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Year in review of bad decisions May 18 Pitched my mother in law on $GOON @ $2.17 (  )May 22 Expressed interest in $SOFI Jun 24 Bought some CPER 3% increase EOY Jul 1 bought first option Jul 27 suprised DUOL (duo lingo) is priced so high, initial price $105, peaked sept 22nd @ $202, currently at $106 a dollar above offer price Jul 29 think market will correct 15% sometime between oct '21 and may '22, predict self will end year 25% YoY gains Aug 1 announce pulling out of all positions except $GOON, SOFI PCG RICK, goon has crashed, sofi currently crashed, PCG up 50%, RICK up 20% EOY Aug 2 predict brick and mortar stock to get "turbofucked" due to supply shortages in December shopping season Aug 3 sold off all my SPY @ $438, currently at $475 Aug 4 predict 12% market correction over august 1 numbers (SPY @ $438, oct 4 hits $427) Aug 4 predict delta will burn itself out by christmas (Dec 28 CDC reports only 58% of cases are omicron, indicating 42% of the surge is delta) Aug 12 cash out PCG with 6% winnings, lose out on the other 14% of growth Aug 12 bought MRNA @ $222 in Jun, cash out at $391, EOY @ $253.00 Aug 12 speculation on sofi rally on earnings Sep 1 bought some BOAT at $28.43 currently up 4.5% @ $29.75 Sep 20 Evergrande disaster, markets down 6% Sep 20 Sold some SOFI jan 2024 LEAPS for $5.80, currently valued at $6.88 Oct 2 Suggest "Catching the knife" on MRK @ $81, climbs to $94 on Nov 4, EOY @ $76.51, "My guess is that by close of market Tuesday it bottoms out again at $77.00, and by Christmas we see FDA emergency auth and a pop to $83.00 (7.8% ROI)". It DID bottom out at $77, two weeks later on Oct 18, had the rally to $90 which was higher than the $83 guess. Oct 20 question ARTPUP's decision to buy 1000 shares of OPGN @ $2.07, now trading at $1.00 EOY -50% Oct 20 SOFI prediction: "1) user growth/revenue growth hits at/above projections, and Q3 user growth is ahead of target. Current $25/share target means that they will hit their expected growth targets charted out internally by SoFi through 2025 with a P:E of ~12:1 which is looking entirely reasonable. This is all pre bank charter numbers, and doesn't account for future non Bank growth past 2025" which does happen, analysts continue to hold $25 price target, however SOFI EOY @ $15.79  Oct 25 trump's DWAC spac thing happens, made some money Oct 29 "I'd bet on Texas Instruments before I bought Intel" INTC @ $49, EOY $51.55; TXN @ $187, EOY $188 Nov 1 predict SLV will hit $23, EOY $21.58 Nov 2 jokingly "Really looking forward to SoFi doing a CRTX Nov 11, after I've been hyping it for weeks" is down 32% EOY since Nov 11 Nov 2 SPY @ $461 predict SPY to $488 by Nov 5, is $468 Nov 3 predict 52W high of SOFI 28 unless it memes, so far correct Nov 4 "MRNA future growth is priced in at this point" @ $284, currently coasting at $253 Nov 5 "RIVN is virtually guaranteed to be a meme stock" is a meme stock on Nov 10  Nov 9 Cash out everything but SOFI (sofi is up ~60% at this point) up 106% Nov 9 "My guess is cpi inflation tops 6%, heading towards 7%" inflation was reported 6.2% nov 10, 6.8% dec 10 Nov 9 bought more SLV options because past results predict future returns (?!?  )Nov 10 bought more SLV options Nov 10 Evergrande defaults Nov 11 roll SOFI calls forward to 2024 Nov 11 "Short Disney long, they've run out of ideas on growth, load up on draft kings" DIS was $162, now $154 (-5%); DKNG was $41, now $27 (-35%) Nov 16 skeptical on BLZE (Backblaze), down -10.53% EOY below IPO Nov 26 omicron begins Dec 1 think HCP a good idea; opens @ $81 jumps to 91.04 EOY +12.17% Dec 2 still making bad decisions about buying $22 SLV calls Dec 7 predict 9 more months of covid Dec 7 "inflation posts 6.8-7.0% and December CPI (January report) is 7.2% before it floats down to the high 5s and stays there until September". Dec 10 inflation posts 6.8% Dec 10 "My guess is SoFi gets their charter and outperforms the market for Q4"  Dec 20 "My guess is SPY trades flat or under $470 through mid January" closes that day @ $454, three days later it crosses $470, currently @ $475
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Jan 2, 2022 08:24
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movax posted:Queued up my back door Roth + HSA transfers for Monday. 90 DTE slightly OTM SPY calls
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Jan 2, 2022 13:29
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I am more of an optimist and so I'm not allowed to review my bad decisions from the year (outside of tax season).  Thankfully I have made money.
