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Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

echinopsis posted:

what a lovely millennial you turned out to be. you put the tongue in. the eating part of eating rear end isn’t hyperbole

look m8 i'm not the one getting weird in a Burger King

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ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

CERTIFIED PRE OWNED TESLA OWNER

akadajet posted:

I don't talk about yospos to women so this hasn't been a deterrent.
I knew I was doing something wrong

TOOT BOOT
May 25, 2010

I have said the word yospos out loud to a woman

President Beep
Apr 29, 2009





i have to have a car because otherwise i cant drive around the country solving mysteries while being doggedly pursued by federal marshals for a crime i did not commit (9/11)

TOOT BOOT posted:

I have said the word yospos out loud to a woman

how did you pronounce it

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

REIGNING YOSPOS COSTCO KING

President Beep posted:

how did you pronounce it
the correct way - "yospos"

NoneMoreNegative
Jul 20, 2000
GOTH FASCISTIC
PAIN
MASTER




shit wizard dad

President Beep posted:

how did you pronounce it

Moo Cowabunga
Jun 15, 2009

[Office Worker.




I can’t get my chair from the office wtf

theadder
Dec 29, 2011


Optimus_Rhyme posted:

In Wuhan they literally welded doors shut to control people movement.

they were killing them you silly goon

President Beep
Apr 29, 2009





i have to have a car because otherwise i cant drive around the country solving mysteries while being doggedly pursued by federal marshals for a crime i did not commit (9/11)
mlyp!!!

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
whoa, a thread. maybe I should read the forum index more often

theadder
Dec 29, 2011


Displeased Moo Cow posted:

I can’t get my chair from the office wtf

same but pc :greenangel:

Farmer Crack-Ass
Jan 2, 2001

this is me posting irl

TOOT BOOT posted:

I have said the word yospos out loud to a woman

same (she is also a goon)

big shtick energy
May 27, 2004


Fatality rate estimate from oxford university:

quote:

Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Comparing deaths onboard with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates using China data, they estimated: CFR 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3-2.4%); IFR 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2-1.2%).

Updated: 22nd March: Estimating COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates (CFR) and Infection Rate Fatality (IFR)

The Infection Rate Fatality (IFR) differs from the CFR in that aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group). if tested, this group would be counted as infected and at least temporarily be immune.

Our current best assumption, as of the 22nd March, is the IFR is approximate 0.19% (95% CI, 0.16 to 0.24).*

In the elderly, co-morbidities have a significant impact on the CFR: those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk, particularly those with cardiovascular conditions. Modelling the data on the prevalence of comorbidities is essential to understand the CFR and IFR by age. In those without pre-existing health conditions, and over 70, the data is reassuring that the IFR will likely not be above 1%. The prevalence of comorbidities is highly age-dependent and is higher in socially deprived.
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Unfortunately that's still like 10x a bad flu season, so hospitals are likely to continue being overwhelmed for a while.

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


DuckConference posted:

Fatality rate estimate from oxford university:

https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Unfortunately that's still like 10x a bad flu season, so hospitals are likely to continue being overwhelmed for a while.

it's messed up that good news is lessening this from 'worse than wwii' to 'still incredibly bad and overwhelming our hospitals' but i'll take it

Midjack
Dec 24, 2007



for what it’s worth my brother is an actuary for a global insurance company and he said the industry estimates last week were half the 1918 epidemic.

that would mean we’re in for a fatality rate of 1.5% of the global population this time.

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

REIGNING YOSPOS COSTCO KING

Midjack posted:

for what it’s worth my brother is an actuary for a global insurance company and he said the industry estimates last week were half the 1918 epidemic.

that would mean we’re in for a fatality rate of 1.5% of the global population this time.
theyre predicting 40-70% of all people will catch the disease, with a 2-3% death rate

so 1.5% total fatalities sounds about right

117 million deaths worldwide
5.1 million americans
600 thousand californians

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

PIZZA.BAT posted:

it's messed up that good news is lessening this from 'worse than wwii' to 'still incredibly bad and overwhelming our hospitals' but i'll take it

well i read that it’s a bio weapon that goes dormant and then re-emerges as hiv after you think you recovered and eventually 75% of people will have their lungs turn into a puddle of blood

