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It's had an impact on their strength, but they don't have any serious competitors within Lebanon, especially in the South, so I don't think it'll affect much.
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Jul 20, 2014 23:18
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Rogue0071 posted:Requesting help from Israel to directly fight IS would be a good way to give IS massively more recruits. I think if they got to that point it'd be a multi-state alliance of emergency status. Neighboring states aren't going to just stand aside and let ISIS through because they already have seen what happens when one outlives their utility, and it isn't like they have any interest in allowing caliphate-style control of entire regions as IS passes through, since that would be the end result. I don't think they're going to immediately go to Netanyahu and ask for a battalion of Merkavas as soon as they see ISIS come across their border.
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Jul 20, 2014 23:22
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tsa posted:While the subject is up, are there any estimates or good articles on how weakened (if at all) Hezbollah is from actions in Syria with respect to southern Lebanon? I know they didn't even need to call up reserves in 06, so it would seem that it might not hurt them that much but I haven't seen much written about it. I think their credibility is affected more than their military strength. Before this they could fairly credibility retain the title of "self defense force" against Israel. But backing Assad has surely made them many enemies.
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Jul 20, 2014 23:27
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Volkerball posted:I haven't read too much about ISIS in Iraq from the end of the Iraq War until Mosul. If anyone knows a good article that talks about the history of the situation in Fallujah, Ramadi, Baghdad suburbs, etc, feel free to post it. Very short version: ISIS has been involved in Iraq for a while. The core of the group's leadership is mostly Iraqis who fought the Americans during the occupation, so they always had an eye on the homeland. In 2013 they began to increase their number attacks, focusing on breaking arrested militants out of military jails. The most noteworthy raid was on Abu Gharib. Most of these escaped militants joined ISIS. The broke hundreds out there and killed dozens of guards. In early 2014 they drove the Iraqi Army out of Fallujah. The Iraqi Army tried to counterattack, but failed to retake Fallujah. Since then they settled into lobbing shells into Fallujah and bombing the town. This was an early sign that the Iraqi armed forces were in bad shape, but no one acted to change anything. The ISIS slowly began to exert control over a lot of Anbar. Then the recent offensive caused the Iraqi Army around Mosul to crumble away, and as a result the vast majority of Sunni Iraq is out of government hands. New Division fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Jul 20, 2014 |
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Jul 20, 2014 23:47
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Count Roland posted:I think their credibility is affected more than their military strength. Before this they could fairly credibility retain the title of "self defense force" against Israel. But backing Assad has surely made them many enemies. As a local resident, they've lost a lot of their political clout I'd say. Not nearly as unanimously followed as before.
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Jul 20, 2014 23:47
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Hollismason posted:So Isis is crushing the other rebel groups against Bashar because..?? Rebel group are just gangs, they want control of land and people to obtain tribute to sustain themselves. This is why you choose to fight rather than do backbreaking work and pray for a good harvest; loot. Other rebels are easier than the government.
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Jul 20, 2014 23:48
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HGH posted:As a local resident, they've lost a lot of their political clout I'd say. Not nearly as unanimously followed as before. Can you elaborate? Are they getting more poo poo from other Shia like Amal than usual? Or just strictly more sectarian divide ramped up to 11?
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Jul 21, 2014 05:36
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http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/2014/07/20/Is-Iraq-s-Kurdish-region-outside-of-ISIS-calculus-.html A senior US diplomat says that the forces arrayed against the Iraqi government are 10% ISIS, 20% Baathists, and 70% Sunni tribes. The article also states that the Peshmerga's alliance with several Sunni tribes inside Kirkuk and Kurdistan provides a powerful mediating force between them and ISIS.
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Jul 21, 2014 06:27
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Whats the low-down on these baathist fellows? What do they want, a return of the Saddam era?
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Jul 21, 2014 06:31
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http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/07/18/233786/islamic-state-overwhelms-iraqi.html That Iraqi base near Tikrit that fell to ISIS? The Iraqi Army lost hundreds of guys there alongside 8 helicopters, with many being captured, paraded through Tikrit, then executed. It was a mix of Iraqi Special Forces and Iraqi Army allegedly totaling ~700 men along with ~150 Shiite militia auxiliaries. That's nearly a thousand guys. Funny thing is that the article claims that the loss of those 8 helicopters is "crippling" but not the loss of nearly a thousand men. goatse.cx posted:Whats the low-down on these baathist fellows? What do they want, a return of the Saddam era? Something like that. Secular Arab nationalist regime, although they are probably a bit more Islamist nowadays than Saddam would have cared for. EDIT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wam11xpHeAo Ajil al-Ahli Hospital in Tikrit destroyed by air strikes. Sergg fucked around with this message at 06:37 on Jul 21, 2014 |
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Jul 21, 2014 06:32
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I think McClatchy was premature, since activists reported ongoing fighting there yesterday and WSJ is now saying government forces are in full control. It's basically Baiji refinery all over, but it remains apparent either way that ISIS hit the base pretty ferociously and inflicted heavy losses.
