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Powerful Two-Hander
Mar 10, 2004

Mods please change my name to "Tooter Skeleton" TIA.


bob dobbs is dead posted:

as i said. the fact that the treasuries have been continually and faithfully paid did not save them one whit

black scholes is options, no options involved. black scholes specifically also assumes constant interest rate lol

gently caress not black scholes I forgot which pricing thing it was

treasury security isn't relevant to liquidity. Yeah those bonds are gonna pay back 100 at maturity, but right now they're not worth 100 and if that's what you need to pay your depositors when they *all* want to take money out you can't be like "hold on guys, in another 10 years we'll be fine!"

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bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
yes. thats the steamroller portion of what banking is

this already is a contagion from that other stupider crypto bank. the question is, will there be contagion to the half dozen other banks with incredible ratios of basically uninsured corp accounts. none have that 97% ratio, but there are plenty with like 70%

teen phone cutie
Jun 18, 2012

last year i rewrote something awful from scratch because i hate myself
whats it mean when your company posts in slack that they're "aware of the SVB situation and currently working with the bank to avoid company disruptions?"

Archduke Frantz Fanon
Sep 7, 2004

teen phone cutie posted:

whats it mean when your company posts in slack that they're "aware of the SVB situation and currently working with the bank to avoid company disruptions?"

you may have been owned

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
you have a material chance they dont make payroll

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually
https://twitter.com/AnonymousLeftie/status/1634307745036791810

teen phone cutie
Jun 18, 2012

last year i rewrote something awful from scratch because i hate myself

Archduke Frantz Fanon posted:

you may have been owned

dam.

welp here's hoping my 10+ year old, not-profitable company with a board didn't put all their money into one bank :cheers:

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually
lmao whoops

https://twitter.com/crupicrupicrupi/status/1634321772592939009

Powerful Two-Hander
Mar 10, 2004

Mods please change my name to "Tooter Skeleton" TIA.


bob dobbs is dead posted:

yes. thats the steamroller portion of what banking is

this already is a contagion from that other stupider crypto bank. the question is, will there be contagion to the half dozen other banks with incredible ratios of basically uninsured corp accounts. none have that 97% ratio, but there are plenty with like 70%

oh right sorry I thought you meant like contagion everywhere like 2008 not like "contagion to banks 100% tied to crypto and startups", gently caress those guys

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome
all these babies like "I lived through the Great Recession of 2008" like motherfucker things were better by 2010, we need someone who lived through fuckin stagflation

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
i meant the banks and brokerages i mentioned which fulfill those criteria, like boa and schwab

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Powerful Two-Hander posted:

no not quite. bond prices are weird in that the price is inverse to the rate they pay Vs uhhhhh the risk free return? I think? With that being "I put my money in the fed at the base interest rate" so you may have a load of nice us treasuries paying 1% that were super compared to your risk free rate of 0.1%, but now the risk free rate (or the rate on new us bonds) is 4% if you try to offload them they're going to be discounted to reflect the larger coupons you're passing up

since there's a lot of bond chat here today, I'm gonna quote something I edited into the BFC long-term thread OP last year. it covers bond pricing, interest rates, yields, etc:

BFC posted:

Help, I don't understand bonds!
A lot of people don't. Here are some basics on bonds and some math on understanding bond yield and coupons. Here's the Treasury Direct site discussing savings bonds, including EE and I-Bonds. Bonds have different risks than stocks, but risks nonetheless. Some of those risks, such as interest rate risk, are discussed here and here. You may hear of people managing some of this risk by creating "ladders" with savings bonds (in 2022, I-Bonds), CDs, Treasurys, or bond funds. Read up on ladders at these pages:
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/bond-ladder-strategy
https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/online-trading/bond-strategies
https://www.schwab.com/fixed-income/bond-ladders
https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/bond-etfs/build-better-bond-ladders

we're also having some fun with this over the the BFC stocks thread but I really enjoy the yospos SV slant on all this

Beeftweeter
Jun 28, 2005

a medium-format picture of beeftweeter staring silently at the camera, a quizzical expression on his face
e: beaten

