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girl dick energy
Sep 30, 2009

You think you have the wherewithal to figure out my puzzle vagina?


MarquiseMindfang posted:

Kind of want to play the whole game from Sou's (clearly paranoid and/or extremely anxious) perspective now. Where Sara is a hideous monster who friendship-no-jutsus everyone into being her pawns.
That WOULD be a terrifying antagonist. Not someone with mind control powers, but someone who makes people want to join them by sheer force of personality. (Minions/redshirts/goons don't count.)

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Onmi
Jul 12, 2013

If someone says it one more time I'm having Florina show up as a corpse. I'm not even kidding, I was pissed off with people doing that shit back in 2010, and I'm not dealing with it now in 2016.


So... Sou shredded the original percentage papers? Which makes me think the percentage papers were in his Trial? If so, that's a pretty big mind gently caress off the bat if he's, as it's likely he is, Shin. "Hey there, it's a death game, your chance of winning is 0%"

Onmi fucked around with this message at 05:26 on Apr 21, 2020

Jadecore
Mar 10, 2018

They say money can't buy happiness, but it sure does help.

Onmi posted:

So... Sou shredded the original percentage papers? Which makes me think the percentage papers were in his Trial? If so, that's a pretty big mind gently caress off the bat if he's, as it's likely he is, Shin. "Hey there, it's a death game, your chance of winning is 0%"

And in addition to seeing his own odds, he gets to see the top contender.

What sort of horrifying entity must this stranger be that they could so outclass everyone else in the death game in survival rate? What must their nature be?

Tenebrais
Sep 2, 2011



We're still only assuming the percentages are their chances of winning.

They could just as easily be, say, their likelihood of murdering someone.

Elfface
Nov 14, 2010

Da-na-na-na-na-na-na
IRON JONAH

It's just budget allocations. Sara was a nightmare to kidnap, Sou tripped and fell into an unmarked van.

girl dick energy
Sep 30, 2009

You think you have the wherewithal to figure out my puzzle vagina?


It's how much damage they had at the end of the match the last time they all played Smash Bros.

girl dick energy fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Apr 21, 2020

limeicebreakers
May 1, 2017





0.0% of Shin Tsukimis were harmed during the course of this death game.

Heavy neutrino
Sep 16, 2007

You made a fine post for yourself. ...For a casualry, I suppose.


The winning percentages look pretty strange to me and might be something different entirely. They add up to 100%, but we already know that it's possible for everyone to lose (keymaster selected) and for two people to win (sacrifice selected), and I doubt that these two options are equally likely to happen. You'd expect that the sacrifice tricking everyone is more likely than everyone messing up and voting for the keymaster, in which case the percentages should add up to more than 100%. They should also add up to more than 100% if there are some outlier scenarios where the players outwit the game and survive in larger numbers, but that might not be taken into account by whatever calculations are used.

Onmi
Jul 12, 2013

If someone says it one more time I'm having Florina show up as a corpse. I'm not even kidding, I was pissed off with people doing that shit back in 2010, and I'm not dealing with it now in 2016.


Heavy neutrino posted:

The winning percentages look pretty strange to me and might be something different entirely. They add up to 100%, but we already know that it's possible for everyone to lose (keymaster selected) and for two people to win (sacrifice selected), and I doubt that these two options are equally likely to happen. You'd expect that the sacrifice tricking everyone is more likely than everyone messing up and voting for the keymaster, in which case the percentages should add up to more than 100%. They should also add up to more than 100% if there are some outlier scenarios where the players outwit the game and survive in larger numbers, but that might not be taken into account by whatever calculations are used.

Well Neutrino, have you considered that it's like when a Fatal Fourway is announced as all competitors having a 25% chance of winning, even though that's NOT how numbers work?

