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CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


What is the expected window for the price of Bitcoin in the next year? I think it's something like -95% to +400% which makes it way too risky for me personally. What do you think Ham Sandwiches? Care to make a prediction?

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Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



gary oldmans diary posted:

if they were a bad investment at the figure of $2500 what makes you think theyre a good investment at $4000? that number by itself is meaningless but your whole argument is "durr the number go higher"

No, the argument is that the claims about it being a bad investment / risky / no inherent value / used for money laundering are false, irrelevant, misleading, and people use outdated charts and stuff from years ago to perpetuate some idea that is not really holding up over time

So you're not gonna be wrong if bitcoins hit $5k or $10k, and if a country like Japan starts using them openly or hedge funds keep getting into things or maybe people decide to use it as a non national means of exchange, nothing you said will ever be wrong or dumb

It's just that it was a bad investment, so if it fails you'll have been right, and if it works out then it'll be the exception that proved the rule but you were still right to tell people it was risky or whatever

Can't lose with that stance I guess!! Or perhaps it's circular and you're an idiot in this just like you are in your ability to assess investments????

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!




Grimey Drawer

i can say this for sure

no matter what happens with bitcoin

you are a huge dumbass and a terrible poster

divabot
Jun 17, 2015

Assisted Living Dracula of Wikipedia

DO NOT BELIEVE THIS MAN'S LIE!
Statist shill spreading FUD!

HODL!!


Ham Sandwiches lost his job as a licensed investment shoeshine boy and so has had to come back here.

In the meantime, I have made 2100 from bitcoin!!

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



CassandraZara posted:

What is the expected window for the price of Bitcoin in the next year? I think it's something like -95% to +400% which makes it way too risky for me personally. What do you think Ham Sandwiches? Care to make a prediction?

So to me, it's very odd to imply that I'm claiming that I know the price of bitcoin, or that I can predict the future, or that I'm telling people what to do with their money, because none of these things are the case.

I'm saying that in the turmoil and turbulent world we live in, Bitcoins may end up useful or they may not. Simply dismissing it out of hand as a fedora reddit scam is absolutely premature, I think people that want to hold or speculate on them should go ahead and do so, and good luck to them.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



Stefan Prodan posted:

i can say this for sure

no matter what happens with bitcoin

you are a huge dumbass and a terrible poster

It's so genuinely enjoyable going back through old bitcoin threads and just reading the smug superiority with which people posted. It's great. People are generally careful to not be wrong about stuff or make wishy washy predictions so they don't look totally dumb, but not this time

EorayMel
May 29, 2015

You got the fluffy kitty kitty!


Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's so genuinely enjoyable going back through old bitcoin threads and just reading the smug superiority with which people posted. It's great. People are generally careful to not be wrong about stuff or make wishy washy predictions so they don't look totally dumb, but not this time

I don't think anybody's agreeing with you here

https://forums.somethingawful.com/s...40&pagenumber=2

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



Ham Sandwiches posted:

It's just that it was a bad investment, so if it fails you'll have been right, and if it works out then it'll be the exception that proved the rule but you were still right to tell people it was risky or whatever

Can't lose with that stance I guess!! Or perhaps it's circular and you're an idiot in this just like you are in your ability to assess investments????
it already failed as an investment when the primary exchange of the "investment" stole everyones money the first time
so i guess youre an idiot of the truest variety because even regular idiots can be right in hindsight but that ability escapes you. your stupidity is really off the charts

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



gary oldmans diary posted:

it already failed as an investment when the primary exchange of the "investment" stole everyones money the first time
so i guess youre an idiot of the truest variety because even regular idiots can be right in hindsight but that ability escapes you. your stupidity is really off the charts

Not only will bitcoin fail, it already has!! Wrap it up bitcoinmailures

CassandraZara
Oct 21, 2012

by Nyc_Tattoo


Ham Sandwiches posted:

So to me, it's very odd to imply that I'm claiming that I know the price of bitcoin, or that I can predict the future, or that I'm telling people what to do with their money, because none of these things are the case.