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


also I think just knowing what interest-rate risk was before 2023 qualifies me to be the CRO at SIVB's replacement

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1634306931870375936

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

rotor posted:

all these babies like "I lived through the Great Recession of 2008" like motherfucker things were better by 2010, we need someone who lived through fuckin stagflation

I can't wait for the

*counts*

fifth 'once in a lifetime' giant recession/crash since I've been legally considered an adult

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
i do have to mention wrt that putative contagion method that you can buy deposit insurance third party like but the 250k comes w the account per entity

pseudorandom name
May 6, 2007

rotor posted:

all these babies like "I lived through the Great Recession of 2008" like motherfucker things were better by 2010, we need someone who lived through fuckin stagflation

are you volunteering?

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
looking at stock market halts, the equity peeps guess at who will be next is regional retail banks

e: my god, every single regional bank has a sweaty "we're good for your money" thing on its home page

bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Mar 11, 2023

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

pseudorandom name posted:

are you volunteering?

man its fuckin friday night what do you think

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

bob dobbs is dead posted:

e: my god, every single regional bank has a sweaty "we're good for your money" thing on its home page

confirmed lol

Archduke Frantz Fanon
Sep 7, 2004

PNC remains unshaken and barely touched


once again you should never doubt pittsburgh

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
look at this

https://www.firstrepublic.com/

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


yeah i posted some tickers a while ago in BFC but it’s basically a handful of regionals, plus Charles Schwab. SCHW has a terrible balance sheet for the same reasons as SIVB but much better ability to fund its daily ops

Archduke Frantz Fanon
Sep 7, 2004

all the ohio banks i once used have no warning, but citizens bank does

your money is safely buried in the parking lot of CBP next to where the fanatic keeps his victims

edit: oh wait that's just a security warning about scam emails

i guess it's the west coast regionals that are freaking out

Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

is this bitcoin finally crashing the global economy like i've been worried it would for years now

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
its rising interest rates

Shame Boy
Mar 2, 2010

but

bob dobbs is dead posted:

this already is a contagion from that other stupider crypto bank.

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

thats an on the ball marketing team

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
yeah, but the crypto bank didnt get hosed by the usual crypto method of embezzlement, it was another run. 1880s style financial fuckup not a 2021 style fuckup

Powerful Two-Hander
Mar 10, 2004

Mods please change my name to "Tooter Skeleton" TIA.


solid lmao if this is actually all peter thiels fault

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

rotor posted:

thats an on the ball marketing team

thats a bank staffed by peeps who are acutely aware of what banking is and will wear their most formal clothes and have outrageously large piles of physical cash come tomorrow or monday or whenever they next open

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome
yep

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
e: lol

TDepressionEarl
Oct 28, 2010


I'm trying to win the World Cup
but I'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps playing Argentina onside


my don't worry about the bank run shirt has people asking a lot of questions resolved by heeding the kindly advice printed on my shirt

TDepressionEarl
Oct 28, 2010


I'm trying to win the World Cup
but I'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps playing Argentina onside


i smell free toaster

Powerful Two-Hander
Mar 10, 2004

Mods please change my name to "Tooter Skeleton" TIA.


I imagine working for the FDIC must be just one long series of picking up the phone going "they did what? Again?" And putting your head in your hands as you think about how you're gonna have to spend your weekend finding a buyer for 100 bllion dollars worth of idiot VC deposits

MononcQc
May 29, 2007

https://twitter.com/LaurenSHirsch/status/1634315816106618880?s=20

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
they do a whole lotta nothing for a decade or two and then everything goes to poo poo. then another decade or two of nothing. just like any other highly correlated insurance job, like hurricane or earthquake insurance

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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Powerful Two-Hander posted:

I imagine working for the FDIC must be just one long series of picking up the phone going "they did what? Again?" And putting your head in your hands as you think about how you're gonna have to spend your weekend finding a buyer for 100 bllion dollars worth of idiot VC deposits

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1634330899171901440

even better, in this case if you go to full tweet and read the part cut off by SA preview, it was Silicon Valley Bank themselves that lobbied hard for the regulatory rollback to let them be stupid and ultimately cause all this

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