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GenericGirlName
Apr 10, 2012

Why did you post that?


I hope someone can double check my math here, but it looks like Sal is either scum or random. If we knew for a fact that Sal was random I think it would give us enough information to figure out lies/who scum can be (Scum who performs the night kill have to lie and throw off the contrarian results if all other factors are known). Except if whoever is random also lied about their results (). Obviously the other alternative is that we've killed Sal and Sal turned out to be scum. I'm hesitant to actually vote/firmly suggest this though because if my math is wrong and Sal can be contrarian as well that doesn't look as good.

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SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

At this point I have to be random or contrarian. Normally I wouldn't advocate for this but if you think my cuddle can help solve the game I'm fine with that.

votefinder
Jul 6, 2010

scoop scoop


Votecount for Day 3



Not Voting (7): Anomalous Amalgam, b-minus1, GenericGirlName, Hal Incandenza, Nep-Nep, SalTheBard, spacing in vienna

With 7 alive, it's 4 votes to execute. There is currently no deadline set.

Nep-Nep
May 15, 2004

Shedding those useless arms and legs to go EVEN FASTER!



don't vote shame us votefinder

Hal Insandenza
Feb 12, 2004




Random cop is greatest cop

AA or SiV, both good votes

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Alright here is the deal. I've been staring at this motherfucking spreadsheet for too long. I'm either Random or Contrarian, those are the only 2 I could be. I have a plan tonight to determine it.

So looking at D1 we know that Humalong as bandwagon got a scum result on me, but looking at the claims thats not possible since according to claims it's 5 scum results to 6 town, bandwagon should've copped me as town then. Going off that I think any of the people that claimed Town are mostly likely to be liars.

On N0 Hal copped AA as town
SiV / Clord copped Krell as town
I copped Byers as town
AA copped B- as town
Lumped copped Hal

AND HOLY gently caress I just realized that if Lumpen copped Hal as town and and B- also copped Hal that clears B-. So on D2 someone is loving lying about not visiting B- because Lumpen copped B- as scum and I don't think there is any way thats possible. The fact that B- got visited by scum but not killed makes me think B- has a totally worthless investigation role because why wasn't he killed on n2? I think B- is the Random cop, which would make me the Contrarian cop.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

SalTheBard posted:

So on D2 someone is loving lying about not visiting B- because Lumpen copped B- as scum and I don't think there is any way thats possible.

I wanted to clarify here: We know from the OP that if scum have never visited a person then they return town. AA did visit B- on N0 and then B- copped scum to Lumpen. I will ##vote AA

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Jesus if AA flips scum I'm going to feel like Mr. Smarty man, if AA flips town then I don't know what the gently caress.

GenericGirlName
Apr 10, 2012

Why did you post that?


Are you taking into account that we know Krell lied both days?

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

GenericGirlName posted:

Are you taking into account that we know Krell lied both days?

Yes, I already changed it on my spreadsheet.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Even with Krell lying I don't think Lumpen would lie and his results are clear:

N0 - Copped Hal who came back town. B- also copped Hal that night so to me that clears B- 100% as town

N1 - Copped B- who came back scum. On N0 AA visited B- to cop him. According to the OP if Scum visit a town player at any point they come back scum.

This would mean AA has to be scum OR someone visited AA on N1 and is lying about it. I think though that the easiest answer is AA is scum

spacing in vienna
Jan 4, 2007

people they want us to fall down
but we won't ever touch the ground
we're perfectly balanced, we float around
til no one is here, do you hear the sound?




Lipstick Apathy

SalTheBard posted:

I wanted to clarify here: We know from the OP that if scum have never visited a person then they return town. AA did visit B- on N0 and then B- copped scum to Lumpen. I will ##vote AA

Wait, isn't this assuming scum are telling the truth about their targets, if not results?

E.g. Hal claimed to target AA n0, but scum Hal could have actually rolecopped b-.

AA is the only person to claim having targeted b-, but not necessarily the only one who did. Or am I missing something?

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

spacing in vienna posted:

Wait, isn't this assuming scum are telling the truth about their targets, if not results?

E.g. Hal claimed to target AA n0, but scum Hal could have actually rolecopped b-.

AA is the only person to claim having targeted b-, but not necessarily the only one who did. Or am I missing something?

That is true. AA is the only person that has publicly admitted to copping B- (if nobody is lying). It also makes sense to me that B- (a player I think is very good) would be copped early by scum. Of course I could be biased.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Anyone else have any thoughts or opinions?

Nep-Nep
May 15, 2004

Shedding those useless arms and legs to go EVEN FASTER!



I think AA seems a good vote but don't need to rush it. I'm in an airport waiting on a flight and haven't slept so let me get to my destination, get a nice amount of sleep and then I'll have a real look at this

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo


Doctor Rope

Nep if you think you're insane, then that lends credence to the likelihood that B- and myself are contrarian and random.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo


Doctor Rope

Hmmm

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013

by Cyrano4747


Toilet Rascal

MODNOTE: I don't see the need for a deadline yet. If discussion starts to taper down, I'll establish one for later in the week.