It's very odd to imply that people who implied (or outright stated) that an investment was risky are dumb, yet you are smart for not making any prediction at all!

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



Ham Sandwiches posted:

No, the argument is that the claims about it being a bad investment / risky / no inherent value / used for money laundering are false, irrelevant, misleading, and people use outdated charts and stuff from years ago to perpetuate some idea that is not really holding up over time
i wanted to reply to this part too but you just said something so precisely opposite of correct that it was hard to add an insight of my own into how dumb you are when you make it patently obvious

Former DILF
Jul 13, 2017


CassandraZara posted:

Rent: $1200
Internet: $110
Phone: $200
Food: $200
Bitcoins: $3600

Please help with my budget, my family is dying.

sell your bitcoins

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



Former DILF posted:

sell your bitcoins
*agrees with a buyer to make a cash exchange for the bitcoins*
*arrives at the agreed upon exchange location and the buyer changes his offer to a briefcase full of ham sandwiches*

Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS


Switchblade Switcharoo

Lotsa hostile bad bitcoin karma itt!

Buy buy buy

Blade Runner
Aug 14, 2015



It's legitimately amusing to see a Ham shoe shine boy incessantly screeching with no knowledge of how Buttcoin works beyond "NUMBER GO UP, ME COULD HAVE HAD BIG NUMBER, GOON BAD"

There are many reasons that it's a terrible investment, and these have been explained over and over again, and yet the man continues to screech while pointing at an imaginary number inflated by ridiculous amounts of margin trading on an exchange that can't be withdrawn from

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



David Heinrich posted:

It's legitimately amusing to see a Ham shoe shine boy incessantly screeching with no knowledge of how Buttcoin works beyond "NUMBER GO UP, ME COULD HAVE HAD BIG NUMBER, GOON BAD"

There are many reasons that it's a terrible investment, and these have been explained over and over again, and yet the man continues to screech while pointing at an imaginary number inflated by ridiculous amounts of margin trading on an exchange that can't be withdrawn from

Ah the autistic screeching maneuver, love it.

"Can't be arsed going into the reasons they're a terrible investment, just yaknow, everyone knows that and they're correct and this loving autistic dude doesn't agree and the price keeps going up and so the fact that he is using the price to imply it may not be a total scam proves that he's wrong"

Great dude this is wonderful discourse and really worthy, well crafted ideas you are throwing out

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


gary oldmans diary posted:

*agrees with a buyer to make a cash exchange for the bitcoins*
*arrives at the agreed upon exchange location and the buyer changes his offer to a briefcase full of ham sandwiches*
you could just sell them on an exchange and then wire the money to your bank from the exchange

then buy ham sandwiches

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



CassandraZara posted:

It's very odd to imply that people who implied (or outright stated) that an investment was risky are dumb, yet you are smart for not making any prediction at all!

There's a bunch of different ways it could go, but I don't have any ability to see the future. If people want to start making predictions I think that'd be fun but I don't wanna be the only jackass on the hook!!

In general my take is that if someone wants to throw a few grand into bitcoins or mine some up as a hedge against instability or as a speculative investment, I think it's 100% AOK if they do so. They are risky but if someone wants to accept that risk I think it's cool.

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



Ham Sandwiches posted:

"Can't be arsed going into the reasons they're a terrible investment, just yaknow, everyone knows that
yeah we can see the reasons he stated right there in his post. this isnt like a verbal conversation where that information might get lost
youre doing some really sad flailing ham sandwiches

Neukoln19
Oct 27, 2005


I made 15 bux off bitcoins

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



gary oldmans diary posted:

yeah we can see the reasons he stated right there in his post. this isnt like a verbal conversation where that information might get lost
youre doing some really sad flailing ham sandwiches

What reasons did he list in his post? Did he edit it after I replied? I quoted the whole thing he wrote it was two sentences.

