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Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Okay, well, basically it seems the moderators did most of the setup on the 26th, and Re-Reg didn't join the discord until the 27th even though he signed up before Bucnasti, so for a day or so there was probably a masonry channel with only Bucnasti in it. That's why it looks weird.

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NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.
Yeah, that makes sense. Probably just misunderstood what the mods said.

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.
Yeah, I can basically believe that. I'm not going to do discord detective work because that, frankly, feels kinda cheap, but just logically that sounds to me like it's a matter of getting things setting up and distributing channel permissions to the right people.

LupusAter
Sep 5, 2011

Also, we can assume Bucnasti is telling the truth about being a mason, since nobody piped up to counterclaim, or am I missing someone? Because that makes it more likely that the unconfirmed masonry part is true, since no way that they hammer so nonchalantly if they know MSRR is town. (Or, I mean, they could if they are scum, but still.)

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.
If anything I think the whole substitute thing is indicative of the masonry being real at least. It just seems too specific to be made up, while still completely realistic.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Well we know there's a masonry (I absolutely won't believe we had a game with a single mason), and if it was a confirmed masonry then nothing that's been said makes any sense, there's no reason for Bucnasti or anyone else to not just say he knew for sure Re-Reg was town all along. It doesn't necessarily mean Bucnasti is town, but if he was scum, the masonry also can't be confirmed for obvious reasons.

None of this means I really buy that we need to target Green Wing today, though. I mean, maybe. But my head is kinda fried, I should just go to bed and think about this in the morning instead.

Green Wing
Oct 28, 2013

It's the only word they know, but it's such a big word for a tiny creature

OK looking back at day 1:

Cloacamazing! posted:

I don't really trust the sudden ganging up on MSSR here. The thread had been going that way for a while, but Green Wing has been pushing for it a bit too hard in my opinion. ##vote Green Wing

So, as I explained during the Mason kerfuffle, I was under the impression that masons were confirmed town, and I came to the conclusion that the reason that Cloaca was so sure was that she knew that MSRR was town, and that she was the other Mason.

However, given that this isn't how masons work after all, and how it seems like bucnasti is all but confirmed to be a Mason (albeit without a confirmed alignment), this gives me pause.

Mainly because - I'm beginning to wonder whether Cloaca *did* know that MSRR was town, and thus put on this vote to distance themselves from the result which was beginning to look like it would be the conclusion (that said - this post was a bit before it was fully inevitable).

Most of cloaca's other posts weren't adding to the discussion even after there was actually substantive stuff to discuss, it was mostly talking about how little there was to say and how getting up to the 10 post mark was hard work.

This is more of a prod vote, at this early stage - I want to have some more to go on from Cloaca, and I got this will coax out some posts.

##vote Cloacamazing!


NeverHelm posted:

If anything I think the whole substitute thing is indicative of the masonry being real at least. It just seems too specific to be made up, while still completely realistic.

Yeah agreed, it'd be a weird lie. That said, since it's unconfirmed masons apparently, doesn't do its much good in confirming Bucnasti's alignment :v:


Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Well we know there's a masonry (I absolutely won't believe we had a game with a single mason), and if it was a confirmed masonry then nothing that's been said makes any sense, there's no reason for Bucnasti or anyone else to not just say he knew for sure Re-Reg was town all along. It doesn't necessarily mean Bucnasti is town, but if he was scum, the masonry also can't be confirmed for obvious reasons.

None of this means I really buy that we need to target Green Wing today, though. I mean, maybe. But my head is kinda fried, I should just go to bed and think about this in the morning instead.

I'm honestly not sure why the Mason stuff would in any case mean I'm scum, like. All it would mean is Buc and MSRR had a chat channel.

As warned, I'm now off to be mostly away for the weekend, back Sunday so with plenty of time before the elongated deadline.

wologar
Feb 11, 2014

නෝනාවරුනි
As an aside, I find it hilarious that there's an apparent feeling of "what good are masons for, anyway". SA Games against union workers.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


I will not stand for this masonry erasure. (It's probably one of my favorite roles, having someone to bounce thoughts off of does wonders for keeping your mind in the game and keeping thoughts straight.)

Anyways. Hi everyone. Posting while watching SGDQ so pardon if I miss anything or am incoherent that's why. May as well clear the air. I was called in to be a last minute replacement to make sure this fired, and I was assured my role was as completely random as everyone else's. Didn't even bother reading it till night phase actually. It's a healthy paranoia though! If necessary, I'll claim later.

