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Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:

I'm gonna guess one scum joined the vote and one didn't. I'm also optimistically assuming there are only 3 of them

*optimistically assuming there were only 3 of them/are only 2 of them remaining

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Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil
At least this time I'm happy that I was wrong, although it's still weird that I was the only one to specifically not want to vote for LupusAter. To be honest, at this point my only defense for this and wologar is down to "Would scum really be so open about trying to influence people?"

Basically, when I cast my vote for wologar, them and Plastic were sitting at two each. The general consensus had turned against wologar, but nobody was voting and it had been like this for a while. I took the first step there and people followed durung the next couple of hours. Since wologar turned up town, the obvious suspicion was always going to fall on me. Same with LupusAter, since he flipped town, I'm the only one to openly speak up about not wanting to vote him out. I see how this could read as a last ditch effort to save him, but on the other hand, my opinion probably holds little sway with most townies at this point and as we saw, it fortunately turned out that I was advocating for the wrong person.

My reluctance to vote really did come only from me not liking the idea of kicking someone out for lurker rules. I'm a habitual lurker myself, and as you might be able to glimpse from my posts, I've been paranoid about the lurker rules since the beginning. I'm starting to calm down on that front, the thread statistics are helping, along with the fact that I made it past the threshold on the first two days, but it's a thing for me. I sympathized with a fellow lurker. Logically speaking, I knew that an inactive townie was a bit of a risk, but I was banking on the elimination vote being a wakeup call.


Unfortunately, since LupusAter was removed for lurker rules, there's not a lot of stuff to go on. He voted for MSRR on Day 1, nobody on Day 2 and NeverHelm on Day 3. The question is, dig at NeverHelm for voting for him or scum buddies trying to make each other look innocent? Looking through both their posts, the two have been kind of at each other's throats for a while now, so it could go both ways. They were relatively early on all votes, so at the very least, nobody can accuse them of bandwagoning.

Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil

Cloacamazing! posted:

At least this time I'm happy that I was wrong, although it's still weird that I was the only one to specifically not want to vote for LupusAter. To be honest, at this point my only defense for this and wologar is down to "Would scum really be so open about trying to influence people?"

Basically, when I cast my vote for wologar, them and Plastic were sitting at two each. The general consensus had turned against wologar, but nobody was voting and it had been like this for a while. I took the first step there and people followed durung the next couple of hours. Since wologar turned up town, the obvious suspicion was always going to fall on me. Same with LupusAter, since he flipped town, I'm the only one to openly speak up about not wanting to vote him out. I see how this could read as a last ditch effort to save him, but on the other hand, my opinion probably holds little sway with most townies at this point and as we saw, it fortunately turned out that I was advocating for the wrong person.

My reluctance to vote really did come only from me not liking the idea of kicking someone out for lurker rules. I'm a habitual lurker myself, and as you might be able to glimpse from my posts, I've been paranoid about the lurker rules since the beginning. I'm starting to calm down on that front, the thread statistics are helping, along with the fact that I made it past the threshold on the first two days, but it's a thing for me. I sympathized with a fellow lurker. Logically speaking, I knew that an inactive townie was a bit of a risk, but I was banking on the elimination vote being a wakeup call.


Unfortunately, since LupusAter was removed for lurker rules, there's not a lot of stuff to go on. He voted for MSRR on Day 1, nobody on Day 2 and NeverHelm on Day 3. The question is, dig at NeverHelm for voting for him or scum buddies trying to make each other look innocent? Looking through both their posts, the two have been kind of at each other's throats for a while now, so it could go both ways. They were relatively early on all votes, so at the very least, nobody can accuse them of bandwagoning.

Oh for crying out loud. LupusAter flipped scum, not town, of course. I need to stop changing my posts a dozen times. Someone give me my edit button.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


:toot:

Okay, wrestling with bad headspace, but up to date. I'll start spamming posts in the morning, as I have a few ideas I want to get out and on the board, just not awake enough to do that right now.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
:toot: Finally, some good news! The gods demand repentance!

NeverHelm posted:

That doesn't make any sense Lupus. Scumbuddies voting you would be slowing down their wincondition. They don't gain any time from that. It's the exact opposite. The day isn't ending either. At most they'd be going neutral if they can swing it into executing a town somehow. I might see them joining in at the very end, if it looked like a done deal and they wanted to win brownie points with town. But it won't "buy them time".

