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Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


I put 2% of my portfolio in cryptocurrency and have been trading it and now I'm up 2.4x since June, it's p cool

Not a true believer, don't care if it crashes someday because I'm in USD 99% of the time. If the exchange gets hacked then lol it was a fun hobby.

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COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's interesting to watch people retreat to this.

My gains are disagreeing with everyone that said it was a scam or risky, like yourself, last time around we had this discussion. You are emprically wrong about the world, unable to make useful predictions, and anyone that listens to your advice will be diminished financially.

I think that's hilarious and plan to keep revisiting this over time, because I find it very funny the claims that were thrown around and luckily we have this thread and last thread around to refer back to!

You're throwing words like empirically around and refusing to post any kind of empirical evidence when prompted so

Whatever it's kind of just funny watching the occasional goon declare they know everything then engage in every single fallacy retail traders engage in. Chart me some patterns next? I heard it is forming a double top!!!

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



Stefan Prodan posted:

So you're saying it's an unpredictable investment that could go up or down and you can't make a strong case for whether it will go either way?

Like...the same thing that I'm saying?

Yeah except the only posts on the topic for about 5+ years on these very forums were about how dumb you were to ever entertain anything to do with buttcoins, this thing you're posting right here is the very woke BTC are over 3000 and staying there view that has been established past month or so

EorayMel
May 29, 2015

You got the fluffy kitty kitty!


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I don't know that it's going up

So your predictions are presumably just as wrong as ours, in your eyes.

Which makes you no more qualified than us if we're following your logic.

Eat poo poo

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Cool, forums superstars making fun of bitcoins and buttcoins miners were dumber than the redditors they made fun of for years, and this guy admitted to it. Well done everyone.

I am cassandra and I speak for the goons

Waffle House
Oct 26, 2004

beep beEP BEEP

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yeah and what if like, he got mugged or lost his wallet containing $100, what happens then?

Clearly cash is loving unreliable get rid of it and don't let anyone use it with you / around you.

I edited my post for clarity, I realized I'd typed something that sounded different than what I wanted to ask. I have no experience with even having a .wallet, so I'm kinda testing the veracity of my coworker's story vs. what reality might be.

How possible is it for someone to "hack" his phone, and utilize its 2FA security to send his coins to a different .wallet? Is that a thing that's happened to other people, or is this too convoluted to add up and be realistic?

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yeah except the only posts on the topic for about 5+ years on these very forums were about how dumb you were to ever entertain anything to do with buttcoins, this thing you're posting right here is the very woke BTC are over 3000 and staying there view that has been established past month or so

You realize an investment where you can't actually give any reasons a thing should continue to be more likely to go up than down is what we call a "bad investment" right

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

You're throwing words like empirically around and refusing to post any kind of empirical evidence when prompted so

Whatever it's kind of just funny watching the occasional goon declare they know everything then engage in every single fallacy retail traders engage in. Chart me some patterns next?

Empirically, an asset that was $2500 when you warned people away from it due to sound Risk analysis, is now over $4000 with much higher volume, meaning your advice was factually incorrect unless you are predicting some imminent disaster you believe is about to occur?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yeah except the only posts on the topic for about 5+ years on these very forums were about how dumb you were to ever entertain anything to do with buttcoins, this thing you're posting right here is the very woke BTC are over 3000 and staying there view that has been established past month or so

And some people made a lot of money and some people lost it all.

If I told you "bet everything you have today and in 5-10 years you might be a millionaire or totally broke" you'd say yeah that's a good risk to take?

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


If you "invested" in cash then lololololol

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



CassandraZara posted:

If you "invested" in cash then lololololol

Cash and liquid assets are often a part of portfolios or is this some gag I'm missing

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

Ham Sandwiches posted:

Empirically, an asset that was $2500 when you warned people away from it due to sound Risk analysis, is now over $4000 with much higher volume, meaning your advice was factually incorrect unless you are predicting some imminent disaster you believe is about to occur?