And yes, I did promise to post more D1 but I was lazy as gently caress.

cuntman.net
Mar 1, 2013

PlasticAutomaton posted:

I will not stand for this masonry erasure. (It's probably one of my favorite roles, having someone to bounce thoughts off of does wonders for keeping your mind in the game and keeping thoughts straight.)

Anyways. Hi everyone. Posting while watching SGDQ so pardon if I miss anything or am incoherent that's why. May as well clear the air. I was called in to be a last minute replacement to make sure this fired, and I was assured my role was as completely random as everyone else's. Didn't even bother reading it till night phase actually. It's a healthy paranoia though! If necessary, I'll claim later.

And yes, I did promise to post more D1 but I was lazy as gently caress.

take this seriously. upper paddles life could be at stake

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:

Scum want town to vote Green Wing or NeverHelm here, otherwise they would've killed one of them overnight. Green Wing in particular was completely transparent about their reasoning throughout D1, and even voiced doubt about the MSRR vote, though not strong enough doubt to unvote.

So to start off, this is really bothering me. It's a massive leap that seems to be trying to immediately discredit Buscreti's theory without directly calling them scum.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


cuntman.net posted:

take this seriously. upper paddles life could be at stake

Well, that is that, and this is this.

Green Wing
Oct 28, 2013

It's the only word they know, but it's such a big word for a tiny creature

I can't sleep and I'm grumpy about it. Anyway I've decided that actually the idea of doing a "prod vote" is dumb when I could just say I'm prodding somebody so I'm going to ##unvote again.

Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


PlasticAutomaton posted:

So to start off, this is really bothering me. It's a massive leap that seems to be trying to immediately discredit Buscreti's theory without directly calling them scum.

I apologize for the rough phrasing there, bad combo of being excited that day 2 was starting and rushed phoneposting. I wanted to get the idea that mafia intentionally avoided targeting Green Wing or NeverHelm posted ASAP, and didn't think too hard about whether I sounded accusatory or not.

I don't think the scenario I proposed is a massive leap, though. I think it's completely plausible that the mafia intentionally avoided targeting Green Wing or NeverHelm as their night elimination. Green Wing and NeverHelm were guaranteed to be under town scrutiny immediately after D2 started, and it would be easier for the mafia to convince town to vote either of them out than it would be to convince town to vote out a more innocuous poster.

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.

Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:

I don't think the scenario I proposed is a massive leap, though. I think it's completely plausible that the mafia intentionally avoided targeting Green Wing or NeverHelm as their night elimination. Green Wing and NeverHelm were guaranteed to be under town scrutiny immediately after D2 started, and it would be easier for the mafia to convince town to vote either of them out than it would be to convince town to vote out a more innocuous poster.

I'd call that plausible as well, though by no means guaranteed. I also just want to put out there that though we keep talking about them in the same breath, there's no evidence linking Green Wing and NeverHelm in alignment or anything other than them both speaking up and making a number of constructed arguments with one a bit more active than the other. I don't have reason to suspect either of being that scummy, but for the sake of coherency, it might be better if we don't strictly lump them together.


wologar posted:

As an aside, I find it hilarious that there's an apparent feeling of "what good are masons for, anyway". SA Games against union workers.

In a well run union, there should be an element of trust for your fellow worker! If you can't be sure whether your coworker is actually a ratfink snitch to your corrupt boss with mob ties, then can you really call that true collective action?

Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil

Green Wing posted:

OK looking back at day 1:

So, as I explained during the Mason kerfuffle, I was under the impression that masons were confirmed town, and I came to the conclusion that the reason that Cloaca was so sure was that she knew that MSRR was town, and that she was the other Mason.

However, given that this isn't how masons work after all, and how it seems like bucnasti is all but confirmed to be a Mason (albeit without a confirmed alignment), this gives me pause.

Mainly because - I'm beginning to wonder whether Cloaca *did* know that MSRR was town, and thus put on this vote to distance themselves from the result which was beginning to look like it would be the conclusion (that said - this post was a bit before it was fully inevitable).

Most of cloaca's other posts weren't adding to the discussion even after there was actually substantive stuff to discuss, it was mostly talking about how little there was to say and how getting up to the 10 post mark was hard work.

