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At least a slow flip requires the contractors and flippers to live in their shitbox so if it sucks outright they suffer too ha ha ha I’m not bitterBigPaddy posted:I wish I had pictures of the flip I saw last year where the interior was all HGTV special while the outside of the house was tilted to one side as then foundation was failing with inch wide cracks visible.  What’s the opposite of curb appeal?
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Apr 25, 2022 14:05
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Pollyanna posted:At least a slow flip requires the contractors and flippers to live in their shitbox so if it sucks outright they suffer too ha ha ha I’m not bitter Ed Norton’s academy award role?
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Apr 25, 2022 14:57
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Motronic posted:It's a slow flip. This is absolutely calculated so they can 1031 exchange to the next flip for the favorable tax treatment. If they're living in them for 2 years at a time, they're using the residence capital gain exclusion for even better treatment than 1031 exchanges.
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Apr 25, 2022 15:25
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PCjr sidecar posted:Ed Norton’s academy award role? 
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Apr 25, 2022 15:31
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Out of the 23 houses we looked at last year (with seven offers including the one we actually bought), six were flips and all were the most superficial cosmetic brokeass poo poo done poorly. The foundations, plumbing, etc were all poo poo and they did things like paint over really nice crown molding and whatnot. One of them actually had multiple elevation changes in the kitchen despite new tile flooring. Insane.
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Apr 25, 2022 15:43
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A house we looked at was one step above a tear down but the price reflected it. We passed since it was too much of a fixer for even me. I just looked it up and it has since been re-listed with new cabinets and flooring!!! I am sure they addressed all the structural issues and leveled the subfloors before laying down new tile and cabinets 
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Apr 25, 2022 16:11
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BigPaddy posted:I wish I had pictures of the flip I saw last year where the interior was all HGTV special while the outside of the house was tilted to one side as then foundation was failing with inch wide cracks visible.
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Apr 25, 2022 18:12
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I really don't see any houses hit the market that look like they've been maintained at all. All of them have decades of neglect or half-assed "improvements" made. The flips listed have just put lipstick on top of all those issues. I think a big difference between the housing market for millennials compared to boomers that is often overlooked is that boomers bought 20 year old houses that had tons of life left in them, then ran them into the ground with shoddy maintenance and half assed additions. Because of supply constraints those houses are still worth 3x their original cost, so current homebuyers are maxxing out their credit to buy clapped out garbage that still need 6 figures worth of improvements to be considered nice and brought up to modern code.
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Apr 25, 2022 18:26
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SlapActionJackson posted:If they're living in them for 2 years at a time, they're using the residence capital gain exclusion for even better treatment than 1031 exchanges. Yeah it’s probably this.
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Apr 25, 2022 18:33
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SpartanIvy posted:I really don't see any houses hit the market that look like they've been maintained at all. All of them have decades of neglect or half-assed "improvements" made. The flips listed have just put lipstick on top of all those issues.  Yeah, it’s this. POs just didn’t want to keep their poo poo proper and neglected the drat things so much and now everything on the market is rotting, leaking, and crumbling.I wish we had Japan’s housing culture. Knocking a house down and rebuilding it every few years. Means that it’s always going to be up to code and always going to last exactly as long as it needs to. Pity about the cost and the asspain of moving and also pity about historical districts.
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Apr 25, 2022 18:52
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Arsenic Lupin posted:Necro-post: What's the difference between "a bit", modest, moderate, and slight? I used non-quantitative terms as everything will be relative to national impact - whether we have a crash & recession vs a small 1-2 year price dropping national. While exact markets are very difficult to price out, there are a few things that hold true. Markets drops #'s and my confidence (based on how much experience I have researching that market) - this is housing, not condos. Seattle: +5%, 99% Conf SF: +0%, 99% Conf Phoenix: -5 to +5%, 80% Conf PDX: -10% to -20%, 75% Conf Sacramento: -10 to -30%, 60% Conf LA: -10 to -25%, 50% Conf San Diego: -15 to -30%, 50% Conf This are numbers for a bubble popping in the next 1-3 years, not what I actually anticipate overall. My best national guess is that the market doesn't pop in the next 1-3 years, rather moderate markets level out in pricing and hot markets drop to 2-3x CPI rates of increase. I think Phoenix and Portland are the two cities on the west that are most likely to increase the most in the next 5 years.
