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ShadowHawk posted:Yeah the only reasonable way to do this is by excess mortality stats that's still going to need a lot of expert work to figure out, as actions taken have had a lot of other effects as well. a notable example is that in sweden, despite the lack of a hard lockdown, the seasonal flu which was just getting going was by all appearances fully stopped within a week or two from social distancing precautions.
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May 23, 2020 12:55
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Cybernetic Vermin posted:that's still going to need a lot of expert work to figure out, as actions taken have had a lot of other effects as well. i am talking about something like this https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c not sure how much expert work went into this, but the underlying analysis seems basically: 1) count deaths per month (or per week) for years 2009-2019, calculate averages and standard deviation to get an error margin 2) count deaths per month for 2020 and see where you end up
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May 23, 2020 13:59
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Penisface posted:i am talking about something like this https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c yeah, but where the crisis has had secondary effects on people health it should be adjusted for to make the numbers truly fair. the fact that i can't go skydiving when seriously ill from covid should not be counted as an edge in survivability.
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May 23, 2020 14:43
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yeah there are fewer traffic fatalities, fewer deaths from other communicable diseases, but maybe more deaths due to delayed treatment or people shy of going to the hospital. plus whatever covid throws at us. it’s definitely a useful exercise and the fact that you can see clear excess deaths means that this is an extremely serious disease. i guess what excess deaths gives you is “given the boundary condition of X covid-19 cases at the start of the crisis, what is the total effect of the interventions undertaken by a country”, which is clearly pretty useful.
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May 23, 2020 15:33
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carry on then posted:people aren’t that eager to sit at your lunch table dude it's not my lunch table? nice try tho
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May 23, 2020 15:37
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Eeyo posted:yeah there are fewer traffic fatalities, fewer deaths from other communicable diseases, but maybe more deaths due to delayed treatment or people shy of going to the hospital. plus whatever covid throws at us. it’s definitely a useful exercise and the fact that you can see clear excess deaths means that this is an extremely serious disease. i guess what excess deaths gives you is “given the boundary condition of X covid-19 cases at the start of the crisis, what is the total effect of the interventions undertaken by a country”, which is clearly pretty useful. sure, my only point is that it will be a pretty active research area trying to get the numbers as precise as possible. day-to-day one has to run with whatever numbers one has, but it is probably 5 years before we get really thoroughly put together country-spanning studies that will tell as complete a story as we can.
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May 23, 2020 15:37
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and it'll be nearly impossible to tally the total death toll of the whole thing, factoring in the whole bringing-a-nominally-operating-medical-system-to-its-knees thing and all. lotsa people are dying of non covid poo poo because of covid. its hosed up
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May 23, 2020 15:41
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yeah; we're never going to know the full extent of what happened in some states / countries, places like georgia and florida. which is unfortunate as otherwise we'd have much better data for researchers
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May 23, 2020 15:50
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Cybernetic Vermin posted:sure, my only point is that it will be a pretty active research area trying to get the numbers as precise as possible. day-to-day one has to run with whatever numbers one has, but it is probably 5 years before we get really thoroughly put together country-spanning studies that will tell as complete a story as we can. oh yeah i agree, actually disentangling the data and saying how many people actually died of a coronavirus infection is going to be very difficult. i just hope experts can learn something from this and the next time there's a pandemic we'll be well-prepared and act accordingly (lol)
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May 23, 2020 16:11
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allegedly florida did something shockingly smart by not allowing hospitals to toss COVID19 cases back into nursing homes. unlike new york that forced nursing/retirement homes to take them.
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May 23, 2020 16:24
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FMguru posted:my benchmark has been "what civilians in continental europe had to endure from 1938-1946" the oldest living generation in china went through a whole lot that’s unfathomable to me. basically, a brutal foreign invasion, massive famines, civil war, a violent revolution, an even bigger famine that’s the greatest famine in human history, the cultural revolution, and that just brings you to the late 70s. the country has been changing since then so fast it must be almost unrecognizable by now. it’s nuts to think about
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May 23, 2020 17:26
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fart simpson posted:the oldest living generation in china went through a whole lot that’s unfathomable to me. basically, a brutal foreign invasion, massive famines, civil war, a violent revolution, an even bigger famine that’s the greatest famine in human history, the cultural revolution, and that just brings you to the late 70s. the country has been changing since then so fast it must be almost unrecognizable by now. it’s nuts to think about the 1900s were not a good time to be Chinese, that is a fuckin fact.
