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The existence of a godfather is impossible to prove unless everyone who's still alive has been investigated. Since that's most likely now impossible (assuming I'll be nightkilled if we don't win here), we can only act on the information we do have. I don't feel good about it, but I think it's the only remaining path forward where town can win. ##vote Jadecore
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Jul 10, 2022 21:46
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| # ? Apr 20, 2024 01:01 |
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I'm just going to say this right now. If Jade is town, then I think CJ is lying and there actually isn't a Cop in this game. That's much more likely than this whole Godfather business.
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Jul 10, 2022 22:08
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Votecount for Day 5  Jadecore (2): NeverHelm, Caffeinated Jerkoff Not Voting (3): Bucnasti, cuntman.net, JadecoreWith 5 alive, it's 3 votes to execute. The current deadline is July 12th, 2022 at 5 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 23 hours.
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Jul 10, 2022 22:15
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If neither of us is convinced about Jadecore, maybe we should ##unvote and consider the other possibility instead? Maybe Bucnasti is a scum Mason, coasting on their soft-confirm day 2 to get an easy win. It would make their simultaneous elimination on Lupus and vote on Plastic absolutely brutal to their own teammates, but maybe that was a gambit to boost their town impression further.
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Jul 10, 2022 22:31
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I feel like if they were, they would have hammered by now. Unless they just missed their chance?
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Jul 10, 2022 22:35
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occams razor says to vote jadecore but i dont want to drop the hammer this early. i just think we should try to get as much out of this day as possible, just in general
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Jul 10, 2022 22:39
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Besides... I find it hard to believe scum would sacrifice both their Watcher and Roleblocker when there was a distinct probability of a Doctor or other protective role, as established by the missed nightkill. I suppose by the logic of this sacrifice plan, it seeming outlandish is the whole point. But it would be a huge risk for scum to do that.
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Jul 10, 2022 22:42
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cuntman.net posted:occams razor says to vote jadecore but i dont want to drop the hammer this early. i just think we should try to get as much out of this day as possible, just in general
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Jul 10, 2022 22:44
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NeverHelm posted:Besides... I find it hard to believe scum would sacrifice both their Watcher and Roleblocker when there was a distinct probability of a Doctor or other protective role, as established by the missed nightkill. I suppose by the logic of this sacrifice plan, it seeming outlandish is the whole point. But it would be a huge risk for scum to do that. I'd argue the conditions set up in day 3 would make the scum team feel like a huge risk is warranted: PlasticAutomaton was the focus of town's vote after wologar flipped as town, and LupusAter was up for daytime elimination after being listed as suspicious in several town members' suspicion lists the previous day.
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Jul 10, 2022 23:49
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I suppose we can't know exactly what the scum were thinking at the time. But that doesn't explain why they killed their mason buddy right away. The missed opportunity of scum manipulating MSRR through Bucnasti is one of many arguments for why a lot of people including myself read Bucnasti as town. Are you suggesting that scum have been planning this strategy of building up Bucnasti as an infiltrator from the outset?
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Jul 11, 2022 00:23
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Yeah not voting yet. There's way too much information that I really want to go back and analyze but my head hurts and I just can't do it right now. Did somebody say there was an easy way to see the final vote counts for each day? I don't see a link to just votebots posts anywhere.
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Jul 11, 2022 00:26
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Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:I'd argue the conditions set up in day 3 would make the scum team feel like a huge risk is warranted: PlasticAutomaton was the focus of town's vote after wologar flipped as town, and LupusAter was up for daytime elimination after being listed as suspicious in several town members' suspicion lists the previous day. ok, but I'm pretty sure if you go back and look at my posts, I was beating the Lupus drum on day 2. I mean sure if the Scum team was capable of sacrificing the Masonry on day 1, as well as Plastic on Day 3 then they would have been capable of setting up the long play on lupus a day earlier, but trying to look at it from the outside that seems pretty far fetched.
