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Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



All of that is assuming that ICR is scum and Pod isn't just loving with us.

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Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Hal Incandenza posted:

Wait, sorry, are you saying that you actually PURPOSELY targeted yourself and you knew you never cleared ICR?

No, I did not purposely self target, knew meaning that she saw me target myself and let us know. Not knew what I knew.

Mr. Steak
May 8, 2013

T.T.D.D.T.D.D

Thug lyfe.


Grandicap posted:

Ok, in my mind I'm just going to make up some odds of different scumteams to make me feel better about myself when I make the wrong decision later.

Scumteam A: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, Hal Incandenza - 44%
Scumteam B: merk, IronChefRamen, Mr. Steak, Murmur Twin - 33%
Scumteam C: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, George Kansas - 20%
Scumteam D: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, King Burgandy - 2.5%
Scumteam E: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, Bifauxnen - 0.5%

just my curiosity, and like.... idk, fun...? could you pretend you got a PM from the mod just now confirming me and mmt as town? and where would you distribute that 33% among the rest?

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Mr. Steak posted:

just my curiosity, and like.... idk, fun...? could you pretend you got a PM from the mod just now confirming me and mmt as town? and where would you distribute that 33% among the rest?

Grandicap posted:

Ok, in my mind I'm just going to make up some odds of different scumteams to make me feel better about myself when I make the wrong decision later.

Scumteam A: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, Hal Incandenza - 58%
Scumteam B: merk, IronChefRamen, Mr. Steak, Murmur Twin - 33%
Scumteam C: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, George Kansas - 37%
Scumteam D: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, King Burgandy - 4.5%
Scumteam E: merk, IronChefRamen, Captain Foo, Bifauxnen - 0.5%

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004



Mr. Steak posted:

hal, my man......

Lol that is awkwardly phrased in the worst way possible but the we referred to the "we" at the start of the sentence and not to the scum

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004



Grandicap posted:

No, I did not purposely self target, knew meaning that she saw me target myself and let us know. Not knew what I knew.

ah ok that makes infinitely more sense

George Kansas
Sep 1, 2008

preface all my posts with this


I keep thinking about Hal not hammering merk. Trying to get into Hal's head, from a town perspective it's boring it's just whoops I was playing a game and forgot to do the thing I wanted, which seems unlikely for somebody who was around and active at the time but whatever, but from a scum perspective I think it's actually a harder decision than I originally was thinking. At first, I was like, oh, hammering merk seems like the obviously correct thing to do as scum. There was a lot of scum on the merk vote but presumably there was town too, you would have a chance of blending in while getting a much more ambiguous result that would be worse for town. The only counter to that was that hammering would look scummy, but I didn't think that was sufficient to explain it because I think Hal could've gotten away with it tbh, and it would give enough cover to his scumbuds that it would probably be worth it. But now I'm also thinking about how if you had hammered merk and gotten the 1 scum result, it could've given a lot of cred to people like bif and myself who were holding the line and making sure that didn't happen, and I can see someone wanting to avoid that and making a calculating decision to do so

and also, this is a less important point but i can also see hal genuinely losing track of time from either alignment. scum hal could still have been playing csgo or whatever and just forget to hammer. i guess i'm just wary of using the lack of a hammer to clear hal, it made me feel a lot more townie about him at the time but now that in my mind it's either him and foo or MMT and steak, I lean him and foo.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Hal Incandenza posted:

Really if you want to test me you should put me alone (or with just merk at this point) and then if it comes back 2 scum great you just have ICR and Steak to choose between

If you put me in with ICR or steak you are coming back with 2 or 3 scum. But if it comes back three scum you have gained nothing and are in a much worse position.

Just seems like there has to be a better way to either confirm someone tonight or at least limit the unknowns so it can't end up in the worst case scenario we could be in.

If nothing else put me in with whoever you think is more townie of icr and steak, the 2 scum result would be so much better.

Would a scum Hal have advocated to put himself up alone with merk? This is when people were pretty hard on Hal being scum, so it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.
It could have been a big brain scheme, knowing town wouldn't take him up on it, and he could point to it later as how he is likely town, which he has done. But would scum Hal have taken that risk? Especially, in this scenario, at the point of this post, people were 100% on it being foo and merk, and only up in the air about steak and ICR.

I feel like this is a big point in Hal's favor.
Which leans me back towards Steak and Murmur.

