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Bait and Swatch posted:There are as many leaders at the various levels of ISIS that are not former Baathist as the ones that are. That being said, that is a far cry from any type of unity between these two very divergent elements. alot of the former baathests in ISIS are dead. either by the kurds or by ISIS cleaning house. i believe there is a spiegle article on it.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:46
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Jack2142 posted:I honestly think at this point the best solution would be to partition the country, I don't know why people are so opposed to that idea... Yugoslavia splintered in the 90's after another lovely and bloody civil war and we didn't make one of the requirements for our intervention "Sorry Yugoslavia we know your president Slobodan Milošević is a murderous dick, but ya'll need to stay unified lolololol". Sure Yugoslavia had better choices in ~western ideals~ to back, but I think a partition while not perfect would end the fighting sooner, which would bring back the refugees many of whom are more "moderate" alleviating pressure on Europe and other states and maybe pushing the population majority away from "religious right nutjobs". Yeah, that would be the best outcome but is it likely to be supported by Assad, Russia and Iran? I can't see those two agreeing to weaken a key ally in the region.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:47
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I don't think characterising ISIS as a separatist movement is really correct, if anything they are irredentists. I don't see how a partition is applicable.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:52
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Jack2142 posted:Seriously though I don't think an agreement can be reached by the factions until Assad is dead, especially after he broke the last ceasefire agreement a couple years ago. I think best case scenario is Russia or someone offering him asylum and giving him an exit from Syria although after all this time I think he might not take it anymore. Russia isn't any more interested in Assad giving up power than Assad is. All of their support has gone through Assad, or been done to empower regime strategies, so keeping the regime in power is the beginning and the end of their interest in Syria. Iran seems less invested in Assad in particular. Most of their support has been to militias under Iranian control, some 100,000+ fighters. While they aren't chained to Assad, their fight is currently the same one, ensuring non-Iranian friendly Sunni's don't have influence within the government, and I don't see them supporting any sort of transition, because the removal of Assad would weaken the regime. Even if the regime fell, Iranian-backed militias would keep fighting and occupying territory. As far as partition, there's been polls, and they indicate there's not much interest in it. There's more interest in Iraq, but still not close to majority support. The Sunni areas have no reason to believe that Assad would respect their sovereignty, plus they naturally want Assad to face justice. The regime wants total control of Syria, and they clearly won't abandon that goal until they're militarily beaten. There's just no political solution at them moment.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:52
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Are we also glossing over the deaths of tens of thousands of Shiites in the post-gulf war and 1999 uprisings? Not to mention the forced relocation, property seizures and draining of marshlands that signified the ongoing retaliation that occurred throughout the ninties? Life wasn't absolute poo poo for Sunnis under Saddam, but they also received government handouts to maintain Sunni support, could actually get jobs and weren't at risk of being randomly disappeared by the security services.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:53
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Volkerball posted:Russia isn't any more interested in Assad giving up power than Assad is. All of their support has gone through Assad, or been done to empower regime strategies, so keeping the regime in power is the beginning and the end of their interest in Syria. Iran seems less invested in Assad in particular. Most of their support has been to militias under Iranian control, some 100,000+ fighters. While they aren't chained to Assad, their fight is currently the same one, ensuring non-Iranian friendly Sunni's don't have influence within the government, and I don't see them supporting any sort of transition, because the removal of Assad would weaken the regime. Even if the regime fell, Iranian-backed militias would keep fighting and occupying territory. Do you think that the deal that Obama will offer Putin is to help us annihilate Daesh and we'll let you do whatever you can to keep Syria? I have a sinking feeling that Obama might've been bitten by a rabid Kissinger and decided that that is the best path forward.
