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facialimpediment posted:The rift will be there, no need to create it. Donnie's about to clusterfuck his entire campaign organization. Assuming there will be a clear hierarchy & division of responsibilities & no one will treat this as a way to write themselves seven figure consulting checks while forgetting to do ad buys, lol.
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Aug 16, 2024 03:15
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jesus loving this is about miriam adelson getting the presidential medal of freedom: https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1824260335521398845
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Aug 16, 2024 03:15
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loving losers, I prefer war heroes who can stand on their own two feet
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Aug 16, 2024 08:58
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facialimpediment posted:jesus loving this is about miriam adelson getting the presidential medal of freedom: We really need to have a conversation about putting grandpa in a care facility. His pudding brains are getting worse.
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Aug 16, 2024 12:56
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As soon as someone tells him that Obama gave Biden the Presidential Medal of Freedom he’s going to think it’s a radical left fake news award.
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Aug 16, 2024 13:10
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boop the snoot posted:As soon as someone tells him that Obama gave Biden the Presidential Medal of Freedom he’s going to think it’s a radical left fake news award. I can feel the soundbite of him saying "What's so great about freedom anyway?" already.
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Aug 16, 2024 13:14
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lightpole posted:Each sample point should help decrease margin of error but I don't care enough to actually dig out textbooks. Each n has an independent margin of error but in aggregate that margin should decrease since its being confirmed by multiple independent ns. Or something like that. Yeah, in principle the thing about MOEs is that error should be distributed around the true mean on both sides. So in the example given, if the real mean is K + 3, then there should be an equal chance of getting K-1 and K+4 in any given poll. In a "smooth frictionless sphere" kind of model, getting multiple K+3 results randomly is unlikely and reinforces the idea that the real mean is close to K+3. The issue is that nobody knows what the hell is going on these days with polling as far as real-world sampling issues goes, so the theory may lag reality by a bit.
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Aug 16, 2024 15:58
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Notahippie posted:The issue is that nobody knows what the hell is going on these days with polling as far as real-world sampling issues goes, so the theory may lag reality by a bit. There's also that real world polling errors are probably not independent. (which you need for several samples narrowing the margin) See "shy trump voters", etc. This is largely why "reputable" polling had Hillary at some insane number (98%?) while 538 assumed some amount of polling error dependence and had it at 70/30.
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Aug 16, 2024 17:01
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Xakura posted:There's also that real world polling errors are probably not independent. (which you need for several samples narrowing the margin) See "shy trump voters", etc. This is largely why "reputable" polling had Hillary at some insane number (98%?) while 538 assumed some amount of polling error dependence and had it at 70/30. Nate Silver does not deserve nearly as much flak as he took over the polls being wrong in 2016, when 538 was perhaps the most correct about underlying sample bias and warning that Trump had a reasonable chance. However he deserves more flak than he currently gets since he decided being decent at statistics means he is now a politics knower and regularly shits out terrible opinions.
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Aug 16, 2024 17:08
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so can I keep calling him Nate Bronze because that's real fun for me
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Aug 16, 2024 17:23
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Soylent Pudding posted:However he deserves more flak than he currently gets since he decided being decent at statistics means he is now a politics knower and regularly shits out terrible opinions. For sure, but my post already had too many parentheses
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Aug 16, 2024 17:28
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shame on an IGA posted:so can I keep calling him Nate Bronze because that's real fun for me Bronze is useful, though. Nate Copper?
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Aug 16, 2024 17:37
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OddObserver posted:Bronze is useful, though. Nate Copper? Are you saying copper isn't useful?
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Aug 16, 2024 17:41
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Depends on if the ingots are of inferior quality.
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Aug 16, 2024 17:46
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Nate "Ea-Nasir" Copper.
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Aug 16, 2024 17:46
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McNally posted:Are you saying copper isn't useful? Nate Thulium
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Aug 16, 2024 17:47
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Soylent Pudding posted:Nate Silver does not deserve nearly as much flak as he took over the polls being wrong in 2016, when 538 was perhaps the most correct about underlying sample bias and warning that Trump had a reasonable chance. Has he reached the point where he’s done more punditry than statistics work?
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Aug 16, 2024 17:49
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Elviscat posted:Nate Thulium Clearly you've never heard of thulium lasers.
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Aug 16, 2024 18:00
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Details on Harris' economic platform she announced today.quote:Amid more than a dozen new economic policies aimed at “lowering costs for American families,” the most striking proposals were for the elimination of medical debt for millions of Americans; the “first-ever” ban on price gouging for groceries and food; a cap on prescription drug costs; a $25,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers; and a child tax credit that would provide $6,000 per child to families for the first year of a baby’s life.