What I really have for Murmur is d2 behavior. I feel like the d2 stuff is really, really bad for murmur. But since then, it's easy to put the stuff she has done in a townie light.

gently caress.

Steak is playing well, it's just that he's playing exactly as I'd suspect a scum against the wall to play, or a town against the wall.

Double gently caress.

Am I back to steak and murmur?

I am running myself in circles here.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


I think it's interesting that Hal chose to focus on defending himself rather than scumhunt from the other candidates. Yeah, he made a kb case, but he put a lot more effort into his defense. Also, I can't imagine a scenario on which we put up kb today and it's clear much of the thread feels the same.

Feels like Hal is more focused on survival than winning.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



I think avoiding the Merk hammer isn't necessarily a huge point in anyone's favor. I think there are only like two people in this thread that would have been confused by the result. I definitely wanted to do it, because in my mind, it would have gotten us our first scum confirmation, in Merk. This format definitely favors, I think, more cuddles than less.

I only held back because I thought helping MMT reset was a better result then knowing for sure Merk was scum. And she said she wasn't sure if it would be Merk or Somber if it came back 1 scum.

So yeah, doesn't mean much for me if we are talking about Hal "forgetting" to hammer, or we are talking about someone like GK pushing for Bif. As a reminder, it is entirely possible scum knew a four town cuddle would be bad for us in some significant way that would make the clears ok.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004



Somberbrero posted:

I think it's interesting that Hal chose to focus on defending himself rather than scumhunt from the other candidates. Yeah, he made a kb case, but he put a lot more effort into his defense. Also, I can't imagine a scenario on which we put up kb today and it's clear much of the thread feels the same.

Feels like Hal is more focused on survival than winning.

I have a busy morning so I have to put in effort when I can, and the first thing I saw is that pretty much everyone was saying "welp, it's probably Hal" so it seemed more prudent to try and get you to at least look at other options by showing I wasn't scum.

Also that last line is a complete throwaway, regardless of my alignment my survival is key to my faction winning.

Scum are going to be found in the people muddying the results up. Scum can make great cases against each other all day long without almost any of the normal bussing worries of losing a teammate.

I am just doing a different type of scumhunting than what you expect and that is why you are getting on me. Think about it. Scum can very easily hide behind pushing multiple other scum each day just so long as they aren't getting up all of one alignment (and apparently all town would have been good for them too). So scum just want to make sure results are ambiguous.

Take yesterday for example. Myself and others seemed to think merk/foo/mmt/steak was a good one to put up and test if we were going to test 4 and use MMT. Instead we ended up using merk/foo/icr/mmt.

Now, fmpov with mmt busting the ICR investigation it was most likely that ICR and MMT were on different teams so it made the most sense to swap them out because we would most likely come up with 2 or 4 scum in that situation, as opposed to mmt and steak or foo who were much more likely to be on the same team (either scum or town) as MMT and therefore most likely to come back with the dreaded "3 scum" result.

Scumhunting by peoples intentions in this game is just as valid as scumhunting by posting, sorry if you can't see it that way

Mr. Steak
May 8, 2013

T.T.D.D.T.D.D

Thug lyfe.


Grandicap posted:

Would a scum Hal have advocated to put himself up alone with merk? This is when people were pretty hard on Hal being scum, so it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.
It could have been a big brain scheme, knowing town wouldn't take him up on it, and he could point to it later as how he is likely town, which he has done. But would scum Hal have taken that risk? Especially, in this scenario, at the point of this post, people were 100% on it being foo and merk, and only up in the air about steak and ICR.

I feel like this is a big point in Hal's favor.
Which leans me back towards Steak and Murmur.

What I really have for Murmur is d2 behavior. I feel like the d2 stuff is really, really bad for murmur. But since then, it's easy to put the stuff she has done in a townie light.

gently caress.

Steak is playing well, it's just that he's playing exactly as I'd suspect a scum against the wall to play, or a town against the wall.

Double gently caress.

Am I back to steak and murmur?