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Nov 16, 2015 18:59
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Zeroisanumber posted:Do you think that the deal that Obama will offer Putin is to help us annihilate Daesh and we'll let you do whatever you can to keep Syria? I have a sinking feeling that Obama might've been bitten by a rabid Kissinger and decided that that is the best path forward. I'm no expert but I can't see any other path forward. I think the best the west can hope for from these talks is provision for some kind of economic sanction against Syria or Assad personally if he doesn't stop bombing civilians.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:04
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Still no conclusion on what caused Sinai plane crash It’s too early to make conclusions about the reasons for the crash of the Russian A321 jet over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula in late October, as all possible reasons are still being considered by the investigators, Putin said. “We know about all the possible scenarios, all of the scenarios are being considered. The final conclusion can only be made after the implementation and completion of the inspection,” he stressed. "If there was an explosion, the traces of explosives would have remained on the liner’s cover and on the belongings of the passengers. It’s inevitable. And we have enough equipment and skilled, world class experts, capable of finding those traces. Only then would it be possible to speak about the reasons for this tragedy," the president added. With 224 people dying in the crash, Putin said that "it's a huge emotional pain for all of us; for all Russian people, no matter what the cause of the crash was."
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Nov 16, 2015 19:05
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tatankatonk posted:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/03/us-led-air-strikes-on-isis-targets-killed-more-than-450-civilians-report MothraAttack posted:Considering IS has massacred several times that in a single day, I think global consensus is that it's an unfortunate but acceptable cost. At least 459 from the 118 strikes investigated by Airwars- if we extrapolate from that rate, we can expect the approximately 5,700 coalition strikes to have caused 20,723 civilian deaths. I hope that's not true. The number is probably much lower if the 118 strikes chosen by Airwars were the ones they believed most likely to result in civilian deaths. edit: AlexanderCA posted:450 civilian victims in 5700 strikes is still 450 dead people but I imagine you can't get that percentage down much further. It's certainly lower than I would have expected. quote:However, over six months, Airwars examined 118 air strikes and identified 52 that Woods said “warrant urgent investigation”. Airwars believes there are strong indications of civilian deaths, according to multiple, reliable sources, from these attacks. Dilkington fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 19:06
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Zeroisanumber posted:Do you think that the deal that Obama will offer Putin is to help us annihilate Daesh and we'll let you do whatever you can to keep Syria? I have a sinking feeling that Obama might've been bitten by a rabid Kissinger and decided that that is the best path forward. I doubt it. I think you might see some other countries advocate for that strategy, but I don't think the US will be among them. Everyone is well aware of Assad's role in empowering ISIS, and has said repeatedly that the underlying conditions have to be resolved in order for groups like ISIS to stop thriving. Obama has spoken personally about how Russian strikes are having a counter-productive effect in the fight against jihadists. I think what we're going to get from the Obama administration for the remainder of his term is sort of token nods towards diplomacy to look pro-active towards finding a solution in Syria, as well as continuing to target ISIS to look pro-active towards destroying them. These discussions between countries who's only common goal is wanting to be seen as working for peace. Getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to the table to call each other faggots in person. That kind of thing. The only sort of x factor I see is the potential of the year plus of strikes against ISIS plus the SDF growth resulting in ISIS being unable to maintain control of Raqqa, which would be a pretty major development. I think the US is probably banking heaviest on that strategy panning out from a military perspective, but I don't think they're going to have the will to make any major changes to what they're doing until potentially 2017.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:12
