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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Yeah, and on top of that they're correcting for them because it's not actually a random sample to start with --- which means it's more hand waving than math.

Edit: fixed phrasing.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 11:27 on Aug 17, 2024

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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Xakura posted:

But when you sample you correct for age/income/ethnicity yeah? That includes assumptions that are not independent across different polls.

Yeah, I didn't want to turn this into the Polling Discussion chat so I was keeping it limited to a very specific statistical question. It's possible, maybe even likely, that all the polls aren't sampling or correcting accurately, but that's not something we can really know until November 6th.

This was prompted by someone in the GBS election thread posting half a dozen polls that were all Harris up by a couple points, and someone said "well they're all within the margin of error". Which made me curious how that works across multiple polls.

psydude
Mar 31, 2008

Wingnut Ninja posted:

Yeah, I didn't want to turn this into the Polling Discussion chat so I was keeping it limited to a very specific statistical question. It's possible, maybe even likely, that all the polls aren't sampling or correcting accurately, but that's not something we can really know until November 6th.

This was prompted by someone in the GBS election thread posting half a dozen polls that were all Harris up by a couple points, and someone said "well they're all within the margin of error". Which made me curious how that works across multiple polls.

This is why the more sophisticated forecasting models use polling data combined with other factors like state-level economic data, historical polling error, revealed partisan preference in recent elections, etc. to provide a better approximation of the candidate's likelihood of winning specific electoral votes.

Harris' campaign clearly isn't resting on their laurels based upon polling data, unlike the Clinton campaign 8 years earlier.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

I'm still registered Republican. I've noticed that while all the voters in the house are getting rare Dem mailers, I'm the only one getting Rep mailers. And getting them loving daily. Most are for State and local, but also national based.

This seems to jive with their national strategy of "we only need our base, and our claims of fraud"

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Republicans are still struggling with their attack lines

https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1824273352619446487

https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1824235156263383094

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

bulletsponge13 posted:

I'm still registered Republican. I've noticed that while all the voters in the house are getting rare Dem mailers, I'm the only one getting Rep mailers. And getting them loving daily. Most are for State and local, but also national based.

This seems to jive with their national strategy of "we only need our base, and our claims of fraud"

Part of it is that it's a public record if you voted and which primary you voted in (if it's a closed, registration-required primary). You've likely been identified as a Republican Primary Voter, so you get Republican Primary Voter poo poo. One of the biggest expenditures of campaign funding is on identifying valid addresses and phone numbers to spam with poo poo.

That's also why people get emails about SIGN YOUR NAME ON AMERICA'S BEST AND WETTEST PRESIDENT. They're looking to validate which emails are still valid, maybe get a number/address, and spam the mailers.

Every now and then I'll get a mailer that's like CANDIDATE JOE ARPAIO II WILL SECURE OUR BORDERS and giggle at the wasted funds they spent on getting that to me.

Stultus Maximus posted:

Republicans are still struggling with their attack lines

It's really, really bad. They're trying to fling insults out of their bubble and they just bounce off because those bubble walls have been over-reinforced over the years. I think it was KT on bluesky that noted the entire conservative movement has developed Content Creator Brain trying to fake being outraged over the littlest things.

psydude
Mar 31, 2008

My wife's dad is a lifelong Republican and her US cell phone number is his old number, so she gets a ton of Republican fundraising spam texts. All of them are unhinged, all-caps warnings about KAM-ALLAH and TAMPON TIM planning to use your confiscated guns to march kids into pedocannibal camps.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
wisconsin dems keep trying to go after me

i havent lived/voted in wisconsin since 2012

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

wisconsin dems keep trying to go after me

i havent lived/voted in wisconsin since 2012

Wow so dems are blatantly rigging the election trying to get you to vote twice.

Unbelievable.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Now he's from Nebraska, but sheesh this isn't a JD-level turnout for a VP-solo stop.

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1824903350476775620?t=hEQIVJqtcl13_M_gnP7ruA&s=19

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

Stultus Maximus posted:

Republicans are still struggling with their attack lines

https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1824235156263383094

This has me dying laughing.



Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

wisconsin dems keep trying to go after me

i havent lived/voted in wisconsin since 2012

I'm getting about half a dozen spam calls/texts from the dems a day, and God knows how many emails, I wish they'd stop.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

DEER CRACKERS

lmao this could be “Exhibit A” in Tim Walz not being much of a spice guy

MonkeyFit
May 13, 2009

Platystemon posted:

lmao this could be “Exhibit A” in Tim Walz not being much of a spice guy

Gotta be a midwestern republican considering those things spicy.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Elviscat posted:

I'm getting about half a dozen spam calls/texts from the dems a day, and God knows how many emails, I wish they'd stop.
Yeah, I'm extremely skeptical of the efficacy of the amount of spam they're doing.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

Platystemon posted:

lmao this could be “Exhibit A” in Tim Walz not being much of a spice guy

"Mr. Walz, if you're 'not be much of a spice guy,' as you claim, then what is THIS"

*Rips cloth off of exhibit A, a teaspoon of chili powder*

*Audible gasp from the courtroom*

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

DEER CRACKERS
It’s like if Vance had said “I’m not much of a dog guy”


Platystefact rating: Confirmed.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Platystemon posted:



Platystefact

what the gently caress is that word

Basticle
Sep 12, 2011


A.o.D. posted:

what the gently caress is that word

I believe it's a play on his username and Politifact

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

Thank you, Johnny Hockey.
https://x.com/travisakers/status/1824923664854167756?t=aYFmZhzl4bz_PxFHLqh9PQ&s=19

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar
according to one of the many other dump threads that was referencing a group of people from NC that was at the rally

but the dead guy endorsement is pretty on-brand

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

DEER CRACKERS

A.o.D. posted:

what the gently caress is that word

Basticle posted:

I believe it's a play on his username and Politifact

I would have just said “Politifact rating”, but Politifact is too cowardly to make an observation like “that man was clearly introduced to the concept of dogs no early than the morning that the video was taken”.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers






lmao

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

They finally dug up some real dirt on Walz.