I am running myself in circles here.

i agree with all of your hal analysis here. i'm very much not fully convinced he's scum. and this recent posting is making it even harder to justify a scum read on him. but it does annoy me that your only other option then is me/mmt. cuz for me i'm oscillating between hal and gk, and they honestly have equal chance of being correct. if hal's actually scum, then thats not an issue because lots of people are down for that vote already, but im nervous because im starting to think more and more that it's actually gk, and in that case it'll be really loving hard to get those votes. im so tired of having to defend myself. i just want to focus on who's the last scum, not convincing town of my innocence

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



Grandicap posted:

Would a scum Hal have advocated to put himself up alone with merk? This is when people were pretty hard on Hal being scum, so it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.
It could have been a big brain scheme, knowing town wouldn't take him up on it, and he could point to it later as how he is likely town, which he has done. But would scum Hal have taken that risk? Especially, in this scenario, at the point of this post, people were 100% on it being foo and merk, and only up in the air about steak and ICR.

Sure. Why not? This is similar to in a game with a day cop when the scum when asked are forced to say "Cop me!".

Play it out, it was unlikely it was the chosen cuddle. But even if it WAS, you are still left with the other bits of ambiguity going into the day. If Hal is scum and we cuddle Hal/Merk yesterday, we still don't know for 100% certain who the other 2 scum are. We all have our theories, but there is still wiggle room.

I'm still liking Hal's posting at the moment(outside the potential slip). But it is definitely possible.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



I still so much want to believe this and the followups are a scum interaction

merk posted:

Are you hockletock?

George Kansas posted:

i'm BottleKnight

Not quoting them all now, but it allowed for some fun interactions later in the day without having to treat any of them seriously. From looking at Merk's posting, it appears these are the only interactions with or about GK the entire game.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



Gonna have to do this reread in pieces since I've got work/meetings all day, and Numenera tonight.

George Kansas posted:

i thought about it while at work and actually i think moat is pulling a "so stupid they couldn't possibly think i'm scum" action

he seemed to think it was really funny when it wasn't very funny at all, and it's such a big gently caress up to do as town that i'm really leaning more likely scum

George Kansas posted:

i'll revisit this thought after a flip but i think there's really very little logic for even reckless town to do this

Definitely a point in favor of the scum GK here. But standing alone, it doesn't mean much yet.

Mr. Steak
May 8, 2013

T.T.D.D.T.D.D

Thug lyfe.


King Burgundy posted:

Gonna have to do this reread in pieces since I've got work/meetings all day, and Numenera tonight.



Definitely a point in favor of the scum GK here. But standing alone, it doesn't mean much yet.

im not seeing how these posts make him sound scummy

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



More on moat:

George Kansas posted:



i want to see the flip but i'm really feeling moat for scum rn

But adhering to logic here, in his favor:

George Kansas posted:

what why

i think moat is lookin scummy but i see actually zero advantage to lunching today vs. reassessing tomorrow with more info

i don't possibly see why you would be so confident that you would not want to wait

Interesting blend here:

George Kansas posted:

I'm leaning town on merk and will not vote him.

I don't really like Hal's posts as I've made clear but I don't really feel him for scum either, I agree with merk's point that Hal is playing like he normally does.

ICR, however,


He said that he's busy and I get that but he's posted pretty regularly 7 times since then and posted literally zero content. Just go and look at the post history. Just posting about guillotines and not engaging with the thread at all, despite seeming to read it. Reads like scum to me.

I would rather us just wait for the flip but ICR is definitely highest on my "percentage chance to hit scum" radar-------

After typing up this post I thought "wow i wonder how much time until deadline it's getting kinda late" and it's 41 minutes. So I was gonna end this post with a vote for ICR but instead, I'll just wait and revisit this case tomorrow.

So the Merk defense is interesting. If the scum know about what this game is going to be, could be trying to sell Merk as town in the hopes he makes it through the chaos even if no one else does. While still giving us a bus on ICR for cred later. But I can also see this as pretty decent scum strat in general even without foreknowledge. Hmmm.

--- Changed my mind after this last part, including because I don't want to waste my work. Posting this in it's own post so it doesn't muddle my message.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



So yeah, to help inform my view on GK, went back and looked at Merk again. What were the other scum doing. From my point of view, Merk votes for zero scum on D1. I've pointed this out previously, but this is actually a significant chain of posts:

merk posted:

Steak's entire content today is a joke/serious 'first post' analysis and then a promise to do more without doing more. ##vote Steak

Initially Merk's wants to no cuddle, but once prompted into potentially not doing that by Bif, this is his initial stab at a second candidate and he places the vote down. I don't think Merk puts up a scum in this spot.

