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First of all, I wasn't defending Plastic, just pointing out that trying to divine the scum's motives from a single kill was faulty logic at best, and I still am suspicious of people who keep trying to sell that as a viable avenue. Second, I had a hellish start of the week at work and believed to have made the postcount during the weekend. I evidently miscounted, and the only thing I can say in my defense is that if I had someone to point that out, like a scumchat or a masonry, this wouldn't have happened. You obviously still are free to eliminate me, it'll make you get even with the missed nightkill.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:50
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Green Wing posted:The reasons from the last day haven't changed from last day and the more I look at their posts as a while, I strongly believe I see signs of what I'll call Weathervaning along with cases. If I'm correct in this, this would also make Plastic town. In fact the degree to which the reads on Bucnasti were so varied yesterday only strengthens my resolve here. Think I missed a trick not pushing this harder yesterday.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:50
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What's the most likely number of scum in a 13 player game? three? four? With our numbers dwindling voting early is going to become more dangerous, if it only takes 2 town votes to get somebody killed, I feel like commiting to votes is a bigger deal. I'm still really in favor of eliminating lupusater, but i don't want to vote until more of us are confident it's the right play. I'm also still very suspicious of Plastic, everyone else I have pretty neutral opinions at this point.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:57
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LupusAter posted:Second, I had a hellish start of the week at work and believed to have made the postcount during the weekend. I evidently miscounted, and the only thing I can say in my defense is that if I had someone to point that out, like a scumchat or a masonry, this wouldn't have happened. You obviously still are free to eliminate me, it'll make you get even with the missed nightkill.
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Jul 6, 2022 20:58
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Bucnasti posted:What's the most likely number of scum in a 13 player game? three? four? I agree, which is why I'm going for my strongest suspicion that I've had across multiple days. I would expect 3 scum by reading setups. Which would mean we're not in EXLO today. I am 100% willing to pin my aim on you. Further I think this post here is similarly weathervany. No original ideas, and the ones said not strongly stated. I think it's a well performed scum play, and strongly encourage others to join.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:05
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I don’t really buy Bucnasti as scum at this point. The whole masonry debacle yesterday felt too genuinely caught up in personal dedication with fiddly questions around which type of masonry might be in place. If it was a scum play, that was some really masterful acting. Which, no offense, Bucnasti, isn’t really a vibe I get from you unless you were getting straight up coached, which seems really improbable.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:15
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Jadecore posted:I don’t really buy Bucnasti as scum at this point. The whole masonry debacle yesterday felt too genuinely caught up in personal dedication with fiddly questions around which type of masonry might be in place. If it was a scum play, that was some really masterful acting. Which, no offense, Bucnasti, isn’t really a vibe I get from you unless you were getting straight up coached, which seems really improbable. It was not as complex as you are describing. Water-muddying and tossing a vote against a toenie (me) out there to see if anybody bit. Nobody did, but worth a punt from scum. Later on, wologar played himself so it wasn't necessary. I don't think any significant coaching would have been required to decide to play it off as blinded by Mason loyalty.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:20
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I'm not entirely sold on Bucnasti as scum just yet - pretty neutral read on them so far. But I think this is a bit strange.Bucnasti posted:I'm still really in favor of eliminating lupusater, but i don't want to vote until more of us are confident it's the right play.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:36
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NeverHelm posted:I'm not entirely sold on Bucnasti as scum just yet - pretty neutral read on them so far. But I think this is a bit strange. It's a bad look that is consistent with a bad look so far this game. I am very confident that at this time scum are conferring, potentially with Bucnasti also, about how to approach this. I think part of the issue in the last yeah days was how the vote got to the "obvious" candidates. Easy for weather vanes and bandwagons. At this stage in the game its going to get less obvious - and scumbuddies are going to cloud the waters, not directly defend each other but look for an easier target.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:43
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If you think you know who all the scum are, I think you should just present your theory. Chances are you'll have a target on your back anyway if the vote passes and it turns out you're right. But I'm still on Bucnasti being town so I need more to go on, especially after you've dangled that in front of us.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:54
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:If you think you know who all the scum are, I think you should just present your theory. Chances are you'll have a target on your back anyway if the vote passes and it turns out you're right. But I'm still on Bucnasti being town so I need more to go on, especially after you've dangled that in front of us. No. Just Bucnasti for now. Don't want to spook the others.