EDIT: More seriously, as Keymaster and Sacrifice aren't set, so they can't be an influencing factor. Yes, Sara COULD become the Sacrifice, however, that's entirely a random circumstance (Except now there's something about being able to trade roles?) basically, for Shin Tsukimi to have a 0% chance means they've gone "It doesn't matter if you have the Keymaster, the Sacrifice, or any other role, there is no chance you can survive. Even if you were the keymaster, everyone would still vote for you and DIE"

Or it could all be bullshit made to gently caress with Shin since this whole thing is apparently an experiment on negative emotions, someone being confronted with "Hey... you're in a death game and you have no chance to survive" is brutal.

That said... I raise a question I asked before. How many participants can 'win'? If it's only a single survivor, then, by all accounts, isn't it better for the Sacrifice to be chosen?

Onmi fucked around with this message at 11:20 on Apr 21, 2020

HerpicleOmnicron5
May 31, 2013

How did this smug dummkopf ever make general?




Okay, how about it being chance to die instead, and showing Shin/Sou a 0% and letting them come to their own conclusion changes his behaviour sufficiently such that he then dies in this Main Game?

Lord_Magmar
Feb 24, 2015

"Welcome to pound town, Slifer slacker!"




Have you considered that it might not be likelihood of winning the death game, but instead chance of surviving it overall?

Basically their calculations are such that Sara has a 15% chance of surviving to the end, whilst poor Shin has 0%. Whether that be because of the main games or the side games.

Onmi
Jul 12, 2013

If someone says it one more time I'm having Florina show up as a corpse. I'm not even kidding, I was pissed off with people doing that shit back in 2010, and I'm not dealing with it now in 2016.


HerpicleOmnicron5 posted:

Okay, how about it being chance to die instead, and showing Shin/Sou a 0% and letting them come to their own conclusion changes his behaviour sufficiently such that he then dies in this Main Game?

It could be, I hadn't considered it.


Lord_Magmar posted:

Have you considered that it might not be likelihood of winning the death game, but instead chance of surviving it overall?

Basically their calculations are such that Sara has a 15% chance of surviving to the end, whilst poor Shin has 0%. Whether that be because of the main games or the side games.

I had, but like... again we don't know when this game 'ends'... well I guess that doesn't matter.

Smiling Knight
May 31, 2011



HerpicleOmnicron5 posted:

Okay, how about it being chance to die instead, and showing Shin/Sou a 0% and letting them come to their own conclusion changes his behaviour sufficiently such that he then dies in this Main Game?

Wouldn't make sense with what we've seen -- the people with lower numbers are logically more likely to die and some already have. See Mishima, who is both weird/off-putting and loyal/self-sacrificing, and Joe, who is also devoted to another player.

MarquiseMindfang
Jan 6, 2013


I mean it's entirely possible that the percentages adding up to 100% just means "of the games that end with a winner, what % chance does each person win".

Or maybe surviving the Death Game and winning it are entirely different things. Maybe surviving via being voted for as Sacrifice is surviving, sure, but not winning. The game is considered a failure.

Tylana
May 5, 2011



Pillbug

Of course, if this was Uchikoshi game, it'd be (spoilers for Zero escape and such games) Chance of having pyschic powers when exposed to extreme negative emotions. but not getting that feel here.

Insertnamehere31
Jan 22, 2012

This could be the most one-sided fight since 1973 when Ali faced an eighty-foot tall mechanical Joe Frazier. My memory isn't what it used to be, but I think the entire Earth was destroyed.



Onmi posted:

Well Neutrino, have you considered that it's like when a Fatal Fourway is announced as all competitors having a 25% chance of winning, even though that's NOT how numbers work?

You know they say all death game participants are created equal. But you look at me and you look at Sou, and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally when you go into a death game you got a 5% chance of winning. But I’m a genetic freak, and I’m not normal! So you got a 2.5% AT BEST at beat me. See the death game, you got a 0/20 chance at winning, but I- I have a 3/20 chance of winning cuz Keiji KNOWS he can’t beat me, and he’s not even gonna try!

