uh This poll is closed. |
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embiid |
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41 | 32.28% |
wiggins |
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86 | 67.72% |
Total: | 127 votes |
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mynameisjohn posted:what on Earth are you talking about? it's reasonable for the top 5 teams to think that they'll get a top 5 nba player? that's not reasonable. Sorry, I didn't explain this well. I meant that each of the teams picking in the top 5 should have a reasonable expectation that there guy will be a top 5 player at some point. Thats reasonabe for most drafts. If the 5th guy picked in a draft doesnt at least have a reasonable expectation of being really good, then either you suck at drafting or its a shallow draft. All of those guys are going to be very talented and have a high upside (including Embiid). They obviously won't all pan out. One of them will be a bust and never be more than a serviceable rotation player, 2 of them will be all stars at some point, and the other 2 will be ok/good but not great. We just don't know which of them they'll be yet.
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# ? May 30, 2023 16:23 |
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Do you just not know how many 5 is? It's a really small number. It is only 4 more than 1.
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MourningView posted:Do you just not know how many 5 is? It's a really small number. It is only 4 more than 1. Do you not know the difference between "reasonable" and "guaranteed"?
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The B_36 posted:Sorry, I didn't explain this well. I meant that each of the teams picking in the top 5 should have a reasonable expectation that there guy will be a top 5 player at some point. Thats reasonabe for most drafts. If the 5th guy picked in a draft doesnt at least have a reasonable expectation of being really good, then either you suck at drafting or its a shallow draft. All of those guys are going to be very talented and have a high upside (including Embiid). They obviously won't all pan out. One of them will be a bust and never be more than a serviceable rotation player, 2 of them will be all stars at some point, and the other 2 will be ok/good but not great. We just don't know which of them they'll be yet. and even within the parameters of your loving idiotic argument you suggest that there is that a 2/5 chance of a player being an all-star (a top 24 player), yet that teams should have a reasonable expectation that they're getting a top 5 player.
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mynameisjohn posted:you just couldn't be more wrong and there is an overwhelming body of evidence sitting in front of you that completely contradicts what you are saying. Maybe 2 in 5 is overly optimistic, but a simple "top 24" player isnt right either. I said an all star at some point, not every year. I'm pretty sure that every draft has had at least a couple all stars from it. Seriously, calm down. 90% of NBA players come thru the draft, and probably 99% of the players who see more than 100 minutes of court time. Since 24 is 6.6% of the approx 360 players on a 12 man NBA roster, and there are 60 players picked each year in the draft, and 99% of NBA players that will ever have a chance of making an all star team were drafted at some point, it stands to reason that approx 4 players from each draft class will make an all star team. Maybe I'm being stupid in thinking that a large majority of them will be picked in the top 5? Tho I did also say one of the later picks would turn out to be really good! So I think I covered my bases there too. Does your overwhelming body of evidence include "numbers"? Edit: maybe reasonable is the problem people are having here? Not expected. Like, if a player develops close to the max of his potential, he'll become a top 5 player. That's reasonable to hope for, but not expected. If he works on his jumper, if he can learn defense (Carmelo), if he could shoot a free throw (Dwight), if he could figure out how to use his athleticism effectively and stop being an idiot (Demarcus Cousins) etc. he could be one of the best players in the league. The B_36 fucked around with this message at 07:13 on May 27, 2014 |
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Probably Magic posted:Didn't Dirk start playing basketball when he was 15?
