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Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
agreed on thrangles

with exmond, basically two scenarios are likely:

A) he is innocent, but easy to frame. The real scum is counting on us to take mojo's death as "evidence" that exmond is scum.

B) Exmond is acting ridiculously suspicious in the hopes that we'll make assumption A.

While I can't "metagame" effectively, since both me and exmond are new to this, I think they are a very earnest person and their posting in this thread isn't out of the ordinary.

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Thranguy
Apr 21, 2010


Deceitful and black-hearted, perhaps we are. But we would never go against the Code. Well, perhaps for good reasons. But mostly never.
I'm dead sure Ty is town now. And 99% sure QPQ is. Other than that, I don't have any strong reads. If seb had survived he'd be my top suspect still.

My very weak read is that Muffin feels a bit suspicious to me. Didn't do much by way of reads, one could argue the b-minus lynch was inevitable by the time he joined it.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

what confuses me is that i did not see exmond as "threat numero one" until he posted a preemptive defense of himself for activities that didn't seem that suspicious

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

it is like a character on murder on the orient express screaming, "YEP, DEFINITELY HAVEN'T MURDERED ANYONE!" before getting interviewed by poirot

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
I would like to bring up this exchange:

yronic heroism posted:

Well you also never answered my above question about why you suspect Thranguy... so you can still answer that if you're claiming you were genuinely suspicious.

b-minus1 posted:

I mean I didn't like his early vote and that he's stayed utr for most of d1, and now he just seems to be waiting for any reason to jump on my or trexs wagon.

except....b-minus never actually mentioned any suspicion of thranguy before this, that I can see. I don't think they ever actually, officially suspected each other. My working hypothesis is that B-minus and thrangles were trying to play a low key game, hoping we'd tear each other apart with baseless mutual suspicion. Exmond is an easy frame, thus killing mojo.

Tyrannosaurus
Apr 12, 2006
Lol

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P


tell me what you think of the game, friend

anyone look suspicious atm?

Tyrannosaurus
Apr 12, 2006
We got either a jailkeeper and a backup or a cop and a doctor.

If there's a cop, the game is over. They should let us know who they've investigated. The doctor can quietly protect them. And the town will win once we've widdeled this down.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

b-minus1 posted:

Iím with you for the most part. I wouldnít call a second vote on a player a scum tell, especially this early in the game. HoweverÖ

I donít like your decision to add a fourth player, which spreads votes are spread even further. We now have four players each with a vote. Of course, me voting to lynch you would add a fifth player receiving votes. Itís possible that youíre scum and trying to take heat off your scum partners.

Iím going to ##T-rex for the moment, but I do not like Tranguyís early vote for T-rex. Joke votes are one thing, but itís time for some serious discussion. Now that T-rex is under pressure, let's see how both he and tranguy respond. They deserve the chance to defend themselves.

Here is the early accusation thrown at tranguy.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Fwiw I don't think minus1 was bussing other scum except for maybe t-rex (with the "gently caress you" vote being sincere annoyance if they were scum buddies), and I doubt that. I still feel exmond more than not.

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
Ah ok, I missed that. Hmmmm.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Tyrannosaurus posted:

If there's a cop, the game is over. They should let us know who they've investigated. The doctor can quietly protect them. And the town will win once we've widdeled this down.

This doesn't sound that foolproof to me unless they found scum.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!

yronic heroism posted:

This doesn't sound that foolproof to me unless they found scum.

Whats your math behind that? I think it would work until the doctor died?

Doctor protects cop, cop investigates the #2 suspicious person and the #1 suspicious person gets lynched.

Lets try the math here


Round B: 6 people under suspicion, cop declares who they are (7 total)
Round B Day: #1 suspicious person dead
Round B Night: #2 suspicious person investigated, Mafia kills person

Round C: 3 people under suspicion, cop declared (5 total)
Round C day: #1 suspicious person dead
Round C Night: #2 suspicious person investigated, mafia kills person

Round D: 0 people under suspicion (3 total)


This is assuming the mafia doesn't kill the person the cop tries to investigate


Also quoting this since I'd like an answer:

Exmond posted:

What can I do to give you the most information? Not defence but the most information.