Good luck and feel free to scream more about the random/contrarian cop.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before


Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Nep if you think you're insane, then that lends credence to the likelihood that B- and myself are contrarian and random.

If I am contrarian, you are random and nep nep is insane, then who is scum?

Hal says he believes he is naive. Who else besides Hal could be naive?

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Nep if you think you're insane, then that lends credence to the likelihood that B- and myself are contrarian and random.

Granted Mafia is a game of lies so whatever. I'm town and I haven't lied about my alignment or investigations. I've investigated known town twice and got town. Byers is the sane cop so I know that's not me, that only leaves 2 options for me:. Random or contrarian.

If you think it's you and B- I would strongly encourage that one of the 3 of us go.

GenericGirlName
Apr 10, 2012

Why did you post that?


b-minus1 posted:

If I am contrarian, you are random and nep nep is insane, then who is scum?

Hal says he believes he is naive. Who else besides Hal could be naive?

SiV can be naive. So in the contrarian/random AA/B- scenario, scum team = (SiV OR Hal) and Sal

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before


Also I am slightly worried that nep nep is scum and fakeclaiming insane cop to protect AA. Yesterday I was fairly certain that I was insane cop and was willing to sacrifice myself in order to nail scum. Because If I actually am insane cop, then my results clear Hal and nail AA. Just something to keep in mind

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before


GenericGirlName posted:

SiV can be naive. So in the contrarian/random AA/B- scenario, scum team = (SiV OR Hal) and Sal

Thanks. I suppose naive cop would be a logical fakeclaim for scum

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

b-minus1 posted:

Also I am slightly worried that nep nep is scum and fakeclaiming insane cop to protect AA. Yesterday I was fairly certain that I was insane cop and was willing to sacrifice myself in order to nail scum. Because If I actually am insane cop, then my results clear Hal and nail AA. Just something to keep in mind

You are cleared town to me so yeah I'm on board with AA.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo


Doctor Rope

If it can help find or identify scum, then so be it, but I think it would be most prudent to get someone with a scum result across multiple days.

SiV and then Sal imo.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

If it can help find or identify scum, then so be it, but I think it would be most prudent to get someone with a scum result across multiple days.

SiV and then Sal imo.

Why me?

GenericGirlName
Apr 10, 2012

Why did you post that?


again with the "scum result across multiple days" thing in a game where the person who actually can tell you if someone is scum died N1 wtf

GenericGirlName
Apr 10, 2012

Why did you post that?


Like you know what, yea lets get the flip on AA and find out more info for the spreadsheets. At the very least we wont have the selfprofessed person who doesn't want to look at spreadsheets or read posts.

Also:

b-minus1 posted:

Also I am slightly worried that nep nep is scum and fakeclaiming insane cop to protect AA.
Isn't the worst idea since nothing makes sense in this game!

##vote AA

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo


Doctor Rope

GenericGirlName posted:

again with the "scum result across multiple days" thing in a game where the person who actually can tell you if someone is scum died N1 wtf

You're being obtuse though, we've narrowed most of the rolls to what's likely, and if random insane and contrarian are between me bee and nep that means that the claimed results on clord and SiV are probably accurate.

But you do you. You'll get needed info from any flip, so do what you must, I'd just rather lunch likely scum.

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo


Doctor Rope

GenericGirlName posted:

Like you know what, yea lets get the flip on AA and find out more info for the spreadsheets. At the very least we wont have the selfprofessed person who doesn't want to look at spreadsheets or read posts.

Also:

Isn't the worst idea since nothing makes sense in this game!

##vote AA

Your take of me is outdated and grossly inaccurate are you scum taking this push as opportunity because your reasoning seems contrived.

GenericGirlName
Apr 10, 2012

Why did you post that?


explain to me how "people probably aren't lying about targeting SiV" means "The scum results on them are true"? I also don't see how this can accurately implicate them as scum because scum can target each other and just be honest about it in the thread.

How does thread consensus of targeting specific players when that was publically agreed upon by town accurately indicate alignment?


Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Your take of me is outdated and grossly inaccurate are you scum taking this push as opportunity because your reasoning seems contrived.

Its wild to say my stance is a push and contrived when you suggested I target SiV

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Hmm... I see it, and this is testable. You can target either your N0/N1 targs to see if you get a diff result tomorrow, provided ofc, you aren't lying and scum. Still... 2 scum results.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

If it can help find or identify scum, then so be it, but I think it would be most prudent to get someone with a scum result across multiple days.

SiV and then Sal imo.

I know you are sort of locked in to your battle with GGN so please don't feel like I'm ganging up on you. Why do you think I'm scum?

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before


alright, let's say we lunch nep-nep and he flips insane cop. That would mean chaoslord/siv is cleared as town, and then Hal is likely scum. Also, that would mean that I'm the random cop, and my results on Hal and AA are worthless. The only other town role Hal could be (I think) is random cop that happened to hit town with each coin flip.