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Jul 11, 2022 00:35
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Bucnasti posted:ok, but I'm pretty sure if you go back and look at my posts, I was beating the Lupus drum on day 2. Checking your post history, you're absolutely right. You were pushing for both Plastic and Lupus day 2, before it was possible to know that Lupus was going to end up at risk of being ejected by the lurker rules. That's a pretty definitive refutation of the "what if" scenario that I unvoted to consider, so I'm going to ##vote Jadecore again.
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Jul 11, 2022 01:05
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It would also suggest that Lupus, who had one of the more valuable mafia roles, deliberately failed to meet the lurker threshold two days in a row so that scum could stake it all on an extremely risky plan to ensure Bucnasti is never suspected again. Maybe, and it obviously didn't work since we're talking about it. This is the core problem with scum sacrifice plays, you bring yourself into a disadvantage game-state wise. And the advantage gained, namely goodwill from town, is extremely brittle as we're demonstrating now. If Bucnasti is scum, then they decided to burn down all the progress they might make in the first two days and bringing themselves down to a single scum, or maybe two if we're really unlucky. All to fabricate a narrative that would fall apart as soon as a cop looks at Bucnasti. Does that seem like a reasonable plan of action from a scum team? Is it more reasonable than Bucnasti just being town?
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Jul 11, 2022 01:05
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So no. I don't think Bucnasti as scum is a reasonable thought compared to Jade as scum, who has mostly stayed in the background all game. I'd vote CJ over Bucnasti.
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Jul 11, 2022 01:07
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I honestly wasn't expecting to still be alive this late in the day. Can I... help you guys in any way, or since I don't really have any evidence to provide and I'm the target of question, should I just largely keep quiet for now and let y'all hash it out? I don't want to throw you off.
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Jul 11, 2022 01:08
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Bucnasti posted:Yeah not voting yet. There's way too much information that I really want to go back and analyze but my head hurts and I just can't do it right now. If you stumble upon a votefinder post you can click the ? box in the lower left corner, clicking on the names will take you to the vote to give further context. I drew an arrow in this pic and there's a votefinder post here. Another option although a little more convoluted is go to the OP, look at only Shell's posts and jump to one of the end of day/flip posts, vote tallies are before or after her result posts usually. 
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Jul 11, 2022 01:59
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Usually, the bot does post the votecount on hammer, so you can check it just by filtering by bot posts and looking for the ones with the hammer. However, for some reason, it's failing to do so this game. It's posting votecounts but they are empty, which is the reason I've been doing it instead, but it also seems I've missed one day! Sorry. For clarity: Votecount Day 1 Votecount Day 2 (Jadecore and Cuntman.net vote after this, making it hammer, no unvotes happened before this count and EoD) Votecount for the LupusAter elimination Votecount Day 3 Votecount Day 4 Shellception fucked around with this message at 06:24 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 06:18
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Well, it's been some time now and no hammer is forthcoming. Which leads me to believe that neither cuntman or Bucnasti are scum. So from my perspective, it comes down to either Jade or CJ. But I totally understand why the rest of you would be hesitant to take that risk. Jade's complete lack of defense is interesting. I'd think a scum would at least try to defend themselves, in the slim chance they could turn some minds around. Otherwise they've just given up. And if I discount CJ's Cop claim, then they are not especially likely to be town compared to Jade. So I think I'm going to ##unvote for now, and suggest we revisit the discussion about whether CJ actually is Cop or not.
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Jul 11, 2022 12:18
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Here's the thing that's tripping me up: It seemed to me at least that almost everyone, including both me and Jade, were leaning towards voting CJ next if Cloacamazing turned out to be town. And I had strong doubts about CJ when they first claimed. That was because I was expecting Jade to be Cop. So the lack of a counterclaim was worrying me. But thinking back on it, I might have been letting that expectation bias my thinking a little too much. We have no guarantee that a Cop even exists. And Jade's responses to my prodding actually don't seem too out of character for a townie looking back on them now. If they actually did give up, they might as well just say "I'm scum, GG" and be done with it. But this could just be acting.