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Jul 21, 2014 06:58
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What's going on in Afghanistan? I haven't seen anything related to it in the news in a long time.
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Jul 21, 2014 07:00
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The Good Professor posted:What's going on in Afghanistan? I haven't seen anything related to it in the news in a long time. There's going to be an election soon and the two sides are squabbling over stuff like monitors and making sure it's fair. It's cooled down now in terms of the election and things will likely stay quiet till the election itself.
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Jul 21, 2014 07:09
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The Good Professor posted:What's going on in Afghanistan? I haven't seen anything related to it in the news in a long time. The horrors of Afghanistan are kinda horror-lite when in comparison to what ISIS has been up to for the last 2 months so they've fallen out of the spotlight.
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Jul 21, 2014 07:59
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blowfish posted:
Even beyond the obvious ethical violations, was there any logical reason for them to do that to someone who willingly sent themselves as an envoy?
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Jul 21, 2014 08:24
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I've open the beta of my new site Bellingcat up for free access for the next 48 hours, here's some Syria pieces I've done Evidence of a New Chemical Attack in Syria Volcanoes in Damascus August 21st – The Rebels Did It! New Heavy Short Range Rockets Deployed By Pro-Syrian Government Forces Identifying Government Positions During The August 21st Sarin Attacks I've also got a bunch of podcasts, as well as case studies and guides for budding open source investigators. More info on Bellingcat is on the Kickstarter page.
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Jul 21, 2014 08:50
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ChaosSamusX posted:Even beyond the obvious ethical violations, was there any logical reason for them to do that to someone who willingly sent themselves as an envoy? Well, ISIS seems to have gone all in on the terror tactics approach. Horribly torturing an envoy in cold blood could therefore be construed as sending a message that negotiation isn't going to cut it and that surrender, flight or fighting to the death are the only options when facing ISIS. ISIS would be banking on people choosing the first two options in this case, and discounting the initial pushback in January it seems to have worked out for them.
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Jul 21, 2014 08:51
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Shadoer posted:There's going to be an election soon and the two sides are squabbling over stuff like monitors and making sure it's fair. It's cooled down now in terms of the election and things will likely stay quiet till the election itself. Er, the election already happened (in fact, they went to a runoff) and Abdullah Abdullah is alleging (again) fraud, which is probably true.
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Jul 21, 2014 10:43
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ThirdPartyView posted:Er, the election already happened (in fact, they went to a runoff) and Abdullah Abdullah is alleging (again) fraud, which is probably true. I thought they were still tallying the votes and going through a bunch of procedural stuff?
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Jul 21, 2014 10:58
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Shadoer posted:I thought they were still tallying the votes and going through a bunch of procedural stuff? Abdullah Abdullah threatened to refuse to not recognize the initial vote (which had Ghani 'magically' go up 20% of the vote from the initial vote, winning the runoff) with a bunch of warlords backing him. Kerry basically begged him to accept a third party recount (since the head of the electoral commission was accused of being in Ghani's pocket and resigned shortly thereafter), which he agreed to.
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Jul 21, 2014 11:02
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ThirdPartyView posted:Abdullah Abdullah threatened to refuse to not recognize the initial vote (which had Ghani 'magically' go up 20% of the vote from the initial vote, winning the runoff) with a bunch of warlords backing him. Kerry basically begged him to accept a third party recount (since the head of the electoral commission was accused of being in Ghani's pocket and resigned shortly thereafter), which he agreed to. Ok I'm then kind of behind, I guess then that recount is still happening.
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Jul 21, 2014 11:03
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MothraAttack posted:I think McClatchy was premature, since activists reported ongoing fighting there yesterday and WSJ is now saying government forces are in full control. It's basically Baiji refinery all over, but it remains apparent either way that ISIS hit the base pretty ferociously and inflicted heavy losses. I can't find anything about Speicher Air Base in Google news or Twitter other than that it was totally overrun and the defenders massacred.
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Jul 21, 2014 11:17
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Elijah Magnier and some others doubted the McClatchy account when it appeared, and here is the WSJ's take. Of course they're gambling on the reliability of their government sources in a war where both sides have made some dubious claims. I don't know that either side can prove it one way or another at the moment.
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Jul 21, 2014 11:41
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Can journalists use drones to collect footage in these contested areas? It can't be that expensive to get a video camera aloft and give it some GPS coordinates these days.
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Jul 21, 2014 11:52
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:Can journalists use drones to collect footage in these contested areas? It can't be that expensive to get a video camera aloft and give it some GPS coordinates these days. I don't know about you, but if I were a fighter in a combat zone and saw a drone that I knew didn't belong to my side, I'd loving shoot it.
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Jul 21, 2014 12:23
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Blue Footed Booby posted:I don't know about you, but if I were a fighter in a combat zone and saw a drone that I knew didn't belong to my side, I'd loving shoot it. Strapping a gopro to an entry-level model airplane isn't that expensive.