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Jagchosis posted:After a year of fighting with little progress and forces loyal to ISIS appearing and conquering some territory, the two governments of Libya have been mostly in a cease fire and are supposedly working towards a peace agreement, though the one negotiated by the UN appears to have no legitimacy with either faction. Fighting still occurs in Libya but most of it has been between the Tobruk government and Islamist militias, particularly in Benghazi, with peripheral fighting going on in the Tuareg's homeland regions. It's lawless in many places but better than Syria, the death toll of the second civil war is a little over 4k versus the well north of a quarter million that have died in Syria. Even adjusting for population its a much lower intensity conflict. Speaking of the negotiations, apparently my hunch that the UN envoy in charge of the peace process there, is in fact, an unadulterated douche of the highest order seems to have been confirmed by leaked UAE emails quote:Other leaked emails, first reported in The Guardian newspaper and provided to The Times, show that while Mr. Léon was drafting the agreement, the Emiratis were also in the process of hiring Mr. Léon as the $50,000-a-month director general of the Emirates Diplomatic Academy, creating a potential conflict of interest. Mr. Léon received a formal offer in June and negotiated throughout the summer over the details of his $96,000-a-year housing allowance. quote:In the emails, the Emirati diplomats frankly acknowledge their government was shipping arms to its Libyan allies in violation of the United Nations embargo — a policy they say is overseen at the “head of state level” — and they strategize about hiding the shipments from a United Nations monitoring panel. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/world/middleeast/leaked-emirati-emails-could-threaten-peace-talks-in-libya.html?ref=topics Basically, early articles I've posted have been about how Leon, confounding anyone involved with the peace process, been drafting a Libyan peace treaty pretty much by himself that is laughably disconnected to the facts on the ground and the parties actually fighting in their civil war. Apparently this was all so he could burnish his resume enough to get hired by one of the parties most responsible for stoking the violence there. Whatta douche.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:17
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I just wanna say something that's bothering me, why we can't get a thread dedicated to something like the biggest world event in the last year because someone talked about religion is beyond me. Isn't this supposed to be a forum? forum noun fo·rum \ˈfȯr-əm\ : a meeting at which a subject can be discussed Then we wonder why it's slowly dying.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:19
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orange sky posted:I just wanna say something that's bothering me, why we can't get a thread dedicated to something like the biggest world event in the last year because someone talked about religion is beyond me. Isn't this supposed to be a forum? Sounds like something to take to QCS
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Nov 16, 2015 19:20
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Volkerball posted:I doubt it. I think you might see some other countries advocate for that strategy, but I don't think the US will be among them. Everyone is well aware of Assad's role in empowering ISIS, and has said repeatedly that the underlying conditions have to be resolved in order for groups like ISIS to stop thriving. Obama has spoken personally about how Russian strikes are having a counter-productive effect in the fight against jihadists. Oh really? quote:Mr. Obama also “noted the importance of Russia’s military efforts in Syria” focusing on Islamic State, a White House official said. The tone is a change from the U.S. position that Russia’s airstrikes in Syria are “counterproductive” because they have focused broadly on any opponents of the Assad regime, rather than narrowly on Islamic State. Lol if anyone trusts anything coming out of the mouths of either the US or Russia in this entire loving thing and that either side isn't just spewing whatever rhetoric fits to push their agenda best. Both have their interests in the area, but ultimately neither of them would really want ISIS to come out on top (America not, because dear friend Israel probably wouldn't like having that on their borders one bit, and Russia because Assad's been their ally for a fair while since, ever). And since neither is willing to just escalate to open war with one another over this, when public impetus is to stomp on ISIS atm, it's actually very likely that some sort of compromise will be worked out.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:33
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Shageletic posted:Whatta douche. At what point does "Conflict of interests" become corruption? Especially when this scumbag is supposed to be representing the loving UN. Not that he'd be the first politician bought in this kind of way, seems to be a common career path. Can't really see anything happening besides maybe finding the stink of politics even less appealing. orange sky posted:I just wanna say something that's bothering me, why we can't get a thread dedicated to something like the biggest world event in the last year because someone talked about religion is beyond me. Isn't this supposed to be a forum? There's always the GBS thread! (it is the worst loving thing ever)
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Nov 16, 2015 19:35