So Sou, you take your 0% chance, minus my 15.5% chance, and you got a -15.5% of winning at this death game. But then you take my 7.5% chance of winning if we was to go one on one, and add my 15.5 per cents, I got a 23% of winning at this death game.

SEE MCSOU? THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE, AND THEY SPELL DISASTER FOR YOU AS THE SACRIFICE!

girl dick energy
Sep 30, 2009

You think you have the wherewithal to figure out my puzzle vagina?


Who would everyone main in Smash? Sara seems like a Lucina player to me.

sleeptalker
Feb 17, 2011



If the numbers are success rates based on simulations run with the AI versions of the players then there's already some problems. Reko's AI had the discrepancy caused by the infrequent personality updates, and Nao may not have an AI at all, since she doesn't have numbers and her player info wasn't an AI.

Tenebrais
Sep 2, 2011



When it comes to the percentages as survival chances, the fact that they add up to 100% is probably a point against it - particularly, Nao is not on the cards, so is in the group that is implicitly 0%. But Mishima is at 3%, meaning they have concocted some scenarios where he outlives her - but everything we've seen has him throwing himself in harm's way to protect her. He's managed to die for her twice! There's no way he'd have a higher chance of survival than her.

Unless it does have to do with the AIs, as above, anyway.

Regallion
Nov 11, 2012



Tenebrais posted:

When it comes to the percentages as survival chances, the fact that they add up to 100% is probably a point against it - particularly, Nao is not on the cards, so is in the group that is implicitly 0%. But Mishima is at 3%, meaning they have concocted some scenarios where he outlives her - but everything we've seen has him throwing himself in harm's way to protect her. He's managed to die for her twice! There's no way he'd have a higher chance of survival than her.

Unless it does have to do with the AIs, as above, anyway.

it's possible the 3% is in situations where Nao doesn't even make it past the very first trial, so he has no reason to sacrifice himself quite so easily.

Tenebrais
Sep 2, 2011



Regallion posted:

it's possible the 3% is in situations where Nao doesn't even make it past the very first trial, so he has no reason to sacrifice himself quite so easily.

They're paired together in the first trial!

Regallion
Nov 11, 2012



Tenebrais posted:

They're paired together in the first trial!

And it's still possible for him to gently caress it up very badly, become depressed and sufficiently unnoticeable to coast to victory?

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

I fight with
my brain
and with an
underlying
hatred of the
Erebonian
Noble Faction


Tenebrais posted:

When it comes to the percentages as survival chances, the fact that they add up to 100% is probably a point against it - particularly, Nao is not on the cards, so is in the group that is implicitly 0%. But Mishima is at 3%, meaning they have concocted some scenarios where he outlives her - but everything we've seen has him throwing himself in harm's way to protect her. He's managed to die for her twice! There's no way he'd have a higher chance of survival than her.

Unless it does have to do with the AIs, as above, anyway.

Nao wasn't expected. So she's not in their data.

nonrev
Jul 15, 2012






Insertnamehere31 posted:

You know they say all death game participants are created equal. But you look at me and you look at Sou, and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally when you go into a death game you got a 5% chance of winning. But I’m a genetic freak, and I’m not normal! So you got a 2.5% AT BEST at beat me. See the death game, you got a 0/20 chance at winning, but I- I have a 3/20 chance of winning cuz Keiji KNOWS he can’t beat me, and he’s not even gonna try!

So Sou, you take your 0% chance, minus my 15.5% chance, and you got a -15.5% of winning at this death game. But then you take my 7.5% chance of winning if we was to go one on one, and add my 15.5 per cents, I got a 23% of winning at this death game.

SEE MCSOU? THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE, AND THEY SPELL DISASTER FOR YOU AS THE SACRIFICE!

:perfect:

Sordas Volantyr
Jan 11, 2015

Now, everybody, walk like a Jekhar.

(God, these running animations are terrible.)

