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Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Don't take financial advice from me. Except you should have bought TBT back in Jan or feb

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Oscar Wild posted:

It will be .5 today and maybe a signal to .75 in future.

My opinion
Welp

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Inner Light
Jan 2, 2020



Drop me like a rock baby

Hit like a sack of bricks

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuFSv2bLa8

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
RIP my zestimate

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Probably best you didn't pay the original asking price

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Does the Dow Jones usually rebound right after a higher fed hike announcement?
The last time they raised it this much I was in gestation

vvv(I always looked at the dow first for stock health growing up)

Grouchio fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Jun 15, 2022

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


Who trades DOW?

Inner Light
Jan 2, 2020



Hadlock posted:

Probably best you didn't pay the original asking price

You're saying it's better that I paid over asking, right??

Grouchio posted:

Does the Dow Jones usually rebound right after a higher fed hike announcement?
The last time they raised it this much I was in gestation

vvv(I always looked at the dow first for stock health growing up)

Yeah I interpret it as old fashioned these days, I'm a SPY guy and by extension, SPXL, SPXS, /ES.

SPY is the most traded ETF in the world. Whoops wrong about this, some QQQ stuff appears to have the most share volume, SPY is 3rd in volume right now but still #1 for AUM.

Inner Light fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jun 15, 2022

Baddog
May 12, 2001
https://twitter.com/hackcelerity/status/1537146574517714944

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
Nope. Sitting on my hands, not buying this fakeass dead cat

DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.

Grouchio posted:

Does the Dow Jones usually rebound right after a higher fed hike announcement?
The last time they raised it this much I was in gestation

vvv(I always looked at the dow first for stock health growing up)

Its probably going to implode tomorrow. It dead cat bounced like this last time too.

Then again who knows! Maybe markets like rate hikes now!

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

it just means our economy is just so unbelievably strong, it just can't be restrained, that's good news right

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004


Number go up

drk
Jan 16, 2005

FistEnergy posted:

Nope. Sitting on my hands, not buying this fakeass dead cat

:hmmyes:

my best purchase of the year is going to end up being like a 3% tbill tho, so dont listen to me i am also still buying intc

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

Its probably going to implode tomorrow. It dead cat bounced like this last time too.

drat you and your accurate prediction.

John F Bennett
Jan 30, 2013

I always wear my wedding ring. It's my trademark.

Can I interest you in some market crash

Landsknecht
Oct 27, 2009
I hope this person is trolling, nobody can be so unfunny and dumb

John F Bennett posted:

Can I interest you in some market crash

thank god for SQQQ

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Lol I close on a house in 6 days

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Hadlock posted:



Updated chart. Added "date market hit this guess on the way down" column :f5:

edit: added pixaal's "comedy" S&P 2750 -> SPY $275 guess from last week

Big Jesus takes the lead

Next stop 349 :buddy:

tpink
Feb 18, 2013

Melman

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

Its probably going to implode tomorrow. It dead cat bounced like this last time too.

Excellent prediction!

Baddog
May 12, 2001
While tech and the bigger names are more recent, the broader market has been making GBS threads the bed for almost 8 months now. This is definitely getting old.

I suppose measuring strictly from peak to trough 2001 could be said to have taken 2+ years... but a good deal of that time was horizontal.


But on the other hand, we aren't even in the drat recession yet! Well maybe we are, given all this hysteria.....

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The economy stubbornly refusing to contract is why we're in an inflationary market in the first place. We've got nearly full employment and it's really hard to have a recession while everyone's working and spending like crazy.

We really need a new word to describe a transitory economic situation that is hosed up for everyone, but is not, technically, shrinking. People colloquially use "recession" but they're technically wrong.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Leperflesh posted:

The economy stubbornly refusing to contract is why we're in an inflationary market in the first place. We've got nearly full employment and it's really hard to have a recession while everyone's working and spending like crazy.