Then:

merk posted:

ICR has no content today but made sure to chime in weirdly on Steak and then again after a claim was made. Potentially awkward scum not knowing how to interact with the thread.

Very light bus here, but no vote, still focused on Steak.

merk posted:

This is an odd callout. Do you think Bif is scum?

The above post is the start of a bit of back and forth with Foo, but it is a bit time shifted since Foo is responding to an earlier post. I recommend just clicking on the link for that one and reading it in context. This chain definitely throws the same level of light bussing shade Foo's way as his ICR post above.

merk posted:

Hal was voting KB here but noting that he thinks SSV is scummy?

This could be scum Hal trying to see where the chips are going to fall for the day before voting again.

And here is some similar light shade on Hal.

---

Looking at this chain, it really feels like when prompted for a second cuddle, Merk thought about how he'd spent the day so far and realized he hadn't interacted with/bussed his teammates yet. So he puts an initial read/vote down on town to start things off. But then does a series of light touches on his other scum buds to make sure he's done his due diligence.

After this, he returns to no cuddle or Somber for the rest of the day. For the record, I think this proves scum didn't know about how this game would go. Otherwise his alternative to night cuddle would NOT be to put up a second town.

Anyway, from this alone, I'm now leaning back towards Hal as the scum, but there is one other piece I want to go find.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



Follow up on that last post, he also flirts briefly with voting MMT. So point still stands, voting only people I think are town, or no cuddle.

---

Anyway, following day, he misses most of the action. Grandi has already been voted out when he comes into the thread. Now he seems desperate to get a scum cuddled. He rotates between putting himself up or putting Hal up for almost the entire day and trying to prevent any more town from going up:

merk posted:

I also think a Moat vote is bad now. If Grandi is scum, he clearly wants you to vote Moat, no? What happens in a Grandi/Moat where just one is scum?

I’d assume Grandi. What would you think there?

merk posted:

Rushing into a Grandi vote where half of the voters thinks he's town and half think he's scum was pretty dumb.

merk posted:

Well. ##vote merk makes sense to me right this second.

Thinking more.

---

There is some interaction with Hal here where Hal seems to be going for the same result, for example:

Hal Incandenza posted:

I'm a little wary of some of grandis's posting today but I think on balance I lean town so I guess I am down to vote people I think are town. I doubt people will vote for me but I think I am good to ##vote merk and I'd prefer to stop at 3 people still.

So Hal and Merk coming at this from slightly different angles, but the goal is the same. Merk is town, so let's put him up next.

Hal Incandenza posted:

Presuming scum did not know the setup and it's what we think it is, my towniest picks are merk, steak, grandi and maybe moat
[...]

A probable 1 scum cuddle.

---

Time elapses, Merk cuddle isn't happening, Merk tries a different tack:

merk posted:

##vote Hal

There’s at least one scum lynched already. May as well go for max information.

He then rotates back and forth between himself and Hal for most of the rest of the day. He briefly seems to give up, and votes Bif, but ends up back on himself.

---

I think Hal is playing a really good scum game. I was feeling really town on him from his tone/content over the last few days, but examining the interactions with the known scum, I think it must be Hal.

Bifauxnen
Aug 11, 2010

Resurrected
Living in a lighthouse
The lions and the lambs ain't sleeping yet


Somberbrero posted:

I think it's interesting that Hal chose to focus on defending himself rather than scumhunt from the other candidates. Yeah, he made a kb case, but he put a lot more effort into his defense. Also, I can't imagine a scenario on which we put up kb today and it's clear much of the thread feels the same.

Feels like Hal is more focused on survival than winning.

Yeah I'm just getting mad Fate Soldiers feels here where Hal should absolutely be the lunch and we're about to talk ourselves out of it for no good reason.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



So yeah, I think we should vote Foo, and Hal, to end this day and win the game.

Bifauxnen
Aug 11, 2010

Resurrected
Living in a lighthouse
The lions and the lambs ain't sleeping yet


Mr. Steak posted:

but it does annoy me that your only other option then is me/mmt. cuz for me i'm oscillating between hal and gk,

Steak, can you just hit the question mark on GK? I think that'll help. Especially when you get to the Townie Lunch Day and he immediately gets down to business with no hedging just casting a vote on me, and continues to actively fight for that result while others are still trying to argue for merk even if they're holding back from making that move themselves.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



I think I'm ready to either win or lose.