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Jan 2, 2022 17:40
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I bought some COST last year in the mid-300s, watched it drop 10% (as everything else was bouncing back during recovery!) and hosed off, now it's in the mid-500s. Same case for CVS last year, somehow the efficient market let them tank somewhat while they were busier than ever, then leapfrogged in price once I lost patience. Entered/exited in the 70s, now it's at 103. I played around with RYCEY and left before it climbed back up. Messed with some meme stocks / reddit pump-and-dumps that turned out in my favor thanks to locking in gains. LCID can do whatever it wants, I'm purely in the green with them at this point, made up for a lot of dumb losses. Keeping track of all my wins/losses, and why I got in or out, has been very educational from a behavioral viewpoint. Won't help me predict the future, but learning from one's mistakes is never a bad thing. (Indexes did fine, of course.)
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Jan 2, 2022 18:28
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Vox Nihili posted:Congrats to Cathie for achieving a return of -24.1% on her ARKK ETF in a year that the S&P500 gained 26.9% and QQQ gained 28.6%. Absolute legend. I still remember that Twitter chain that ripped apart her team's questionable qualifications and weird ETF "rebalancing". Cathie Wood was a fluke success story and even now all of ARK's portfolios are still poorly diversified and reliant on "$TSLA and $ROKU guud  "
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Jan 2, 2022 19:21
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Some winter reading, found these PDF's to be pretty good: Full set of Nomad Investment Letters 2001-2014: https://igyfoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full_Collection_Nomad_Letters_.pdf Arlington Value Capital Letters 2008-2016: https://focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Arlington-Value-Combined-files.pdf The Arlington ones are quite good as they also highlight the mistakes they made over the years. Buying and holding Berkshire proved to be the best move for both funds. And the rise and fall of Iridium: https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/syd.finkelstein/articles/Iridium.pdf
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Jan 2, 2022 21:23
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ARTPUP posted:
Hah, iridium was the first company I invested in that went completely tits up. Jesus, what a poo poo show. Things were a lot less transparent then. Now the challenge is sifting through the avalanche of mostly useless or misleading information.
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Jan 2, 2022 21:49
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I think my biggest wins this year where selling SNDL Call options in January/Feb. $3.00, 14 day calls were selling for so much that your RoI was about 4.5%...per day. The books are painted green with that poo poo. On the inverse side, my biggest potential loss was buying AMC at about $9~, selling OoM call options like you do for a bit, and then watching it explode to $60 when I had the entire portfolio out with a $17 strike price. More conventionally, I bought up a bunch of PLUM at $1.80 in hopes of finding returns with another highly volatile stock in options, but PLUM isn't options eligible, so I just say on thinking... 'maybe to the moon as a meme stock?'. It's 0.44 right now. Other than, buying stuff like FCEL, PLUG, and BLDP has been profitable in the short term, but if I would have just sold at or near peaks, I might have been better off. I'm not that upset about holding them though and I kind of expect that they'll be volatile enough in the future to continue to spin contracts for. Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jan 2, 2022 |
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Jan 2, 2022 22:00
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interesting reading (the latter article, #3 in series, not top quoted embed): https://twitter.com/SleepwellCap/status/1474063276971540486?s=20 I like the credit analysis perspective he brings
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Jan 2, 2022 22:46
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Worst Move: - Not selling CRTX when it was over $100 Best Move: - Selling $185 CRTX Calls at a crazy premium which covered the huge losses I made when CRTX dropped like a stone. Biggest Regret: Not buying Home Depot/Lowes when it was extremely obvious that nothing was really going to change for 2021 and people were going to continue to funnel discretionary spending back into their homes because it was the only option. Summary: I didn't really make a significant amount of money on any of my bets, aside from SOLY getting bought out. I did fine this year only because my boring long term investment account holds heaps of FAANG+M stocks which of course did very well. Prediction for 2022: 1) The status quo continues, travel stays down, and people funnel their discretionary travel funds into other things. USA is struggling to keep up vaccinations and looking around and foreign countries have even worse vaccination rates. Doesn't seem like there's gonna be a huge drive to finally go on vacation to Mexico and further afield when those places are still weakly vaccinated and pandemic related travel restrictions make travel a pain. Canada was opening up travel and that snapped back real quick as soon as Omicron got bad. That sort of thing can happen again. In Canada the "housing bubble" has been absolutely nuts with eye watering house appreciation. There is no sign of the situation changing as millennials are at the family formation stage and looking for that detached house and white picket fence. There's no inventory of this product and prices are spiking. The only hope in hell for Canada to do anything about this situation (as it re-opens for immigration too) is to build way the gently caress more apartment buildings. The USA of course is a different market with different policies, but it seems like similar dynamics are at play and detached house prices are ripping. Increased housing spending seems likely to yield increased spending around the housing renovation sectors and mortgage industries. Even tho HD is at all time highs, maybe does it still have room to run? 2) Chip shortage supply chain issues remain bad. It's clear as mud what is going on in China, but it seems they still have lockdowns and the supply of everything remains impacted. I was stove shopping the other day and the induction stove model, GE Cafe, the salesperson liked the most he sadly couldn't offer me as orders were a year out. There's going to be artificial limits on the sales of consumer electronics companies as they struggle to produce the things that people want to buy. ROKU has mentioned this as a headwind to their growth as much of their subscription growth is coming through TV sales with the Roku App built in and they can't make enough TVs.