We really need a new word to describe a transitory economic situation that is hosed up for everyone, but is not, technically, shrinking. People colloquially use "recession" but they're technically wrong.
And this isn't stagflation either. Perhaps this is an economic melt-up?

numberoneposter
Feb 19, 2014

How much do I cum? The answer might surprise you!

wtf

pseudanonymous
Aug 30, 2008

When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

Grouchio posted:

And this isn't stagflation either. Perhaps this is an economic melt-up?

I think the technical economic term is "end of days".

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

This has been bouncing around in the back of my head, trying to put this into words

A billionaire can only eat so much steak, use so much electricity, oil etc, like 100x the average person. The billionaire to everyone else ratio is way higher than 1:100. Most of their wealth is tied up in a handful of assets and investments, and stock

If you transfer that wealth from billionaires to average people, they're not all collectively going to buy a 9% stake in twitter or Berkshire Hathaway, they're going to buy steak, a new car, go on vacation, new designer purse etc etc

Pushing interest rates up helps to murder jobs which keeps the Poor poor and stop buying so much stuff and reduces inflation (in theory)

If we redistributed billionaire wealth ( I think the emoji is :guillotine: in c-spam) wouldn't we immediately need to send interest rates up 10%+ to prevent supply side inflation from driving prices to the moon. If everyone can suddenly afford a 4000sq ft house with six bedrooms, the price is going to skyrocket

TL;DR if the poor were no longer poor, prices would skyrocket because there's not enough carry capacity on the planet to provide that kind of lifestyle for everyone

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

Leperflesh posted:

The economy stubbornly refusing to contract is why we're in an inflationary market in the first place. We've got nearly full employment and it's really hard to have a recession while everyone's working and spending like crazy.

We really need a new word to describe a transitory economic situation that is hosed up for everyone, but is not, technically, shrinking. People colloquially use "recession" but they're technically wrong.

The supply chain needs to un-gently caress itself (real economic terms) to bring down prices for goods. There also needs to be more diverse competition for dollars to bring inflation down at full employment. I don't know how that gets done.

It really shows how bad the fed managed the 8ish years of full employment when they could have raised interest rates pre covid.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Hadlock posted:

This has been bouncing around in the back of my head, trying to put this into words

A billionaire can only eat so much steak, use so much electricity, oil etc, like 100x the average person. The billionaire to everyone else ratio is way higher than 1:100. Most of their wealth is tied up in a handful of assets and investments, and stock

If you transfer that wealth from billionaires to average people, they're not all collectively going to buy a 9% stake in twitter or Berkshire Hathaway, they're going to buy steak, a new car, go on vacation, new designer purse etc etc

Pushing interest rates up helps to murder jobs which keeps the Poor poor and stop buying so much stuff and reduces inflation (in theory)

If we redistributed billionaire wealth ( I think the emoji is :guillotine: in c-spam) wouldn't we immediately need to send interest rates up 10%+ to prevent supply side inflation from driving prices to the moon. If everyone can suddenly afford a 4000sq ft house with six bedrooms, the price is going to skyrocket

TL;DR if the poor were no longer poor, prices would skyrocket because there's not enough carry capacity on the planet to provide that kind of lifestyle for everyone

Yea basically, capitalism needs a group to endlessly suffer for the machinery to work properly.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Hadlock posted:

TL;DR if the poor were no longer poor, prices would skyrocket because there's not enough carry capacity on the planet to provide that kind of lifestyle for everyone

There's no prospect of instantaneously redistributing wealth. No individual government can really do it, it'd be a global effort that would take years of wrangling just to decide to do, and most of the billionaires would resort to extreme measures to avoid having their wealth confiscated. That wealth mostly isn't just cash money, either; would you redistribute jeff bezos' shares of amazon, or sell them off to convert them to cash? If you do the latter, the stock price tanks when you're only 2% into your sell and now the wealth is actually destroyed (it was never fully real lol).

How do you decide who gets how much? That'll take time too. Surely you're not going to do a single lump sum distribution. A lot of people all over the world don't even have bank accounts. Who does the distributing, and how do you keep them from stealing what they're supposed to be distributing?