I'd like to emphasize this. Because of the unique circumstances of the elimination vote, scum had a strong incentive this time to not bus too early, since that would give us more time to discuss the results of the flip. If anything they would've preferred no termination at all (obviously), or as late as possible in order to deny us information for as long as possible. Does that mean everyone who voted for termination is town? No, but I think the ones who voted earlier are more likely town than the later ones and those that didn't vote at all.

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.
All right! Glad to see I'm not entirely off base this game. Lupus turning out to be scum (and a roleblocker, no less) makes me even more confident in my reads on Plastic and Cloacamazing. The latter has a stronger scum case at this point, mostly because Plastic seems to spends more time making excuses for not posting than actually saying things and thus leaving little evidence to go on (and when he actually did participate, it was typically to vote a townie). But I think both are scum, so I'll stick to my promise to wologar from Day 2 and keep the vote on Plastic for now. I don't mind switching to Cloacamazing if that's what the rest of town decides, however.

The main question in my mind is this: Was there a scum in the Lupus vote? Since this was essentially a bonus execution, I think scum had a lot less incentive to participate. But if there was one in there, I think it's either Caffeinated Jerkoff or Jadecore. I'm not especially confident in either of those as scum right now. Going by my Day 2 logic of scum diversifying their plays, there were one or two scum votes on MSRR. I'm thinking those were PlasticAutomaton and LupusAter, with Cloacamazing making a move on Green Wing to distinguish herself from them. For now I think I'm going to assume there were no scum voting Lupus, and focus on my other two scumreads. But if that isn't enough to end the game, then I'll be looking at others.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Okay, well, we can't rest on our laurels just because we caught one scum. We have another vote to pull off in... something like 8 hours? At least some of the pressure is off.

With the knowledge that LupusAter was mafia, I want to go back and look at some of his old posts. His most recent posts before the hammer strike me as just a Hail Mary attempt to convince enough people to retract the vote, so it's no surprise it's generally in line with what everyone else has been saying. I'm more interested in his older posts, not that there's a lot to go on. The only thing that sticks out is kind of vaguely defending Plastic (though he claims not to have done that) and proclaiming Green Wing and Bucnasti to probably be town.

Honestly, it's not a lot to go on. But nothing has changed in my assessment about Plastic, it's been like a week now and despite repeatedly saying so there has been no effortpost forthcoming. The only time he's posted more than once about the same person, it's been to make a case against wologar, who was town. I'm also suspicious of the fact that he has repeatedly claimed to need some time to read back on discussions, yet responded to Cloacamazing editing her post within minutes, suggested he has been actively monitoring the thread at least at that time. All this passivity seems at the very least anti-town but more likely scum.

I'll be around all day so I'll cast my vote later. But all this offering to post and claim and never following it up is getting really tiresome and I know I'm not the only one to think that.

Green Wing
Oct 28, 2013

It's the only word they know, but it's such a big word for a tiny creature

Mm.

So I'm alright with still banging the Cloaca drum some more as with yesterday.

But with Plastic - in a sense, the lack of people coming out to say that my plastic-is-town concept makes sense suggests it's false (because a protective role would have needed to have actually acted that way, right?)

So, eh. If that isn't true then I guess my vote for Plastic yesterday can just be repeated today, since that means his position on the suspicious list remains.

Since it's only a majority of five I'll hold back, for once.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation

Green Wing posted:

I'm alright with still banging the Cloaca drum some more

These words in that order are a crime against decency and I won't stand for it.

But seriously: I've been trying to think about what kinds of roles are still around. I think we can safely assume scum wouldn't just fail to kill at night given the opportunity, and also that LupusAter didn't roleblock one of his own. That leaves us with a few possible explanations, some good, some bad. I'm not sure I want to bring them up, though. I mean, realistically the mafia chat has already hashed them all out, but you never know. But not all of them involve a protective role, and the ones that do imply whoever has that role has a strong incentive to shut up about it.

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.
Well, I suppose that worked out. Not exactly a traditional way to eliminate scum, I imagine, but what works, works. ...still felt bad, honestly.