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Jan 3, 2022 01:00
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Is the induction stove model really called that or is that an autocorrect? I’d like to think GE’s stove is named after the good who dildoed himself on the shower so hard something fell out
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Jan 3, 2022 03:05
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Keep in mind GE appliances is owned by China now, who knows what they’ll name it.
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Jan 3, 2022 06:03
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Haier bought GE Appliances in 2016 and retained rights to use the GE name for a number of years. Cafe appliances are the "designer" mid market appliances from GE.
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Jan 3, 2022 06:18
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Femtosecond posted:
Agree on all points
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Jan 3, 2022 06:37
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If my industrial employer is any microcosm of the global supply chain then mid-volume electronics will be under allocations until the end of 2023. Microcontroller, lithium battery, PCB and PCBA suppliers have requested firm purchase orders since last year based on forecasts until 2023 - farther out than the reliable accuracy of said forecasts can be counted on. Accounting is having a great time reconciling provisions for material purchased in one calendar year and not delivered until another.
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Jan 3, 2022 09:01
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Q1 is probably not going to be a great quarter for global industrial output, when a quarter of your factory is out for two weeks, then cycles through the whole factory for two months Sounds like port of LA finally got their head out of their rear end regarding empty containers but I know half my (work from home office type) team is out sick this week and we're all hyper aware covid hypochondriacs, I can only imagine what is happening in factories and schools now and through January If reading though my posts in this thread over the last year taught me anything, capital gives zero fucks about those crushed under the wheels of public health; the pandemic means higher costs and higher profit due to ??? doubling down on SPY and QQQ this year; for every dollar I invest elsewhere, I'm putting a dollar each in SPY and QQQ
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Jan 3, 2022 09:24
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Look at all these big words. Buy 0DTE calls.
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Jan 3, 2022 16:24
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I made an easy thousand bucks off Rivian. I knew it'd shoot up with all the hype around the IPO, and sold when I thought it was capping out/bout to turn around. It ended up going another 40% haha whatever thousand bucks of free money is sick as hell. I just checked and looks like it's lower than it's opening price now haha
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Jan 3, 2022 23:12
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https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1478121121488773120 SaaS: Salad as a Service
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Jan 4, 2022 00:04
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Hadlock posted:Twitter has something like 325 million active users officially Yeah, Twitter and Facebook have both run up against the hard limit of 'there are only so many people on the planet capable of being users'. Who knew exponential growth forever wasn't sustainable forecasting. Year in review: I'm up 22% in the IRA I use for gambling... which means I failed to beat the index, as expected. Positives: Sold AMC before catching the knife, still holding a couple shares of GOOG Negatives: NDRA lol, and oddly 3M underperforming.
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Jan 4, 2022 11:12
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So TQQQ(and a whole bunch of their other ETFs) is going to split 2:1. Never held anything during one of these, is there anything I should consider doing here, or just hold on through it and see? Anything I need to do after it happens?
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Jan 4, 2022 18:23
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Tetramin posted:So TQQQ(and a whole bunch of their other ETFs) is going to split 2:1. Never held anything during one of these, is there anything I should consider doing here, or just hold on through it and see? Anything I need to do after it happens? No you don't need to do anything. The day of things might look a little wonky on various trackers if they haven't updated yet.