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The B_36 posted:Edit: maybe reasonable is the problem people are having here? Not expected. Like, if a player develops close to the max of his potential, he'll become a top 5 player. That's reasonable to hope for, but not expected. If he works on his jumper, if he can learn defense (Carmelo), if he could shoot a free throw (Dwight), if he could figure out how to use his athleticism effectively and stop being an idiot (Demarcus Cousins) etc. he could be one of the best players in the league. I think your problem is that you have an unreasonably inflated expectation of what a top 5 pick should be. I mean, I'm pretty casual about following the NBA (hurray for being a Cavs fan who works a schedule that doesn't let him actually watch basketball very often) and even I can see that a top 5 pick, or even a top 3 doesn't have a reasonable expectation of being an all star, let alone a top 5 player. Hell, look at the last 15 #2 overall picks. 2013 Victor Oladipo 2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2011 Derrick Williams 2010 Evan Turner 2009 Hasheem Thabeet 2008 Michael Beasley 2007 Kevin Durant 2006 LaMarcus Aldridge 2005 Marvin Williams 2004 Emeka Okafor 2003 Darko Milicic 2002 Jay Williams 2001 Tyson Chandler 2000 Stromile Swift 1999 Steve Francis That's a pretty dire list considering the teams who made these picks had their choice of literally all but one player in each draft. I don't see how you can look at that and think that the next three teams to pick have a reasonable expectation for anything but a servicable starter.
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There's never been anything unreasonable about saying "Embiid shows flashes, increasingly regular flashes where looks like Olajuwon" without having to guarantee that he is in fact Olajuwon? It just sounds like you're confusing Ceiling for actual expectations. Larry Sanders would be my guess for the current guy in the NBA who got the latest start in basketball which doesn't make for a great comparison oh well.
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#2 pick only is a bit deceptive since there are all-stars after the first 3 picks, and I don't know if it's because the drop-off between #1 and #2 is that bad or they overthink on the pick and get the wrong 2nd best player.
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Tae posted:#2 pick only is a bit deceptive since there are all-stars after the first 3 picks, and I don't know if it's because the drop-off between #1 and #2 is that bad or they overthink on the pick and get the wrong 2nd best player. Well, how about the #3 overall pick? 2013 Otto Porter 2012 Bradley Beal 2011 Enes Kanter 2010 Derrick Favors 2009 James Harden 2008 O.J. Mayo 2007 Al Horford 2006 Adam Morrison 2005 Deron Williams 2004 Ben Gordon 2003 Carmelo Anthony 2002 Mike Dunleavy 2001 Pau Gasol 2000 Darius Miles 1999 Baron Davis The #4 and 5 picks aren't producing all stars every year either. The argument was that it was reasonable that teams picking in the top 5 to expect that pick to turn into an all star and that's pretty clearly not the case (nevermind the top 5 player thing). If NBA teams were a lot better at evaluating/developing players then yeah, that'd be about right, but they're not. Your chances of landing a great player are better the higher you pick, but outside of the #1 pick it's more that you hope they're an all star but I wouldn't say that's a reasonable expectation.
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One of the local Hornet/Pelican sites does a series called Value of a Draft Pick about this exact subject! Here is the article from the Anthony Davis draft: http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/2012/06/22/the-value-of-a-draft-pick-and-the-hornets-picks/ Basically, the number 1 pick is amazing but 2-5 only have ~33% chance of being a star. Kibner fucked around with this message at 13:55 on May 27, 2014 |
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The B_36 posted:Does your overwhelming body of evidence include "numbers"? What proportion of top 5 picks have gone on to be top 5 players? Or, if we want to go for your more backpedally argument, how many top 5 players have been on more than one all-star team? Edit: The link just posted tells the story. big boi fucked around with this message at 14:00 on May 27, 2014 |
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Crazy Larry posted:Well, how about the #3 overall pick? I don't know what that list of all-stars (I think Favors and Beal will make it eventually which would be more than half the list) is supposed to prove? Parker has a great chance of being good because he's going third? Miles was a picked out of highschool I think, Morrison was Morrison and Porter isn't looking so hot but it almost sounds like you're saying busts are more common than all-stars which isn't supported by that list with 3 < (6 or 8)?
