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fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

And to go into specifics a little further about the vig Meinberg and I had - to submit someone to vig, we both had to submit a name to Somber separately and it had to be the same name for the vig to go through. If we submitted different names, then the person who submitted last would be killed instead.

This is why Meinberg and I have so much faith in each other, because we know that we both submitted the same name as we agreed upon in our mason doc.

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fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

Vote Ras, he's the only person in the game that has a kill.

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.

Clockwork Gadget posted:

If it's the latter, then the scum team seems very likely to be you two, using this and your convenient "masons with a shared vig" claim to try to do a last-ditch effort to save your game long enough so you can ride the cult-hunt train to victory. In this case, it seems to me that the best action for us to take is to lynch one of you today.

This is a total misrepresentation. At no point have I advocated hunting cult members. I'm the person who is trying to get the SK lynched.

Clockwork Gadget
Oct 30, 2008

tick tock


fiery_valkyrie posted:

All NK's are accounted for.

Sure, I agree, all the NK's that have actually resolved have been accounted for. That's not really the issue, for me, at this point.

fiery_valkyrie posted:

The cult don't have a kill.

Which is why keeping Ras around doesn't do any harm, since it's become clear that the remaining cult member(s) don't have any damaging powers.

fiery_valkyrie posted:

We don't even know if they have a win con that is incompatible with town.

C'mon. Yes, we don't know that, but the alternative is that, in a game with only TWO claimed/flipped vanilla town, that not only is there not a scum team with a kill, but the only strictly anti-town faction is a single serial killer.


fiery_valkyrie posted:

Why would we randomly kill other people hoping we can hit a cultist, instead of Ras, whose win con is definitely incompatible with town.

Because Ras has no chance of winning, and, in fact, has no real chance of even doing any additional harm to the town. The cult could still potentially continue to lurk their way to a victory.

fiery_valkyrie posted:

This is why Meinberg and I have so much faith in each other, because we know that we both submitted the same name as we agreed upon in our mason doc.

If you are really town, having both submitted the same non-scum name that you agreed on in secret is a pretty weak-rear end reason to trust a masonbuddy as not being scum. Reductively, that boils down to "sure I trust 'em, they helped me kill the town player that we had previously agreed on, no problem!'

fiery_valkyrie posted:

This is a total misrepresentation. At no point have I advocated hunting cult members. I'm the person who is trying to get the SK lynched.

I never said you did, and that is not the point. I am arguing two separate but slightly related things in my posts.

If you are scum, then this SK reveal kind of hosed you. You are trying to twist it as a way to not only get the town to thin numbers today for you, as well as potentially completely obliterate the idea of there even being a scum team in preparation for a scum win tomorrow. If this scenario is true, we must lynch you. Even if it's not true, we can't take the chance that it is, and we still must lynch you. But, let's assume that you're right, and there is no scum team. Let's investigate what that means for you today.

If you're not scum, and there is no scum team, then the SK has revealed himself and become a completely ineffectual entity. Yes, he still has a night kill, but it's one that can be blocked now that we've identified the source. That means that the only threat to the town win that remains is the existence of any remaining cult members. Here's what we know on that front, if all claims currently made are true: there have been no cult flips besides the recruiter, leaving 2 potential recruit actions unaccounted for; Kumba and Allen did not become cult members n1, as they were both protected; I and Asiina could not become cult members n2, as we were both protected; Ras is an SK that killed the cult recruiter. That leaves you and Meinberg, who not only didn't have a protected state either night (meaning the probability of one of you individually being scum at 28%), but also had a self-admittedly strange circumstance occur that suggests that one of you had been recruited n1.

In summary, both of you are the most likely to have been recruited n1. It's the strongest cult lead we have to go on. Ras has been completely defused in this situation, making lynching him not a priority. These conditions lead to the two points I have been arguing:

1.) We have to lynch you today, on the remaining chance that you are scum trying to play the last save you possibly could in a situation that has completely boned you.
2.) Even if we didn't have to lynch you today, lynching you is still the most effective test for whether or not a scum team remains in the game, and has a high probability of killing one of the remaining non-town faction members that still have a chance of winning the game.

Lynching Ras is smart, as he is either an SK who must die eventually or scum making a completely unnecessary gambit. Lynching you is even smarter, as Ras is now completely shut down as a threat to the town, and you are tied with your mason partner as being the player currently alive in the game that is both statistically and circumstantially most likely to be a cult member.