If we lunch nep-nep and he flips random cop, then I could be insane cop. My results would indicate that Hal is town and AA is scum. Alternatively, I could be contrarian cop and my results would be worthless.

If nep-nep flips scum, then I could still be random, insane, or contrarian and AA could be random or scum. Contrarian is ruled out (I think) because he received a scum result last night.

Let me know if any of this is incorrect - I wish I had access to lumpen's spreadsheet

Also, I need to go back and check how exactly this was proven, but apparently someone's results indicated that scum visited me early in the game (n0 I think).

Anomalous Amalgam
Feb 13, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo


Doctor Rope

GenericGirlName posted:

explain to me how "people probably aren't lying about targeting SiV" means "The scum results on them are true"? I also don't see how this can accurately implicate them as scum because scum can target each other and just be honest about it in the thread.

How does thread consensus of targeting specific players when that was publically agreed upon by town accurately indicate alignment?


Its wild to say my stance is a push and contrived when you suggested I target SiV




SalTheBard posted:

After consecutive then results on Byers I got scum on SiV. This is 3rd straight scum result for Clord / SiV

This is largely a part of it. Multiple players, multiple nights. Even with cop fuckery we have cornered in several of the roles and corroborated some via flips.

Also I dont really understand your argument right now. Honestly if any one does and can clear it up, I'd appreciate it.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Also I dont really understand your argument right now. Honestly if any one does and can clear it up, I'd appreciate it.

We know 100%, irrefutably that Lumpen is the residue cop. Per the OP:
1 Residue Cop, who returns scum results if scum have ever targeted that person. If scum have never targeted that person, returns a town result.

So going off of claimed results from Lumpen

N0 - Copped Hal who came back town. B- also copped Hal that night so to me that clears B- 100% as town. We know this because if any scum player had visited Hal, Hal would've copped scum.

N1 - Copped B- who came back scum. On N0 AA visited B- to cop him. According to the OP if Scum visit a town player at any point they come back scum.

This would mean AA has to be scum OR someone visited B- on N1 and is lying about it. I think though that the easiest answer is that AA is a scum player who Rolecopped B- on N0.

spacing in vienna
Jan 4, 2007

people they want us to fall down
but we won't ever touch the ground
we're perfectly balanced, we float around
til no one is here, do you hear the sound?




Lipstick Apathy

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

This is largely a part of it. Multiple players, multiple nights. Even with cop fuckery we have cornered in several of the roles and corroborated some via flips.

Also I dont really understand your argument right now. Honestly if any one does and can clear it up, I'd appreciate it.

I don't actually believe that you're not following this. I feel like you're caught scum, flailing to find any other possible target.

I'm really tempted to say the hell with the spreadsheets and start working up cases mafia-style but if everyone else is playing this as a logic puzzle, that might come off more distracting than anything else.

Not voting since we don't have a deadline and there are a couple of votes already but I think it's you.

b-minus1
Jul 24, 2008

She's a maniac, maniac
on the floor
And she's dancing like she's never danced before


SalTheBard posted:

We know 100%, irrefutably that Lumpen is the residue cop. Per the OP:
1 Residue Cop, who returns scum results if scum have ever targeted that person. If scum have never targeted that person, returns a town result.

So going off of claimed results from Lumpen

N0 - Copped Hal who came back town. B- also copped Hal that night so to me that clears B- 100% as town. We know this because if any scum player had visited Hal, Hal would've copped scum.

N1 - Copped B- who came back scum. On N0 AA visited B- to cop him. According to the OP if Scum visit a town player at any point they come back scum.

This would mean AA has to be scum OR someone visited B- on N1 and is lying about it. I think though that the easiest answer is that AA is a scum player who Rolecopped B- on N0.

All excellent points.

Would vote AA but that would but him at -1. Will vote when we decide we are ready to move on

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

spacing in vienna posted:

I'm really tempted to say the hell with the spreadsheets and start working up cases mafia-style but if everyone else is playing this as a logic puzzle, that might come off more distracting than anything else.

I say case away.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005


I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!




Fallen Rib

Anomalous Amalgam posted:

Also I dont really understand your argument right now. Honestly if any one does and can clear it up, I'd appreciate it.

I don't have my spreadsheet in front of me, but basically her argument is that assuming I'm random or contrarian (which are the only 2 I can be) then my scum result on her is a null tell at best. Nep-Nep is potentially the paranoid cop so they would cop everyone as scum, and GGN is Binary so copped scum on the first day. Basically 2 out of the 3 scum results are worthless.

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spacing in vienna
Jan 4, 2007

people they want us to fall down
but we won't ever touch the ground
we're perfectly balanced, we float around
til no one is here, do you hear the sound?




Lipstick Apathy

SalTheBard posted:

I say case away.

Okay, yeah, I think that will help me get my head clear. I'm actually headed in to an afternoon shift at work but I'm going to do that tonight.

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