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May 23, 2020 17:29
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i read a book about 1940s china and the part where the author is interviewing peasants about their lives had me in tears
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May 23, 2020 17:38
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rotor posted:the 1900s were not a good time to be Chinese, that is a fuckin fact.
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May 23, 2020 17:38
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rotor posted:the 1900s were not a good time to be Chinese, that is a fuckin fact. 2000s are shaping up to be an improvement for china in general.
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May 23, 2020 17:57
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fart simpson posted:i read a book about 1940s china and the part where the author is interviewing peasants about their lives had me in tears it’s insane to me that even through all that, a country of 300-400mil people rocketed to 1.3bn even with single child rules and stuff like that
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May 23, 2020 18:07
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one-child wasnt a thing till '79. two kids before that iirc
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May 23, 2020 18:21
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Jonny 290 posted:one-child wasnt a thing till '79. two kids before that iirc iirc they called it “one child left behind”
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May 23, 2020 18:34
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mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty
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May 23, 2020 18:35
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President Beep posted:mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty lmao
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May 23, 2020 18:39
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mods please
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May 23, 2020 18:52
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President Beep posted:mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty mods PLEASE
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May 23, 2020 18:56
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President Beep posted:mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty nice
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May 23, 2020 19:02
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President Beep posted:mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty
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May 23, 2020 19:07
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i beg you
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May 23, 2020 19:08
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fart simpson posted:i read a book about 1940s china and the part where the author is interviewing peasants about their lives had me in tears so there's a family my son is friends with that has an older grand-auntie and we were making smalltalk and I asked which side she was related to and it turns out she's not related to anyone but when their family was fleeing from the japanese they found her wandering around the train station or whatever alone and just took her with them. They never found her parents.
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May 23, 2020 19:36
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rotor posted:so there's a family my son is friends with that has an older grand-auntie and we were making smalltalk and I asked which side she was related to and it turns out she's not related to anyone but when their family was fleeing from the japanese they found her wandering around the train station or whatever alone and just took her with them. They never found her parents. yep my "great uncle" in our family was like that but from germany. he very rarely talked about the war but the few stories i heard from him were terrifying
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May 23, 2020 20:43
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President Beep posted:mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty lmao
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May 23, 2020 20:52
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my grandfather served on a ship in the south pacific and never spoke about it once after he came home i assume it was a big horrorshow.
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May 23, 2020 20:52
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anyways i am kind of opposed to comparing this to ww2 or nam or anything else because it is a different type of terror. an invisible undetectable death cloud is not the same as bullets and planes and missiles. i'm not saying one or the other is lesser but this is difficult to parse for most of us
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May 23, 2020 20:54
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Yeah plus its not a competition. Those comparisons are mostly helpful in getting people to understand how bad something might be, but anyone who'll ever be convinced already is.
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May 23, 2020 20:56
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Jonny 290 posted:my grandfather served on a ship in the south pacific and never spoke about it once after he came home i hope it wasn't the uss indianapolis 
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May 23, 2020 22:12
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President Beep posted:mods namechange to “great beep forward” ty l-Mao
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May 23, 2020 22:22
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:l-Mao
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May 23, 2020 22:25
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chairman i like how
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May 23, 2020 22:35
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prefect posted:i hope it wasn't the uss indianapolis Swear to god I don't know. Nobody even mentioned the name of the ship and I do not speak with what's left of my family
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May 23, 2020 22:53
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President Beep posted:chairman i like how “I like how too” -pg1, Chairman Pos’s little amber book
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May 23, 2020 22:54
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my motherboard was made by the kuomintang
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May 23, 2020 23:15
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2000 years of yospos culture
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May 23, 2020 23:34
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the little amber book
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May 24, 2020 02:23
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