This is more of a prod vote, at this early stage - I want to have some more to go on from Cloaca, and I got this will coax out some posts.

Stop prodding me, it was midnight in my timezone when you posted this and I get cranky if I don't get enough sleep!

Green Wing posted:

I can't sleep and I'm grumpy about it. Anyway I've decided that actually the idea of doing a "prod vote" is dumb when I could just say I'm prodding somebody so I'm going to [unvote] again.
Alright, fine, have some reasoning.

First things first, I am very disappointed that the great witch Beatrice was both town-aligned and killed on the first night. For shame, Beato, for shame.

Mason is a role I'm not familiar with, but it seems like an interesting role. Even with the element of not being entirely sure if the other mason is also town, you'd get one other player you can privately talk things out with. The great advantage scum have is that they can do that from the beginning, so this is huge. At least, it is huge when you have, you know, more than one mason.

Regarding the "Would Shellception put a scum mason in a newbie game?" question, I would lean to No if it was intentional, but it could just as well have been a random roll for the mason role. In which case, it's more likely that both are town, but not impossible for one of them to be scum.

Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Right now I'm getting "excited town" vibes from Green Wing, not scum. Yeah she's posting a lot, but I don't think any reasoning has really been outright suspicious. Frankly my head is more at the people who voted but didn't offer a great deal of justification as to why - that feels like scum sliding into the vote late when it looks like town is already leaning a particular direction. I mean we know some of the votes on Re-Reg have to be scum, right?
Same, despite my vote. I've honestly more experience playing on the scum side (I know, not helping my case here, which is why I didn't bring it up on Day 1), since in the five games I've played, I rolled scum three times in a row and one of the two games where I was town side was abandoned early. The DM actually re-rolled me the third time, but it still turned up evil. It had kind of become a running gag at that point. Anyway, from my experience, scum tend to be quiet on the first day in order to not draw attention to themselves. Of course that depends on the player themselves, and maybe in the sceret Discord channel the other scum players have been yelling at Green Wing to stop posting for the past three days, but I'm kind of leaning towards her being town at this point.

quote:

I wonder why scum chose to kill Question Mark though. He wasn't contributing much either, so why kill him? There seems to be more obvious targets. Could be that they want us to target one of the people advocating most closely for Re-Reg, or maybe they're trying to skirt around protective roles which might have had the same thought and were guarding Green Wing or whoever last night.
As someone said earlier, assuming Green Wing is town, scum were hoping she'd get voted out today since she's been pushing for MSRR the hardest and is most likely to take the fall for it. A random kill gives us the least information.

LupusAter
Sep 5, 2011

I still think that focusing on who wasn't killed isn't going to get us anywhere at this stage. There's just too many people and too little opportunities for the scum to kill someone.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Another reason I think Bucnasti is town: Consider the situation in which Re-Reg is town but Bucnasti is scum and the two are in a masonry together. Bucnasti would immediately tell the other scum this. This would put them in a perfect position to use the masonry as a way to influence Re-Reg's vote for the duration of the game, or sap him for information. But instead (assuming at least some of the D1 votes were scum) they decided to lunch him, immediately denying themselves a game advantage. We can argue about exactly how advantageous it is to have secret scum in a masonry, but I can't imagine a position where it would be a net negative for the scum. So this entire scenario doesn't check out, it makes no sense for scum to dogpile someone they want to keep in the game over any other random townie.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Additionally, at minimum, if the scum knew Re-Reg was a mason that means he wasn't some other, more powerful role, which is another reason not to go for him day one over literally anyone else.

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.
Yes, those are good points. Looking back on Bucnasti's posts, I feel they have the ring of truth to them. While honesty isn't necessarily a town signal, some of what Bucnasti has been saying lately (notably the apparent misunderstanding regarding MSRR as mason) suggests they haven't been coordinating with others besides MSRR. It seems a little too loud and attention-grabbing for a scum player, but makes sense for a vengeful town Mason. The fact that Bucnasti was the one to hammer is a little worrying to me still, but their masonry seems to have been unconfirmed so I can't really hold it against them too much.