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Jan 4, 2022 18:30
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Tetramin posted:So TQQQ(and a whole bunch of their other ETFs) is going to split 2:1. Never held anything during one of these, is there anything I should consider doing here, or just hold on through it and see? Anything I need to do after it happens? If your broker charges you for forced actions you may get a charge for the split. I think Security reorganization is the common name, mandatory seems fairly split between a charge or free and voluntary seems to always be a charge. You'll want to check your brokers fees. The only other thing to consider is options will get changed for the new split at 2:1 though that should just be straight up doubling all the contract count so no big deal. Reverse splits and odd number splits get messy with strike changes. Option chat here is mostly so you have it in mind for other splits. It's important to know what will happen to your options during a split!
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Jan 4, 2022 18:34
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Vox Nihili posted:Congrats to Cathie for achieving a return of -24.1% on her ARKK ETF in a year that the S&P500 gained 26.9% and QQQ gained 28.6%. Absolute legend. Early in the year my wife’s work offered a 30 min call with an Edward Jones advisor that we took because we figured it wouldn’t hurt to go over our high level financial status. Overall it was helpful to talk through things and confirm we were in a good spot, but the cost was his 10 minute sales pitch pushing their active management service and ability to find “unique exciting funds like the ARK portfolio that is going to generate big returns for their clients.” Glad I kept to my boring index fund strategy instead.
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Jan 4, 2022 18:49
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Number is red today. Bad day to buy SOXL yesterday, I guess. I realized yesterday that I had been piling on TSM, ASML but forgotten about LRCX. Adding some now, but man, that stock needs a split. movax fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Jan 4, 2022 |
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Jan 4, 2022 19:39
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that NET drop
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Jan 4, 2022 19:56
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How do folks feel about EPD stock?
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Jan 5, 2022 18:14
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Red posted:How do folks feel about EPD stock? I like it and held it for a while. I may buy again. You'll get a K-1 at tax time, so be prepared.
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Jan 5, 2022 18:32
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Cacafuego posted:I like it and held it for a while. I may buy again. You'll get a K-1 at tax time, so be prepared. I was thinking of a good dividend stock in a large company for my Roth IRA outside of an ETF that follows the S&P 500; I'm just iffy about the nature of the industry. I'm guessing I wouldn't need to fuss with it, given the nature of a Roth IRA.
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Jan 5, 2022 18:35
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Red posted:I'm guessing I wouldn't need to fuss with it, given the nature of a Roth IRA. Just the opposite, EPD is a limited partnership and the tax liabilities they generate can make them a headache for retirement accounts.
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Jan 5, 2022 19:35
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Sokani posted:Just the opposite, EPD is a limited partnership and the tax liabilities they generate can make them a headache for retirement accounts. Eh. One of the things I'm aiming for with my Roth IRA is for it to be simple enough to be left alone for 30 years if I die, and it's just there for my wife/kids.
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Jan 5, 2022 19:51
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Red posted:One of the things I'm aiming for with my Roth IRA is for it to be simple enough to be left alone for 30 years if I die, and it's just there for my wife/kids. Then you probably don't want to buy individual stocks for your IRA at all. This is what target date funds are for, if you can stomach the boredom.
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Jan 5, 2022 20:29
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What punched AMBA and ENPH in the dick today?
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Jan 5, 2022 20:58
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movax posted:What punched AMBA and ENPH in the dick today? Probably the same thing that punched everything in the dick, whatever that was.
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Jan 5, 2022 21:10
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Looks like ENPH also got downgraded which is some extra oomph on that dick punch
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Jan 5, 2022 21:12
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My $1500 funbucks account is valued at $980 I should probably dump everything and put it all on something ridiculous like a crypto ETF or something dumber.
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Jan 5, 2022 21:23
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Sokani posted:Then you probably don't want to buy individual stocks for your IRA at all. This is what target date funds are for, if you can stomach the boredom. I would tend to agree, but I'm trying to be mindful of large companies with stocks that are just outside the 500 that have good long-term potential. I mean, my wife's has a majority target fund, and some AAPL (along with some for 'fun' (i.e., one share of Target because she likes Target)).
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Jan 5, 2022 21:26
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Cacafuego posted:Probably the same thing that punched everything in the dick, whatever that was. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/fed-minutes-december-2021.html
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Jan 5, 2022 21:47
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:Looks like ENPH also got downgraded which is some extra oomph on that dick punch Goddamned analysts. I'm long ENPH (and SEDG); sold a bit last year at its height but I'm happy to see where it goes, especially if infrastructure stuff does actually get passed.
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Jan 5, 2022 22:20
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ARKK plz die. just fall right off the table
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Jan 5, 2022 23:13
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