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Motronic posted:80% of new cars that gave been sold in the last month or two (I forget the exact numbers but I saw them last week) are being sold for above MSRP. This is absolutely true. I didn't sound like enough of a sucker while trying to buy a Honda last year and they ghosted me. It's a seller''s market right now.
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Feb 14, 2022 19:53
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I stopped by a Kia dealership last weekend. About 4 new cars on the lot, about 20 people in the showroom. Dealership will write up a sales sheet for cars "in transit". The "market adjustment" on the price sheet is anywhere between $3000 on Seltos to $6500 on Telluride. People buying a new car right now are getting fleeced. And when the market will adjust itself 3 years from now, they will get twice as reamed on their trade in price.
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Feb 14, 2022 23:15
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Trade in is going to do fine. There is not going to be a magic waterfall of computer chips at the end of the rainbow and every ghost car that should have shipped in 21-22 will arrive simultaneously in 23. Return to normal is going to look like any normal years capital expansion but from a rung down on the ladder. We should expect the prices people paying now to crystalize as the new inflated price. As a manufacturer and seller that's not the sort of thing you walk away from lightly, thinking I can't wait to flood the market and erase it all. As a consumer, that's not the way the decision to buy a car works. That should keep used buoyed similarly. May be a small consolation for a market of buyers who's used wages haven't had a chance (or may not have the chance) to inflate.
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Feb 15, 2022 00:28
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zedprime posted:Trade in is going to do fine. There is not going to be a magic waterfall of computer chips at the end of the rainbow and every ghost car that should have shipped in 21-22 will arrive simultaneously in 23. Return to normal is going to look like any normal years capital expansion but from a rung down on the ladder. Disagree with basically all of this. People are overpaying like $15,000 for Ram 1500s right now and if you think they're not going right back to flooding the market as soon as they're able with 12,000 dollar rebates then I'd say you're not familiar with their business model. bird with big dick fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 02:51
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zedprime posted:Trade in is going to do fine. There is not going to be a magic waterfall of computer chips at the end of the rainbow and every ghost car that should have shipped in 21-22 will arrive simultaneously in 23. Return to normal is going to look like any normal years capital expansion but from a rung down on the ladder. More margin per car does not equal more net profitability. Cutting prices and selling more cars at a lower price often does. Manufacturers will do whatever maximizes their bottom line, regardless of your economic fantasies.
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Feb 15, 2022 02:58
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Deteriorata posted:More margin per car does not equal more net profitability. Cutting prices and selling more cars at a lower price often does. Manufacturers will do whatever maximizes their bottom line, regardless of your economic fantasies. bird with big dick posted:Disagree with basically all of this.
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Feb 15, 2022 04:30
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zedprime posted:This is assuming they can make the cars. Cash for clunkers was a demand shift and there was a backslide on the tail end but just barely. Right now we are in a supply disruption, the last of which we have for example is the emissions standards shift and recessions of the 70s and 80s which saw some dramatic car price inflation that never really corrected back down. Are they going to overproduce chasing the demand curve? Almost certainly. Is there gonna be a correction back to 2020 prices during that? I guess we'll see. The relative cost of buying a new car has been steadily dropping for decades. Your assertions are not based in reality. Absolute prices are rising, yes, but so are wages and the financial burden of buying a new car was highest in 1998.  Source: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fact-988-july-31-2017-average-price-new-light-vehicle-was-nearly-32000-2016
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Feb 15, 2022 04:45
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Deteriorata posted:Absolute prices are rising, yes, but so are wages  You seem to be leaning hard on both pretending that the market has been dead flat since 2016 (it hasn't), and that the cost of the subset of vehicles sold "cars" is more important than "all light vehicles sold". Truck prices and truck sales volume have skyrocketed because now, if someone is comfortable dropping $50-60k or more on a vehicle, it's probably a high-trim half-ton domestic truck or SUV instead of a car. I'm sure crossovers are helping this as well since automakers love to get them classified as light trucks for fuel economy and emissions purposes. Based on https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2022-01-1...elley-Blue-Book and correcting the numbers back to 2016 dollars with https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/, the average transaction price in December 2020 was $36k, and in December 2021 it was $40k.