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Jul 6, 2022 21:58
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Green Wing posted:No. Just Bucnasti for now. Don't want to spook the others. To elaborate - nothing to gain from setting out full theory this early in the day. Most confident about Bucnasti, I want to see how the others respond. I think there's enough in buc's behaviour to warrant people setting out their full reads rather than dismissing out of hand.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:01
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Triple post, sorry - also in truth I'd like to and my Very Long post until I get my computer back from repair so can type normally.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:03
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All right, I mean, my reasoning is the same as it was before. I think the masonry thing is too specific to make up on the spot and I don't think scum would've piled on Re-Reg day one when they would've benefited more from keeping him in the game. If you have some convincing reasoning that counters that, let's hear it.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:03
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Hyper Crab Tank posted:All right, I mean, my reasoning is the same as it was before. I think the masonry thing is too specific to make up on the spot and I don't think scum would've piled on Re-Reg day one when they would've benefited more from keeping him in the game. If you have some convincing reasoning that counters that, let's hear it. I don't think the masonry is made up - as I've said before, the masonry is irrelevant. It confers no value to whether either buc is town. It is possible - or rather, it's /good play/ for scum to see a credible or even sensible attack line and then adopt it because it's against a townie. So with wologar (the credible argument being his strange posting), and so attempted with me (the credible argument being 'my Mason buddy was very convincing in our secret chats'). I don't think it's necessary for all of the scum to have piled on to rereg for that vote to go through. Bus's vote was when it was already a done deal. I actually think a mixed masonry poses significant risk of the scum in the pair slipping, making it at best a neutral value. I suggest scum were ambivalent but happy to lose a townie, even if the masonry had value. Bucnasti made clear he was willing to move to plastic also - agreeing with the crowd. In fact, I'll now go at far to say - I think the lack of a night kill confirms that Plastic is Town. Why? As I said in my posts yesterday, I found plastic's soft claim very suspicious. Why would he take the risk of painting a target on his back? I think that no-kills are one of the few times that analysis of who got night killed is useful. And I think the thing is, he did take that risk. And I propose that the scum did attack him. And either he knew he'd be safe (bulletproof role) or /the protective role also thought he was telling the truth about having a power role/. Either way, Town. This compounds Buc's weathervaning - either way, town dies.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:16
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Green Wing posted:To elaborate - nothing to gain from setting out full theory this early in the day. Most confident about Bucnasti, I want to see how the others respond. I think there's enough in buc's behaviour to warrant people setting out their full reads rather than dismissing out of hand. I lean town on Bucnasti because most of their early posts D2 suggest that while they did have a masonry with MSRR, they weren't particularly informed otherwise (especially that part about MSRR being a sub Mason). If they are scum there wasn't really any reason for them to honor MSRR's final request to vote for you in retaliation, and I don't think they are lying about that because of MSRR's last post. So I don't assign any particular importance to that vote. Their narrative does hold up and my head. It could just be a really good act, but my intuition says otherwise. Their indecisiveness does muddy the waters a bit though, which is why I'm not ruling it out completely. And they could be completely honest about everything I said earlier and still be scum. Green Wing posted:In fact, I'll now go at far to say - I think the lack of a night kill confirms that Plastic is Town. This is a huge leap. There's another reasonable explanation: Plastic didn't take a risk at all, because he's scum. It's much too early to say that him surviving clears him.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:27
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Green Wing is either a masterful scum or a terrible townie, I was leaning towards the later but this last post points me back at thinking they're scum.Green Wing posted:
Why would scum target Plastic for a nightkill? and why would a defensive townie try to protect them? They were the alternate suspicion from everyone else, and it was expected that if wolgor was town that plastic would be the next vote. Now I"m thinking scum team is Plastic, Green Wing and Lupus, and I'll go ahead and commit to that. ##vote PlasticAutomaton ##eliminate LupusAter
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Jul 6, 2022 22:29
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Bucnasti posted:
The answer to both of these is clear and simple - because Plastic hinted be had a power role. I do not think there is a clear enough alternative target for a protective role to have coincided with the scum target (though simple chance is an option)
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Jul 6, 2022 22:39
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Green Wing posted:The answer to both of these is clear and simple - because Plastic hinted be had a power role. PlasticAutomaton posted:The whole crux of the argument involved roles, so I figured I'd be open and pledge to claim if needed. It's not even saying I actually HAVE a role, I could just be loving with scum after all.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:46
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But I'll be stepping out for errands and be around before deadline, so offer's on the table if people are still concerned.