That being said, Lupus being scum does give me enough confidence to ##vote Plastic Automaton. Despite claims otherwise, it does feel like a significant amount of Lupus' posting was targeted to be protective of Plastic. And while we've gotten more good thoughts from Plastic since the tide really started threatening them, it's not really enough to clear them of suspicion. I'm perfectly willing to change it if a better suspect arises, but... I'm probably not going to swap off this just because someone starts insinuating master plans and "kill me if it satisfies you" rambling because at this point that seems to be something townsfolk do.

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop
Votecount for Day 3

PlasticAutomaton (3): NeverHelm, Bucnasti, Jadecore
Cloacamazing! (1): Caffeinated Jerkoff
Bucnasti (0): Green Wing, Green Wing

Not Voting (5): Cloacamazing!, cuntman.net, Green Wing, Hyper Crab Tank, PlasticAutomaton

With 9 alive, it's 5 votes to execute. The current deadline is July 08th, 2022 at 5 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 5 hours, 36 minutes.

Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


Jadecore posted:

Well, I suppose that worked out. Not exactly a traditional way to eliminate scum, I imagine, but what works, works. ...still felt bad, honestly.

That being said, Lupus being scum does give me enough confidence to ##vote Plastic Automaton. Despite claims otherwise, it does feel like a significant amount of Lupus' posting was targeted to be protective of Plastic. And while we've gotten more good thoughts from Plastic since the tide really started threatening them, it's not really enough to clear them of suspicion. I'm perfectly willing to change it if a better suspect arises, but... I'm probably not going to swap off this just because someone starts insinuating master plans and "kill me if it satisfies you" rambling because at this point that seems to be something townsfolk do.

lol

I'm a little bit concerned by the possibility that Plastic is town, and that the "Plastic vs wologar" framing that came up towards the end of Day 2 is leading us into throwing out another town member. But I definitely agree with HCT's observation that Plastic posting "Working on getting my thoughts together, will post shortly" gets more suspicious each time he doesn't follow through. And my main scum read, Cloacamazing, has been trying to be more involved with the thread. And the current votes on Plastic are from people I get town-leaning reads from, generally...

In the interest of not putting us in hammer territory, I'm gonna hold off from voting for a little while. I'd like to see a defense from Plastic before the deadline.

cuntman.net
Mar 1, 2013

i still want to vote plastic automaton but he said he was going to post some thoughts this morning, maybe including a role claim and i'd like to see those first. if hes scum we can just ignore all of that and if hes town then we'll feel real dumb if we miss out on that

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation

cuntman.net posted:

i still want to vote plastic automaton but he said he was going to post some thoughts this morning, maybe including a role claim and i'd like to see those first. if hes scum we can just ignore all of that and if hes town then we'll feel real dumb if we miss out on that

I basically agree with this. But if nothing manifests before the deadline, I won't hesitate to vote.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


Yeah, I've been kinda wrestling with bad headspace for most of this game. Thanks for the patience. Gonna be making multiple posts as I gather my thoughts.

So let's start with the most direct evidence on the table.

Maerlyn posted:

LupusAter votecount

Green Wing
Hyper Crab Tank
Neverhelm
Hyper Crab Tank
Bucnasti
Green Wing
Hyper Crab Tank
Green Wing
Hyper Crab Tank
Caffeinated Jerkoff
Hyper Crab Tank
Jadecore

Not Voting (4): Cloacamazing!, cuntman.net, LupusAter, PlasticAutomaton

I believe this reaches majority and LupusAter is voted out. Will post flip in a moment, want to confirm nothing was missed.

I'm assuming at least one of the scum was not on this vote, as losing a teammate in the middle of the day would be absolutely disastrous. Of the four not voting, Lupus was the target, and I was just not here. That leaves Cloaca and cuntman. Now, let's go back and look at their posts for today.

Cloaca

Cloacamazing! posted:

You're looking to much at the votes and not at the posts. There was a lot of talk between the vote shift, actually for most of day 2 no votes were cast.

I'm starting to think scum is banking on us doing that. It's a lot easier to say "X voted for Y first, that's suspicious", because votefinder neatly lists that information and links to the vote, but a lot of the discussion posts also contain reasoning meant to influence other people. And if you can get enough people to do that, you don't need to make your vote obvious, or vote at all.