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Jul 11, 2022 12:50
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I think it really comes down to if CJ is a cop. And the one sticking point I have on that is the Cloacamazing! vote. I mean I made a huge mistake with MSRR so I'm not one to talk but letting Cloacamazing! get voted out when you've got an investigation saying they're town seems super suspect. At the same time, if CJ was scum, would they have even told us that they had investigated Cloacamazing! at all? It would have been easy enough to say they investigated Me.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:16
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Now, it could be that the reason CJ revealed as cop is because people where leaning towards lunching them. Unfortunately, that doesn't say anything conclusive about their alignment. We really need to look at the evidence. And we have a lot of posts and votes to go through. So let's have a look. Now, Jade brought this up earlier, in response to my assertion that CJ voted both scum: Jadecore posted:That's... true. I think most of us did? Yes. Most of us did, including Jade. The only one who didn't is cuntman, which is the only reason why I'd even briefly consider the Godfather theory. On the Lupus vote, Jade was the last person to vote and CJ second to last. With Plastic, Jade was third and CJ last. Now, If I am right and one of these two are scum, then one of them is voting in self-preservation. But it's hard to say which one. In the aftermath of that vote, CJ voted Cloacamazing, and Jade went for Plastic. I also thought that Plastic was the more obvious target since Lupus had defended him, so this strikes me as a mark against CJ. But not an especially strong one. And it does explain why CJ would check Cloaca next, that's probably what I would do too. The more interesting vote is Day 4. Jade abstained from voting early, despite being most suspicious of Cloacamazing, ostensibly in order to give more time to talk it out. Meanwhile, CJ dropped the hammer on Cloaca (remember that Bucnasti's vote probably wasn't known to them, given how close they were) despite, according to them, having checked them as town. This is... very strange. As I said earlier, I could understand if the Cop was reluctant to reveal Cloacamazing was town at the time. But honestly? I think if they had, we'd just have ignored them and voted anyway, and let the flip confirm if the claim was real or not. That's what I would do, at least. Obviously CJ couldn't have know that, though. Bucnasti posted:I think it really comes down to if CJ is a cop. Which brings me to CJ's Cop results. Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:That... Was not an ideal day. Towards the end of the day, Jadecore asked when a cop should claim. I think the best time may have been yesterday, but the second-best time is today! What can we take from these? If CJ is really Cop, then all their actions should line up with the reports. Day 1: Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:Sorry, I meant to add more to my post there before posting: This sentence stick out to me. Is this CJ hinting at being Cop? Who knows. Could mean anything. Day 2: Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:"what if wologar is a cop" feels like grasping at straws. If they want to claim it, they can do that Day 3: Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:I'm a little conflicted about the whole 'daytime execution vote' situation, but I'll add my vote in to ##eliminate LupusAter. I've been getting a scum read from them since the middle of Day 2, and I don't really believe their reasoning about NeverHelm. So much of this checks out. It's only the Cloacamazing vote that's strange. And to be honest, I could even blame that partially on me. I was really sure about Cloacamazing, and CJ knew I was town. Maybe they just followed my lead? I don't know. I still lean towards going with Jade. Now, I don't think either of the other two are scum so I'm fine with going one more day. But I realize Bucnasti and cuntman are probably sitting there wondering if the two of us might be scum together, and thus voting Jade would mean loss for town. It still could, if CJ and cuntman are scum together. But If that's the case, the kudos to you. You two would deserve the win, because I just can't see it being true given the facts.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:28
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Now, there's one thing that I've been thinking about. And that's how much discussion of various roles has come from CJ. They seem to have an unusual focus on that. And so, I suspected that the cause was the following:NeverHelm posted:Most of the time, this is the case from what I understand. Often, this power is given to a separate "Rolecop", which tends to be (but not always) a Mafia role. NeverHelm posted:Say, CJ. I was wondering something. Earlier, when we were going up against Plastic, you said the following: Caffeinated Jerkoff posted:It could vary by moderator, but that's how the doctor works according to the samafia wiki and mafia discussion thread OP.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:07
