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Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

facialimpediment posted:

The rift will be there, no need to create it. Donnie's about to clusterfuck his entire campaign organization.

https://x.com/hugolowell/status/1824106741703004253?t=AHVCTWL_No7lc_HHwzOM0w&s=19

https://x.com/tarapalmeri/status/1824103670402699339?t=Wbm-ZUniCZooknhVJpt08w&s=19

This is a who's who of no-poo poo gropers and weird memers and they're all going to be fighting for influences and trying to get their ideas through. Campaigns are a mess in the best of times and Donnie just invited a whole bunch of weirdos and old friends to come poo poo on the floor.

Assuming there will be a clear hierarchy & division of responsibilities & no one will treat this as a way to write themselves seven figure consulting checks while forgetting to do ad buys, lol.

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facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
jesus loving this is about miriam adelson getting the presidential medal of freedom:

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1824260335521398845

goatsestretchgoals
Jun 4, 2011

loving losers, I prefer war heroes who can stand on their own two feet

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

facialimpediment posted:

jesus loving this is about miriam adelson getting the presidential medal of freedom:

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1824260335521398845

We really need to have a conversation about putting grandpa in a care facility. His pudding brains are getting worse.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016
As soon as someone tells him that Obama gave Biden the Presidential Medal of Freedom he’s going to think it’s a radical left fake news award.

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

boop the snoot posted:

As soon as someone tells him that Obama gave Biden the Presidential Medal of Freedom he’s going to think it’s a radical left fake news award.

I can feel the soundbite of him saying "What's so great about freedom anyway?" already.

Notahippie
Feb 4, 2003

Kids, it's not cool to have Shane MacGowan teeth

lightpole posted:

Each sample point should help decrease margin of error but I don't care enough to actually dig out textbooks. Each n has an independent margin of error but in aggregate that margin should decrease since its being confirmed by multiple independent ns. Or something like that.

Yeah, in principle the thing about MOEs is that error should be distributed around the true mean on both sides. So in the example given, if the real mean is K + 3, then there should be an equal chance of getting K-1 and K+4 in any given poll. In a "smooth frictionless sphere" kind of model, getting multiple K+3 results randomly is unlikely and reinforces the idea that the real mean is close to K+3.

The issue is that nobody knows what the hell is going on these days with polling as far as real-world sampling issues goes, so the theory may lag reality by a bit.

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

Notahippie posted:

The issue is that nobody knows what the hell is going on these days with polling as far as real-world sampling issues goes, so the theory may lag reality by a bit.

There's also that real world polling errors are probably not independent. (which you need for several samples narrowing the margin) See "shy trump voters", etc. This is largely why "reputable" polling had Hillary at some insane number (98%?) while 538 assumed some amount of polling error dependence and had it at 70/30.

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


Xakura posted:

There's also that real world polling errors are probably not independent. (which you need for several samples narrowing the margin) See "shy trump voters", etc. This is largely why "reputable" polling had Hillary at some insane number (98%?) while 538 assumed some amount of polling error dependence and had it at 70/30.

Nate Silver does not deserve nearly as much flak as he took over the polls being wrong in 2016, when 538 was perhaps the most correct about underlying sample bias and warning that Trump had a reasonable chance.

However he deserves more flak than he currently gets since he decided being decent at statistics means he is now a politics knower and regularly shits out terrible opinions.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

so can I keep calling him Nate Bronze because that's real fun for me

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

Soylent Pudding posted:

However he deserves more flak than he currently gets since he decided being decent at statistics means he is now a politics knower and regularly shits out terrible opinions.

For sure, but my post already had too many parentheses

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

shame on an IGA posted:

so can I keep calling him Nate Bronze because that's real fun for me

Bronze is useful, though. Nate Copper?

McNally
Sep 12, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?

OddObserver posted:

Bronze is useful, though. Nate Copper?

Are you saying copper isn't useful?

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


Depends on if the ingots are of inferior quality.

Fivemarks
Feb 21, 2015
Nate "Ea-Nasir" Copper.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

McNally posted:

Are you saying copper isn't useful?

Nate Thulium

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Soylent Pudding posted:

Nate Silver does not deserve nearly as much flak as he took over the polls being wrong in 2016, when 538 was perhaps the most correct about underlying sample bias and warning that Trump had a reasonable chance.

However he deserves more flak than he currently gets since he decided being decent at statistics means he is now a politics knower and regularly shits out terrible opinions.

Has he reached the point where he’s done more punditry than statistics work?

McNally
Sep 12, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?

Elviscat posted:

Nate Thulium

Clearly you've never heard of thulium lasers.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.
Details on Harris' economic platform she announced today.

quote:

Amid more than a dozen new economic policies aimed at “lowering costs for American families,” the most striking proposals were for the elimination of medical debt for millions of Americans; the “first-ever” ban on price gouging for groceries and food; a cap on prescription drug costs; a $25,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers; and a child tax credit that would provide $6,000 per child to families for the first year of a baby’s life.