I'm starting with the last post in this exchange. This whole argument with Cuntman and CJ felt weird, and I'm still not sure I get the point of it, as it seems to boil down to. "Don't look at the evidence, that's just what scum wants you to do." Which is the most mind-boggling take.

Cloacamazing! posted:

I'm opposed to the idea of kicking LupusAter out at this point. I'm a bit suspicious of most of the lurkers and non-voters because it's hard to get a read on them and might be a sign they're busy posting in their Discord channel, but it's not enough for me to cast an elimination vote here. Add to that, while people are swinging back and forth on the matter, nobody has really spoken up against voting him out, which scum would have an interest in.

Of course half the thread has voiced their suspicions about me after yesterday's debacle, so saying that might have the opposite effect now. And since despite all that I haven't even gotten a single vote, I'm beginning to suspect myself here.

She's the only one to actively defend Lupus, which is something I'd normally consider to be a bad town play. At the time of this post, it's pretty obvious that Lupus is going to flip, and there's absolutely no reason for a scum player to stick their neck out defending their teammate at the last minute.

Cloacamazing! posted:

At least this time I'm happy that I was wrong, although it's still weird that I was the only one to specifically not want to vote for LupusAter. To be honest, at this point my only defense for this and wologar is down to "Would scum really be so open about trying to influence people?"

Basically, when I cast my vote for wologar, them and Plastic were sitting at two each. The general consensus had turned against wologar, but nobody was voting and it had been like this for a while. I took the first step there and people followed durung the next couple of hours. Since wologar turned up town, the obvious suspicion was always going to fall on me. Same with LupusAter, since he flipped town, I'm the only one to openly speak up about not wanting to vote him out. I see how this could read as a last ditch effort to save him, but on the other hand, my opinion probably holds little sway with most townies at this point and as we saw, it fortunately turned out that I was advocating for the wrong person.

My reluctance to vote really did come only from me not liking the idea of kicking someone out for lurker rules. I'm a habitual lurker myself, and as you might be able to glimpse from my posts, I've been paranoid about the lurker rules since the beginning. I'm starting to calm down on that front, the thread statistics are helping, along with the fact that I made it past the threshold on the first two days, but it's a thing for me. I sympathized with a fellow lurker. Logically speaking, I knew that an inactive townie was a bit of a risk, but I was banking on the elimination vote being a wakeup call.

Unfortunately, since LupusAter was removed for lurker rules, there's not a lot of stuff to go on. He voted for MSRR on Day 1, nobody on Day 2 and NeverHelm on Day 3. The question is, dig at NeverHelm for voting for him or scum buddies trying to make each other look innocent? Looking through both their posts, the two have been kind of at each other's throats for a while now, so it could go both ways. They were relatively early on all votes, so at the very least, nobody can accuse them of bandwagoning.

...So I actually think Cloaca might be town. The justification for her votes is a little bit overwrought, but she immediately takes the flip and starts trying to dig into Lupus' posting history. The one thing I don't like though is her immediately bringing up the voting record as evidence given the argument about not using it as evidence earlier.

(1/???)

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


Cuntman

..So before anything else, I'm just going to do this, because I realized something. We're on day 3 and Cuntman has not put a single vote down for anyone at all this game. Before even digging into his posts and pointing out what's been bothering me, I think that is the single most direct evidence against him right now and it is a massive red flag.

##vote: Cuntman

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.

PlasticAutomaton posted:

She's the only one to actively defend Lupus, which is something I'd normally consider to be a bad town play. At the time of this post, it's pretty obvious that Lupus is going to flip, and there's absolutely no reason for a scum player to stick their neck out defending their teammate at the last minute.

...So I actually think Cloaca might be town.

Ok, there's a lot in this post but this sticks out to me. It was not at all obvious that Lupus was going to go down. Several people had retracted their votes, HCT was wavering and even withdrew right after Cloaca made that post. This seems like retroactive justification.

cuntman.net
Mar 1, 2013

PlasticAutomaton posted:

Cuntman

..So before anything else, I'm just going to do this, because I realized something. We're on day 3 and Cuntman has not put a single vote down for anyone at all this game. Before even digging into his posts and pointing out what's been bothering me, I think that is the single most direct evidence against him right now and it is a massive red flag.