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



Ham Sandwiches posted:

What reasons did he list in his post? Did he edit it after I replied? I quoted the whole thing he wrote it was two sentences.
having problems reading whats in your own posts, ham sandwiches? not that none of us could relate to not wanting to read whats in your posts

Ham Sandwiches posted:

David Heinrich posted:

an imaginary number inflated by ridiculous amounts of margin trading on an exchange that can't be withdrawn from

Blade Runner
Aug 14, 2015



In a sense, sure. It isn't at all my business what people do with their money, as long as that action is legal; currently, Bitcoin is, so who loving cares? However, it's immensely volatile and has no guarantee of return, security, or any worth. It's not investing, it's gambling. As financial advice goes "don't gamble" is a decent piece of it.

But past that, Hammy, the big thing here is that this has been explained to you. A lot. In several threads. Your rebuttal has never, ever been anything but "NUMBER GO UP" or "It's not your business what people do with their money I know a guy who made a bunch of cash playing roulette it's a great investment"

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

No, the argument is that the claims about it being a bad investment / risky / no inherent value / used for money laundering are false, irrelevant, misleading, and people use outdated charts and stuff from years ago to perpetuate some idea that is not really holding up over time

They're not misleading and irrelevant just because you don't understand them and respond with anger when people try to explain.

David Heinrich posted:

In a sense, sure. It isn't at all my business what people do with their money, as long as that action is legal; currently, Bitcoin is, so who loving cares? However, it's immensely volatile and has no guarantee of return, security, or any worth. It's not investing, it's gambling. As financial advice goes "don't gamble" is a decent piece of it.

But past that, Hammy, the big thing here is that this has been explained to you. A lot. In several threads. Your rebuttal has never, ever been anything but "NUMBER GO UP" or "It's not your business what people do with their money I know a guy who made a bunch of cash playing roulette it's a great investment"

yup

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



David Heinrich posted:

In a sense, sure. It isn't at all my business what people do with their money, as long as that action is legal; currently, Bitcoin is, so who loving cares? However, it's immensely volatile and has no guarantee of return, security, or any worth. It's not investing, it's gambling. As financial advice goes "don't gamble" is a decent piece of it.

But past that, Hammy, the big thing here is that this has been explained to you. A lot. In several threads. Your rebuttal has never, ever been anything but "NUMBER GO UP" or "It's not your business what people do with their money I know a guy who made a bunch of cash playing roulette it's a great investment"

The idea that people should be excluded from investing or warned away from it because it's fundamentally risky and you wouldn't touch it is what I take issue with.

The fact that this supposedly prudent advice is being proven wrong from the increase in volume and trading and price - gets simply dismissed as "NUMBER GO UP." Come on, that's simplistic. The number is going up because the acceptance and confidence is going up. Are you unaware of that or being cute?

This investment may be too risky for you. Assigning pejorative terms like gambling and mocking people who choose to use it, while being sanctimonious about how right you are, and constantly being proven wrong over time - seems loving bizarre. Why do it?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

They're not misleading and irrelevant just because you don't understand them and respond with anger when people try to explain.

Actually bro I wrote a big long post explaining why that chart is misleading, I suspect you either didn't read it or didn't understand it.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Actually bro I wrote a big long post explaining why that chart is misleading, I suspect you either didn't read it or didn't understand it.

But I didn't post that chart or say anything about it really so what was misleading and irrelevant about what I said wrt "bad investment / risky / no inherent value?"

e: I think you're wrong about the chart anyway because nothing you said explains the massive drop off within the same chart unless they switched what the X-axis denotes mid chart.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

The idea that people should be excluded from investing or warned away from it because it's fundamentally risky and you wouldn't touch it is what I take issue with.

The fact that this supposedly prudent advice is being proven wrong from the increase in volume and trading and price - gets simply dismissed as "NUMBER GO UP." Come on, that's simplistic. The number is going up because the acceptance and confidence is going up. Are you unaware of that or being cute?

This investment may be too risky for you. Assigning pejorative terms like gambling and mocking people who choose to use it, while being sanctimonious about how right you are, and constantly being proven wrong over time - seems loving bizarre. Why do it?