The last item followed a suggestion earlier this month from JD Vance, the GOP vice-presidential nominee, that the credit be raised from $2,000 per child to $5,000. Harris is also calling for restoring the Biden administration’s child tax credit that expired at the end of 2021, which raised the benefit for most families from $2,000 per child to $3,000.

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1824490793815642554

:lol: how is he so bad at this?

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus
ethnic enclaves

like chinatown?

god what a loving goober

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



ded posted:

ethnic enclaves

like chinatown?

god what a loving goober racist with a bull horn

LongDarkNight
Oct 25, 2010

It's like watching the collapse of Western civilization in fast forward.
Oven Wrangler
Anyone seen the movie China Girl? What if Italians and Chinese people lived side by side?

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Hoo boy guys, I just saw the documentary "Birth of a Nation", and lemme tell you, it shows how we definitely need to

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

LongDarkNight
Oct 25, 2010

It's like watching the collapse of Western civilization in fast forward.
Oven Wrangler
...go back in time and beat Woodrow Wilson with baseball bats?

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 27, 2008

https://x.com/ShawnHils/status/1824462661527986451

This is clearly a man who has never walked a GSD before.

Edit: also watch Vance crater even harder when it comes out that he rehomed the dog for biting the love of his life


That cute sectional he got from West Elm

pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Aug 16, 2024

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

LongDarkNight posted:

...go back in time and beat Woodrow Wilson with baseball bats?

Where are we meeting up at?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

DEER CRACKERS

Xakura posted:

There's also that real world polling errors are probably not independent. (which you need for several samples narrowing the margin) See "shy trump voters", etc. This is largely why "reputable" polling had Hillary at some insane number (98%?) while 538 assumed some amount of polling error dependence and had it at 70/30.

Yeah but regarding the question about the margin of error: these unknown unknowns aren’t even figured into it. The margin of error published alongside a poll only accounts for potential lumpy sampling.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
The only thing I actually remember from my statistics class was the opening to the YouTube videos we watched while doing our homework was something like "Youre a totally great and fantastic person and very smart and wonderful and don't kill yourself statistics is very very difficult."

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008


forget about the blacks, we need to knock the Irish down a peg

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

lightpole posted:

The only thing I actually remember from my statistics class was the opening to the YouTube videos we watched while doing our homework was something like "Youre a totally great and fantastic person and very smart and wonderful and don't kill yourself statistics is very very difficult."
https://www.reddit.com/r/EngineeringStudents/comments/dx9tgv/the_opening_paragraph_to_goodsteins_textbook/

quote:

Ludwig Boltzman, who spent much of his life studying statistical mechanics, died in 1906, by his own hand. Paul Ehrenfest, carrying on the work, died similarly in 1933. Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics.

MonkeyFit
May 13, 2009

Tiny Timbs posted:

forget about the blacks, we need to knock the Irish down a peg

When you're so loving white, even white people hate you.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





pantslesswithwolves posted:

https://x.com/ShawnHils/status/1824462661527986451

This is clearly a man who has never walked a GSD before.


Yeah what the christ he had like a couple of fingers on the leash

With Luca I had my whole hand through the loop and wrapped it around my hand a couple times

GSDs are strong as gently caress and that one did not look happy either

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
According to Trump's legally required financial disclosure forms, he made $300k on MAGA Bibles. That's sad, but I can't decide for which reason.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Stultus Maximus posted:

According to Trump's legally required financial disclosure forms, he made $300k on MAGA Bibles. That's sad, but I can't decide for which reason.

Weren't those like 60 bucks each on launch? 300k at that price point is... lowish, especially with that built in audience.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003

pantslesswithwolves posted:

https://x.com/ShawnHils/status/1824462661527986451

This is clearly a man who has never walked a GSD before.

Edit: also watch Vance crater even harder when it comes out that he rehomed the dog for biting the love of his life


That cute sectional he got from West Elm

proper caption probably should be 'Atlas has brought his owner, JD Vance, to campaign with him today in Milwaukee.' lol at the 2 fingers loosely on the leash grip there

lol that on exit the dog goes first, visually inspects that it's safe and then lets vance cross

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:39 on Aug 17, 2024

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Compare and contrast to America's Midwest Dad

https://x.com/Tim_Walz/status/1824506988849410155?t=vwP6CMkvRAxS1wdAQHZnbg&s=19

MonkeyFit
May 13, 2009
gently caress. He should absolutely do a fireside chats kind of thing and call it Timtalk.

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus

A.o.D. posted:

Weren't those like 60 bucks each on launch? 300k at that price point is... lowish, especially with that built in audience.

300k profit. his cut was prob around 5 dollars each with others taking cuts as well.

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Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

Platystemon posted:

Yeah but regarding the question about the margin of error: these unknown unknowns aren’t even figured into it. The margin of error published alongside a poll only accounts for potential lumpy sampling.

But when you sample you correct for age/income/ethnicity yeah? That includes assumptions that are not independent across different polls.

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