I made my first post since uhh, it's kind of obvious with sebmojo dead that I would be under suspicion.

Tyrannosaurus
Apr 12, 2006
It cuts 7 down to five. Plus the doctor who can reveal themselves if poo poo goes bad which would take it down to four.

Even with a cop thats revealed, the mafia would still have to randomly guess and kill the doctor. Which gives the town at least two turns plus the cop revealing more people as safe or finding the last mafia.

Better than the mafia getting lucky and killing the cop by random chance.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!
Going with T-rex is a townie (Providing evidence on the cop theory)
QPQ is a townie (Convincing town to lynch day 1 and select bminus1)
Sitting here is a townie (defending me yay!)

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Absolutely not.

##vote: T-Rex

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Okay call me crazy here, but I suspect Exmond less now. The Mojo murder seems like a really obvious ploy to get us to turn on him -- we were all on edge about him, then the guy he was accusing immediately went down? It's too perfect.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
I'm still unhappy about the "doctor protect QPQ" thing but that tilts more heavily towards new player than scumtell.

Tyrannosaurus
Apr 12, 2006

QuoProQuid posted:

Absolutely not.

##vote: T-Rex

##vote QuoProQuid

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010

Tyrannosaurus posted:

##vote QuoProQuid
Gonna need to see more to back this up beyond "no gently caress u" because going after the person who successfully led us to our first mafia lynch seems suspicious as gently caress.

Thranguy
Apr 21, 2010


Deceitful and black-hearted, perhaps we are. But we would never go against the Code. Well, perhaps for good reasons. But mostly never.
I don't know what to believe anymore.

(Ty's logic looks wrong; no reason for the cop to speak up unless we're on the verge of lynching someone they know is town*. But not so wrong as to be obviously scum rather than newbie.)

*And there may be some counter-intuitive logic for not even then, but it's not obvious to me.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

I'm still unhappy about the "doctor protect QPQ" thing but that tilts more heavily towards new player than scumtell.

Are you prepared as I break down the whole "Cop" reveal strategy. I'm not good at writing but I am good at math and stuff. QPQ do you want to comment on this as I trust you the most.

Round A:
7 people left
6 under suspicion (Revealed: Cop)
#1 suspicious dies (UNLESS DOCTOR, GOTO BOTTOM)
Mafia kills rando
Cop reveal foobar


Round B: DOCTOR IS NOT KILLED
5 people left
3 under suspicion (Revealed: Cop, foobar)
Doctor reveals
2 under suspicion (Revealed: Cop,foobar,doctor)
#1 suspcious dies
Cop reveals faabar
Mafia kills doctor

3 people left
0 under suspicious (Revealed: Cop, foobar,faabar)


Round B: DOCTOR IS KILLED
5 people left
3 under suspicion (Revealed: cop, foobar)
#1 suspcious dies
Mafia kills cop

3 people left
2 under suspicion (Revealed: foobar)



Round A: DOCTOR FORCED TO REVEAL (IF doctor is about to die, go to this plan)
7 people left
5 under suspicion (Revealed: cop, doctor)
#1 suspicios dies
mafia kills doctor
cop reveals foobar

5 people left
3 under suspicios (Revealed: Cop,foobar)
#1 dies
Mafia kills cop

3 people left
2 under suspicions (Revealed: foobar)



Very interesting! Ill come up with stats if we are with a Town Roleblocker next

Sitting Here
Dec 31, 2007
I think muffin, QPQ, and yronic have seemed consistently town this whole time. hopefully me, too.

exmond is being a goofball but I think it's just newbishness

so p much at this point I've got my eye on thran and trex.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010

Exmond posted:

Are you prepared as I break down the whole "Cop" reveal strategy. I'm not good at writing but I am good at math and stuff. QPQ do you want to comment on this as I trust you the most.
It ... seems to check out? I am tremendously bad with numbers though. I think the biggest issue there is that the doctor is probably hosed -- if the town starts calling for a lynch they might have to reveal, and if they reveal they're dead. "Town lynches doctor" absolutely shatters that framework and then we're worse off than we were before: down a cop and a doctor.