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Feb 15, 2022 06:11
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Isn't part of the average sales price of light vehicles 1) mostly the fact that 72-96 month loan terms are the norm now, it really just boils down to what is the monthly payment 2) to a much lesser extent cars are more reliable now than 40 years ago, a 1985 Cadillac was expected to give 100k good service to the original owner and another 50k twilight service, nowadays most people expect to get 200k out of a car I've never bought a new car though so just guessing
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Feb 15, 2022 06:22
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Yeah, there's a ton of factors in "a new car costs more". 72-96 month loans are far more palatable to banks and buyers since all but the absolute worst new cars should make it that long without being anywhere near "worn out", and a lot will make it that far without even any sort of maintenance or failure that costs more than a set of tires. There's also some 'inflation' in terms of what a new vehicle is required to have (safety and emissions requirements) and what buyers expect it to have (air conditioning, power steering/brakes, etc). The safety and emissions requirements won't go away. You can't de-content a new car enough to make it truly cheap without making it completely unappealing, either. That vast improvement to reliability means that to a buyer with $15k, the 5-10 year old "loaded" car looks a lot more attractive than a brand new base-trim Versa. At any rate, no automaker is going to suddenly have enough ability to build and deliver cars so quickly that they solve the supply issues on the new side and create such a shift in supply/demand that transaction prices drop significantly. The best we get for a long time here is that dealer markups go away.
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Feb 15, 2022 06:40
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Deteriorata posted:The relative cost of buying a new car has been steadily dropping for decades. Your assertions are not based in reality. Absolute prices are rising, yes, but so are wages and the financial burden of buying a new car was highest in 1998. That chart ends in 2016, and I feel like there's been a pretty substantial increase in car prices since then. Some of the increase in prices will reflect more "content," but in 2015, $40 - 45k would get you a pretty nice mid-level euro sport-luxury car (like a BMW 335i) and today it would only get you a "base" 3-series, not a "hot" one.
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Feb 15, 2022 06:59
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According to earlier reports from Edmunds, 2021 has been a record-breaking year for vehicle prices. Purchase prices saw a year-over-year increase of 14.3% for new vehicles and 27.4% for used vehicles.Dec 20, 2021 https://www.valuepenguin.com/news/car-prices-2021#:~:text=Auto%20prices%20rose%20steeply%20in,and%2027.4%25%20for%20used%20vehicles. Most of this is markup.
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Feb 15, 2022 14:03
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The truth is that nobody actually knows what the future of car pricing holds, and the best anyone can do is make a somewhat educated guess. Supply chains, regulations, fuel costs, inflation, interest rates, consumer perceptions, etc. all feed into a system that is already too complex to perfectly model even if you had all the data, which nobody does. If you're shopping for a car you intend to sell in three years, a lease can lock in values to provide some security. If you intend to keep your car longer and then sell, just assume you'll take a significant loss on it, and if that winds up not being the case, that'll be a pleasant windfall. If you don't need a car right this moment, you can try waiting months or even a couple of years to see if prices come back down, but they might not, and they could even go up. That's the nature of the uncertain future, always has been, always will be.
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Feb 15, 2022 21:38
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So unfortunately it looks like I am not going to have a choice about buying a car in this market pretty much asap (currently in a rental). Proposed Budget: $30k seems to be about the price point for smaller SUVs assuming a bit of markup from MSRP? That would work, but certainly not opposed to paying less for something that checks all the boxes. Or a bit more if there's a good reason to. New or Used: New unless there's a really compelling reason not to. With depreciation being priced the way it is now, new seems like an obvious choice? Body Style: An SUV probably. A pickup truck would work but the markup on those seems higher? The previous car was a small hatchback, and while it was usually more than spacious enough squeezing in a couple bicycles was difficult. It also just felt small on the road here with so many larger vehicles, trying to avoid that with the next car. How will you be using the car?: No towing, but a large cargo area with the back seats down is probably the most important feature. Rarely more than 2 people in the car, and a commute of ~55 miles round trip daily. What aspects are most important to you?: Size is going to be a requirement I think, an SUV or small pickup. Beyond that reliability - ideally I take it into the dealership when a light goes on and don't need to do any thinking beyond that. -The popular options seem to be the CR-V, Rav4, Sportage, CX-5, and Tucson, do any of them stand out (in a good or bad way)? -What's actually likely to be in stock and reasonably close to MSRP? -Are there mid-size SUVs that fall in that budget, or are they somehow flawed? For example the Santa Fe base model seems relatively large for the price, is there a reason it's cheaper than most mid-size models? -Is there a general guideline about which trim level is the best value, or will that vary by make/model? AreWeDrunkYet fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 01:55
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With the delays in delivery of new cars, aren’t you basically going to eat the cost of depreciation in rental fees?
