and @jack is no longer CEO, that's the entire thesis (price near 52w low) $VIAC, 30.2, potential acquisition and trump base loves PlutoTV $VSTO, 46.1 (currently long, may as well list it). ammo shortage and price hikes remain undefeated $X, 23.8, crazy cheap p/e, steel supercycle incoming if tariffs remain largely intact I'd be interested in anyone's comments on those stocks. have a look at their numbers. 2021 highlight: making about $3k in 30 minutes on a GME put during its most batshit crazy day
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Jan 2, 2022 02:06
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poisonpill posted:Lost about a thousand bucks betting the market would fail a few times this year. Made many several thousands just buying FAANGs. Lesson? You're due. Gamble more.
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Jan 2, 2022 02:29
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Red posted:You're due. Gamble more. Stock Trading Thread: You’re due. Gamble more.
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Jan 2, 2022 02:32
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pmchem posted:I need to pro-actively do a backdoor Roth at the start of the year, how are you setting that up? I have this old link but am not sure if it's a good guide: I just transfer into my Trad IRA in Fidelity, and then transfer from that to my Roth. Whatever tax forms they generate at the end of the year, my accountant does whatever is needed and IRS seems to be happy with it. Not sure about your other question though.
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Jan 2, 2022 02:50
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pmchem posted:Intriguing under-the-radar potential longs for 2021 that are still reasonably priced, alphabetical order, with current price and brief thoughts: I like AMKR; semiconductor packaging is an under-appreciated portion of the industry. Right now, everyone is die-limited as fabs can't keep up so I don't think packaging is the limiting factor, but the demand is more-or-less coupled -- you got to have something to put your shiny new dies in. KDP is interesting; I've had KO for years but never really thought about Keurig. I got out of TWTR awhile ago, didn't realize how much they had gotten pummeled -- what was that about? It's back at 2015 levels -- has to be some room to run I imagine. Did the market not like @jack?
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Jan 2, 2022 03:40
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Twitter has something like 325 million active users officially Some 25-75 million of those users are bots either like an automated earthquake monitor thing, or a traditional pump and dump user Twitter hasn't shown any kind of growth or especially break out growth in like seven years, vs like Facebook which has been growth limited by the number of people on the planet with reliable internet access. If you read the articles everyone claims Twitter is still growing but if you look at worldwide active users they hit 300 million in 2015 and basically sat flat the last six years Twitter also isn't considered a mass media advertising platform by anybody with more than a million dollars in advertising revenue Twitter probably considers me an active user even though the only time I've interacted with their site was to view a badly cropped image from another thread on this site, gently caress em
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Jan 2, 2022 04:42
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pmchem posted:since he mentions BSV in a reply, I'm gonna disagree here Oh. Yeah, right you are.
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Jan 2, 2022 05:11
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