Dude you literally do not know what you are talking about lmao

quote:

Come on, that's simplistic. The number is going up because the acceptance and confidence is going up. Are you unaware of that or being cute?

Number goes up because of more confidence and more confidence because number goes up because of more confidence and then the number goes up even more...


... and then at some point someone realizes "hey, tulips aren't loving worth this much" and everyone left holding the bag is hosed.

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

But I didn't post that chart or say anything about it really so what was misleading and irrelevant about what I said wrt "bad investment / risky / no inherent value?"

The words I wrote out after the chart explained what was misleading and irrelevant about it. It takes a period where bitcoins were cheaper and there was high frequency trading in some exchanges in china. that got banned and so volume dropped hugely.

The thing is that activity was fake and an anomaly. It wasn't actually affecting the price of bitcoin.

After that activity stopped, in May, there has been 5 months where the valuation and total amt of money traded in Bitcoin has kept rising over time. That chart paints pretty much the complete opposite picture, so it's at odds with reality, and yet people keep posting it to laugh about Bitcoins.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

The words I wrote out after the chart explained what was misleading and irrelevant about it. It takes a period where bitcoins were cheaper and there was high frequency trading in some exchanges in china. that got banned and so volume dropped hugely.

The thing is that activity was fake and an anomaly. It wasn't actually affecting the price of bitcoin.

After that activity stopped, in May, there has been 5 months where the valuation and total amt of money traded in Bitcoin has kept rising over time. That chart paints pretty much the complete opposite picture, so it's at odds with reality, and yet people keep posting it to laugh about Bitcoins.

I mean frankly nothing you're saying inspires confidence in something I'd be considering putting thousands of dollars into you know?

If 90% of the trading volume on the NYSE was fake and an anomaly that'd be a Huge Problem. That's why there are regulatory bodies like the SEC.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


So what was actually going on, were the exchanges in China spoofing their trade histories?

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



COMRADES posted:

I mean frankly nothing you're saying inspires confidence in something I'd be considering putting thousands of dollars into you know?

If 90% of the trading volume on the NYSE was fake and an anomaly that'd be a Huge Problem.

Maybe we can try discussing one thing at a time.

Do you understand that if you pick a period where there was some weird stuff happening and you measure everything that happened before and after and go "HA HA HOW loving STRANGE" it looks really weird

but the thing is, it actually doesn't mean much if everything went back to normal after the weird activity and stayed that way for like 6 months. It means it was a blip, and the blip got dealt with, and the chart makes it seem like there's still a problem.

There are times where the HFT algorithms do massively increase trading volume on stocks btw!!! On the real stock market! It's normal.

Do you understand that? We're just talking about the chart here and why it's misleading. For comparison, here is an accurate chart:

Blade Runner
Aug 14, 2015



It's not a pejorative term; this is gambling. When investing in a company, for example, you are backing the productive ability of a company to produce things which will result in profit, thereby increasing the worth of your shares in that company. There is nothing here that is gaining worth, and no production to be had; it is, in a literal sense, completely imaginary money. This is similar to gambling in many ways, most primarily because someone must lose, which is not necessarily true in stocks due to profit produced by companies in exchange for their products. Nothing is being produced by Bitcoin, and no profit can be acquired from it; this is why inherent worth is so important. At some point, to liquidate your Bitcoin to USD, someone else must buy it, and it's impossible for that valuation to be accurate because nothing was used to produce the Bitcoin but a lot of wasted electricity; there are no assets to liquidate to pay out stockholders, no items being produced to increase the valuation of the company that Bitcoin represents. Perhaps you can make money on Bitcoin, but to do so, you would need to sell that Bitcoin to someone else who would now be stuck with it; eventually, nobody will be interested in purchasing the Bitcoin, at which point it becomes a worthless commodity. This is not an investment, it's a grown up(Well, college-aged.)game of loving hot potato.