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Feb 16, 2022 05:30
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The manufacturers' inventory searches for those models show a handful of CRVs, Rav4s, CX5s, and Sportages at local dealerships. Only the Tucson and Maverick seem to be out of stock or only in transit. Are those searches reliable? For example, https://www.toyota.com/search-inventory/ AreWeDrunkYet fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 05:55
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:Are those searches reliable? For example, https://www.toyota.com/search-inventory/ No. Call the dealership and ask, and you may get a real answer. Edit: it may have been accurate at one point but during our truck shopping we quickly realized that vehicles were left up there after they'd been sold for whatever reason, be it either a data export/import delay or just dealerships wanting to try to drum up foot traffic. Maybe it's better in different areas.
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Feb 16, 2022 15:12
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Yeah last summer everything I asked about was either actually still in transit or sold already.
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Feb 16, 2022 15:28
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I'm still having no luck finding the car I want (Pacifica Hybrid Limited) and there seem to be even fewer available than before. Does anyone know if I'd likely have to pay a premium to place an ordr, or could I order one at MSRP? Every in-stock van I've found has been asking at least $1000 over MSRP.
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Feb 17, 2022 02:25
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HisMajestyBOB posted:I'm still having no luck finding the car I want (Pacifica Hybrid Limited) and there seem to be even fewer available than before. Does anyone know if I'd likely have to pay a premium to place an ordr, or could I order one at MSRP? Every in-stock van I've found has been asking at least $1000 over MSRP. Depends on the dealer and the market on your area. I can pretty easily shop 6 local dealers. I would expect to be able to order a Pacifica at msrp. I’d check the pacifica forum ordering thread for peoples experiences. 1000 over isn’t that bad to get one right now. Order time is probably several months and the 2022 orders probably close in the next couple months to prepare for the 2023’s
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Feb 17, 2022 02:39
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Re: Gap Insurance Chat I'm actually one of the idiots that went with the one the dealership offered. Is it possible to drop it from a financed car or am I hosed until I refinance the lease?
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Feb 17, 2022 19:33
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Your financing is almost certainly not contingent upon it. You should dig through the paperwork, there's almost certainly some form of cancellation process listed out in there.
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Feb 17, 2022 19:55
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HisMajestyBOB posted:I'm still having no luck finding the car I want (Pacifica Hybrid Limited) and there seem to be even fewer available than before. Does anyone know if I'd likely have to pay a premium to place an ordr, or could I order one at MSRP? Every in-stock van I've found has been asking at least $1000 over MSRP. I'm not seeing anything over the doc fee. The dealership wants to charge $700 for an "upgrade we do to all our cars" which is clearly a worthless $700 upcharge, but that's it. If you are willing to wait, you can custom order it (though I have seen most of the newer cars being built w/o the safety sphere, which is kind a big deal to me personally). Are you sure you want the Hybrid? Did you research the transmission issues and the lack of AWD?
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Feb 17, 2022 20:01
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Yeah, pretty sure. AWD doesn't matter to me.
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Feb 17, 2022 20:02
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dpkg chopra posted:Re: Gap Insurance Chat How much is this costing you? My credit union does gap insurance for a one time payment of $100.
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Feb 17, 2022 20:08
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dpkg chopra posted:Re: Gap Insurance Chat Otherwise you are stuck digging through the terms, which should have a termination clause that may be dependent on your financer and have a fee.
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Feb 17, 2022 20:15
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Yeah, I just read over the terms and I should be able to cancel, minus a 50 dollar fee because gently caress you, of course. Geico, of course, doesn't offer GAP so I need to shop for it separately. Any recs?