Also just a heads up: it's the election IRL where I am today, and I've been working as a campaign intern, and it's been a loving slobberknocker. I'm playing goon D&D this afternoon, then I'm getting blackout drunk. I'll try to lynch-vote before the party starts (whether it's a WE WON party or a WE LOST LET'S ERASE THIS MEMORY WITH ALCOHOL party) but then I might disappear for some time into an abyss of red wine and weeping. I'll try to get all my suspicions etc on the page long before then.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

It ... seems to check out? I am tremendously bad with numbers though. I think the biggest issue there is that the doctor is probably hosed -- if the town starts calling for a lynch they might have to reveal, and if they reveal they're dead. "Town lynches doctor" absolutely shatters that framework and then we're worse off than we were before: down a cop and a doctor.

Also just a heads up: it's the election IRL where I am today, and I've been working as a campaign intern, and it's been a loving slobberknocker. I'm playing goon D&D this afternoon, then I'm getting blackout drunk. I'll try to lynch-vote before the party starts (whether it's a WE WON party or a WE LOST LET'S ERASE THIS MEMORY WITH ALCOHOL party) but then I might disappear for some time into an abyss of red wine and weeping. I'll try to get all my suspicions etc on the page long before then.

In the scenario i posted I pointed out the doctor should reveal if they are about to get lynched. We go down this path

Exmond posted:


Round A: DOCTOR FORCED TO REVEAL (IF doctor is about to die, go to this plan)
7 people left
5 under suspicion (Revealed: cop, doctor)
#1 suspicios dies
mafia kills doctor
cop reveals foobar

5 people left
3 under suspicios (Revealed: Cop,foobar)
#1 dies
Mafia kills cop

3 people left
2 under suspicions (Revealed: foobar)

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

There is no guarantee of there being a cop or a doctor

If there is a cop, there is no guarantee that he/she has useful information

If someone claims cop, there is no reason to trust them because scum could easily fake a claim

The set-up is built to stop an easy mass claim scenario

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

The best thing we can do is discuss the cases that have been made and try to deduct a solution from the information available. Relying on the set-up to save us is doomed to fail.

Tyrannosaurus
Apr 12, 2006
No, but if someone claims the cop erroneously then that means one of two things:

1) The real cop shows up. We now know its one of two people and we kill them sequentially. Town wins.
2) There is no real cop. We're playing with a jailkeeper who can reveal themselves. Town wins.

If the real cops claims and mafia fakeclaims jailkeeper, we still have it down to two people and we kill them sequentially. Town wins.

This only works because we managed to kill mafia on day 1

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!
Well, if two people claim to be cop you simply lynch one of them, then lynch the other one in the next round. Townies have no incentive to lie about their roles.

The way the math works out though, it looks like if there is a cop they should remain hidden and then reveal in round C. But we can discuss that in round C.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!
Also in my above scenario keep in mind we have a 1 in 6 chance of lynching the doctor, otherwise we go down this route:


Exmond posted:

Are you prepared as I break down the whole "Cop" reveal strategy. I'm not good at writing but I am good at math and stuff. QPQ do you want to comment on this as I trust you the most.

Round A:
7 people left
6 under suspicion (Revealed: Cop)
#1 suspicious dies (UNLESS DOCTOR, GOTO BOTTOM)
Mafia kills rando
Cop reveal foobar


Round B: DOCTOR IS NOT KILLED
5 people left
3 under suspicion (Revealed: Cop, foobar)
Doctor reveals
2 under suspicion (Revealed: Cop,foobar,doctor)
#1 suspcious dies
Cop reveals faabar
Mafia kills doctor

3 people left
0 under suspicious (Revealed: Cop, foobar,faabar)

If we go down any other route we are left with the 3 people left, 2 under suspicion route.


I have to go to a meeting, does someone want to discuss Round C if the cop reveals?

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010

Tyrannosaurus posted:


2) There is no real cop. We're playing with a jailkeeper who can reveal themselves. Town wins.
Uh, what? Why would we win if we had a jailkeeper?

Thranguy
Apr 21, 2010


Deceitful and black-hearted, perhaps we are. But we would never go against the Code. Well, perhaps for good reasons. But mostly never.
The scenario was after someone claimed cop, which would be a fake claim and thus scum.

