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BabyFur Denny
Mar 18, 2003


Flayer posted:

Scotland will qualify if they beat Japan regardless of the Ireland result with the exception that Japan lose and pick up both bonus points so if the match is cancelled the real beneficiaries would be Japan who would then be guaranteed progress.
That's not true, is it? Assuming a comfortable win with bp against Russia, Scotland will be four points behind Japan ahead of their match, so in order to go ahead they

a) need to win and make sure Japan doesn't get a bonus point or

b) they need to win and get as least as many bonus points as Japan

If Scotland doesn't put 20+ points on Russia, then they additionally would need to win sufficiently high against Japan to get past them.

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harperdc
Jul 24, 2007




What's the tiebreakers if they're tied? Point differential is majorly weighed toward Japan right now but Scotland still has Russia to snack on to make some distance up. They may need to drop 50+ on Russia in order to make the Japan game more plausible.

Japan getting the bonus point against Samoa may be a decider after all.

BabyFur Denny
Mar 18, 2003


I just looked it up:

quote:

The winner of the Match in which the two tied Teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most points in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
The Team which has scored most tries in all its pool Matches shall be the higher ranked.
Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the rankings as per the updated. Official World Rugby World Rankings on October 14, 2019 will determine the higher ranked Team.
so the points differential is largely irrelevant, if Scotland beats Japan it depends on whether Japan gets one bonus point more than Scotland or not. So that BP against Samoa can indeed be very crucial. And Ireland is through with a BP win against Samoa.
The points difference is only important if all three teams end up at 15 pts.

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

Enjoyment and excitement



Buglord

Assuming Scotland get a 5 point win over Russia

If Ireland beat Samoa and get a bonus point then if:
Scotland beat Japan and get at least as many bonus points as Japan then Scotland go through on head-to-head over Japan
Scotland beat Japan but Japan get more bonus points than Scotland then Japan go through on points in second place behind Ireland (Japan will even win the group in the case of a double bonus point loss)
Any win or a draw for Japan sends them through as group winners with Ireland in second place

If the Ireland-Samoa match is abandoned as a 0-0 draw then if:
Scotland win by any means they go through and Ireland are eliminated
Japan wins by any means then Scotland are out
A draw puts Japan and Ireland through (even in the case of Scotland getting a bonus point draw as Ireland win on head-to-head)

If Ireland beat Samoa but don't get a bonus point then if:
Scotland get a bonus point win over Japan but Japan also get a bonus point then it comes down to a score difference as all teams will have 15 points and 1 win and 1 defeat vs the other teams
Scotland win and Japan get no bonus points then Japan are eliminated
Scotland beat Japan but Japan get more bonus points than Scotland then Scotland are eliminated and Japan win the group
A draw eliminates Scotland and Japan go through as group winners
Any Japan win and Scotland are out

I reckon...

Tyma
Dec 22, 2004

Chwyldro Dawnsio Dawns


That's a good effort-post, but here's the problem...

Flayer posted:

Assuming Scotland get a 5 point win over Russia

bessantj
Jul 27, 2004




Tyma posted:

That's a good effort-post, but here's the problem...

I don't think they'll have problem doing that even if it only end up 26-0 or something.

Vaders Jester
Sep 9, 2009

Welcome to fucking Scotland.




If Scotland don't put Russia away with 4+ tries, they never deserved to get to the QF anyway.

That said, if Scotland want to absolutely poo poo the bed and make Ireland face NZ in the QF, that'd be funny as it sets up the Japan - SA 2015 grudge match.

sephiRoth IRA
Jun 13, 2007

"Science is not only compatible with spirituality; it is a profound source of spirituality."

-Carl Sagan


Vaders Jester posted:

If Scotland don't put Russia away with 4+ tries, they never deserved to get to the QF anyway.

This. I donít anticipate there being an issue with this, but Scotland has an absolute tough Japan side (with momentum and home field advantage) to face in what is essentially an early KO match. If Scotland hasnít given themselves every possible advantage in the way of pool points then I donít see them closing the deal. My gut is a Japan Ireland top two.

If that is the case, does Japan play SA? My math is bad.

oh no computer
May 27, 2003



If Japan top the group, the only way they wouldn't play SA would be if Italy beat NZ

So yeah they'd play SA.

sephiRoth IRA
Jun 13, 2007

"Science is not only compatible with spirituality; it is a profound source of spirituality."