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Feb 17, 2022 21:09
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Why do you think you need it? Do you really think your car will be worth less than you owe on it if you total it? With the car market the way it is, I'm inclined to say gap insurance is for suckers unless you overpaid an obscene amount or have really lovely loan terms. KillHour fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Feb 17, 2022 |
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Feb 17, 2022 21:12
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KillHour posted:Why do you think you need it? Do you really think your car will be worth less than you owe on it if you total it? I didn't overpay in the context of this market, but unless prices keep going up forever, there is no way this car will be worth even 50% of what I paid within 2 years. Cash price was $14.500 when I bought it (that's without fees and the lovely gap insurance), which was already almost the price it was worth new in 2020. I'd be willing to pay a small lump sum for the peace of mind of knowing that I won't have to put thousands of dollars out of my own pocket to pay off the difference if I total the car right after the market corrects itself. I mean, right now I've already paid it, really, so even switching to a non-dealer gap will be a net win for me.
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Feb 17, 2022 22:07
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dpkg chopra posted:Re: Gap Insurance Chat Wait what... you bought GAP on a lease? I've only leased through Ford, but if I total out the car and insurance doesn't pay out enough, that's Ford's problem, not mine. There's a GAP Waiver in the Ford leasing contract. Here's the verbiage straight from my lease contract because y'all love arguing about stuff quote:GAP Waiver If You had in effect the insurance required under this I don't know about other brands if GAP is necessary or not, but I'm just imaging the dealer selling you something you 10000% don't need or could even use.
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Feb 17, 2022 22:25
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Not a lease, I meant financing as in a loan. It was "dealer" financing in the sense that the dealer brokered it, but the actual loan was provided through Chase at a reasonable rate. They just also offered gap insurance right before closing and I took it because I was tired and dumb.
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Feb 17, 2022 22:44
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There is no way in hell a car you paid less than 15 grand for needs gap insurance.
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Feb 17, 2022 22:47
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Gap insurance is pretty specifically a poverty tax for structuring your principal wrong and only exists because certain financing contracts require it. Selling it at contract close and not finding reputable agents selling it off script should tip you off it's pretty useless. If you're not required, you're going to get far better results on avoiding gaps just... paying down the car.
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Feb 17, 2022 23:09
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At the time my fear was, market crashes, car goes to pre-pandemic levels and immediately loses about half its value. By my calculations, if that happened within the first year, I would have been to pay around 4k difference. Was it worth the cost of the dealer gap insurance? In hindsight, no. Would it have been worth $40 a year? I think yes, if only for the peace of mind. Now it's looking like the market isn't gonna correct anytime soon and probably will never fall to prepandemic levels, but I didn't know that at the time. Edit: not trying to double down here, I'm contacting the dealer to cancel the policy now, just explaining my thinking at the time.
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Feb 17, 2022 23:12
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We're not trying to give you poo poo either, just being clear in case anyone else stumbles through here and might be helped by the conversation.
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Feb 17, 2022 23:39
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zedprime posted:Gap insurance is pretty specifically a poverty tax for structuring your principal wrong and only exists because certain financing contracts require it. Selling it at contract close and not finding reputable agents selling it off script should tip you off it's pretty useless. A lot of it depends on the used car market. Right now it doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you have a terrible loan to value as you said but traditionally used car prices crashed fast for some brands which could made even modest ltv loans underwater.
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Feb 18, 2022 01:07
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We declined gap insurance on our car as we plan on keeping it beyond the term of our loan, also we don't have a history of wrecking our cars, and also also, could absorb the ~$1500 deficit on the off chance that happened Poverty tax, as zedprime pointed out, rings pretty clear and true from where I'm standing, but I'm sure there's other takes
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Feb 18, 2022 07:31
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Strikes me as a poverty tax as well, chiming in
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Feb 18, 2022 07:48
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Edit: beating a dead horse
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Feb 18, 2022 07:57
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I remember gap insurance from bad with money thread. It was a popular item for people rolling one loan into another. Something something truck equity
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Feb 18, 2022 08:20
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