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Zeroisanumber posted:Do you think that the deal that Obama will offer Putin is to help us annihilate Daesh and we'll let you do whatever you can to keep Syria? I have a sinking feeling that Obama might've been bitten by a rabid Kissinger and decided that that is the best path forward. i dont think so, Assad has done to much to be let off that easy and realistically, if the west suddenly starts backing him, alot of those friendly rebels are going star hating us, and maybe worse join ISIS which could cause even more problems down the road.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:37
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Mackers posted:At what point does "Conflict of interests" become corruption? Especially when this scumbag is supposed to be representing the loving UN. Not that he'd be the first politician bought in this kind of way, seems to be a common career path. Can't really see anything happening besides maybe finding the stink of politics even less appealing. Europe really needs an FBI type entity that gives no fucks about who it takes in on corruption charges.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:38
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One question (which I'm asking here because all the alternatives are horrible) - where did the Paris attackers' weapons likely come from? They had some very serious and very illegal hardware.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:43
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Zeroisanumber posted:Do you think that the deal that Obama will offer Putin is to help us annihilate Daesh and we'll let you do whatever you can to keep Syria? I have a sinking feeling that Obama might've been bitten by a rabid Kissinger and decided that that is the best path forward. Here's the deal I'd offer Putin: get the gently caress out of Ukraine and you can then stick your dick as deep into Syria as you want.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:44
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Darth Walrus posted:One question (which I'm asking here because all the alternatives are horrible) - where did the Paris attackers' weapons likely come from? They had some very serious and very illegal hardware. Black markets is the best answer. The worst one is ISIS specific smugglers. Or TURKEY
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Nov 16, 2015 19:45
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orange sky posted:I just wanna say something that's bothering me, why we can't get a thread dedicated to something like the biggest world event in the last year because someone talked about religion is beyond me. Isn't this supposed to be a forum? As far as I know no mod or admin forbade a separate thread, it's just no one created one? Edit: wait, gently caress, just saw it. 
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Nov 16, 2015 19:45
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Mackers posted:At what point does "Conflict of interests" become corruption? Especially when this scumbag is supposed to be representing the loving UN. Not that he'd be the first politician bought in this kind of way, seems to be a common career path. Can't really see anything happening besides maybe finding the stink of politics even less appealing. quote:He had asked both sides to propose names for a national-unity government, but politicians in the west demurred, demanding changes to the plan. So on October 8th Mr León proposed a new government anyway. His choice for prime minister, Faiez al-Serraj, a member of the eastern parliament from Tripoli, appears to not have been anyone’s choice. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21672773-proposed-unity-government-has-united-countrys-warring-sides-criticism-un-tries He's been unilaterally acting in Libya, making a sham of the whole entire process. He then hurried it along unnaturally before parachuting to a cushy job with one of its combatants. This is incredibly unusual and somewhat monstrous. I don't know what might happen but I would hope something would, if only to sustain Libya's peace process and the UN's validy as an impartial broker.
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Nov 16, 2015 19:46
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We sent another ammo shipment to http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sends-second-delivery-of-ammunition-to-syrian-forces-1447631589 quote:WASHINGTON—The U.S. military has completed its second delivery of ammunition to the newly formed Syrian Arab Coalition, a sign of the strengthening relationship between the U.S. and a group of Arab forces that coordinates with Kurdish fighters battling Islamic State in Syria.   "We're not arming the Kurds, we're arming the 'Syrian Arab Coalition'." "Oh, you're telling me the Syrian Arab Coalition shared everything they got equally between themselves and their Kurdish allies? Oh well, these things happen. Maybe they won't share the ammo with their Kurdish allies the next time we send an ammo shipment."This is totally not the flimsiest excuse for the US arming the Syrian Kurds, no-siree, where did you get that idea?