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I could be wrong about all of this, of course. So if any of you have arguments for why CJ is scum, now is the time.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:54
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NeverHelm posted:I could be wrong about all of this, of course. So if any of you have arguments for why CJ is scum, now is the time. Looking at CJ's posts, they follow a logical train of thought and are consistent with an inexperienced town cop. This is where I'm at right now in order of suspicion: Jadecore - If CJ is a cop then Jadecore being scum is the most likely scenario. I also don't like Jadecores lack of defense. If I was in their place I would be trying to identify holes in CJs cop story instead of staying out of the way. If on the other hand I was scum and in this situation I would probably try to not say too much and potentially slip up. Cuntman.net - If CJ is a cop and Jadecore is town then we have a godfather, and the most likely culprit would be cuntman. Neverhelm - Again if CJ is a cop and Jadecore is town then Neverhelm could be the godfather, we've all gotten pretty good town reads off of Neverhelm so I put them slightly lower on the list than cuntman Caffeinated Jerkoff - Everything is pointing to CJ being a legit cop right now, unless someone can identify an inconsistency in their story that I haven't seen, I feel them being scum is the least likely situation.
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Jul 11, 2022 17:12
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Yeah, the problem is that I feel like CJ’s results check out. I don’t really have anything to debunk them with other than the fact that I know I’m town and thus it must be someone else. But NeverHelm and Bucnasti would both have to be absolutely insane master planners in order to pull that off, so it must either be Cuntman being godfather or CJ has composed a really convincing lie and there is no cop, right? But it seems really unlikely that there’s just no actual town investigator when that’s iconic to these sort of games. I know I’m not scum. But I also know that from all angles in this situation, I would be the most sensible choice. If CJ is in fact cop, and they investigated me, they could tell you I’m town. If I was alive this night and CJ investigated me, then CJ got flipped, then obviously I would be the prime suspect, but we still have a night protector, right? If CJ investigated me and didn’t get flipped, and told everyone hey, she’s town, then I would be shown to be right. If CJ investigated me but I died in the night, then that’d be an answer there. In any scenario, if you don’t flip me today, then we can win tomorrow, regardless if I’m dead or alive when morning comes, right?
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Jul 11, 2022 18:06
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Ok, I think the best bad option here is Jadecore. If they're town, then we're going to have to hope that the town defensive role can protect us overnight. If CJ is scum, then they deserve the win for perfectly crafting their cop claim. ##vote Jadecore
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Jul 11, 2022 18:40
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We don't necessarily have a town protective role. I never brought it up because it's tenuous, but the mafia could have abstained from their nightkill on night 2 in an attempt to make Plastic look like he got guarded. I think the only reason that didn't work out for them was the daytime execution of LupusAter- I think scum didn't expect that, and Lupus flipping scum after defending Plastic shifted town from "Is Plastic scum?" to "Plastic's definitely scum." Regardless of that, I was planning on investigating whoever I hadn't yet if I survive today's vote. The way I see it, scum don't really have the option to nightkill me- If they do, I'm revealed as cop and they're the only player left who isn't confirmed town. If I'm neither voted nor nightkilled, and we vote out town, scum would have good odds of having the remaining town throw me out by claiming that I must not really be cop. An alternative to that plan that doesn't require trusting my claim: We could vote me out, 100% confirming that I'm town cop and that my information is valid. This one's a bit dangerous, because if there are somehow two scum left town loses after the nightkill.
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Jul 11, 2022 18:41
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The problem is... Nothing about Jade's posts are notably scummy. They are downright towny most of the time. And if I assume that CJ is lying, a number of things they did become scummy, especially that Cloacamazing vote. Well... fine. I don't feel too good about this plan, but it's the best we have. Sorry, Jade. ##vote Jadecore If there are two scum, and we're handing you the game: Well played.