And yeah you bet your rear end if everyone suddenly had a hundred thousand dollars and tried to spend it to meet their immediate needs, the inflation spike would destroy the value of all that money immediately.

Basically, the hypothetical you've proposed is both impossible and theoretically disastrous for the reasons you've already recognized, so we can't and wouldn't ever do that. An actual move towards less wealth disparity that involves redistribution would take place gradually over time, would not be even across all people in the world, and would therefore give economies time to adjust.

And, you're right that the world absolutely cannot support American standard levels of consumption if everyone did it. (It can't support the current levels of consumption, and most people in the world aren't able to consume like us, at least not yet.) A high-quality sustainable equitable lifestyle would have to involve much more money spent on services than on goods, and those services would have to be provided in a sustainable way.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Hadlock posted:

This has been bouncing around in the back of my head, trying to put this into words

A billionaire can only eat so much steak, use so much electricity, oil etc, like 100x the average person. The billionaire to everyone else ratio is way higher than 1:100. Most of their wealth is tied up in a handful of assets and investments, and stock

If you transfer that wealth from billionaires to average people, they're not all collectively going to buy a 9% stake in twitter or Berkshire Hathaway, they're going to buy steak, a new car, go on vacation, new designer purse etc etc

Yeah, the term in econ is Marginal Propensity to Consume. And true, MPCpoor > MPCrich

quote:

TL;DR if the poor were no longer poor, prices would skyrocket because there's not enough carry capacity on the planet to provide that kind of lifestyle for everyone

Be careful because this line of thinking takes you to some pretty dark places.

The good news is that so far throughout history your TLDR statement hasn't really been true. And if, today, it means that some guy in West Texas is paying more to drive his F-250 on his 100 mile daily commute because he's now competing for gasoline with an Indian who can afford a moped for the first time in his life, fine.

Anyway, to go on topic... today's the first day all year I actually felt like just hitting this cool button that IBKR gives you:


So I'm curious how close to capitulation others are.

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
If you would have put all your money in $Goon this morning you might be breaking even on GOON$.

Deviant
Sep 26, 2003

i've forgotten all of your names.


Elephanthead posted:

If you would have put all your money in $Goon this morning you might be breaking even on GOON$.

i got mine at 23 cents! i'm up!

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


Leperflesh posted:

There's no prospect of instantaneously redistributing wealth. No individual government can really do it, it'd be a global effort that would take years of wrangling just to decide to do, and most of the billionaires would resort to extreme measures to avoid having their wealth confiscated.

Buy out and socialize/subsidize housing (sweeping Air BnB off the face of the earth, for starters). The poors wouldn't change their fortunes overnight but could save a little bit more and not have stress pains over constantly ballooning rent.

The rent is too drat high. Lower the rent.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Space Fish posted:

Buy out and socialize/subsidize housing (sweeping Air BnB off the face of the earth, for starters). The poors wouldn't change their fortunes overnight but could save a little bit more and not have stress pains over constantly ballooning rent.

The rent is too drat high. Lower the rent.

Well yeah there's a thousand ways "we" - society, the government, whatever - could drastically improve the lives of poor people, at relatively minor cost to the rich. Many of them are quite feasible, and I would expect most of them wouldn't become drivers of runaway inflation even!

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

We all said "well this is loving crazy and totally unsustainable" in June 2020, what's amazing is that it took so long.

Landsknecht
Oct 27, 2009
I hope this person is trolling, nobody can be so unfunny and dumb

Ola posted:

We all said "well this is loving crazy and totally unsustainable" in June 2020, what's amazing is that it took so long.

In retrospect you could've made some good moves back in Feb with available info - as long as WTI was at 100+ and everything was getting more expensive, JPOW and co said they'd be raising rates. SQQQ has been a money printing machine all year, along with crpyto inverse products.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1537545843452137472

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


dall-e prompt:

"joker laughing at the stock market while it burns"

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bort
Mar 13, 2003

Is JORK otc? Wanna get in on the ground floor.

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