I think that for now, I'm willing to give Bucnasti's aggressiveness and... somewhat questionable logic at times pass as just them having a different approach to Mafia than my own. They are still on my shortlist if anything else incriminating comes up, however.

wologar
Feb 11, 2014

නෝනාවරුනි

Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Another reason I think Bucnasti is town: Consider the situation in which Re-Reg is town but Bucnasti is scum and the two are in a masonry together. Bucnasti would immediately tell the other scum this. This would put them in a perfect position to use the masonry as a way to influence Re-Reg's vote for the duration of the game, or sap him for information. But instead (assuming at least some of the D1 votes were scum) they decided to lunch him, immediately denying themselves a game advantage. We can argue about exactly how advantageous it is to have secret scum in a masonry, but I can't imagine a position where it would be a net negative for the scum. So this entire scenario doesn't check out, it makes no sense for scum to dogpile someone they want to keep in the game over any other random townie.

Then let's look at another possibility: Scum didn't pile up against MSRR because they didn't want to lose access to the masonry, so they backed off when their banishment was turning into a reality. That leaves cuntman.net, Hyper Crab Tank, Jadecore and wologar as the scum team, with Jadecore being the one backpedaling (she voted and unvoted). We got them all!

Bucnasti
Aug 14, 2012

I'll Fetch My Sarcasm Robes
RE: Hammering MSRR

This is the mental equation I was working with at the time.
1. Offing someone on day one is valuable to the town and no offing someone was valuable to the scum
2. There's a chance that MSRR was a scum, there was (at the time I believed) an equal chance of Green Wing being scum and targetting MSRR
3. Not knowing for sure if my fellow mason was scum drastically limited the usefulness of the mason channel (this may have been a miss-assessment on my part)

Since it didn't look like there was anyone else that would get voted off, I said I would vote for MSRR and at least their death would give us more information to go off of, and I wouldn't have to worry about giving up info in mason chat to a potential scum. I voted as late as real world activities would allow at the time.

Looking back now, I think the better play would have been to try to split the vote by backing somebody else which would make people commit to voting one way or the other, that would have given a lot more information for us on Day2.

All that said my vote is still on Green Wing, I'm starting to doubt that more and more, but nobody else has been presented as a possible candidate, and until I have a better target I will continue my quest for masonic vengeance.

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.

wologar posted:

Then let's look at another possibility: Scum didn't pile up against MSRR because they didn't want to lose access to the masonry, so they backed off when their banishment was turning into a reality. That leaves cuntman.net, Hyper Crab Tank, Jadecore and wologar as the scum team, with Jadecore being the one backpedaling (she voted and unvoted). We got them all!

Well dang, ain’t you a master sleuth, Wolo? Makes sense to me; I can get back to watching Wimbledon with a happy heart knowing we found all the nefarious scum!. :v:


Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Another reason I think Bucnasti is town: Consider the situation in which Re-Reg is town but Bucnasti is scum and the two are in a masonry together. Bucnasti would immediately tell the other scum this. This would put them in a perfect position to use the masonry as a way to influence Re-Reg's vote for the duration of the game, or sap him for information. But instead (assuming at least some of the D1 votes were scum) they decided to lunch him, immediately denying themselves a game advantage. We can argue about exactly how advantageous it is to have secret scum in a masonry, but I can't imagine a position where it would be a net negative for the scum. So this entire scenario doesn't check out, it makes no sense for scum to dogpile someone they want to keep in the game over any other random townie.

Seriously though, this is probably the most compelling argument that Bucnasti is most likely town to me. Claiming the other mason position and making such an uproar seems way too honestly off-kilter at this point to actually be a scum play, especially since nobody’s counterclaimed the position, so at this point I buy that… which also means that Bucnasti is probably town since being scum or third party would benefit from having someone to influence outside of the public eye.


Cloacamazing! posted:

As someone said earlier, assuming Green Wing is town, scum were hoping she'd get voted out today since she's been pushing for MSRR the hardest and is most likely to take the fall for it. A random kill gives us the least information.

If that was their play, though, wouldn’t that be pretty shortsighted? I mean, from the very start, Green Wing was saying “I’m not sure you’re actually scum but I think that’s a very anti-town attitude” openly. Which is perfectly legitimate reasoning for day 1. And when that turned out to be true and the statistically likely thing happened with MSRR being town, nearly everyone said “yeah, that tracks” and didn’t blame Green Wing as being a ringleader for it.

Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil

Bucnasti posted:

RE: Hammering MSRR

This is the mental equation I was working with at the time.
1. Offing someone on day one is valuable to the town and no offing someone was valuable to the scum
2. There's a chance that MSRR was a scum, there was (at the time I believed) an equal chance of Green Wing being scum and targetting MSRR
3. Not knowing for sure if my fellow mason was scum drastically limited the usefulness of the mason channel (this may have been a miss-assessment on my part)

Since it didn't look like there was anyone else that would get voted off, I said I would vote for MSRR and at least their death would give us more information to go off of, and I wouldn't have to worry about giving up info in mason chat to a potential scum. I voted as late as real world activities would allow at the time.

Looking back now, I think the better play would have been to try to split the vote by backing somebody else which would make people commit to voting one way or the other, that would have given a lot more information for us on Day2.

All that said my vote is still on Green Wing, I'm starting to doubt that more and more, but nobody else has been presented as a possible candidate, and until I have a better target I will continue my quest for masonic vengeance.

I'd argue that offing someone who is probably town is a worse outcome for day one. Having the second mason around would have still been more useful for you than otherwise, although how useful depends on the player. Even being in contact with someone you suspect is scum can give you valuable information. But I do agree with Jadecore that you hammering MSRR for the stated reasons seems more like a townie action.

Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil

Jadecore posted:

If that was their play, though, wouldn’t that be pretty shortsighted? I mean, from the very start, Green Wing was saying “I’m not sure you’re actually scum but I think that’s a very anti-town attitude” openly. Which is perfectly legitimate reasoning for day 1. And when that turned out to be true and the statistically likely thing happened with MSRR being town, nearly everyone said “yeah, that tracks” and didn’t blame Green Wing as being a ringleader for it.

Witch hunts are a thing.

LupusAter
Sep 5, 2011

Jadecore posted:

If that was their play, though, wouldn’t that be pretty shortsighted? I mean, from the very start, Green Wing was saying “I’m not sure you’re actually scum but I think that’s a very anti-town attitude” openly. Which is perfectly legitimate reasoning for day 1. And when that turned out to be true and the statistically likely thing happened with MSRR being town, nearly everyone said “yeah, that tracks” and didn’t blame Green Wing as being a ringleader for it.

On the other hand, that being a perfectly reasonable and defensible position means that if she is scum she has great deniablility after the flip. Not that I think the fact she survived Night 1 is an indicator in any direction, and her general play reads as more town-ish to me, so there's that.

Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


LupusAter posted:

I still think that focusing on who wasn't killed isn't going to get us anywhere at this stage. There's just too many people and too little opportunities for the scum to kill someone.

No one is claiming that not being killed implies anything on its own. We're adding the context that there are people who posted a bunch of theories and reasoning during day 1, and that those people present a potential threat to the Mafia.

It feels reasonable to say that the mafia has an incentive to use their night action to take out players who present the highest threat to them. As of night 1 the person who had done the most deduction and debate was Green Wing. But instead of taking out Green Wing, they opted to oust AFancyQuestionMark, who hadn't posted anything particularly controversial, and primarily agreed with other posters' reasoning. I personally think the mafia must have considered taking out Green Wing then decided against it, hoping they could convince town to vote her out.

Given that added context, do you still disagree with that idea?

Bucnasti
Aug 14, 2012

I'll Fetch My Sarcasm Robes
So at this point what do we have to go off of to determine who should be voted out next?
We've done a lot of justifying people's actions but not a lot of identifying who could still be scum.

Looking at the actual vote counts:

My Second Re-Reg (7): Green Wing, NeverHelm, Caffeinated Jerkoff, Jadecore, AFancyQuestionMark, LupusAter, Jadecore, PlasticAutomaton, Bucnasti
NeverHelm (1): My Second Re-Reg
Green Wing (1): Cloacamazing!
Jadecore (0): Green Wing, Green Wing

Not Voting (4): cuntman.net, Hyper Crab Tank, Jadecore, wologar

What's the most likely scum behavior? Not voting to stay unnoticed, voting for MSRR to kill a townie, or throwing out a red herring vote?

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.
Looking over that, I probably stand out as the oddest move in the vote counts, but I think I explained my reasoning at the time. Namely, a number of us were worried about potentially not getting enough discussion before a hammer, when we were sitting at 6, so I unvoted so that one person on their own couldn't end the talk. It made sense to me, at least, and I think we got some more time to talk things over out of it.

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.

Cloacamazing! posted:

Witch hunts are a thing.

LupusAter posted:

On the other hand, that being a perfectly reasonable and defensible position means that if she is scum she has great deniablility after the flip. Not that I think the fact she survived Night 1 is an indicator in any direction, and her general play reads as more town-ish to me, so there's that.