If you flip scum, fantastic! We've avoided a dire situation and have much more breathing room. If you flip cult, fantastic! We're undoubtedly closer to winning, and have eliminated the possibility of a scum team in play, so we can lynch Ras and go from there. If you flip town, that kind of sucks and I am sorry, but it means that we have almost certainly eliminated the possibility of there being a scum team, we've gained valuable information on the direction to go towards finding any remaining scum members, and we can always lynch Ras tomorrow, no additional harm done.

No matter how you slice it, your flip is the most important flip that we can get today for the information and benefits it would provide.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

I am down with this and if we're being played in some way then well done.

##vote fv

Rascyc
Jan 23, 2008

Dissatisfied Puppy

fiery_valkyrie posted:

And to go into specifics a little further about the vig Meinberg and I had - to submit someone to vig, we both had to submit a name to Somber separately and it had to be the same name for the vig to go through. If we submitted different names, then the person who submitted last would be killed instead.

This is why Meinberg and I have so much faith in each other, because we know that we both submitted the same name as we agreed upon in our mason doc.
are you claiming credit for pmom?

Rascyc
Jan 23, 2008

Dissatisfied Puppy

fiery_valkyrie posted:

Vote Ras, he's the only person in the game that has a kill.
This is a silly argument for a 13 player game.

Honestly if I had to guess, it's probably 1 scum vs arsonist/SK vs cult vs town because that at least gives town a fighting chance, especially with these PRs. And that scum is undoubtedly f_v at this point.

Rascyc
Jan 23, 2008

Dissatisfied Puppy

Meinberg posted:

This just in, being sick sucks! I've been out of it all day, and likely will be passing out again shortly.


I am almost positive that there is no traditional scum team, just the cult and SK. With Ras's claim, I now know where all of the night kills have come from.

For you see, while me and f_v were in a masonry together, we could cooperate to perform a vigkill. It had a lot of qualifiers, including that the disruption of our masonry prevented further vigging. We went after PMom because of how weird he was acting D1.

Killing the remaining killer seems like the best route forward, and gives us the most time possible to finish rooting out the cult.

##vote Ras
Oh I see the full claim here. Who suggested Pmom first?

Also if you knew what disrupted your masonry why did the two of you throw soft balls at each other about "why could our masonry been disrupted". How did that help advance the game for anyone town?

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

Rascyc posted:

Oh I see the full claim here. Who suggested Pmom first?

Also if you knew what disrupted your masonry why did the two of you throw soft balls at each other about "why could our masonry been disrupted". How did that help advance the game for anyone town?

Also - if you (Meinberg & fv) were town, why did you not claim the kill immediately on D2 instead of sowing confusion? That makes absolutely 0 sense from any town perpsective I can think of, especially given that your masonry "disappeared" and you could no longer communicate with each other. This claim does not pass the sniff test.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

fiery_valkyrie posted:

And to go into specifics a little further about the vig Meinberg and I had - to submit someone to vig, we both had to submit a name to Somber separately and it had to be the same name for the vig to go through. If we submitted different names, then the person who submitted last would be killed instead.

This is why Meinberg and I have so much faith in each other, because we know that we both submitted the same name as we agreed upon in our mason doc.

This doesn't make any sense. Why would you have faith in someone being town just because you both submitted the same name for a kill? It's not like you agreed upon a kill and they flipped scum - if that were the case I could understand trusting them since throwing a scumbuddy under the bus N1 would be a crazy gambit - but the person you killed was town. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever that you automatically trust your unconfirmed mason as a result of that.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

There is no universe wherein it makes sense to kill Ras right now. We have a confirmed Jailer who can lock him down for at least tonight. At the very least, f_v is flailing.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

Vote her then and let's see where this leaves us.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

I'm planning on it, I'm just rereading to make sure I didn't miss anything

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

Okay yeah I didn't miss anything

##vote f_v

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop


fiery_valkyrie

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


The tone shifts in the auditorium and the lights take on a red tint as the remaining tracks circle around Fiery Valkyrie.

"It was you, wasn't it? You started taking us down but then you lost the stomach for it, admit it!"

Valkyrie backs away, hands raised and smiling nervously. "Haha, whoah, hey, no. No no no. It wasn't me, honestly. Look, why don't we talk this over a little more?"

Without warning a wave crashes into Valkyrie from behind, knocking her to the ground. The auditorium had disappeared, and a beach had taken its place. Valkyrie let out a scream and cried "Not again! Not again! I've died here a thousand times, please just let me live through the finale!"

The mob found they had no mercy in their hearts for the Diaz Brothers.


Fiery Valkyrie, The Diaz Brothers, Survivor-Aligned Mason Vigilante was led out to the beach by the hand, and then buried there in the sand day four.