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Jul 11, 2022 18:47
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 Jadecore really stepped in it this time!Votecount for Day 5 With 5 alive, it's 3 votes to execute. The current deadline is July 12th, 2022 at 5 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 3 hours.
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Jul 11, 2022 18:47
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I wish y’all only the best.
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Jul 11, 2022 18:51
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Town was completely lost. After checking everyone up and down, no bad people were found. So who, why, and what? Desperation made them turn to Jadecore. She was an impeccable member of the community, a stylish, elegant lady that was great at getting kids entertained for hours. As they tried to get her, however, smoke bombs went off, covering the whole town square in smoke and making everyone disoriented. After the smoke dissipated, so had Jadecore. A thorough search of her house, however, turned out nothing. She had nothing she could be caught for, and obviously didn't have anything to do with the disappearances. Jadecore, TOWN-aligned Vanilla, has left town Day 5. Unless... Unless? That same day a note was found, scribbled in the ladies' bathroom of the local train station, in red lipstick. It read: quote:Well played. Now the real chase begins! Say, which is the only man-made construction that can be seen from space? Jadecore, MAFIA-aligned Godfather, has left town Day 5. -----  quote:You are Carmen Sandiego! Legendary thief, and master of evasion, you were made famous by heists of such importance as the steal of the Mason-Dixon line. You command the power of V.I.L.E to obfuscate your every step. You will make sure absolutely nobody can get to you and your fellow Mafia players... by any means necessary.  ----- Town has won the game! Well played, everyone!
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Jul 11, 2022 19:13
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What do you know. After all that talk of Godfathers, this is an appropriate end. Nice work, everyone! Oh by the way: Town Doctor here. The nightkill I stopped N2 was on myself, actually.
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Jul 11, 2022 19:18
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lol
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Jul 11, 2022 19:19
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Jul 11, 2022 19:21
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Good Game y'all. Thank you, mods.
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Jul 11, 2022 19:21
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I very much enjoyed being absolutely wrong about everything, repeatedly (even when I was certain I'd spotted the doctor...I thought it was Jadecore)
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Jul 11, 2022 19:31
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NeverHelm, Town Doctor! quote:You are Phoenix Wright! Your abilities as a lawyer are only rivalled by your faith in your defendants. You will cross a burning bridge (figuratively, of course!) to save those you trust. And this time, you will be putting everything in to protect those you know are innocent!  ----- Caffeinated Jerkoff, Town Cop!  quote:You are Missile! And you are a Good Boy. You are great at many things! Especially barking! You are great at barking. And solving mysteries. And barking! Not even death can stop you. You will find the bad guys, whatever it takes!!  ----- Bucnasti, Town Mason!  quote:You are Dirk the Daring!. Master of adventuring, and the knight with the quickest reflexes in the world, you would do anything for Princess Daphne. Even if it leads to your death. Several times. What is time, anyway?  ----- cuntman.net, the only surviving Town Vanilla!  quote:You are a Malboro! Whoever first pitched plant-keeping as a peaceful, rewarding hobby had never met you. Just your breath will do horrible things to anyone foolish enough to try and fight you. Why do they keep trying, anyway? Humans truly are stupid. 
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Jul 11, 2022 19:35
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 This was a lot of fun. Thanks to the moderators for putting this together.
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Jul 11, 2022 19:37
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| # ? Apr 20, 2024 01:01 |
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And that's all! Want to thank everyone for playing, this was a lot of fun. A surprising good amount of good theories and a great level of play in general! Hope to see you again around sometime! Want to thank the co-mods for their great help! You guys are a treat to have around. And Maer, the mod-behind-the-mod, for always being there to plug all my mistakes and offer round-the-clock assistance and counselling. You all rule, thanks again!
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Jul 11, 2022 19:40
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