##vote: Cuntman

thats not true though. i voted for wologar. ive also said why im not voting for you yet and a few other people have the same idea

also you said you said you were going to claim if it became necessary. some people including me are holding back their votes until you post so this seems like it would be a good time for that

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


So the big thing when I go back and read Cuntman is that I have no idea who they actually think is scum. They've been waffling on every single player in the game, said they'll put votes down, but have never actually committed to anything. Their big list post earlier feels like the epitome of that and I see some contradictions. I'm gonna snip this quote into pieces for better readability.

cuntman.net posted:

so some people have been making lists and i figured i'd do that too both to get my thoughts in order and because it might be helpful to have this information out there. so from least posts to most posts:

lupusater: hard to get a read because they havent really been posting much, and havent been putting much opinions into their posts. hard to tell either way, but i think that means theyd lean towards scum. feel free to call me out on my hypocrisy

"Lupus is probably scum but maybe not." Followed up by no vote for Lupus later and an immediate "Yeah I've been lurking too." Bus?

quote:

cloacamazing: their vote for wologar really reads like a bus to me. its not much more than a gut feeling and their thoughts behind it seem reasonable, but if i had to vote for someone right this second, i'd probably vote for them. i posted some more reasoning for this under the list

I think he meant to say bandwagon, which makes this part of the post make more sense. But still doesn't vote on his suspicions or push it at all. Especially given the next part of post.

quote:

plasticautomaton: i was suspicious of them at first because they werent posting much but then they posted and contributed more than all my posts put together so now i have no idea what to think

caffeinated jerkoff: on one hand, they come across as suspicious to me for the same reason as cloacamazing but probably less so because they called out cloacamazing out for it. i still think their theory that scum wanted us to vote for green wing is strange, but now that we know theres some kind of blocker role, this might be an explanation for that

Okay so you're no longer suspicious of me. Cool. ..Except you still keep saying you're gonna vote for me. And haven't pushed any of the people you've said are suspicious. Huh. And then there's some assorted town reads that I agree about.

quote:

so heres something thats been on my mind: earlier in the day, people were more interested in voting out plastic automaton before the momentum shifted towards wologar. cloacamazing was the one who cast the vote to put wologar ahead and caffeinated jerkoff voted right after that. theres probably plenty of good reasons for that, it was nearing the end of the day and we had to vote for someone, and people were already waffling on plastic automaton, but it still feels off to me. i think at least one of them is scum for that reason. obviously jadecore and i are suspicious for the same reasons but i voted because i didnt want the day to end without a vote and i get the feeling thats also what jadecore did

i could be completely wrong here but i still think we should pay attention to when the momentum turned against wologar

as for who was targeted during the night, i think plastic automaton is one of the least likely options. they already had some heat on them, if the mafia wanted to get rid of them, it would make more sense to try to get them voted out

Though this part is a little confusing. Can I get more of your reasoning on this, cuntman?

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


cuntman.net posted:

thats not true though. i voted for wologar. ive also said why im not voting for you yet and a few other people have the same idea

also you said you said you were going to claim if it became necessary. some people including me are holding back their votes until you post so this seems like it would be a good time for that

Okay I somehow missed the wologar vote despite reading your history like 3 times. I'm goddamned blind.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


NeverHelm posted:

Ok, there's a lot in this post but this sticks out to me. It was not at all obvious that Lupus was going to go down. Several people had retracted their votes, HCT was wavering and even withdrew right after Cloaca made that post. This seems like retroactive justification.

Eh. Lupus had 3 votes at that point and re-reading it feels like that the mood of the thread was "this is going to happen." I don't feel like scum would have stuck their neck out at that point.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


Also I might as well claim at this point and make scum kill me.

My day 2 posting was a double bluff and I indeed do have a role.

I'm the town Doctor. Night 1 I was on NeverHelm, Night 2 I was on GreenWing. So 100% that Greenwing's town.

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.
Also Plastic - cuntman is hardly the only person to be "waffling" as you put it. And a lot of that is directly because of you being so distant in the thread. I'll grant you that cuntman is not the towniest looking player right now, but that just makes me interpret this as you going for what you think is the lowest-hanging fruit to swing a town lunch out of this.

PlasticAutomaton posted:

Also I might as well claim at this point and make scum kill me.

My day 2 posting was a double bluff and I indeed do have a role.