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Apr 25, 2022 19:23
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Have a 1990's construct that I think we're gonna offer on. Bathrooms are a bit rough, kitchen could use a remodel though just modern appliances would be big, and it wastes some space (that 90's tv show style hallway to the living room overhang). But no major structural issue, newer end of build, stellar location, enough room for us, good view. Unfortunately it somehow has offers, so we'll see where it goes, but the current price point is a big upside, bidding war is not and offers are due by 3pm. Our cat is having issues and is at the vet right now with the mrs. too so it may just not work out. I can't emphasize enough how stupid it is to have to be making a choice on a god drat house in a couple of days. Also the flipper bs is egregious, one of the many reasons I'm doing 90's+ only.
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Apr 25, 2022 19:42
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Pollyanna posted:
That sounds super wasteful…demolish a house every few years and rebuild? I guess I’m wondering what “every few years” actually amounts to.
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Apr 25, 2022 19:52
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Pollyanna posted:
This one really spiked my curiosity for some reason. It appears that it's not a flip, it's a scrape and rebuild, it says it's all new construction in the description, and the "year built" is 2021. The neighboring house had the same thing done in 2012.
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Apr 25, 2022 19:54
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are flips ever worth it?
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Pollyanna posted:I wish we had Japan’s housing culture. Knocking a house down and rebuilding it every few years. Means that it’s always going to be up to code and always going to last exactly as long as it needs to. Pity about the cost and the asspain of moving and also pity about historical districts. Constantly tearing down and rebuilding houses is probably worse than the current status quo.
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Apr 25, 2022 20:00
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It's a state-sanctioned jobs-making/money laundering program Not unlike the American finance system, but with tangible results
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Apr 25, 2022 20:22
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:I think Phoenix and Portland are the two cities on the west that are most likely to increase the most in the next 5 years. Phoenix is pretty crazy, been in my place for an year now and been getting calls and idiots at the door asking if I want to sell and that they would offer me $X right now. $X was about 15% over the zestimate. Of course selling is a trap on multiple levels and selling to a an iBuyer company without even testing the market would be even more so. I don’t want to move, I just did that last year and even if I wanted to I wouldn’t be waiting for a rando to come to the door asking if I wanted to.
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Apr 25, 2022 21:02
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Pollyanna posted:I mean…you do know goons yeah being on SA is like being part of the world's dumbest secret society, if you have a chance to use the goonmind then use it
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Apr 25, 2022 21:31
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:I used non-quantitative terms as everything will be relative to national impact - whether we have a crash & recession vs a small 1-2 year price dropping national. While exact markets are very difficult to price out, there are a few things that hold true. I don’t know your methods or source data… but seems to me like there’s no hope?
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Apr 25, 2022 21:48
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nwin posted:That sounds super wasteful…demolish a house every few years and rebuild? I guess I’m wondering what “every few years” actually amounts to.