Liner Notes

"Frank tells Tony he has to respect the Diaz brothers, and Tony tells him to eff the Diaz Brothers, and by the time we do see them, they're dead. I'm obsessed with people we never got to know but who we know about, because you have a sense of who they were and what became of them since they died, but they're essentially blocking characters in this story we all know. And we're all basically blocking characters in life, when you think about it."



Night actions.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


Final Votecount for Day 4

fiery_valkyrie (4): Rascyc, Clockwork Gadget, Asiina, Kumbamontu
Rascyc (2): fiery_valkyrie, Meinberg

Not Voting (1): Allen Wren

With 7 alive, it's 4 votes to lynch. The current deadline is January 21st, 2015 at 8 p.m. CST -- that's in about 1 day, 8 hours.


No one died night four.


Day five begins.

Clockwork Gadget
Oct 30, 2008

tick tock


Why didn't you just claim survivor??? That would have been a more believable claim.
Meinberg, why shouldn't we lynch you today?

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

Clockwork Gadget posted:

Why didn't you just claim survivor??? That would have been a more believable claim.
Meinberg, why shouldn't we lynch you today?

Can you jail the same person multiple nights in a row? If you can't we p much have to kill Ras then you jail Mein, and then kill Mein the following day

Rascyc
Jan 23, 2008

Dissatisfied Puppy

Yeah you should just kill me today or let me hunt cultists at night. It's up to you guys.

Clockwork Gadget
Oct 30, 2008

tick tock


Right, right. Sorry, Ras. No hard feelings. Thanks for the help.

##vote Rascyc

Rascyc
Jan 23, 2008

Dissatisfied Puppy

You'll probably have to blind fire for cultists tbqh, since he got two recruits. I'd honestly just vote off all the lurkers because they don't deserve a win.

Rascyc
Jan 23, 2008

Dissatisfied Puppy

Good luck! Weird game! Had fun etc.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

He may not have gotten 2 recruits, we could have gotten lucky and I managed to protect one or both before he died. Really though there's no way to know.

Thanks again for the help Ras but ##vote Ras

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

##vote Ras

What a strange game. This reminds me of the brutal doctor game.

Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011


Well then, let us see this to the end.

##vote Ras

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop


Oh god! Rascyc is hammered!

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


Okay!

Before Valkyrie had even drawn her last breath, they turned on Rascyc. He was standing alone, staring at the ground.

One of you asks, "Rascyc? What's this all about?"

He slowly raises his head, a smile plastered on his face. He stands there silent for a minute, just looking off past the other songs before he answers.

"I'm sick of it. I'm sick of listening to John play the same tracks over and over again. I'm sick of people still shouting goddamn
"Freebird!" after all this time. I'm sick of people. It's all just holding John back from greatness. We could have burnt this whole stupid amphitheater to the ground and risen from the ashes to become something better than a bunch of worn-out songs squabbling over a concert performance."

Before the mob can step forward to administer justice, Rascyc raises his arms and looks to the sky before bursting into flames. The smell of burning flesh and the sound of his high-pitched cackling echoing throughout the amphitheater sends the mob running as Rascyc is consumed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlA1yyWVoGU

Rascyc, Michael Myers Resplendent, Self-Aligned Arsonist was lynched day five!


Liner Notes
"When I wrote this I didn't know that they were remaking Halloween- I just have a real love for slasher films, probably because when they were a new phenomenon I was so terrified just by the newspaper ads that I avoided the hell out of them. As a child I was pretty easily frightened, the world seemed like a place where all sorts of random devilment could just pop out from the woodwork at any second. This song is like Sax Rohmer #1 if the narrator had given up on ever actually getting home; of the present bunch, this was the first song written. It's also the one that I played piano on, which I like to do once each album, since piano was the first instrument I ever learned to play."

Night actions.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


If you didn't get a night action result then presume your night action was successful.

Final Votecount for Day 5

Rascyc (4): Clockwork Gadget, Kumbamontu, Asiina, Meinberg

Not Voting (2): Allen Wren, Rascyc

With 6 alive, it's 4 votes to lynch. The current deadline is January 21st, 2015 at 8 p.m. CST -- that's in about 1 day, 5 hours.

No one died night five.

Day six begins.

With five alive, it is three to lynch. Deadline will be set if necessary.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

So presumably it's Meinberg now for most likely to be a cultist, correct?

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

I would think so, yeah. There may be 2 out there but Meinberg is my top choice for sure, with you and Allen close behind in #2 spot

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

##vote Meinberg

Clockwork Gadget
Oct 30, 2008

tick tock


Kumbamontu posted:

I would think so, yeah. There may be 2 out there but Meinberg is my top choice for sure, with you and Allen close behind in #2 spot

same

Asiina posted:

##vote Meinberg

same

##vote Meinberg

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

I'm not a cultist, but do we have the numbers to afford to be wrong after Meinberg cause if so I don't mind dying so people can be sure? Can someone summarize the night actions when capps could have recruited?

Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011


Asiina posted:

I'm not a cultist, but do we have the numbers to afford to be wrong after Meinberg cause if so I don't mind dying so people can be sure? Can someone summarize the night actions when capps could have recruited?

It comes down to whether Capps was able to recruit N2 or night, before he got killed. If he did, then there are two cultists floating, and if you vote me off, then they'll have the tie tomorrow. If the action priority list has Capps dying before he can recruit, then there's only one cultist around, which gives us three votekills to throw around, getting to the last remaining cultist.

Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011


I think it's Clockwork.

##vote Clockwork

All of his talk about a scum team feels like it was done intentionally to create noise, rather than a genuine speculation. Even after the likelihood of a SK rather than scum team became pointed out, he still clung to his scum team theory. There's also the weirdness about his claimed role, it sounds like something that a person would make up, to hide his true role.

And I had no idea that f_v was a survivor. Our talk in masonry chat was all about how we were both town, and I didn't think that a third party would have access to a vig, though with the restrictions placed on it, giving a vig to a town-survivor pairing makes sense.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

They only have a tie tomorrow if there's actually scum left in the game and they kill someone. Given that there have been 0 kills N3/N4/N5, we are either highly lucky or Clockwork is lying about being the Jailer and is just withholding the kill. That sounds incredibly unlikely to me that he'd withhold 3 nights in a row, ergo, he's not lying.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back


Grimey Drawer

Kumbamontu posted:

They only have a tie tomorrow if there's actually scum left in the game and they kill someone. Given that there have been 0 kills N3/N4/N5, we are either highly lucky or Clockwork is lying about being the Jailer and is just withholding the kill. That sounds incredibly unlikely to me that he'd withhold 3 nights in a row, ergo, he's not lying.

There's only 5 alive, so if Meinberg isn't a cultist but two of you are then town would lose.

kumba
Nov 8, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

enjoy the ride



Lipstick Apathy

Oh wait, that votecount has Rascyc listed still alive. There's only 5 people right now. Hmmm that makes it a bit more interesting

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Clockwork Gadget
Oct 30, 2008

tick tock


Asiina posted:

I'm not a cultist, but do we have the numbers to afford to be wrong after Meinberg cause if so I don't mind dying so people can be sure? Can someone summarize the night actions when capps could have recruited?

Meinberg posted:

It comes down to whether Capps was able to recruit N2 or night, before he got killed. If he did, then there are two cultists floating, and if you vote me off, then they'll have the tie tomorrow. If the action priority list has Capps dying before he can recruit, then there's only one cultist around, which gives us three votekills to throw around, getting to the last remaining cultist.

If Meinberg doesn't flip cult, and there are, in fact, two cultists (see below for more info), that means that we probably go into a 2 on 2 cultist vs. town vote stalemate, which would probably give victory to cultists (I think, not sure how it works, they'd be at 50% at any rate)?

If Meinberg does flip cultist, then we have another mislynch available before it goes to lylo.

If Meinberg doesn't flip cultist, and we still haven't lost, then that means we have another mislynch available before it goes to lylo.

If we accept all claims, there were two protective actions out that would have prevented role changing (mine and Kumba's). Meinberg could have been either recruited n1 or n2. On n1, if we accept all claims, there is a 40% chance no one was recruited, and a 20% chance each that any one of you, myself, or Meinberg was recruited.

Here is where the chances split in a number of ways, but here are the most obvious:

If Meinberg was recruited n1, that makes the n2 recruitments 50% failure chance and 25% each for Allen and Kumba. If you were recruited n1, then n2 chances are 25% fail, 25% Allen or Kumba or Meinberg. If I was recruited n1, then there's no real basis on which to form the probabilities, because I would have likely lied about my night actions at least partially. Same for Kumba for n1/n2.

As a VT (your claim), you either you have to accept the claimed night actions and vote based on those, or throw a random vote off in the dark. vv

Either way, it boils down to if it IS Meinberg, then we've got an extra lynch to figure it out. If it ISN'T Meinberg, then we have either lost the game or have an extra lynch to figure it out. The odds that there are 2 cultists are fairly near even on yes/no, though, which means that there's something like a 66% chance (probably statistically significant margin of error on that) of being on the path to winning if we lynch Meinberg.

Not that anyone needs any extra convincing.


Also: lol, Meinberg's case against me would require everything that both Kumba and I to have claimed the entire game to be a well-crafted lie where both of us are colluding and have been out in front of every single claim the entire game. classic.

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