I'm the town Doctor. Night 1 I was on NeverHelm, Night 2 I was on GreenWing. So 100% that Greenwing's town.

Hard doubt. If you were, you're committing suicide by scum saying this. That's not a good town Doctor move, it's just a desperation play from scum. But sure, I guess if it comes down to it we could vote Cloacamazing and see if you survive.

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.
I suspect the only reason you're claiming Doctor and not something else, is that there's strong proof of a protector role and the real one is never going to counterclaim that.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation

NeverHelm posted:

Hard doubt. If you were, you're committing suicide by scum saying this.

Doctor can protect himself, can't he? Which puts another wrench in the works because if we vote someone else and Plastic doesn't get nightkilled that doesn't give us a goddamn thing because that's also consistent with him being scum and lying his pants off.

Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


PlasticAutomaton posted:

Also I might as well claim at this point and make scum kill me.

My day 2 posting was a double bluff and I indeed do have a role.

I'm the town Doctor. Night 1 I was on NeverHelm, Night 2 I was on GreenWing. So 100% that Greenwing's town.

Why NeverHelm night 1, why Green Wing night 2?

Caffeinated Jerkoff
Jul 13, 2014


Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Doctor can protect himself, can't he? Which puts another wrench in the works because if we vote someone else and Plastic doesn't get nightkilled that doesn't give us a goddamn thing because that's also consistent with him being scum and lying his pants off.

doctor can't protect themselves

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
I had another thought. If Plastic is town, he's currently at EX-2. If all the current votes for him are town, that means mafia could drop the hammer on him right now. However, this hasn't happened. There are two possible reasons for this: 1) It would be way too obvious for scum to pile on that quickly and they're just waiting for closer to deadline when it looks more natural, or 2) One of the three currently voting Plastic is scum. Both are plausible.

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.

Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Doctor can protect himself, can't he? Which puts another wrench in the works because if we vote someone else and Plastic doesn't get nightkilled that doesn't give us a goddamn thing because that's also consistent with him being scum and lying his pants off.

That might be possible I guess. But it also means this claim doesn't actually tell us anything. We can't confirm it without voting him out.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:

Why NeverHelm night 1, why Green Wing night 2?

Just protecting my two biggest town reads.

Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil

PlasticAutomaton posted:

I'm starting with the last post in this exchange. This whole argument with Cuntman and CJ felt weird, and I'm still not sure I get the point of it, as it seems to boil down to. "Don't look at the evidence, that's just what scum wants you to do." Which is the most mind-boggling take.

I should probably clarify my thought process here. Votes are the easiest evidence to collect, given that we have a nifty bot that collects and regularly lists them. But this makes it very easy to look only at the votes and not the discussion that lead to them. My idea was that scum might post to cast suspicion on someone and influence others to vote, but not vote, in order to make it seem like they didn't help vote a townie out. Basically, I'm not saying "Don't look at the evidence", I'm saying "Look at all the evidence, not just the one handed to you."

NeverHelm
Aug 9, 2017

Never attribute to malice that post which is adequately explained by a poor sense of humor.

PlasticAutomaton posted:

Just protecting my two biggest town reads.
While I'm flattered you thought of me that way, I'm surprised you (in this hypothetical world where you are Doctor) were confident enough in that N1 to protect me instead of yourself. If you can even do that. And if you can't, then revealing yourself now makes no sense.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


I mean I'm revealing myself now because I'm at -2 and multiple people have said they'd vote me so there is 0 sense in hiding things.

Cloacamazing!
Apr 18, 2018

Too cute to be evil
Seems a bit early at two votes, at this point it kind of looks like we won't eliminate anyone.

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation
Plastic, who do you think is scum among the ones who did vote out LupusAter today?

Bucnasti
Aug 14, 2012

I'll Fetch My Sarcasm Robes
This throws a big wrench at my idea that GW was doctor and protected Plastic on N2.

I'm not sure I buy protecting Green Wing on N2 though. Green Wing seems like one of the least likely targets for Scum as they're overloading everyone with info and causing plenty of confusion.
The problem I'm coming up against now is that I don't have a better explanation for the N2 missed kill. Who else could have been targeted and would have made a likely defense target?

If we off Plastic, we'll know for sure, and that will possibly confirm Green Wing as well.
I'm feel super weird saying it, but I think offing plastic is still the best course of action no matter what side we think they're on.