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


fart simpson posted:

well i read that it’s a bio weapon that goes dormant and then re-emerges as hiv after you think you recovered and eventually 75% of people will have their lungs turn into a puddle of blood

oh dangit

President Beep
Apr 29, 2009





i have to have a car because otherwise i cant drive around the country solving mysteries while being doggedly pursued by federal marshals for a crime i did not commit (9/11)

fart simpson posted:

well i read that it’s a bio weapon that goes dormant and then re-emerges as hiv after you think you recovered and eventually 75% of people will have their lungs turn into a puddle of blood

is this the nwo population control thing or the food for reptilians thibg?

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison

Midjack posted:

for what it’s worth my brother is an actuary for a global insurance company and he said the industry estimates last week were half the 1918 epidemic.

that would mean we’re in for a fatality rate of 1.5% of the global population this time.

not terrible, not great

Sagebrush
Feb 26, 2012


professor lumpy balls, they call me

Samuel L. ACKSYN posted:

u got any cool recommendations for things i should print

well i'm starting to go stir-crazy and i spent last night making a set of classic mac os icon fridge magnets:





they press-fit (depending on your printer's tolerances ofc) a 10mm x 2mm rare-earth magnet, or 3mm if you want extra power, except for clarus the dogcow which fits an 8mm one because there wasn't enough room for the larger magnet. if your slicer supports layer pauses, you can use that to make the black pixels by pausing at 3mm and switching filament, or if not then just print in white and color the top with a sharpie. you may want to turn on elephant foot compensation.

here is the stl if you wanna do it. thingiverse is taking a big dump these days so they're on the first website i found when i googled "free file host."

https://gofile.io/?c=Yrlxaq

if you don't want to buy two sizes of magnets you can cut clarus out of the pack and scale her up by 1.248x but that's a pretty scrubly move because then the pixel weights won't all be the same.

credit for the original art of course goes to the excellent susan kare

theadder
Dec 29, 2011


bless u op

big shtick energy
May 27, 2004


FMguru posted:

theyre predicting 40-70% of all people will catch the disease, with a 2-3% death rate

so 1.5% total fatalities sounds about right

117 million deaths worldwide
5.1 million americans
600 thousand californians

it's probably 1/10th of that though

actually that's still a lot

Samuel L. ACKSYN
Feb 29, 2008


Sagebrush posted:

well i'm starting to go stir-crazy and i spent last night making a set of classic mac os icon fridge magnets:


ok thats awesome, thanks


im gonna print them i think i have some magnets somewhere. not sure if i have any black filament but i might.


and you've given me ideas, maybe i'll do some other icons

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

DuckConference posted:

it's probably 1/10th of that though

actually that's still a lot

I hope you are right, because I'm freaking out.

At least Hawaii went into complete lockdown mode so maybe there are hospital beds and ventilators for if I start drowning in my own blood. We currently only have 56 confirmed cases, but there is a 5 day delay between testing and results and they just started doing mass testing today and the complete shutdown doesn't start until tomorrow.

Sagebrush
Feb 26, 2012


professor lumpy balls, they call me

Samuel L. ACKSYN posted:

and you've given me ideas, maybe i'll do some other icons

unfortunately the school is closed so i can't go and borrow the neon green to make a YOSPOS

and like, you can use any two colors of filament. doesn't have to be black on white

Methanar
Sep 26, 2013

by the sex ghost
Friendly reminder that for any covid19 business continuity meetings you get pulled into, when somebody starts talking about single points of failure and bus factors, that has the dual purpose of identifying redundancy and who can be laid off with minimal business impact.

Just remember all corporations are soulless monsters and the only courtesy they will ever extend is asking how long of a rope you'd like when they hang you. Please represent knowledge sharing and business tolerance of missing personnel accordingly.

Midjack
Dec 24, 2007



DuckConference posted:

it's probably 1/10th of that though

actually that's still a lot

I’d like for those numbers to be high but given the quality of response we’ve seen worldwide so far i’m gonna go with them being accurate.