Again this is not true, only that it came out a certain way

If you bet even money for your entire net worth that a die will roll a 1 or 2 and it does, and I told you not to, it doesn't make me wrong if you win.

Even if you bet even money that it would be a 1-3, and I said "that's a bad investment" because it has 0 EV, I'm still not wrong if you win.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

And some people made a lot of money and some people lost it all.

If I told you "bet everything you have today and in 5-10 years you might be a millionaire or totally broke" you'd say yeah that's a good risk to take?

Umm what people do you believe lost it all going from bitcoins worth $2500 6 months ago when we were talking about this to now when they are worth $4000? Aside from a few edge cases this seems hard to imagine, can you please explain in more detail?

What you were telling people is that bitcoins are a worthless joke being traded on the magic the gathering online exchange with no inherent value and that people should invest in anything else. Even in this thread you were suggesting traditional stocks. I'm telling you are loving people over with ignorant and wrong advice, for some bizarre reason.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Empirically, an asset that was $2500 when you warned people away from it due to sound Risk analysis, is now over $4000 with much higher volume, meaning your advice was factually incorrect unless you are predicting some imminent disaster you believe is about to occur?

lmao you have no idea what you're talking about it's great.

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Cash and liquid assets are often a part of portfolios or is this some gag I'm missing

Maybe if you're like sixty? In which case I doubt you're investing in bitcoins?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



Stefan Prodan posted:

Again this is not true, only that it came out a certain way

If you bet even money for your entire net worth that a die will roll a 1 or 2 and it does, and I told you not to, it doesn't make me wrong if you win.

Even if you bet even money that it would be a 1-3, and I said "that's a bad investment" because it has 0 EV, I'm still not wrong if you win.

Well luckily we can simply observe what happens, and all the people that predicted that Bitcoin was a total garbage scam being traded like wow gold and magic the gathering online, vs those that felt it was worth considering, and what the total valuation and liquidity and acceptance rate will be

So yeah dude the guys that were busy laughing about MT GOX I'm just curious their take and how they weren't wrong

OMG do you even know what MTGOX stands for it

it's not even the right kind of cards.. not even magic cards... magic the gathering ONLINE cards ahahahahaha

the wrong kind of magic cards

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Stefan Prodan posted:

You realize an investment where you can't actually give any reasons a thing should continue to be more likely to go up than down is what we call a "bad investment" right
honestly it doesn't matter as long as there is volume, volatility, you know how to manage risk, and you otherwise have good trading practices

if you're buying and holding long-term then yeah you should have an investment thesis

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

lmao you have no idea what you're talking about it's great.

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

It's amazing dude I can now tell you've read at least 1 prospectus in your life but I am also pretty sure you don't know what you're talking about the more we discuss

Anyway let's just agree that I'll be chiming back in periodically to revisit our stances w/r/t Bitcoin and your expert Risk analysis of it

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


Ham Sandwiches have you thought about buying bitcoins or maybe a few of the five hundred alt-coins that have sprung up this year? An index of all of them would probably beat the Russell 3000, though it would be fair to say that most will lose value in a year's time.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

So yeah dude the guys that were busy laughing about MT GOX I'm just curious their take and how they weren't wrong

OMG do you even know what MTGOX stands for it

it's not even the right kind of cards.. not even magic cards... magic the gathering ONLINE cards ahahahahaha

the wrong kind of magic cards

quote:

Mt. Gox was a bitcoin exchange based in Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan.[1] Launched in July 2010, by 2013 and into 2014 it was handling over 70% of all bitcoin transactions worldwide, as the largest bitcoin intermediary and the world's leading bitcoin exchange.[2][3][4][5]

In February 2014, Mt. Gox suspended trading, closed its website and exchange service, and filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors.[6][7] In April 2014, the company began liquidation proceedings.[8]

Mt. Gox announced that approximately 850,000 bitcoins belonging to customers and the company were missing and likely stolen, an amount valued at more than $450 million at the time.[9][10] Although 200,000 bitcoins have since been "found", the reason(s) for the disappearance—theft, fraud, mismanagement, or a combination of these—were initially unclear. New evidence presented in April 2015 by Tokyo security company WizSec led them to conclude that "most or all of the missing bitcoins were stolen straight out of the Mt. Gox hot wallet over time, beginning in late 2011."[11][12]

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



CassandraZara posted:

Ham Sandwiches have you thought about buying bitcoins or maybe a few of the five hundred alt-coins that have sprung up this year? An index of all of them would probably beat the Russell 3000, though it would be fair to say that most will lose value in a year's time.