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Apr 25, 2022 22:05
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gently caress yeah offer is in, escalation clause up to 11% over listing, here we go 
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Apr 25, 2022 22:14
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Houses are already a massive sink of energy and resources, replacing them every 20-30 years is unconscionable in a world where we recognize that environmental impacts matter. There was an enormous housing boom in the US in the 1950s. Just vast suburbs created everywhere, centered on the car, predicated on one income families, picket fence mythology, white flight racism and redlining, all that poo poo. Those houses were mostly built cheaply and they're the ones the boomers bought for $35k in 1970. I live in one now. They're poo poo. We do need to replace a lot of them. Unfortunately, the private home construction industry knows it can use 25% more materials to build a house with 1500 extra square feet on the same lot, and sell it for 2x to 3x the profit, and that's right up there with the massive unconscionable ecological disaster approach to housing in Japan. I have the impression that at least they have a culture of living in smaller homes? The boomer generational wealth gap wasn't only created because of comparatively much higher minimum wages, job security, and vastly lower health care costs; it was also a factor of cheaply converting America's exurban farmland into suburbia, a single-time transfer of land wealth that cannot occur again. My, and maybe your, generation is the last one that can enjoy the privilege of living in huge tracts of suburban single family houses with big grass yards and winding cul de sac streets. Maybe it won't be the actual last one, but our civilization literally can't afford it in the sense of the requirement to radically reduce carbon emissions, water usage, etc. As those cheapass suburban houses crumble, we shouldn't be pouring billions of tons of more concrete, adding 1.21 jiggawatts of electrical capacity to our grid to keep all those houses hot and cold, and watering all those loving lawns. If we want to save civilization we should be allowing the lovely midcentury suburbs to die, not endlessly extending and flipping them with updated quartz countertops. But this is a society-level problem, and as an individual, despite the ongoing tragedy of the commons, you are gonna do what you're incentivized to do: buy and live in a house, if you can, just like me. I can't blame you. Maybe we're all being priced out (it's becoming increasingly hard to justify not selling my house and pocketing a half million dollars cash I did not in any way earn or deserve) but I'm suspicious of the notion that there's enough people making $400k a year to afford to buy a hundred million flipped 1450 square foot ranches for $1.2M. All of the above is just to say naaaah, we should not be like Japan. We should be like Paris. 12-story apartments that last for 300 years, walkable streets, boulangeries on every corner, incessant never-ending labor strikes,
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Apr 25, 2022 22:26
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I don’t know your methods or source data… but seems to me like there’s no hope? My posts have been about housing, not condos. PNW condos market has been increasingly divorced from housing - PDX specifically condos have been mixed (~-15% to +20% past 2 year over year). As far as a pricing drop in Seattle - my analysis is a few years ago, but the non-technical portion that was agreed on was Seattle is going the route of SF, both cities share the same risk. It would take federal anti-trust regulations (Amazon, Apple, Google, etc) or those cities to somehow implement stronger business taxes. IIRC Seattle managed to get an attempt out before litigation shut it down.
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Apr 25, 2022 22:29
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Leperflesh posted:
You're not wrong, but it wasn't the boomers who were the primary beneficiaries: it was their parents. This was also massively boosted by things like the GI bill and the federal government prioritizing SFH ownership via poo poo like the mortgage deduction. The boomers got in on the action too, but the truly eye watering wealth creation happened in the decade following WW2. Why yes minorities were largely left out of the GI bill benefits, even those who served, why do you ask? fake edit: another area you can see this change in emphasis is in mortgage terms. I'd have to go flip through some books to get the details right, but the hand-wavy version is that the feds started underwriting a lot of the loans, which made them lower risk. The 30 year loan with a 20% down payment as we recognize it today was largely a creation of the late 40s and early 50s. Your typical mortgage in the 20s was on a 10-15 year timeframe and had upwards of a 50% down payment requirement. The massive shift in loan terms is a big part of what pushed an entire generation into home ownership. So even someone born a few years too late to have gotten in on the war and the GI Bill benefits was still looking at long term loan terms that would have been unthinkable to their parents. Why yes, minorities were considered poor credit risks for that kind of long term loan, why do you ask?