And no, the fact of the matter is that people should indeed be told "It is a bad idea to invest in Bitcoin because it's immensely volatile." Many people don't know a ton about finances, and are indeed swayed by a number that is bigger than it was last year. Bitcoin is not a safe investment; and again, the fact that you can only fall back on "NUMBER GO UP" is the inherent issue; yes, sure, the number is bigger now. You need to consider and understand why that is, and it really is not because of acceptance or confidence; it's because Exchanges restricted cash withdrawals while allowing margin trading, essentially creating an 'alternate' USD that was only worth anything within the Exchange, but was still tracked alongside the normal worth of USD. This is something you need to comprehend before getting into investment.

I hope this effort post helps, but it likely will not

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009




Uranium 235 posted:

So what was actually going on, were the exchanges in China spoofing their trade histories?

Yes, it's called wash trading.

Bitfinex does it every time they need to bump up the price with the new tethers they printed.

When bitcoin dropped to $3k, they suddently found another $50m in their bank account and within a few hours there was 50,000 btc worth of trades and the price was back up to $3,600.

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005



COMRADES posted:

If 90% of the trading volume on the NYSE was fake and an anomaly that'd be a Huge Problem. That's why there are regulatory bodies like the SEC.
but comrades its a

Ham Sandwiches posted:

whole new financial system

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013


I have just bought ONE bitcoins thanks to this thread!

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


Ham Sandwiches posted:

Do you understand that if you pick a period where there was some weird stuff happening and you measure everything that happened before and after and go "HA HA HOW loving STRANGE" it looks really weird

Well but has there ever been a period where there wasn't some weird stuff happening with BTC?

Ham Sandwiches posted:

There are times where the HFT algorithms do massively increase trading volume on stocks btw!!! On the real stock market! It's normal.

Do you understand that? We're just talking about the chart here and why it's misleading. For comparison, here is an accurate chart:

HFT algorithms aren't fake and anomalous trades though so maybe I'm not getting what you're putting down correctly?

Although moot point I guess because looks like according to your chart the volumes are totally different from the other and to be quite honest I'm not going to spend the time to verify why they say what they do and I'll just take your argument at face value.


Powershift posted:

When bitcoin dropped to $3k, they suddently found another $50m in their bank account and within a few hours there was 50,000 btc worth of trades and the price was back up to $3,600.

Ok see now this is a big red flag if true though. This is a huge reason why penny stocks are garbage; one player can manipulate the price heavily.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN


gary oldmans diary posted:

but comrades its a

lol

Ham Sandwiches
Jul 7, 2000



Ok David I'll give you an effortpost reply to your efforpost but I will need a bit, please check back later tonight or tomorrow and we can continue arguing.

I'm going to take issue right now with your use of the word gambling. You strike me as a person that gives financial advice to people regularly, and that you use the term gambling to discourage them from investments you don't think are prudent.

What I'm curious about is why funds, hedge funds, and financial institutions have started using Bitcoins if it is gambling? These companies are not in the business of gambling so presumably if that's what they are doing, they are violating their fiduciary duty to their shareholders. Like, I'm not aware of the Fidelity CEO taking a few billion down to Vegas to invest in roulette and then posting those returns. I've never heard of such a thing, maybe you have some recent examples.

And yet Fidelity is straight up mining bitcoins
https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/f...yptocurrencies/

And there's real funds traded on real exchanges that track Bitcoin
http://www.investopedia.com/article...n-gbtc-arkw.asp

So clearly real companies with real executives and real people are allowed to speculate in currency, but if any regular person should consider, then it is Gambling and imprudent. I think it's bullshit that this double standard gets pushed on people with this sort of bizarre aim of protecting them from themselves, telling them to invest in their 401k, pay their taxes, brush their teeth and floss twice a day, remember to breathe, let it go, and all sorts of other lovely advice that people feel they need to give to the other idiots to save them from themselves.

And I'm telling you it is the height of bullshit to single out individuals for considering something while millionaires, hedge funds, countries, groups of investors all scramble to establish a position in it.

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Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS


Switchblade Switcharoo

Remember the cellphone vibrating off the sofa arm? Seems like yesterday.

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