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The alternative is that A protective role is going to have to make a decision - not "who do I want to save" but "who are scum most likely to target". I think a doctor may well think that they buy that plastic is town, that they make a good kill target - both for the fact that they softclaimed (and it /was/ a softclaim even if it was later tamped down) and for the fact that there was general ill feeling which would mean limited information from the flip. I'm speculating, yes - but it makes more sense to me that a random alignment of target/protectee. I realised at the start of this day that we're potentially closer to the end than I thought. If we get this kill wrong it's EXLO tomorrow provided that there's a nightkill. Hence being a bit more forthright in my thoughts. (side note, that said I think I was too quick off the mark about Lupus and will ##retract, again because of now fully internalising how close we could be to the end)
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Jul 6, 2022 22:56
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Green Wing posted:The answer to both of these is clear and simple - because Plastic hinted be had a power role. When exactly was the hint about the power roll? Day 1 or Day 2? If it's day 1 then that just reinforces my suspicions that they're scum because they were not targeted on Night 1.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:57
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I mean... You might be right about Plastic being town, but to go so far as to say he's confirmed town for not dying is a huge stretch. I'll grant you that your theory makes some sense, and is more compelling than random chance. But we don't have nearly enough information to clear Plastic based on a hunch like that.
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Jul 6, 2022 22:59
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Votecount for Day 3  PlasticAutomaton (2): NeverHelm, Bucnasti Bucnasti (1): Green Wing Not Voting (7): Caffeinated Jerkoff, Cloacamazing!, cuntman.net, Hyper Crab Tank, Jadecore, LupusAter, PlasticAutomatonWith 10 alive, it's 6 votes to execute. The current deadline is July 08th, 2022 at 5 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 21 hours.
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Jul 7, 2022 00:56
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Votecount for eliminating LupusAter (2): Green Wing Hyper Crab Tank Neverhelm Bucnasti Maerlyn fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Jul 7, 2022 |
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Jul 7, 2022 00:57
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I realized I'm not 100 percent sure: what's EXLO actually mean? A loss condition, obviously, but I can't quite interpret the acronym. Green Wing posted:I do not think there is a clear enough alternative target for a protective role to have coincided with the scum target (though simple chance is an option) I mean, there is, actually. You, unless we're all horribly misled. Your active posting and constant regaling of various arguments and thoughts make you high profile, and most of us think that you're an enthusiastic town member. If the scum decided to try and decapitate someone in a 'leadership' role in town, you would be an obvious target. I'm with NeverHelm; I think it's possible Plastic is town at this point, especially now that he's started talking more actively, but I don't think not dying overnight clears him of suspicion. Green Wing posted:It was not as complex as you are describing. Water-muddying and tossing a vote against a toenie (me) out there to see if anybody bit. Nobody did, but worth a punt from scum. Later on, wologar played himself so it wasn't necessary. I don't think any significant coaching would have been required to decide to play it off as blinded by Mason loyalty. As for this... that's a broad picture interpretation of what happened, but I'm talking more about HOW it actually went down. Namely, devolving into a confused debate about mechanics with a lot of absolute certainty but not as much of a constructed argument. Bucnasti's masonry story when all pulled together totally checks out, but if it was a scum devised plot, I feel like that argument would have been presented together at the beginning instead of having to be pulled together. The lack of cohesion in presentation sells it to me as clumsy but genuine.
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Jul 7, 2022 01:08
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Jadecore posted:I realized I'm not 100 percent sure: what's EXLO actually mean? A loss condition, obviously, but I can't quite interpret the acronym. There's a useful glossary in the Mafia Discussion Thread OP For Exlo specifically: The Mafia Discussion Thread OP posted:● Lylo (Exlo, ELO) - “Lunch or Lose” (also known as Exlo or ELO for “Execute or Lose”), referring to a situation where the players must vote someone out that day, or scum are likely to win through gaining control of the vote after another Night Kill.