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Here is the important part of the article so you don't have to click on it:quote:To determine the value of a pick, I assigned an overall career ranking based on PER and a bastardized Wages of Wins Win Score and applied it to all the players who have been taken in the draft since 1984. Â I also cut off my evaluation of players after 2008 since since it is hard to judge a career trajectory in three seasons. Finally I jammed those numbers into a simple Grade ranking. Below is what each grade means, and I give an example player:
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I don't even know what the gently caress you guys are arguing about anymore but I hate it and I blame player comps
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The B_36 posted:I'm bringing up the stats because I think they're important. He was playing against and WITH top level NCAA talent and produced mediocre numbers at a high efficiency. Great. So have a ton of "toolsy" guys with mind blowing measurables who teams used high picks on. They all had scouting tapes where they blew around stationary assistant coaches and dunked a lot. They all could hit a completely unguarded 15 foot jump shot and make it look smooth. They all had an eleven foot wingspan and a 63" vertical leap. They all looked really good in limited usage on their college team. GM's lose their jobs by falling in love with these type of guys. 11.2/8.1 and 2.6 blocks per game is insane for only playing 23 minutes a game. Especially when most teams we played tried to double every post touch he got. You're also comparing Embiid to a bunch of guys who could jump out of the gym but had no game beyond that. Embiid isn't an interesting prospect just because of measurables - it's because he's got an insanely varied and fluid post game. People call him raw, but he has the best back to the basket game in this draft by a wide margin. He isn't raw in the same way that Andre Drummond was, and I don't think he's the same caliber of explosive athlete that Drummond is. Embiid is raw in that he's still learning how to fit into offensive and defensive schemes, but when you get the ball in his hands with his back to the basket, then he is far more developed than your average big man prospect.
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Did someone say he'd "literally be Olajuwon?" I don't remember reading that. He just moves like him and there are similarities. There are plenty of differences, Hakeem improved dramatically between his freshman and sophomore year and Embiid hasn't gotten there yet. Hakeem was 6'9 and beastly strong so they don't even directly compare physically. Instead of people who never watched Embiid conjuring up opinions out of reading box scores why not let professional scouts who know what they're talking about sway your opinion? I mean if you're going to ignore the mountain of evidence right in front of your face countering your arguments you might as well ignore the pros too.quote:Scout 1: If healthy, I’m taking him no. 1 and it’s not even close.
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Yeah, one of the things that was lost in time is that Hakeem was never 7 feet tall, they just listed him as that to make Ralph Sampson feel better.
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In 1974 Bill Walton went Top 5 and is ranked 65 All Time! In 1984 Hakeem, Jordan and Barkley went in the Top 5 and are ranked 2, 3 and 17 All Time! In 1994 Jason Kidd, Grant Hill were drafted Top 5 and are ranked 26 and 68 All Time! In 2004, Dwight Howard was drafted Top 5 and ranks 86 All Time! Clearly by the rules of the ending in '4 Draft Guide Lines, there will be at least one Top 100 All Time player in this draft.
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District Selectman posted:In 1974 Bill Walton went Top 5 and is ranked 65 All Time! And that player will be Marcus Smart.
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Another thing needs to be said here, those saying that Embiid going number one over Wiggins is crazy are ignoring Wiggins' problems. This scout sums it up better than me...quote:Scout 3: In general, interesting kid. In fairness to him he played in a very restricted system at Kansas. All interchangeable parts with designated spots, a lot of structure. When he got the ball, there wasn’t a lot of room to create. He didn’t force things, dealt with it well, but sometimes it hurt his rep. Not anywhere near ready, mentally, to take things over, which is unfair to say at this stage. Game isn’t to the level of his athleticism. Humble, coachable, a positive kid, all good things. edit: this scout saying Wiggins should ignore shooting threes is being idiotic btw so take this opinion with a grain of salt. He just has work to do.
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quote:He is great in transition, but he has no ball skills. All right hand, no idea what to do without the ball. He struggles with confidence. The draftexpress breakdown shows these weaknesses really well.