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Aug 16, 2024 18:01
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https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1824490793815642554 how is he so bad at this?
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Aug 16, 2024 18:29
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ethnic enclaves like chinatown? god what a loving goober
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Aug 16, 2024 18:31
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ded posted:ethnic enclaves
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Aug 16, 2024 18:34
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Anyone seen the movie China Girl? What if Italians and Chinese people lived side by side?
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Aug 16, 2024 18:36
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Hoo boy guys, I just saw the documentary "Birth of a Nation", and lemme tell you, it shows how we definitely need to (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2024 18:44
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...go back in time and beat Woodrow Wilson with baseball bats?
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Aug 16, 2024 19:12
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https://x.com/ShawnHils/status/1824462661527986451 This is clearly a man who has never walked a GSD before. Edit: also watch Vance crater even harder when it comes out that he rehomed the dog for biting the love of his life That cute sectional he got from West Elm pantslesswithwolves fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Aug 16, 2024 |
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Aug 16, 2024 20:13
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LongDarkNight posted:...go back in time and beat Woodrow Wilson with baseball bats? Where are we meeting up at?
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Aug 16, 2024 20:36
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Xakura posted:There's also that real world polling errors are probably not independent. (which you need for several samples narrowing the margin) See "shy trump voters", etc. This is largely why "reputable" polling had Hillary at some insane number (98%?) while 538 assumed some amount of polling error dependence and had it at 70/30. Yeah but regarding the question about the margin of error: these unknown unknowns aren’t even figured into it. The margin of error published alongside a poll only accounts for potential lumpy sampling.
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Aug 16, 2024 21:00
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The only thing I actually remember from my statistics class was the opening to the YouTube videos we watched while doing our homework was something like "Youre a totally great and fantastic person and very smart and wonderful and don't kill yourself statistics is very very difficult."
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Aug 16, 2024 21:54
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Handsome Ralph posted:https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1824490793815642554 forget about the blacks, we need to knock the Irish down a peg
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Aug 16, 2024 22:18
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lightpole posted:The only thing I actually remember from my statistics class was the opening to the YouTube videos we watched while doing our homework was something like "Youre a totally great and fantastic person and very smart and wonderful and don't kill yourself statistics is very very difficult." quote:Ludwig Boltzman, who spent much of his life studying statistical mechanics, died in 1906, by his own hand. Paul Ehrenfest, carrying on the work, died similarly in 1933. Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics.
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Aug 16, 2024 22:29
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Tiny Timbs posted:forget about the blacks, we need to knock the Irish down a peg When you're so loving white, even white people hate you.
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Aug 16, 2024 22:40
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pantslesswithwolves posted:https://x.com/ShawnHils/status/1824462661527986451 Yeah what the christ he had like a couple of fingers on the leash With Luca I had my whole hand through the loop and wrapped it around my hand a couple times GSDs are strong as gently caress and that one did not look happy either
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Aug 17, 2024 00:18
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According to Trump's legally required financial disclosure forms, he made $300k on MAGA Bibles. That's sad, but I can't decide for which reason.
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Aug 17, 2024 00:42
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Stultus Maximus posted:According to Trump's legally required financial disclosure forms, he made $300k on MAGA Bibles. That's sad, but I can't decide for which reason. Weren't those like 60 bucks each on launch? 300k at that price point is... lowish, especially with that built in audience.
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Aug 17, 2024 02:22
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pantslesswithwolves posted:https://x.com/ShawnHils/status/1824462661527986451 proper caption probably should be 'Atlas has brought his owner, JD Vance, to campaign with him today in Milwaukee.' lol at the 2 fingers loosely on the leash grip there lol that on exit the dog goes first, visually inspects that it's safe and then lets vance cross Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:39 on Aug 17, 2024 |
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Aug 17, 2024 02:32
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Compare and contrast to America's Midwest Dad https://x.com/Tim_Walz/status/1824506988849410155?t=vwP6CMkvRAxS1wdAQHZnbg&s=19
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Aug 17, 2024 03:03
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gently caress. He should absolutely do a fireside chats kind of thing and call it Timtalk.
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Aug 17, 2024 03:19
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A.o.D. posted:Weren't those like 60 bucks each on launch? 300k at that price point is... lowish, especially with that built in audience. 300k profit. his cut was prob around 5 dollars each with others taking cuts as well.
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Aug 17, 2024 03:23
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Platystemon posted:Yeah but regarding the question about the margin of error: these unknown unknowns aren’t even figured into it. The margin of error published alongside a poll only accounts for potential lumpy sampling. But when you sample you correct for age/income/ethnicity yeah? That includes assumptions that are not independent across different polls.
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Aug 17, 2024 07:45
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