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Jul 7, 2022 01:19
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so some people have been making lists and i figured i'd do that too both to get my thoughts in order and because it might be helpful to have this information out there. so from least posts to most posts: lupusater: hard to get a read because they havent really been posting much, and havent been putting much opinions into their posts. hard to tell either way, but i think that means theyd lean towards scum. feel free to call me out on my hypocrisy cloacamazing: their vote for wologar really reads like a bus to me. its not much more than a gut feeling and their thoughts behind it seem reasonable, but if i had to vote for someone right this second, i'd probably vote for them. i posted some more reasoning for this under the list plasticautomaton: i was suspicious of them at first because they werent posting much but then they posted and contributed more than all my posts put together so now i have no idea what to think caffeinated jerkoff: on one hand, they come across as suspicious to me for the same reason as cloacamazing but probably less so because they called out cloacamazing out for it. i still think their theory that scum wanted us to vote for green wing is strange, but now that we know theres some kind of blocker role, this might be an explanation for that jadecore: not really sure what to think here. also voted for wologar but this reads more to me as because wologar was about to get voted out anyway so someone had to do the paperwork bucnasti: pretty sure theyre mason if nothing else. have no idea if theyre scum or not, but i still dont understand why theyre still gunning for green wing after all this time. im especially wondering why they think green wing is suspicious in the first place. revenge for your fellow mason is a noble goal but i dont see how it helps us find the scum neverhelm: im inclined to think town because theyve been posting a lot of detailed reasoning. i do think its a bit weird how suddenly they shifted their vote towards wologar, but im not as suspicious of them as cloacamazing or caffeinated jerkoff hyper crab tank: seems like town to me for the same reason as neverhelm green wing: not even going to bother looking through their post history but theyre the one im most certain is town because of the mixup with the masons so heres something thats been on my mind: earlier in the day, people were more interested in voting out plastic automaton before the momentum shifted towards wologar. cloacamazing was the one who cast the vote to put wologar ahead and caffeinated jerkoff voted right after that. theres probably plenty of good reasons for that, it was nearing the end of the day and we had to vote for someone, and people were already waffling on plastic automaton, but it still feels off to me. i think at least one of them is scum for that reason. obviously jadecore and i are suspicious for the same reasons but i voted because i didnt want the day to end without a vote and i get the feeling thats also what jadecore did i could be completely wrong here but i still think we should pay attention to when the momentum turned against wologar as for who was targeted during the night, i think plastic automaton is one of the least likely options. they already had some heat on them, if the mafia wanted to get rid of them, it would make more sense to try to get them voted out
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Jul 7, 2022 02:09
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oh, as for whether to eliminate lupusater, i want to give them a chance to defend themself first, but i'd also want some time to think about the information from a flip, so i'll probably wait until around the 24 hour mark before voting
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Jul 7, 2022 02:14
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One of two scenarios are true in regards to my alignment: Either I'm a mastermind scum player who's intentionally faking not knowing how the rules work, what the roles are, or how the game was setup, and also giving up a major advantage by offing my fellow mason AND intentionally loving up my reveal to further muddy the waters. Or I'm a newbie townie who's never played the game before and is learning as they go. I appreciate anyone who thinks the former is possible. The only thing that keeps me from being 100% sure Green Wing is scum is the reaction to my revealing I was the other Mason. It's possible it was a head-fake but it seemed to genuine. Other than that Green Wing is constantly throwing out new theories, changing their votes, driving the conversation to specific people, and generally creating chaos, which all seem like good scum moves to me.
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Jul 7, 2022 04:23
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thats a good point. itd be impressive to be scum and not let anything slip after pretty much being the threads main character for a day im sorry for coming back to this over and over but when did you first get suspicious of green wing?
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Jul 7, 2022 04:54
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cuntman.net posted:so heres something thats been on my mind: earlier in the day, people were more interested in voting out plastic automaton before the momentum shifted towards wologar. cloacamazing was the one who cast the vote to put wologar ahead and caffeinated jerkoff voted right after that. theres probably plenty of good reasons for that, it was nearing the end of the day and we had to vote for someone, and people were already waffling on plastic automaton, but it still feels off to me. i think at least one of them is scum for that reason. obviously jadecore and i are suspicious for the same reasons but i voted because i didnt want the day to end without a vote and i get the feeling thats also what jadecore did 2 hours passed between Cloacamazing's vote and mine. 30 minutes passed between Jadecore's vote and yours I do think Cloacamazing is probably scum, but whatever you're doing with this part of your post is either bad deduction or straight-up trying to give people a misleading impression
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Jul 7, 2022 05:09
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Aw crap. I was really confident in my reading of wologar at the end. It looks like their secret love affair with the paddle clouded their judgement.Green Wing posted:In fact, I'll now go at far to say - I think the lack of a night kill confirms that Plastic is Town. I mostly agree with that. If Plastic was town, the whole discussion leading up to wologar's vote would have painted a target on his back, because while scum knew wologar wasn't one of their own trying to get rid of a threat, they might have shared the role suspicion. I was expecting either Plastic to get killed at night, or one of the lurkers to give us no information. (In that case, I would have voted for Plastic.)