Fair enough! I mean, like I've said, I think Green Wing is probably town. Just saying that if that was their plan, it flopped pretty hard and the attempt at a witch hunt died fast.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
If you ask me, I still think the scummiest behavior is not saying much of anything, not contributing to the discussion, but voting anyway. My eye is still on some combination of LupusAter, PlasticAutomaton and one or two more - maybe Caffeinated Jerkoff, maybe cuntman.net.

cuntman.net
Mar 1, 2013

PlasticAutomaton posted:

I will not stand for this masonry erasure. (It's probably one of my favorite roles, having someone to bounce thoughts off of does wonders for keeping your mind in the game and keeping thoughts straight.)

Anyways. Hi everyone. Posting while watching SGDQ so pardon if I miss anything or am incoherent that's why. May as well clear the air. I was called in to be a last minute replacement to make sure this fired, and I was assured my role was as completely random as everyone else's. Didn't even bother reading it till night phase actually. It's a healthy paranoia though! If necessary, I'll claim later.

And yes, I did promise to post more D1 but I was lazy as gently caress.

i was joking about this before but this post is bugging me. its a justification for not posting much before and i get a sense that theres an intent here to not post much in the future


PlasticAutomaton posted:

So to start off, this is really bothering me. It's a massive leap that seems to be trying to immediately discredit Buscreti's theory without directly calling them scum.

in his next post he seems to be supporting the idea that green wing is scum. some people have said that the scum want us to vote out green wing today, so if thats the case, wouldnt this be suspicious behavior?

i'll say that i dont really agree with the theory that scum want us to vote for green wing, but these posts still seem weird to me

LupusAter
Sep 5, 2011

Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:

No one is claiming that not being killed implies anything on its own. We're adding the context that there are people who posted a bunch of theories and reasoning during day 1, and that those people present a potential threat to the Mafia.

It feels reasonable to say that the mafia has an incentive to use their night action to take out players who present the highest threat to them. As of night 1 the person who had done the most deduction and debate was Green Wing. But instead of taking out Green Wing, they opted to oust AFancyQuestionMark, who hadn't posted anything particularly controversial, and primarily agreed with other posters' reasoning. I personally think the mafia must have considered taking out Green Wing then decided against it, hoping they could convince town to vote her out.

Given that added context, do you still disagree with that idea?

I don't disagree with the idea, but that another thing the scum can do is kill low-activity players so that we get no clues from their posting. For what it's worth, I do read Green Wing as town, it's just that ascribing her survival to the scum hoping we lynch her feels like an overreach.

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.

Bucnasti posted:

What's the most likely scum behavior? Not voting to stay unnoticed, voting for MSRR to kill a townie, or throwing out a red herring vote?

It's unlikely that the whole scum team is doing the same thing. They'd want to avoid looking too aligned, especially early on when they should have no reason to be. Personally I think it's extremely likely that there's one or more scum in the vote. Seven townies coming together over such a long timespan with no scum joining in seems far-fetched. During the night I had actually thought AFancyQuestionMark to be one of the top suspects for a scum infiltrator because they were so quiet on the first day, but that's obviously not the case. So, out of the other five MSRR voters still around plus Jade who voted then withdrew, which of them is the most likely scum?

Green Wing is probably the most active poster in the thread and also the first to actually vote. But her posting seems genuine and mostly reads like an enthusiastic townie. Her logic for the vote also makes sense and is quite similar to mine. Don't think it's Green Wing.

Caffeinated Jerkoff is much less active, and a lot of their posts are speculation about the scum team's motivations. Some of that could be attempts to mislead, or to gain credibility by looking "insightful" later. The fact that they are pushing the "scum deliberately avoided Green Wing" narrative so much is indeed curious. Among the more probable candidates I think.

Jadecore distinguishes themselves from the rest by having withdrawn the vote later on. I'm not sure what to think of this. I do however think it would be strange for a scum to extend the vote against a townie just before the hammer and give more room to discuss, especially since being anti-discussion was a big part of the reason MSRR was being voted for to begin with. I suppose it could be performative, but Jade's other posts don't read scummy to me besides the early-game reluctance to vote with no information which makes some sense if you're a complete newbie. So I also don't think Jade is scum, at least that's what my gut feeling is.