-Carl Sagan


oh no computer posted:

If Japan top the group, the only way they wouldn't play SA would be if Italy beat NZ

So yeah they'd play SA.

Hell yeah

Vaders Jester
Sep 9, 2009

Welcome to fucking Scotland.




If/when Scotland go out, we'll miss out on Gordon Reid's excellently honest interviews.

https://twitter.com/ITVRugby/status/1181219414873645059

Madkal
Feb 11, 2008

It was all going well, and then the parademons showed up


Fallen Rib

oh no computer posted:

If Japan top the group, the only way they wouldn't play SA would be if Italy beat NZ

So yeah they'd play SA.

Time for some revenge!

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




I remember when Canada used to be good at the rugby.

Madkal
Feb 11, 2008

It was all going well, and then the parademons showed up


Fallen Rib

Furnaceface posted:

I remember when Canada used to be good at the rugby.

Two world cups ago they were actually fun to watch. That was mostly due to their beards though

Vagabundo
Mar 20, 2007

Donncha wish your girlfriend was hot like me?
Donncha wish your girlfriend was a freak like me?


Furnaceface posted:

I remember when Canada used to be good at the rugby.

Squidge did a good video looking at it, but it comes down to glorified beancounters with little knowledge or passion for the game being put in charge of the sport, looking to cut corners and pinching the pennies so hard that QEII screams. I think the backroom staff of the Canadian national team, which is a barebones effort if there ever was one, best exemplifies it:

Kingsley Jones - Head Coach
Henry Paul - Assistant Coach
Alana Gattinger - Team Manager
Michael Deasy - Strength and Conditioning
Mallory White - Physiotherapist

And that's all that's listed on their website.

Compare that to a team that currently occupies the space they did back in the mid-90s~2005 (the year Canada last registered a win against a Tier 1 team. In this case, it was Argentina, touring in Canada): Japan (this, once again, is what's listed on their website)

Yuichiro Fuji - High Performance Director
Jamie Joseph - Head Coach
Tony Brown - Attack Coach
Scott Hansen - Defence Coach
Shin Hasegawa - Scrum Coach
Simon Jones - Stregth and Conditioning coach
Chihiro Ota - Strength and Conditioning coach
David Galbraith - Mental Coach
Sohei Takamori - Team Doctor
Karl McDonald - Performance Coordinator
Hidenori Izawa - Physiotherapist
Junnosuke Aono - Trainer
Shumpei Hamano - Analyst
Andrew Watts - Analyst
Takashi Toda - Analyst
Hedenori Sato - Interpreter
Takenori Omura - Team Manager
Yumiko Sasabayashi - Assistant (not sure whom she's assistant to, but I assume it's Omura)
Randle Yamamuro - Baggage Master
Hiroyuki Yabuki - Media Manager

Or Ireland, who were the most recent non-NZ team to be ranked no. 1 in the World Rugby rankings
Joe Schmidt - Head Coach
Paul Dean - Team Manager
Simon Easterby - Forwards Coach
Andy Farrell - Defence Coach
Greg Feek - Scrum Coach
Richie Murphy - Kicking Coach
Jason Cowman - Strength and Conditioning Coach
Mervyn Murphy - Technical Analyst
Ciaran Cosgrave - Team Doctor
Ruth Wood-Martin - IRFU Performance Nutritionist
Keith Fox - Physiotherapist
Colm Fuller - Physiotherapist
David Revins - Masseur
Willy Bennett - Masseur
John Moran - Kit and Logistic Coordinator
Vinny Hammond - High Performance Analyst
David O'Siochain - Media and Communications Officer
Gerard Carmody - Head of Operations
Sinead Bennett - Team Services


There are also significant structural issues to the game in Canada, which has meant that they've struggled (and failed) to retain a huge bulk of their age group players. End result is that the Canadian team has to rely on the odd individual that is able to break through to Europe or Super Rugby (DTH van der Merwe, Matt Tierney and Tyler Ardron in the current squad).

The recent plus though, is that a sizeable portion of their team now play professionally in the USA-based Major League Rugby, which has included a Canada-based team, the Toronto Arrows.

Vagabundo fucked around with this message at 06:04 on Oct 8, 2019

Kitchner
Nov 9, 2012

IT CAN'T BE BARGAINED WITH.
IT CAN'T BE REASONED WITH.
IT DOESN'T FEEL PITY, OR REMORSE, OR FEAR.
AND IT ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT STOP, EVER, UNTIL YOU ADMIT YOU'RE WRONG ABOUT WARHAMMER


Clapping Larry

The fact that Japan has a "Mental Coach" and Ireland has two masseuses is probably why Japan beat them.

bessantj
Jul 27, 2004




Making Kingsley Jones your head coach has to be the worst move. The man actively made the Dragons worse and nobody thought that was possible at the time.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017



Wish I was a Baggage Master, sounds like a cool job.