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Apr 25, 2022 22:56
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I'm in a weird position in that I'm a travel nurse and not actually expecting to be home for most of the year. Mortgage lenders do NOT like variable income. Larger banks and brokers won't even talk to me. It also kept me from buying last year when house when everything was rising since I couldn't get any loan at all until I had a years worth of data, and the pre-approvals I have are still substantially less than what I can theoretically afford. Besides that I need to be able to rent where ever I'm working so I've got to leave some budget room for that. I've been looking around the college town close to where I grew up and the prices aren't anything close to what you guys are talking about but I just had my 3rd well over asking offer fall through. So discouraging. The dynamics of these markets are bizarre and I'm really curious on how much of it is being financed by private money leveraging homes for rental income vs actual buyers moving from places where cost of living has just become untenable. Even my parents tiny nowhere town in NC is getting people moving in from other states. Terrible schools, horrible economic prospects, and close to literally nothing, but people are buying houses and moving in. I'm kinda glad because it's the only way my home town is going to exist in 30 years but it's strange. Meanwhile the market I'm mostly looking at has more rent potential I seem to be bidding on and against a fair amount of corporations. Pollyanna posted:Yyyyeah especially not my area. If you want to put some actual numbers to this look at videos/resources designed for house flippers and investors. They take a bit of the emotion out of the search (besides the emotion of greed). They can give you a semi-solid starting point with estimates to evaluate whether its a better monetary decision or not. There's a ton of different scenarios to evaluate as far as price growth and how loan rates are going to change that make projections super hard but you can at least get an projection along the lines of, "in these market conditions, buying this places gets me net neutral after 3-5 years" vs "oh, my cash on cash return is garbage and this house is never going to be a good financial decision compared to renting for the intervening time and saving" awkward_turtle fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Apr 25, 2022 |
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Apr 25, 2022 23:13
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If I had the income that I do now, but a year ago, I may have been able to buy a home. Missed the window by this much! I love posting in this thread and I will continue to do so. Got a meeting with my lender tomorrow so we will see.
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Apr 25, 2022 23:32
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Just heard that my offer on a condo didn't pan out. Did about 6% (13k, ish) over with a appraisal guarantee on that overbid and informational inspection but still no dice. Likely went to someone that bid 15-25k (10%) over and I just cannot understand that thought process for a condo. With appreciation rates that would take, what, 10-20 years to regain? Obviously this is market dependent but still condos generally appreciate way slower than homes. It is possible just being a single guy I just can't understand the 'we're desperate' factor of having a pregnant wife or something, but I generally expected that wouldn't be as common with a condo.
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Apr 25, 2022 23:55
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jaffyjaffy posted:Just heard that my offer on a condo didn't pan out. Did about 6% (13k, ish) over with a appraisal guarantee on that overbid and informational inspection but still no dice. Likely went to someone that bid 15-25k (10%) over and I just cannot understand that thought process for a condo. With appreciation rates that would take, what, 10-20 years to regain? Obviously this is market dependent but still condos generally appreciate way slower than homes.
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Apr 26, 2022 00:17
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It's an emotional market - you did the right thing sticking to your budget. Speaking of emotions... what a joy it is waiting here to see if our offer goes through or not. So may as well do some stress poasting. History of mortgages is a fun topic. Most important thing - the US started off as a landtocracy with very concentrated ownership. Western expansion, blah blah, - the cities and most of the population was concentrated, and as cities grew into the west, they were also concentrated. That's the starting point, not some utopia of balance. 1800-1900 - fuckloads of houses were built. Not much from that range still standing. The significance here is there is maximum lifespans to houses - regardless of work put in. New construction has to replace old at some point. Now we get to the "invention" of the mortgage. It's the 1910's. It existed before and was on the rise in the US, but the 1910's is when it became widespread. For the first time the banking industry was significantly expanding money supply in the US via large number of mortgages. Banking was making money like never before and pushing this rapidly. The US still had shitloads of space, and being virtually unregulated you suddenly had profits in lending mortgages to poorer families, not just big industries. Very roughly, the invention of the mortgage multiples money supply in the US by factors of 10, leading to the roaring 20's followed by the great depression and many laws that are the foundation (or still exist) of modern lending regulation. From there you have 2nd mortages, reverse mortgages, & helocs all "kind of" expanding money supply, followed by an economic downturn. I view things are far more dependent on the banking "innovative" product / deregulation, into economic upturn, then bust & regulation, flat, then back to innovation/deregulation than generational differences, people trying to flip, or not putting in enough work. The banks being the gatekeepers also fits in with the extreme racial segregation that occurred in the past 100 years, as Cyrano noted - first it was "too risky" to lend to, it evolved into "bad neighborhood risk", then became "low credit score", and then the 90's - 2010 was product sales focus of terrible products on minority communities.