##vote Foo

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



Bifauxnen posted:

Steak, can you just hit the question mark on GK? I think that'll help. Especially when you get to the Townie Lunch Day and he immediately gets down to business with no hedging just casting a vote on me, and continues to actively fight for that result while others are still trying to argue for merk even if they're holding back from making that move themselves.

Yeah, I started to go down that road and I could see hints of possible scum, but it didn't hold together. Like I was thinking when he was doing towny focused things it may have just been for cred, but looking at the full picture and what the other scum were doing, I think not.

Like the most solid piece of evidence we have right now is Merk as scum. Everything has to be driving from that.

I don't think I'm going to be swayed from my current position having relooked at things.

Bifauxnen
Aug 11, 2010

Resurrected
Living in a lighthouse
The lions and the lambs ain't sleeping yet


Just caught up now with the last KB effortposts and I'm feeling pretty good about wrapping things up now too.

##vote Foo

Don't rush it if some of y'all are still nervous, though.

Bifauxnen
Aug 11, 2010

Resurrected
Living in a lighthouse
The lions and the lambs ain't sleeping yet


If it's MT after all though I'm gonna wear my wilted rose pin for a week lmao

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


Don't you love farce?

##vote foo

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



##vote Foo

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'


Clever Betty

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004



Oh man

Podima
Nov 4, 2009

You've got the Shine
You've got the power

lomarf


Votecount for Day 4

Captain Foo (6): Murmur Twin, Mr. Steak, Moatillata, Moatillata, Grandicap, Bifauxnen, Somberbrero, King Burgundy
Mr. Steak (1): Captain Foo

Not Voting (4): George Kansas, Hal Incandenza, Moatillata, SirSamVimes

With 11 people still alive, it took 6 votes to execute.
The current deadline is April 25th, 2020 at noon EDT -- that's in about 21 hours, 52 minutes.

Podima
Nov 4, 2009

You've got the Shine
You've got the power

lomarf




As you lead the third victim to their noose, the shadows around you lengthen from all directions - leaning in to see what may come of your choice. The noose tightens, wreathed in fire, and they are silenced... but not dead yet, like the others.

Three souls await their judgment. Who will be the final one on offer?

Though the air is still and heavy, you hear the familiar creaking of something heavy swinging to and fro... drawing closer and closer with each arc.




Captain Foo, aka Richie Talley, has been executed!

Day 4 continues. Votes have been reset. Deadline is extended by eight hours to 8 PM EDT, Saturday 25-APR. [~29 hours]

Votecount for Day 4



Not Voting (10): Bifauxnen, George Kansas, Grandicap, Hal Incandenza, King Burgundy, Moatillata, Mr. Steak, Murmur Twin, SirSamVimes, Somberbrero

With 10 people still alive, it takes 6 votes to execute.
The current deadline is April 25th, 2020 at 8 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 1 day, 5 hours.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Every time it takes Pod more than like 30 seconds to post the flip my heart skips a beat.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Ok, so murmur and steak are now cleared.
It is just BK or Hal. An it looks like we're going Hal.

I feel as good as is possible in this scenario.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!



Grandicap posted:

Ok, so murmur and steak are now cleared.
It is just BK or Hal. An it looks like we're going Hal.

I feel as good as is possible in this scenario.

Yeah, I think the right move here is Hal. But there is no rush here on this final vote. If people have more to say or want to look through posts and case, maybe there is something we are missing.

Bifauxnen
Aug 11, 2010

Resurrected
Living in a lighthouse
The lions and the lambs ain't sleeping yet


Grandicap posted:

Ok, so murmur and steak are now cleared.
It is just BK or Hal. An it looks like we're going Hal.

I feel as good as is possible in this scenario.

I don't buy into the "Pod would end the game immediately" theory at all btw, but Foo just doing a little sad face instead of blowing up about how stupid we are is a drat good sign imo

##vote Hal

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



Bifauxnen posted:

I don't buy into the "Pod would end the game immediately" theory at all btw, but Foo just doing a little sad face instead of blowing up about how stupid we are is a drat good sign imo

##vote Hal

Nah, but steak and murmur gloating now that we were sunk would be a thing.

Somberbrero
Feb 14, 2009

The Pit Awaits


Guess let's just find out then

##vote hal

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Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006



##vote Hal

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