Bucnasti
Aug 14, 2012

I'll Fetch My Sarcasm Robes

Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Plastic, who do you think is scum among the ones who did vote out LupusAter today?

Yeah.

Assuming Plastic is town, and we vote them out. What would that tell us for Day 4?
If we're going to potentially vote out a valuable townie, we should get as much out of it as possible.

cuntman.net
Mar 1, 2013

so im going to try to explain my train of thought for for day 3

i thought it was strange how suddenly the momentum shifted towards wologar. but ive been thinking about it some more and i dont think this necessarily means anything unless it turns out that plastic is scum, because the scum would jump on directing the vote away from one of their own
im most confident about cloacamazing being scum because her vote on wologar reads like a bandwagon to me (not a bus, i actually went and looked up the terms this time). that, i want to vote out plastic automaton instead because i think we would get more information from him flipping. if he turns out to be scum, that would all but confirm for me that cloacamazing is also scum. if hes town then im less sure what to think but i would at least be suspicious of neverhelm, probably. either way, i think theres more of a path forward with this option


so if we assume that plastic actually is the town doctor, would the scum actually night kill him? i dont know if they want to risk missing out on a night kill again, but they could try to go for someone else and say that plastic not being night killed would make him suspicious. im not sure how much information we would get out of this

im still thinking of voting for plastic

Hyper Crab Tank
Feb 10, 2014

The 16-bit retro-future of crustacean-based transportation

Bucnasti posted:

I'm feel super weird saying it, but I think offing plastic is still the best course of action no matter what side we think they're on.

I'm trying to wrap my head around whether this is true or not.

Scenario 1 - If Plastic is town and we lunch him: Scum are guaranteed to nightkill another town. We're down 2 townies and need fresh ideas tomorrow. This is the worst case scenario that we need to compare every other scenario to.

Scenario 2 - If Plastic is town and we lunch someone else who is also town: Scum can either do the obvious thing and nightkill Plastic, or try to dupe us by leaving him alive and going for someone else and leaving an active town doctor on the field. Regardless, we're down 2 townies and will have to relitigate all this tomorrow if Plastic survives, otherwise we're in the same spot as scenario 1. There's a small chance, however, that they will target someone Plastic is protecting. The odds of this are very small, though.

Scenario 3 - If Plastic is town and we lunch someone else who is scum: The same logic as in scenario 2 applies, but we get a free scum kill. Awesome.

Scenario 4 - If Plastic is scum and we lunch him: Same basic outcome as scenario 3, except whoever is actually the doctor is still around. This is, of course, the best case scenario.

Scenario 5 - If Plastic is scum and we lunch a townie: Probably indistinguishable from scenario 1, plus we have to relitigate Plastic's case tomorrow.

Scenario 6 - If Plastic is scum and we lunch another scum: Same as scenario 3.

I'm starting to believe that the theoretical play here is actually not to lunch Plastic now. Obviously the chances of each of these scenarios being true aren't equal, but the way the outcomes pan out it seems like if we can drum up a good case for who the third scum could be, trying to aim for them instead of Plastic could actually be better?

However, I've also been led to believe that whoever claims doctor first is probably lying. But if he's scum, then he's just waiting for the real doctor to counterclaim, so they should shut their trap.

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PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut


Hyper Crab Tank posted:

Plastic, who do you think is scum among the ones who did vote out LupusAter today?

That is actually a good question as it's most of my town reads on that so unless it's Cloaca and Cuntman I'm going to have to re-evaluate. My current answer is I don't loving know. Process of elimination takes out four for me.

Green Wing is obviously town since well, I protected them and no deaths.

NeverHelm has been top of my town list, despite their eagerness to vote me, and I'm going to keep them there for now.

Jadecore dropped the hammer to kill scum. This does not clear her, as this could have EASILY been a bus for last minute town credibility, but the rest of her posting has been really good.

HCT waffled on the vote repeatedly, but I feel like it was genuine uncertainty. Also expressed suspicion of Lupus for multiple days, so I don't think this was a bus.

So that leaves Bucnasti and CJ. Gun to my head, I'd vote Bucnasti over CJ, because I'm still concerned over the day 1 removal of his mason partner and the bizarre fixation on Green Wing.

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