'Course, mafia aren't going to fake claim on any day but the last, so sort of moot. If we have a jailkeeper nobody should say anything.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Right, sorry. Will get coffee and come back with a less fuzzy brain.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

b-minus1 posted:


I donít like your decision to add a fourth player, which spreads votes are spread even further. We now have four players each with a vote. Of course, me voting to lynch you would add a fifth player receiving votes. Itís possible that youíre scum and trying to take heat off your scum partners.

Iím going to ##T-rex for the moment, but I do not like Tranguyís early vote for T-rex. Joke votes are one thing, but itís time for some serious discussion. Now that T-rex is under pressure, let's see how both he and tranguy respond. They deserve the chance to defend themselves.

One of the things I keep coming back to is how minus1 focused on this, effectively redirecting the conversation back towards me and T. rex. Of course rex isn't really doing himself any favors right now with his QPQ vote but that could be disinterested town play as well.

Personally I still prefer to vote for exmond because of the above.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

SCENARIO A: There is a cop and a doctor

- The cop claims his role, but has not found any scum. The town has no way of verifying this information. The scum, knowing that the cop will be protected and that his information will be verified if killed, looks for the doctor. Either the cop finds the scum before LYLO or people begin asking why the alleged cop keeps finding townies and eventually decide to kill the cop.

SCENARIO B: There is a jailkeeper and a universal backup

- Scum waits until everyone has had a chance to claim and, seeing no activity, announces that (s)he is, in fact, the cop. The town has no way of verifying this information. The scum, now suspecting that there is a jailkeeper and a universal backup, goes hunting for them. Either the scum keeps stringing the town along with fake investigations or the town loses patience and kills the fake cop, a la SCENARIO A.

or

- The scum says nothing and waits for the other powerroles to reveal themselves. (S)he then goes about eliminating the jailkeeper, followed by the back-up. The town ends up losing its power roles as it twiddles its thumbs.

SCENARIO C: There is any set-up and the power roles decide not to claim for [reasons]

- The town remains where it started, except that it wasted a bunch of time trying to game the moderator.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

QuoProQuid posted:

SCENARIO B: There is a jailkeeper and a universal backup

- Scum waits until everyone has had a chance to claim and, seeing no activity, announces that (s)he is, in fact, the cop. The town has no way of verifying this information. The scum, now suspecting that there is a jailkeeper and a universal backup, goes hunting for them. Either the scum keeps stringing the town along with fake investigations or the town loses patience and kills the fake cop, a la SCENARIO A.

I guess this scenario doesn't work because the existence of a jailkeeper would tell the jailkeeper that there is no cop. I suppose that, at best, the scum could hold off for one day while the town eliminates the "jailkeeper." They could then try to talk out of the scenario

Obviously, that assumes that the jailkeeper is willing to claim, which, again, there is no guarantee of.

Thranguy
Apr 21, 2010


Deceitful and black-hearted, perhaps we are. But we would never go against the Code. Well, perhaps for good reasons. But mostly never.
If any scum fake-claims, the real role can counterclaim and town wins in two. (Same if scum fake-counterclaims). Scum knows this, so will only fake-claim if they're dummies too.

So an uncountered claim can be fully trusted at this point, which means the cop can tell the entire town who's innocent, lowering chances of off-lynches.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

If we have a cop and the cop investigated and found scum, yeah absolutely claim today.

If cop found town then all they can do today is clear one person, who also is then a scum target.

One other thing I thought of is if there is a cop they probably investigated one of our more scummy seeming folks, so ex, tyr, or tran. If no one comes forward to claim it reduces the chances scum is to be found in that group. Obviously we don't know which of those three cop might have looked at, but just a mathematical thing to keep in mind.

Exmond
May 31, 2007

Writing is fun!
Cop should not reveal. I forgot scenario where mafia luckily kills the same person the cop investigated. Basically if cop reveals we roll 3 dice. If any of the dice are a 6 we lose out.

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yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Exmond posted:

Cop should not reveal. I forgot scenario where mafia luckily kills the same person the cop investigated. Basically if cop reveals we roll 3 dice. If any of the dice are a 6 we lose out.

You're making this hard on me because your reasoning is pro-town and tyr's was scummier. Of course anyone can post objective math/logic. So I agree we should get back to cases.

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