Insertnamehere31 posted:

You know they say all death game participants are created equal. But you look at me and you look at Sou, and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally when you go into a death game you got a 5% chance of winning. But I’m a genetic freak, and I’m not normal! So you got a 2.5% AT BEST at beat me. See the death game, you got a 0/20 chance at winning, but I- I have a 3/20 chance of winning cuz Keiji KNOWS he can’t beat me, and he’s not even gonna try!

So Sou, you take your 0% chance, minus my 15.5% chance, and you got a -15.5% of winning at this death game. But then you take my 7.5% chance of winning if we was to go one on one, and add my 15.5 per cents, I got a 23% of winning at this death game.

SEE MCSOU? THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE, AND THEY SPELL DISASTER FOR YOU AS THE SACRIFICE!

Caption: THIS IS WHAT SOU ACTUALLY BELIEVES

HydroSphere
Feb 11, 2014

























Music stops.




“Reko... you really were kind... such a good kid...”

“.................”



Alice... lost someone precious to him. Just like Nao lost her teacher. Just like Kanna lost her sister.



(Reko...)

She was a trustworthy ally to me, too.

It's painful... It's sad....


(But... but...! We can't just stay here forever...!!)

“Alice, Nao...!”





“... I know how you feel. But the Main Game's going to start again!”



“They're giving an explanation...! Please, come to the Medical Office!”



“Huh...?”

“It shouldn't matter to you if anything unfavourable happens to us.”

“In the Main Game, everyone is an enemy...”



“...That may be true.”

“But I don't think giving up on living and thinking is the right thing to do...!”

“...!”

“If we diligently think about it... I'm sure... I'm sure there's a path!!”

“A path...”

“I've long since passed up such a thing...”



“Because I thought someday... my parents, or Reko, would repay me...”

“There's... no path anymore...”

Music stops.




“Hey now, Nao Egokoro... What are you...?!”

Nao removed the gloves from Reko's body.

“I need to deliver this...”

“There's surely someone else waiting... who treasures Reko as much as us...”

“Nao...”



“...!”

Alice accepted one of the gloves.

“...I'm going. I need to move forward...!”

“..............”

“Forward...”

“Sara Chidouin... I will tell you this...”

“The name of the man I killed... was Sou Hiyori.”



“Huh...?!”

“I don't care about Sou Hiyori at this point.”

Music stops.



(Alice...)

Those were... eyes of revenge.



Anger and hate... Those made the only path that would move Alice now.

Then what path will I choose...?


(...That's obvious.)



(The Main Game... I won't let it happen!!)



“...!!”

(I'm... not going to lose...!!)





Investigate Ranger.

The torso of Rio Ranger.


(Because of Ranger... Reko and the fake Reko both...)

Investigate Ranger's head.

The head of Rio Ranger.


(He was a doll, just like the fake Reko...)

Joe's hairclip remains in his hair.



  • There's no hallucination level in 2-2; may as well take the hairclip.

(Give it back...! This is Joe's!!)



Investigate Reko.

Reko lies in the centre of the Room of Lies.




(I'll go the Medical Office... Everyone should be waiting there.)




Talk to Sou and Kanna.

Sou and Kanna are whispering in the corner.


(Not the kind of thing I can barge into...)

Talk to Q-taro.

Q-taro is chatting happily with Gin and Keiji.


(It's... hard to imagine the Main Game is approaching.)

Talk to Gin.

Music stops.



“Gin! You're up and moving already?”





“The antidote Keiji brought's workin' like a charm! Don't feel no weird after-effects, neither!”

“Good showing from your friendly policeman, eh?”

(It really was a close call... If Keiji hadn't found the antidote, both of them might have...)



“...That's about the only thing I could do.”

“Mostly it came down to Q-taro putting his life on the line.”

“You're really something, you know.”



“Couldn't do hardly anything, all told....”

“...An' we lost two Reko's.”



Music stops.



“..................”

“Alice...”

“All of you really are stupid...”

“All the kidnappers are planning here is for us to kill each other.”



“...............”

“So why would you help each other? Why try to be kind...”