Is there some kind of contractual obligation you have to tell other people what to do with their money because they are unable to decide for themselves?

I'm genuinely interested from warning me away to Bitcoins to warning me towards them, people seem to feel very very very strongly about what I do with my money. Can you explain to me why?

Just to clarify, I don't give a gently caress about anything you do in your life or with your money and I hope you don't tell me about it.

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



ham sandwiches is back at it. "oh the price according to the bitcoin exchanges has gone up! i could have been a millionaire if i hadnt listened to goons!
oh someone replied to me. goons said it was a scam and youre a goon. you told me this was a scam! no i dont feel a need to know exactly who im talking to"

Ham Sandwiches posted:

My gains are disagreeing with everyone that said it was a scam or risky
bitcoin is risky as gently caress you idiot. i guess there go your "gains". sorry about your bitchboy portfolio. maybe diversify with some goodposts next time

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I'm genuinely interested from warning me away to Bitcoins to warning me towards them, people seem to feel very very very strongly about what I do with my money. Can you explain to me why?

You literally just linked an Exchange that "lost" all their customer's holdings lmao.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000




It's not that laughing at Mt Gox was wrong or that the theft was inevitable growing pains of taking something completely fake and having people use it for real

It's that this guy is smarter than fedora redditors and makes sound financial investments in assets that have intrinsic worth

*totally ignores whole new financial system, you can't fool this guy, spends years warning people off of it, is wrong every step of the way, congratulates self for amazing predictions*

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


I'm a millionaire who made money betting on risky products. There are a lot of red flags about Bitcoin, any one of them enough to keep me from seriously investing. I have one bitcoin I bought on the way down in 2014 for about $600 but that's not a serious investment and for the majority of the time I've owned it, it had lost money.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

You literally just linked an Exchange that "lost" all their customer's holdings lmao.

Yep and Bitcoins will forever be a scam as a result, with people helpfully reminding you of that fact as they cross $3000 and stay there

Dude you get that my point is, this is poo poo that happened in the past, clearly didn't matter, and yet many forums posters still laugh about it while it's clearly irrelevant?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's not that laughing at Mt Gox was wrong or that the theft was inevitable growing pains of taking something completely fake and having people use it for real

It's that this guy is smarter than fedora redditors and makes sound financial investments in assets that have intrinsic worth

*totally ignores whole new financial system, you can't fool this guy, spends years warning people off of it, is wrong every step of the way, congratulates self for amazing predictions*

Well idk what you're upset about because all I'm saying as far as risk analysis goes that it is far from a sure thing and imo there are better things to put your money into.

The fact that an exchange which handled 70% of trading volume stole all their customer's wallets is exactly what I'm talking about. If you ignored us 5 years ago and loaded up on BTC, you would have lost it all more likely than not.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

Well idk what you're upset about because all I'm saying as far as risk analysis goes that it is far from a sure thing and imo there are better things to put your money into.

The fact that an exchange which handled 70% of trading volume stole all their customer's wallets is exactly what I'm talking about. If you ignored us 5 years ago and loaded up on BTC, you would have lost it all more likely than not.

I'm saying that your Expert Risk Analysis identified exchange collapse as a Risk based on the past collapse of MT GOX (while claiming past performance is irrelevant), and since the last thread where this was discussed there hasn't been any Risk to exchanges, which means that I believe your Risk Analysis was useless, empirically, given that the risk you identified has not materialized and the price of Bitcoins has increased by 50% since your prediction.