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Methanar posted:

Friendly reminder that for any covid19 business continuity meetings you get pulled into, when somebody starts talking about single points of failure and bus factors, that has the dual purpose of identifying redundancy and who can be laid off with minimal business impact.

Just remember all corporations are soulless monsters and the only courtesy they will ever extend is asking how long of a rope you'd like when they hang you. Please represent knowledge sharing and business tolerance of missing personnel accordingly.

When I started demanding work from home 10 days ago I made sure to emphasize that everyone at our company is essential and anyone getting sick or hospitalized for any length of time would be disastrous, and it is insane to risk having *several* people get sick simultaneously.

The CEO of course told me that 3 people would get WFH and the other 7 of us had to keep coming in, but then I got a CDC mandated quarantine on me and now the whole city is forced to close and we are not essential, so we are all from home.

Sagebrush
Feb 26, 2012


professor lumpy balls, they call me
i also made this useful image as a side effect.

big shtick energy
May 27, 2004


Midjack posted:

I’d like for those numbers to be high but given the quality of response we’ve seen worldwide so far i’m gonna go with them being accurate.

The BMJ published a letter that argues that the widely used numbers are on the high side: https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1113

Samuel L. ACKSYN
Feb 29, 2008


Sagebrush posted:

and like, you can use any two colors of filament. doesn't have to be black on white


i mean yeah but black and white would look nice

tbh im thinking marble pla and then black

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


Stereotype posted:

I hope you are right, because I'm freaking out.

At least Hawaii went into complete lockdown mode so maybe there are hospital beds and ventilators for if I start drowning in my own blood. We currently only have 56 confirmed cases, but there is a 5 day delay between testing and results and they just started doing mass testing today and the complete shutdown doesn't start until tomorrow.

Read the CEBM link above, it's very clearly written and gives some cause for hope. They estimate the actual IFR to be probably less than 0.24%, and go over lots of the causes of uncertainty.

The big mystery to me is why it's so bad in Italy but not bad in Japan. Some of it is probably different statistics methods, but there aren't loads of stories about Japanese hospitals being overwhelmed like in Italy. Mask wearing and social practices might also be relevant, but you have to wonder if the way hospitals are treating patients is not-optimal in Italy, if they can't provide top quality care then is taking an I'll person into the company of lots of other I'll people actually helping anyone?


E: the overall theme of the article is that the disease is dramatically worse for the old and already ill. The kids will be fine:

quote:

Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which will drive down the IFR significantly. 

distortion park fucked around with this message at 07:36 on Mar 23, 2020

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


I don't want to downplay the pandemic, it's obviously very bad, but the impression you get from actual medical statisticians is very different (significantly worse and a bit different from seasonal flu) from all the "this FRONTLINE intensive care doctor says HALF the cases will DIE" stories that propogate on twitter. They're tabloid headlines in disguise.

Moo Cowabunga
Jun 15, 2009

[Office Worker.




My wife has been sent home, not working from home she's a teacher so she has like 15 minutes of e-lessons to post online then she's done for the day. Also have ...the children...at home as the government has said all schools are now closed and the kids suddenly have a 5 week e-learning/holiday.

echinopsis
Apr 13, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
I had to shave


F M L


now you can tell I don't have a chin :cry:

Moo Cowabunga
Jun 15, 2009

[Office Worker.




Feeling for ya here bud. Keep up the good fight, despite the lack of chin. I don't care. You're awesome. Computer Jesus would be proud of you. :smugmrgw::hf::smugmrgw:

echinopsis
Apr 13, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
I have a bum chin :(

echinopsis
Apr 13, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

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Feisty-Cadaver
Jun 1, 2000
The worms crawl in,
The worms crawl out.

quote:

The government has also proposed amending laws to prohibit 8,600 licenced restaurants and bars from selling alcohol in an effort to promote social distancing. Lam added the measure aims to prevent viral transmission in intimate settings.

you can still go out to your favorite chicken hotpot place with the whole fam but don't order a beer otherwise you'll get the plague.

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