“...Reko was the same.”



“.................”

“Alice...”

“...Don't forget about Reko.”

“She was lonesome. Despite how it looked...”



(Of course we won't forget. We can't...!)

“Hmph... Maybe there's something wrong with me, too...”

“Even though you and I are soon going to be killing each other...”

“...”






“Mr. Gin Ibushi... How are you faring?”

“There he is, meow!! Uncle Crabstache!!”



“You think we're just gonna sit here and listen to yer drat explanation?”

“You guys are always pulling tricks! I won't trust you,woof!!”



“W-What the heck, woof!! Don't come any closer, meow...!”

Music stops.

“Fantastic...”

“Mya...?!”






“And Uncle Crabstache... It's an honour to receive such a charming nickname.”

“You screwin' with us now?!”



“Fantastic, simply fantastic...!”

“I... I feel sick, meow...”

“Oh dear... So there is yet some venom left!”

“It's not that, woof!!”

No music.

“...Um, when are you getting to the explanation?”

“Pardon me.”











“D... Data?”

“Card data has already been distributed at random to the voting tables you possess. All that remains is... the permission to access it.”

Why'd ya hafta make it so roundabout?!”

“Very sharp indeed, Mr. Q-taro.”

Music stops.




“We can trade our cards...?”

“Indeed. Now then, let me show you. Come forth, Ring-Up Box...!”





“You may trade cards by making a request at one of these Ring-Up Boxes, situated in each room.”




“Of course, just like the Sub-Game, you cannot use your own tokens.”

“What a ridiculous rule...!!”



“...!!”

(That's an awful rule! People without tokens don't even get the right to trade...!)

“Trades are 1-on-1 with who you select. Please trade freely, with whomever you wish.”

“You have a time limit of approximately 3 hours.”

When all have returned to their bedrooms, that will signal the start of this trading phase.”

“..............”

“.................”

Music stops.

“Do not wear such gloomy looks, everyone.”



(What is he talking about...?!)

“So then, please return to your rooms within 5 minutes.”

“If you do not... You understand, don't you?”

“...”

The atmosphere is unpleasant. We look at each other's faces and try to judge how we're feeling.



“For now, let's go back to our rooms...”

“Y-Yeah...”

“And after that, we'll definitely find a way to escape.”

“I won't let them have their way!!”



“Let's get going, guys.”



Glancing at each other's faces, and seeing looks of anxiety mixed with trust.

“Big sis Sara.”

“Hm? What is it, Gin?”

“I hid it 'cause the suspicious loner was there...”



“Huh?!”

“I don't wanna trouble you guys anymore, meow! So I'll do my best, woof!”

“Ah, Gin...!”

(I feel so uneasy... Is everything going to be okay?)




A Ring-Up Box has appeared in the back of my room.

It's... quiet. Here in my room, I'm all alone.

(Huh...?)

My hands are shaking.

(...This...)

Back there, I tried to cheer everyone up so they wouldn't be uneasy. I told myself I couldn't give in around them.

(But when I'm alone... I'm so cowardly...)

(No, no... I can't get timid...)

(What the...?!)

Suddenly, the tablet began making a sound.

(Could this sound mean... It's begun...?)




(My role...!)

A fateful moment.



Subconsciously, I was praying.

(Don't do it...)

HydroSphere fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Apr 22, 2020

girl dick energy
Sep 30, 2009

You think you have the wherewithal to figure out my puzzle vagina?


Is there a pun in Gashu's name?

Tenebrais
Sep 2, 2011



I liked his caption changing to Uncle Crabstache for a few lines.

HerpicleOmnicron5
May 31, 2013

How did this smug dummkopf ever make general?




PMush Perfect posted:

Is there a pun in Gashu's name?

Gashu, he's got you?

Blaze Dragon
Aug 28, 2013
LOWTAX'S SPINE FUND



Tenebrais posted:

I liked his caption changing to Uncle Crabstache for a few lines.