LupusAter is a bit of a mystery to me, he doesn't stick out too much in the thread which could be good or bad. I did find it interesting that Lupus specifically brought up the possibility of masons being around, and indeed considered Lupus as a candidate for the other Mason as a result. But that post doesn't really mean anything in retrospect. I'm getting very neutral vibes from Lupus. Could be town, could be scum.

PlasticAutomaton is the one I'm most worried about. He's been sticking to the background a lot despite several calls to post more. We've gotten several justifications like "I don't want to interfere too much as a veteran player", "I was watching SGDQ" and "I'm just lazy". But at some point those excuses start to lose value. And he has piped in to explain game-related things, so he's clearly in the thread. His vote on MSRR also felt very bandwagony. However his posting isn't too far off what I remember from my last game with Plastic where he was town so... not 100% sure about him either.

Finally, there's Bucnasti, who I have discussed in detail already. I'm still unsure what to think about them, but for now I'm leaning towards town.

So, out of these Plastic seems the most likely candidate with Caffeinated Jerkoff in second and Lupus in third, with Bucnasti as the dark horse candidate. I am not yet confident enough in any of them to vote just yet though, and there are still the other four to consider. One or two of them are probably scum also, since I don't think the whole scum team would join the vote.

wologar
Feb 11, 2014

නෝනාවරුනි
After checking some previous games, PlasticAutomaton disappearing from the thread seems par for the course. I would still vote him just for the replacement/role stuff.

Jadecore is a bit suspicious, yes, but I want to trust her for now because I like her posts.

Green Wing gives me mostly town vibes, but she pinged me a little when she outright dismissed that the replacement role could be important.

I really want to support Bucnasti's mission to avenge his mason buddy because it sounds exciting, but only if enough evidence piles up.

wologar
Feb 11, 2014

නෝනාවරුනි
NeverHelm seems very helpful and engaged, so probably town.

CaffeinatedJerkoff and LupusAter are a giant '?' for me. They could be anything.

wologar
Feb 11, 2014

නෝනාවරුනි

wologar posted:

NeverHelm seems very helpful and engaged, so probably town.

So this sounded very naive (and probably is) but I haven't seen anything from NeverHelm that could be seen as scummy yet. Same for Hyper Crab Tank. I don't have any hard town reads, though.

Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


NeverHelm posted:

Caffeinated Jerkoff is much less active, and a lot of their posts are speculation about the scum team's motivations. Some of that could be attempts to mislead, or to gain credibility by looking "insightful" later. The fact that they are pushing the "scum deliberately avoided Green Wing" narrative so much is indeed curious. Among the more probable candidates I think.

I can explain my behavior, if it helps. A lot of my posts have been speculating about the scum team's motivations because I like that kind of deduction. Putting yourself in the enemy's shoes to try to determine their next move is fun.

I definitely got ahead of myself earlier calling out that scum would want us to vote Green Wing, I should've waited to see if anyone was going to join Bucnasti in pushing for people to vote for her. I got so excited about a scenario I thought of being possible that I rushed to post instead of waiting to see if it was actually happening. I blindly defended the possibility for a few posts, but seeing so many people baffled about my posts has made me realize that the theory I was pushing doesn't really get us anywhere. My bad! I would not make a very good detective, apparently.

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop
Votecount for Day 2

Green Wing (1): Bucnasti
Bucnasti (0): Green Wing, Green Wing
Cloacamazing! (0): Green Wing, Green Wing

Not Voting (10): Caffeinated Jerkoff, Cloacamazing!, cuntman.net, Green Wing, Hyper Crab Tank, Jadecore, LupusAter, NeverHelm, PlasticAutomaton, wologar

With 11 alive, it's 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is July 04th, 2022 at 5 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 17 hours.

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Bucnasti
Aug 14, 2012

I'll Fetch My Sarcasm Robes

votefinder posted:

Votecount for Day 2

Green Wing (1): Bucnasti
Bucnasti (0): Green Wing, Green Wing
Cloacamazing! (0): Green Wing, Green Wing

Not Voting (10): Caffeinated Jerkoff, Cloacamazing!, cuntman.net, Green Wing, Hyper Crab Tank, Jadecore, LupusAter, NeverHelm, PlasticAutomaton, wologar

With 11 alive, it's 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is July 04th, 2022 at 5 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 17 hours.

How is Green Wing voting for me, Cloacamazing and nobody at the same time?

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