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Apr 26, 2022 00:34
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awkward_turtle posted:The dynamics of these markets are bizarre and I'm really curious on how much of it is being financed by private money leveraging homes for rental income vs actual buyers moving from places where cost of living has just become untenable. Even my parents tiny nowhere town in NC is getting people moving in from other states. Terrible schools, horrible economic prospects, and close to literally nothing, but people are buying houses and moving in. I'm kinda glad because it's the only way my home town is going to exist in 30 years but it's strange. Meanwhile the market I'm mostly looking at has more rent potential I seem to be bidding on and against a fair amount of corporations. I'm not sure there are that many people looking to overpay for a home to use for rental income. There are plenty of people buying vacation homes, which presumably pushes the price of other homes up, but the reason that your parents' town in NC is getting people moving there is because working from home has become a much more reasonable option for many people to consider, even if someone has to go in to "the city" 1-2x/week.
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Apr 26, 2022 00:49
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Residency Evil posted:I'm not sure there are that many people looking to overpay for a home to use for rental income. There are plenty of people buying vacation homes, which presumably pushes the price of other homes up, but the reason that your parents' town in NC is getting people moving there is because working from home has become a much more reasonable option for many people to consider, even if someone has to go in to "the city" 1-2x/week. Retirees are a big part of it too. Tl;dr is that someone who bought a house in suburban San Diego in the 1970s is now sitting on $MEGABUX and if they want to top up the 'ol retirement nest egg they can unload it and move loving anywhere else in the country. There was an article I'm remembering from a few years back about how rural Idaho in particular was just getting hammered by that. Just tons and tons of 70 year olds from SoCal or the PacNW buying up SFH's because they could cash out of their market and didn't give a gently caress about schools or being close to a job etc.
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Apr 26, 2022 00:56
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drat didn't get it - not even close. edit: We were 2nd worst offer at up to 11% over with escalation. Several offers came in starting at 30% over. At least it's in a price range now it doesn't even feel bad - it's either someone being a complete idiot or an investor about to dump in huge $ and flip it for double the current price. gently caress. This. poo poo. 1st_Panzer_Div. fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Apr 26, 2022 |
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Apr 26, 2022 01:25
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Before I moved to Phoenix I looked at a bunch of stuff, watched videos from people doing the same etc… and came across one guy who moved to Phoenix and omg dream house great weather etc… etc… and a year later after one summer was all like “nah man too hot going to love to Boise Idaho”. Went down a bit of a click hole into why Boise and discovered it is growing fast with people moving in because of how cheap it is, low cost of living and lots of outdoor things to do. A lot of people retire to New Hampshire giving similar reasons but it really comes down to taxes.
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Apr 26, 2022 01:30
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Can I interest anyone in a $940K condo in... *checks notes* renowned Amish paradise Lancaster PA? I liked Lancaster (not the job I had there, but the town was awesome). It really disappoints me to see this poo poo going up there too. My old rental townhouse has since been demolished and went from a 3/2 1600sqft for $1250 to 2/2 1200sqft at $2300. The town already has a 26.5% poverty rate; they don't need this coming and loving over people even worse.
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Apr 26, 2022 02:01
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Sundae posted:Can I interest anyone in a $940K condo in... *checks notes* renowned Amish paradise Lancaster PA? As someone who has also spent more time in Lancaster, PA than he would like, it's only getting better/worse. Commutable to Philly, and there are even some people that commute to NYC 2x/week or so.
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Apr 26, 2022 02:18
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So…who, exactly, do we blame? Boomers? Millennials? The banks? The corporations? The government? Yourself or God?
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Apr 26, 2022 02:35
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Pollyanna posted:So…who, exactly, do we blame? Boomers? Millennials? The banks? The corporations? The government? Yourself or God? Mostly you, specifically you you.
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Apr 26, 2022 02:36
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I knew it!!!
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Apr 26, 2022 02:43
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The banks are primarily at fault and use their profits to influence politicians so... the banks. The upper middle class is cannibalizing the scraps now so it's easy to blame them, but the banks are the ones that keep loving it up. The newest fold is to be a fintech bank so you can avoid some regulations, but that's still just the "innovation/deregulation" dumb poo poo. I'm really bitter about losing that house. Or rather not even being in the race to begin with.
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Apr 26, 2022 02:50
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Panzer what job do you do? You have so much knowledge.
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Apr 26, 2022 03:04
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