Oh god, I didn't realize it did. That's hilarious.

NeoRonTheNeuron
Oct 14, 2012


"You were all born to win", huh?

Maybe the whole thing ends if we let Sou/Shin win for once. xD

Since the setup for Part 2 allows you to pick the Reko route or the Alice route, it seems unlikely that the game remembers how many tokens Sara has left. As a result, Sara is unlikely to actively participate in any trading, though a card may end up shoved at her by someone else.

It seems like those who initiate the trade can pick their target, but it's unclear if the target gets to know who the initiator is. Guessing not. Obscuring whether or not you've traded with someone is going to be a key strategy for survival this time around.

I hope they also patch up the "Sage can't lie" loophole; it ruins the whole scheme if they don't.

PlasticAutomaton
Nov 12, 2016

Artoria Pendonut




Oh hell with all the tokens Q-Taro got on his attempt to escape, this is probably the worst possible case scenario now that he's working with Sou. That pretty much lets the little poo poo dictate the entire main game before it even starts.

Jefepato
Mar 11, 2009

This?! This is a glorious dance! That has been passed down! In my family for generations!


PlasticAutomaton posted:

Oh hell with all the tokens Q-Taro got on his attempt to escape, this is probably the worst possible case scenario now that he's working with Sou. That pretty much lets the little poo poo dictate the entire main game before it even starts.

He doesn't have perfect information. He can still gently caress up, or someone who saves their tokens until the last minute could screw him after he's spent his tokens arranging things.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

I fight with
my brain
and with an
underlying
hatred of the
Erebonian
Noble Faction


I can't unsee the Crabstache now. I'm glad Gin lived.

Sword_of_Dusk
Sep 30, 2018

Legendary Luminary


So, Sara's gonna get the Sacrifice card, right? I mean, whatever she gets will likely get traded, and unless the last portion of the game is wildly different from this, it's too early for her to actually keep the Sacrifice role.

Ignatius M. Meen
May 26, 2011

Hello yes I heard there was a lovely trainwreck here and...



Wouldn't it make more sense for her to end up with the Sage role? Give her the Sacrifice role and her bloc could be convinced to vote for her so that at least one of them gets to go home, but if she's the Sage it goes like last time with Kai where she's the safe vote to die. At least if you're going at this like Sou I presume.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

I fight with
my brain
and with an
underlying
hatred of the
Erebonian
Noble Faction


Ignatius M. Meen posted:

Wouldn't it make more sense for her to end up with the Sage role? Give her the Sacrifice role and her bloc could be convinced to vote for her so that at least one of them gets to go home, but if she's the Sage it goes like last time with Kai where she's the safe vote to die. At least if you're going at this like Sou I presume.
I figure it's going to be Sacrifice traded to Sage. Then she knows who the Sage and Keymaster are and can SUSPECT who the Sacrifice is, and also knows that if she reveals any of this, she's likely to die. It feels like the most possible drama.

NeoRonTheNeuron
Oct 14, 2012


I like it. That's a pretty stable "solution" and is suitably dramatic.

Since the person initiating the trade knows what the target should end up with, anyone who starts with the Sage will want to get rid of it and convince everyone to target the person who received it. However, if the person receives the Sacrifice in exchange, they can no longer safely reveal any info.

Jefepato
Mar 11, 2009

This?! This is a glorious dance! That has been passed down! In my family for generations!


It's a lot like One Night Werewolf. No matter what you think you know, there could always have been one more swap that changes everything. (The one big difference is that everyone does at least know their own final role.)

I mean, aside from Q-Taro with 200 and Gin with nothing, do we even know who has how many tokens? Any chance someone (I.e. Sou) looted Reko's body? (Or is that against the rules?)

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Mraagvpeine
Nov 4, 2014

I won this avatar on a technicality this thick.

I wonder how the trading is going to work. Can you choose 2 other people or does one of the people have to be you? Do you know get to know what the other person's card is before you trade or do you just have to take a chance?

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