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


Ham Sandwiches posted:

since the last thread where this was discussed there hasn't been any Risk to exchanges

lol and I thought you were being serious.

Bitcoin is fascinating to me but when you act like this, it's difficult to take you seriously. I don't think you're trolling but man, you're hilarious.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Exchange compromise is a risk I accept with my crypto portfolio, and it's why I only have 2% (well now more like 4%) of my overall investment portfolio in crypto. Once I reach a certain dollar value, I'm going to begin paying myself back to cover my initial investment so that any further trading is "risk free." Then I'll keep trading, hopefully successfully, and pay myself dividends that I can put into traditional investments to stay well-diversified.

That's my basic strategy.

I just can't ignore the potential of 30% monthly returns that I've gotten so far. The reward is easily worth the risk, at least for me.

OJ MIST 2 THE DICK
Sep 10, 2008

Anytime I need to see your face I just close my eyes
And I am taken to a place
Where your crystal minds and magenta feelings
Take up shelter in the base of my spine
Sweet like a chica cherry cola

-Cheap Trick



Nap Ghost

*looks at trade volumes ever since China started it's crackdown back in January*

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



Ham Sandwiches posted:

Yep and Bitcoins will forever be a scam as a result, with people helpfully reminding you of that fact as they cross $3000 and stay there

Dude you get that my point is, this is poo poo that happened in the past, clearly didn't matter, and yet many forums posters still laugh about it while it's clearly irrelevant?
losing all your money is clearly irrelevant especially when its in the past not in the future
bitcoin price times 200% times 0 equals... big bucks

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



CassandraZara posted:

lol and I thought you were being serious.

Bitcoin is fascinating to me but when you act like this, it's difficult to take you seriously. I don't think you're trolling but man, you're hilarious.

Lmao exchange collapses dude, not general risk. There have not been Mt Gox style exchange collapses despite constant predictions to that effect.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

I'm saying that your Expert Risk Analysis identified exchange collapse as a Risk based on the past collapse of MT GOX (while claiming past performance is irrelevant),

My risk analysis identified systemic issues like that back when BTC was originally a Thing so don't put words in my mouth thanks. "Am I protected if the worst happens?" is a basic question to be asked in any endeavor.

Currently there is no regulation so as far as I'm concerned the exchanges are still suspect, but alright just keep it in a private wallet and don't get hacked. You're still exposed to tons of other factors like the Chinese government deciding to crack down on it or competing cryptocurrencies or several other things.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



exploded mummy posted:

*looks at trade volumes ever since China started it's crackdown back in January*



Nice chart, that ends in May and now it's October.

What do you think happened since then??? Hmm?? Can you update the pic??

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

My risk analysis identified systemic issues like that back when BTC was originally a Thing so don't put words in my mouth thanks. "Am I protected if the worst happens?" is a basic question to be asked in any endeavor.

Currently there is no regulation so as far as I'm concerned the exchanges are still suspect, but alright just keep it in a private wallet and don't get hacked. You're still exposed to tons of other factors like the Chinese government deciding to crack down on it or competing cryptocurrencies or several other things.

This is 10000% incompatible with your past advice warning people to stay the gently caress away at all costs because it's a scam with no inherent value only used for money laundering!!!!!

Has your position been refined or was it that perhaps somehow people were missing this nuance previously?

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


And what happens the next time China does something?

Ham Sandwiches posted:

This is 10000% incompatible with your past advice warning people to stay the gently caress away at all costs because it's a scam with no inherent value only used for money laundering!!!!!

How? That's still true.

That's my entire point: there is nothing propping up the value of these things thus high risk.

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


Even if it's only used for money laundering, it has value. It's just not a sound investment with the amount of risk and at a "market cap" of $150 billion.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


CassandraZara posted:

Even if it's only used for money laundering, it has value.

That's pretty drat tenuous.

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EorayMel
May 29, 2015

You got the fluffy kitty kitty!


COMRADES posted:

there is nothing propping up the value of these things thus high risk.

There is: it's called new suckers.

And the money laundering/ransomware/drug thing.

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