fade5 fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 19:47
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Dilkington posted:No one but God. They cite SOHR on their figures for a lot of these attacks, and SOHR claimed 162 civilians had been killed in Syria up to June. Keep in mind a shitload of these strikes happened in Kobani, where civilians had mostly fled, and the US has tapered off of strikes in population centers like Raqqa, and focused more on bombing ISIS positions and convoys in the desert. 162 might be a bit lowball, but all figures for Syria except this one is somewhere in that neighborhood. And there's no way 19,000 civilians have been killed in Iraq without so much as a peep from independent media. That's over 40 civilians killed per day. I'd put my money on the total civilian casualty count being less than 1,000 probably by a couple hundred. That is kind of an acceptable number given the results of the halt on ISIS advance, the stagnation in Kobani, and now the losses to the SDF. It just sucks that it's still not addressing ISIS further south where they are making gains in the midst of the advance on the opposition by the regime coalition, and so those deaths aren't really spent in the effort to defeat ISIS, just to degrade them. CrazyLoon posted:Oh really? If you're trying to get some sort of deal done that you can point to, you're not going to go into a negotiation talking about how counter-productive the other party is and demanding they cease their activities. That doesn't mean they suddenly decided the right conclusion is somehow now wrong. What do you imagine a compromise to look like anyways? The US saying "OK cool, we're not mad about you targeting civil activists in Syria anymore, so lets shake hands on camera?" Do you think Russia is going to suddenly focus entirely on ISIS with impending US elections featuring Republican candidates claiming Putin is trying to build an empire and must be opposed, while there's still plenty of infrastructure within Syria that's opposed to ISIS and Assad, which presents a long term threat to the regime? Of course not. The Russian strategy is not dependent on what the US chooses to do. These are still just token nods to diplomacy, and we'll be back debating what happens next when the next President takes office with essentially the same scenario we're facing now. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 19:48
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fade5 posted:We sent another ammo shipment to The US is gaslighting the poo poo out of Erdogan and it's the greatest thing.
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Nov 16, 2015 20:19
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Yes I agree a partition is not likely. In regards to removing Assad I think if he goes and Russia replaces him with some other Alawite puppet they might be able to get support to unify the country somewhat. I just feel the Assad name is too tarnished to unify the county, even if his replacement is essentially the same ala Egypt. In regards to partitioning i thought russia other than prestige really cares about their naval base in syria i would assume a Latakia or Alawite state on the coast would let them keep that. Jack2142 fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 20:33
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Darth Walrus posted:One question (which I'm asking here because all the alternatives are horrible) - where did the Paris attackers' weapons likely come from? They had some very serious and very illegal hardware. Belgium, it seems. Also, the EU now believes all attackers identified so far to be EU citizens, according to chief diplomat Mogherini. https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/666339266847481856/photo/1
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Nov 16, 2015 20:47
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So whos guess is it that Assads successor will be even more of a ruthless dictator who executes evetyone who isnt his sect
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Nov 16, 2015 21:05
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LeoMarr posted:So whos guess is it that Assads successor will be even more of a ruthless dictator who executes evetyone who isnt his sect This is different from the status quo, how?
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Nov 16, 2015 21:06
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ISIS puts on tin foil hats to hide from jets
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Nov 16, 2015 22:10
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Wouldn't the glare do the opposite effect?
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Nov 16, 2015 22:39
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Camouflage is better than nothing, but only just better than nothing.
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Nov 16, 2015 22:41
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Orange Devil posted:Turns out our entire economy was kept afloat by banks being allowed to launder money for these guys. Welp. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI5hrcwU7Dk
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Nov 16, 2015 22:46
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Does it actually work, or is it just uh  Oh yeah, official announcement of Raqqa Revolutionaries' Brigade's/Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa's new batch of fighters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS9Vtje0hWo They might want to change that salute, the Kurdish HXP has the same problem. On a meta note, my forums account was massively upgraded, and I probably have this thread to thank for that, so thanks a lot. fade5 fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Nov 16, 2015 |
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Nov 16, 2015 22:48
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fade5 posted:Does it actually work, or is it just uh If they're being targeted by IR weapons the theory has some merit since those thermal blankets on the inside of that camo would make them blend into the surroundings a bit more.
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Nov 16, 2015 23:03
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fade5 posted:Does it actually work, or is it just uh That uh... Is quite a salute.
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Nov 16, 2015 23:05
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fade5 posted:Does it actually work, or is it just uh .
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Nov 16, 2015 23:10
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What a great and very nationalistic salute.
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Nov 16, 2015 23:12
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Somebody in the CIA is madly scrambling to get that video taken down.
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Nov 16, 2015 23:21
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I haven't watched the video but I'm assuming the salute is the good old Bellamy salute
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Nov 16, 2015 23:23
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