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Jul 7, 2022 05:29
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LupusAter posted:First of all, I wasn't defending Plastic, just pointing out that trying to divine the scum's motives from a single kill was faulty logic at best, and I still am suspicious of people who keep trying to sell that as a viable avenue. Maerlyn linked this earlier, it's been very helpful for me to keep track of my post count: https://forums.somethingawful.com/misc.php?action=whoposted&threadid=4004626 You're currently sitting at 18, so 17 before this day phase. Looks like you closely missed the cutoff both times. I try to poop out stuff towards the end of the day if I'm close, true to my name.
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Jul 7, 2022 05:33
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Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:2 hours passed between Cloacamazing's vote and mine. 30 minutes passed between Jadecore's vote and yours well the time periods before those were 7 hours and 30 hours but sure okay (sincere) maybe that part doesnt hold up, and i did say earlier that the day ending is plenty of reason for votes to come in quicker. but im sticking to my point that the momentum shifted away from plastic automaton towards wologar really suddenly and im interested in why that happened
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Jul 7, 2022 05:35
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You're looking to much at the votes and not at the posts. There was a lot of talk between the vote shift, actually for most of day 2 no votes were cast. I'm starting to think scum is banking on us doing that. It's a lot easier to say "X voted for Y first, that's suspicious", because votefinder neatly lists that information and links to the vote, but a lot of the discussion posts also contain reasoning meant to influence other people. And if you can get enough people to do that, you don't need to make your vote obvious, or vote at all.
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Jul 7, 2022 05:50
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Cloacamazing! posted:You're looking to much at the votes and not at the posts. There was a lot of talk between the vote shift, actually for most of day 2 no votes were cast. mafia edit: too much
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Jul 7, 2022 05:50
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cuntman.net posted:thats a good point. itd be impressive to be scum and not let anything slip after pretty much being the threads main character for a day Towards the end of Day 1. I'm not allowed to directly quote mason chat but I can paraphrase our discussion before MSRR was removed: Me - Pointed out that Neverhelm is suspect because he claimed to be a newbie but wasn't acting like one. MSRR - Agreed <some discussion about my birthday and what I would have for lunch Spoiler: it was a burrito> MSRR — they're targeting us both. Me - Pointed out that Green Wing is suspect, acting overly paranoid is a pretty obvious scum play. MSRR - Agreed, thought Green Wing was trying too hard <time passed and the votes against MSRR piled up> MSRR - Concedes defeat, says that their death would say a lot. Me - I think Nevrhelm and Green Wing coordinated to target MSRR, but I have no evidence to back it up. If I have to I'll vote for MSRR just so we'll know for sure. If MSRR is town I'll go after Green Wing and Neverhelm <couple of people back off their votes against MSRR> MSRR - There's a chance he'll survive, Says he wouldn't blame me if I had to be the one to vote him off. Also says Green Wing and Neverhelm are both scum. MSRR- Says he'll enjoy the I told you so moment. <I cast the final vote> ME - If you're innocent I'm going to push hard on day 2, and if you're scum then you deserved it for being a bad mason. <Fist bump emojis> MSRR - Hope you don't get targeted next <the flip revealed MSRR was Town and they were removed from the mason chat> Me to Mods: Please tell MSRR that I will avenge him. The rest you guys have seen, I drove hard on Green Wing on Day 2 like I said i would. Revealed my role as Mason, which caused a lot of confusion. Green Wing reacted like a townie, which crushed my entire idea that Neverhelm and Green Wing were coordinating. I moved my suspicion over to Plastic based on the idea that they would be the primary target for scum on N1, along with LupusAter because they didn't vote and all their posts were deflections, mostly away from Plastic. I still stand on this, unless somebody wants to come forward and say they defended Plastic on N2, which I can't imagine anyone would do. If Green Wing is scum, then bravo, you deserve to win this game. If Green Wing isn't scum then good job losing it for town.
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Jul 7, 2022 06:21
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cuntman.net posted:well the time periods before those were 7 hours and 30 hours but sure okay (sincere) I think the shift probably started around when Green Wing revoked their Plastic vote. wologar getting upset about that wasn't a good look, and right after that Plastic appeared to start scumhunting
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Jul 7, 2022 06:23
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I just thought of one other possibility. Green Wing could be so sure that Plastic isn't Scum because Green Wing has a defensive role that they used to protect Plastic on N2. At which point, I'm back to the beginning and have no idea who to vote out.
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Jul 7, 2022 06:30
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im going to sleep on my theory a bit, it sounded better in my head. i still think cloacamazing is scum but at this point i dont think both cloacamazing and caffeinated jerkoff are scum because drat he'd be really viciously throwing her under the bus if so also happy late birthday to bucnasti
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Jul 7, 2022 06:48
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