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POWER FORWARDS SO POWERFUL Julius Randle (Fr., Kentucky) ![]() PF, 6'9, 250 lbs. Pros: The Carlos Boozer of making faces, excellent scorer, already has go-to post moves, excellent rebounder, explosive, skilled at getting to the line, plays within himself, strong Cons: Can't play a lick of defense. Has no arms. Might be short for position or maybe he's not who knows what's a power forward anyways? Upside could be limited. Weak passer. Player comp that is a reflection of playstyle and not of overall potential: Doug McDermott (Sr., Creighton) ![]() PF, 6'8, 220 lbs. Pros: Unbelievably efficient, fantastic shooter, not totally unathletic, crafty scorer Cons: Stuck between the 3 and 4. Can't defend. Will likely never be more than a third option. Pretty much only a scorer. Player comp that is a reflection of playstyle and not of overall potential: Shorter Dirk Nowitzki I guess? I swear it takes me like three times as long to think of a player comp as it does to write the rest of the stupid profile Aaron Gordon (Fr., Arizona) ![]() PF/SF, 6'9, 220 lbs. Pros: Crazy athletic, good at dunking, shows excellent defensive potential, seems to have given up on playing SF full-time, fairly good passer, finishes well at the rim Cons: Cannot create his own shot. Offensive potential is very unclear at this point. 5.1% body fat means that he is not suited to living in an arctic environment. Player comp that is a reflection of playstyle and not of overall potential: Hakim Warrick T.J. Warren (Ju., NC State) ![]() PF/SF, 6'8, 220 lbs. Pros: Fantastic scorer, great finisher, versatile midrange game, good in transition, excellent assortment of floaters and runners Cons: Can't create offense for others. Range stops at about 18 feet. Awful mechanics on jumper. Player comp that is a reflection of playstyle and not of overall potential: Alex English with a busted jumper Declan MacManus fucked around with this message at 18:36 on May 27, 2014 |
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kiimo posted:Another thing needs to be said here, those saying that Embiid going number one over Wiggins is crazy are ignoring Wiggins' problems. This scout sums it up better than me... Most scouts are retarded on an individual level and drafting is done with an aggregate of scout opinions as well as the general manager and scouting director's own observations.
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Julius Randle as Josh Smith seems to totally ingore that Josh Smith has at times been really really good on defense, step your dumb comparison game up, son.
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I'd argue that Josh Smith has been really good on defense for most of his career but on the other hand I couldn't think of any guys who took all of their shots really close to the basket who weren't +defenders or Jeremy Evans E: Oh wait I thought of one
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Jefferson is probably the obvious one although not perfect for a lot of reasons. I like the Blair one though.
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Are the Z-Bo comparisons just because he's a baby-faced doughboy?
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morestuff posted:Are the Z-Bo comparisons just because he's a baby-faced doughboy? More or less, yeah. They're also the same height, roughly.
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Declan, I appreciate the comparisons. ![]()
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andrew wiggins is a one armed t-mac with the vertical of vince carter
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Could you compare prospects to different types of food instead? Randle is clearly a happy meal
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randle is more of a salisbury steak in this posters opinion wiggins is tempura lobster embiid is white truffles parker is creme brûlée aaron gordon is hot wings
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Smart is fried rice covered in sriracha. Hmmm. I might get chinese for lunch.
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you are all the worst
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mynameisjohn posted:randle is more of a salisbury steak in this posters opinion I think Embiid is Scallops. If prepared properly, they're amazing. If you gently caress up, they lovely little hockey pucks.
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#1- I have no idea who Cleveland is going to take. #2- I have no idea who Milwaukee is going to take. #3- I have no idea who Philly is going to take. Embiid, Wiggins, Parker?
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Philly has the easiest draft this year. Take who is left, compliment that person with the 10th pick.
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After reading posts on Truebluenation i am convinced the Magic do have an interest in Dante Exum, i'm just not sure how much of it is a smokescreen. I am convinced that Embiid,Wiggins and Parker are going before pick 4. Now someone here explain to me, is the interest in Exum a smokescreen? If not, why is he a good pick at number 4, i just don't see it. I still think Smart is the second best guard in the draft and honestly i think they take a big man here.
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# ? May 30, 2023 16:23 |
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I haven't been able to comfortably buy a Bucks jersey after being burnt by Bogut/Jennings purchases, so please be instantly good. Whichever one you pick.
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