Vagabundo
Mar 20, 2007

Donncha wish your girlfriend was hot like me?
Donncha wish your girlfriend was a freak like me?


Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Wish I was a Baggage Master, sounds like a cool job.

Physical baggage or emotional baggage?

BabyFur Denny
Mar 18, 2003


France realised their world cup campaign was going too well so far: https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/r...xing-of-captain

tarbrush
Feb 7, 2011

But Schefter said they Love Herbert?!


South Africa are not feeling merciful

tarbrush
Feb 7, 2011

But Schefter said they Love Herbert?!


It's now 33-0 after 20 minutes. They could get three figure here.

Mister Chief
Jun 6, 2011



Whatís the quickest hat trick ever?

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

Enjoyment and excitement



Buglord

This is brutal to watch. Not sure if South Africa will even ease off considering there next game is 11 days away.

Vagabundo
Mar 20, 2007

Donncha wish your girlfriend was hot like me?
Donncha wish your girlfriend was a freak like me?


BabyFur Denny posted:

France realised their world cup campaign was going too well so far: https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/r...xing-of-captain

Not surprising, to be honest. They've been quite inconsistent within the games themselves - often starting strong but then fading after 20 to 30 minutes, before switching back on near the end.

I guess this means they're finally going to win a title, after a 4th go at winning a final.

HappyCamperGL
May 18, 2014



What's the record score at a RWC, still NZ versus Japan by 150 odd? Could be beaten today.

oh no computer
May 27, 2003



Well that's Canada well and truly hosed then.

lenoon
Jan 7, 2010



Well if they werenít hosed before....

Edit: as soon as he went in I thought thatís going to be him off

bessantj
Jul 27, 2004




HappyCamperGL posted:

What's the record score at a RWC, still NZ versus Japan by 150 odd? Could be beaten today.

Isn't it Australia 142-0 over Namibia?


Luckily, having coached the Dragons, Jones will know what to say to Canada here. It's not going to be good and will not help in any way whatsoever, but he will know what to say.

tarbrush
Feb 7, 2011

But Schefter said they Love Herbert?!


The only possible Canadian response here is a 99 call

Aramoro
Jun 1, 2012






Firing their coach mid tourney is just the French way of powering up. The player are behind Guirado so it seems madness to go with Poirot as captain. Camille Chat put is a great shift against Tonga but the french scrum was just much much better after Guirado came on.

stavros880
May 1, 2005
I like monkeys

Craig Doyle: "Kingsley Jones has managed some huge teams"
Me, checking Wikipedia: "Hmmm.... Doncaster, Sale, Russia, London Welsh, Dragons, Canada"

Aramoro
Jun 1, 2012






bessantj posted:

Making Kingsley Jones your head coach has to be the worst move. The man actively made the Dragons worse and nobody thought that was possible at the time.

Say what you like about Kingsley Jones but.....I've got nothing, just say what you like.

bessantj
Jul 27, 2004




stavros880 posted:

Craig Doyle: "Kingsley Jones has managed some huge teams"
Me, checking Wikipedia: "Hmmm.... Doncaster, Sale, Russia, London Welsh, Dragons, Canada"

He did do well with Sale.

oh no computer
May 27, 2003



bessantj posted:


Luckily, having coached the Dragons, Jones will know what to say to Canada here.
This but.........unironically???

Aramoro
Jun 1, 2012






Canada fightback starts here.

tarbrush
Feb 7, 2011

But Schefter said they Love Herbert?!


Canada have at least come out fired up for the second half, and that's a nice try.

tarbrush
Feb 7, 2011

But Schefter said they Love Herbert?!


Nice sympathy call from the ref there.

bessantj
Jul 27, 2004




oh no computer posted:

This but.........unironically???

My rugby thread posting career will not survive this.

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Vagabundo
Mar 20, 2007

Donncha wish your girlfriend was hot like me?
Donncha wish your girlfriend was a freak like me?


bessantj posted:

Isn't it Australia 142-0 over Namibia?

That's the biggest winning margin. The highest score is still the 145 posted by the All Blacks against Japan back in 1995.

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