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Jul 21, 2014 12:34
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Holy poo poo just caught up on this thread and I am so loving glad I live in the West. As selfish as that sounds I've never checked my goddamn privilege more. Sorry if I missed it in all the links and horrific torture pictures posted, but who the gently caress is actually fighting for Isis? Who are these blokes? Disaffected youths who were like 10-14 in 2003?
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Jul 21, 2014 12:41
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Lord Twisted posted:Holy poo poo just caught up on this thread and I am so loving glad I live in the West. As selfish as that sounds I've never checked my goddamn privilege more. A lot of people are fighting ISIS, a few groups effectively. The Iraqi army is not one of them, since it has morphed into largely a sectarian militia. The best bet is for ISIS to lose the support of the sunnis in Iraq for whom the choice between Maliki's Shi'ite government and Sunni fundamentalists wasn't too difficult, but rifts have been growing since ISIS rolled into town and set up a beheading booth. ISIS is made up of nihilists and sociopaths. This is not hyperbole. Al-Qaeda told them to tone it down a notch and they refused.
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Jul 21, 2014 12:54
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Bunch of nihilist jihadists huh? New breed I guess.Blue Footed Booby posted:I don't know about you, but if I were a fighter in a combat zone and saw a drone that I knew didn't belong to my side, I'd loving shoot it. Which gives the journalist something interesting to show on the evening news/youtube. re: Afghanistan. There was a huge bombing in Kabul last week. A few days later Karzai's convoy was ambushed somewhere in the east of the country, killing some peeps. General violence is pretty high, with I believe violence having increased from recent years. And yeah the mediation/re-count/re-election whatever is still ongoing. This is the second time Abdullah Abdullah has been on the receiving end of a (probably fraudulent) loss.
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Jul 21, 2014 12:59
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Count Roland posted:Bunch of nihilist jihadists huh? New breed I guess. That's how Dexter Filkins put it.
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Jul 21, 2014 13:01
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Brown Moses posted:More info on Bellingcat is on the Kickstarter page.
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Jul 21, 2014 13:16
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Kafka Esq. posted:I funded you. Will you be doing anything on unstructured data analysis using non-open source tools in the future? I've got two larger projects in the works at the moment, one is to use Meedan's Checkdesk verification tool on the site, dedicating part of it to crowdsourcing verification of social media content, etc, which is already proving useful in Ukraine and Gaza this week. Next we're trying to put together a project with the OCCRP and Hacks/Hackers to use open source databases to track corrupted businesses in Europe. We had a short trial of this, and it was very effective, so we're hoping we can get funding to do this full time. There's a brief write up on it here, with some sexy gifs like this 
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Jul 21, 2014 13:29
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Volkerball posted:
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Jul 21, 2014 17:52
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kalstrams posted:Cross-post from Eastern Europe thread. Are there any non-government parties in Syria that have this within their reach? There's a bunch of MANPADs floating around, but Syrian helicopters are generally safe, so I doubt any jihadist or opposition group has the capability to take down on of those flights without getting something new from their sponsors. However, the regime has anti-aircraft weapons that have shot down a Turkish jet for one. I don't believe they've shot down any transport planes at all, but it still seems a bit reckless, especially in the immediate aftermath of MH17, to be flying commercial flights over warzones.
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Jul 21, 2014 17:57
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Volkerball posted:There's a bunch of MANPADs floating around, but Syrian helicopters are generally safe, so I doubt any jihadist or opposition group has the capability to take down on of those flights without getting something new from their sponsors. However, the regime has anti-aircraft weapons that have shot down a Turkish jet for one. I don't believe they've shot down any transport planes at all, but it still seems a bit reckless, especially in the immediate aftermath of MH17, to be flying commercial flights over warzones. Poke around on flight aware for a bit, theres a ton of flights going through Syria and Iraq right now.
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Jul 21, 2014 18:07
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kalstrams posted:Cross-post from Eastern Europe thread. Are there any non-government parties in Syria that have this within their reach? Maybe. The FSA has/had a 9K33 Osa that showed up a few times. Depending on the version that could be anywhere from a 5000-12000m engagement ceiling. But to be fair each time it appears it's chucking missiles at low flying jets in the process of bombing poo poo or barrel-bombing helicopters. Standard air-defense type things rather than taking potshots at "whatever that is flying way up there". Warbadger fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Jul 21, 2014 |
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Jul 21, 2014 18:21
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Anybody here who follows the developments on the front lines closely know exactly what's going on in Damascus? I don't keep up with maps or individual battles very well, but it seems that the opposition is making more gains there than at any point throughout the rest of the war. Fighting had always been contained to the suburbs before, correct?
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Jul 21, 2014 20:56
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 ISIS wants to circumcise women now.
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Jul 21, 2014 22:13
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Xandu posted:
Oh come the gently caress on.
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Jul 21, 2014 22:15
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Hahahah they are comically evil.
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