He's been to China.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1824916391339737511

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
I can't even be arsed to joke about this drivel.

I kinda wish Biden would just reply to every one of those clips with "But yeah, I'm the senile one" or something.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Aug 18, 2024

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus

Elviscat posted:

They finally dug up some real dirt on Walz.


He's been to China.

he was teaching during tiananmen. kind of a dangerous time for it.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Cugel the Clever posted:

Yeah, I'm extremely skeptical of the efficacy of the amount of spam they're doing.

there's efficacy in reaching voters and there's efficacy in some consultancy saying they reached/can reach X voters, and who's really gonna bother vetting the quality of the rolodex for the latter?

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

there's efficacy in reaching voters and there's efficacy in some consultancy saying they reached/can reach X voters, and who's really gonna bother vetting the quality of the rolodex for the latter?

And a lot of these organizations aren't Democrats/Republicans, but random PACs only loosely tied to the parties that are basically scams. PACs where 80% of their funding goes to fundraising or consultant fees and are more or less out to just get their leaders paid. Hard to know which side has the scammier PACs, but there are a lot of them!

Coasterphreak
May 29, 2007
I like cookies.

Elviscat posted:

They finally dug up some real dirt on Walz.


He's been to China.

lmao, I know both hard left and hard right people that have been to China, none for political or military reasons. Who gives a gently caress?

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

Thank you, Johnny Hockey.

facialimpediment posted:

And a lot of these organizations aren't Democrats/Republicans, but random PACs only loosely tied to the parties that are basically scams. PACs where 80% of their funding goes to fundraising or consultant fees and are more or less out to just get their leaders paid. Hard to know which side has the scammier PACs, but there are a lot of them!

Isn't this the RNC at this point?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

facialimpediment posted:

WaPo et al has said that the content wasn't "newsworthy" and the hacker can simply publish the poo poo elsewhere if they want to. Ordinarily, that's mealy-mouthed bullshit in comparison to BUTTERMAILS, but it's somewhat consistent with how they treated the Hunter Biden Laptop. News organizations wouldn't touch that poo poo and social media sites blocked access too. So I kinda get their standpoint - it's more consistent with 2020 than 2016.



A senior Politico writer disagrees with the explanations

quote:

It is possible that each of these outlets will eventually publish the hacked material, which reportedly includes a 271-page file, assembled as Trump was considering a running mate, assessing both the strengths and “POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES” of Ohio Sen. JD Vance. It may be that the Times, the Post, and Politico are all working to ensure that no erroneous material was deliberately inserted. But that is not the explanation they have offered so far for why they are holding off.

Iran is the alleged culprit—and that those who release the information are “doing the bidding of America’s enemies and doing exactly what they want.”

But that isn’t the primary consideration that the outlets should weigh when it comes to deciding whether to publish the materials. Their considerations should be much more narrow: Can the information be verified and is it news?

And the material that was hacked appears to be both.

The Trump campaign did not dispute the authenticity of the documents. In fact, Politico reported that “two people familiar with” the documents confirmed they “are authentic.”

Despite that, both Politico and the Washington Post have issued statements indicating the information wasn’t “newsworthy” enough to print—as of yet. Each statement left open the possibility that the publication might still write more in depth about the substance of the hacked information they received. The New York Times is not commenting.

That’s baffling. What a campaign thought about its own vice presidential candidate is inherently newsworthy.

More broadly, the file would give us clear insights into what the Trump campaign believes are political liabilities and ideological third rails in this modern campaign climate. With the benefit of recent reporting on old Vance positions and statements, we could also see the stuff that Trump’s vetting team may have missed—itself an illustration of the operation’s mindset.

60 Minutes correspondent Bill Whitaker asked if it was fair to use the DCCC hacked documents. “Life is unfair,” I replied. “And politics is unfair. My job is not to sit there and decide, ‘this is fair, and this is not.’ My job is to cover the news. And wherever the news leads, we follow.”

I would say the same thing today. The job is to cover the news. And the Vance dossier sure as hell sounds like news.

Maybe the editors at the three outlets have a good reason for not running stories on the Vance documents. I’m not privy to their newsroom conversations and I think highly of the reporters at all of these outlets. Maybe there are questions about the authenticity of parts of the documents. Maybe, in the wake of 2016, these outlets formulated a more stringent policy concerning the use of hacked materials.

Or maybe they’re working on significant stories about the documents right now. Maybe they are gathering material they can publish alongside the documents to put them in the fullest possible context.

But whatever the case, they ought to be transparent about their thinking. If the New York Times, Politico, and the Washington Post have decided that some considerations prevent them from publishing this authenticated and newsworthy information, then the least they could do is explain to the public what those considerations are.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



And that's why reporters aren't editors let alone publishers. You don't get to be the boss if you don't take orders from boss makers

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
This election does continue to be very stupid and now I have "JD Vance jizz cup" in my browser history

https://x.com/Esqueer_/status/1825147908561289276
https://x.com/MrJoKeR604/status/1825028725219483871

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
I'm not going to ask, but imagine I have.

Coasterphreak
May 29, 2007
I like cookies.
This really is the craziest timeline

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

DEER CRACKERS
They’re calling it “Dark Brandon’s secret sauce”.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.
For those wondering, the MAGA logic is that Harris has stepchildren and Walz and his wife needed IVF to conceive, so Trump and Vance are therefore ultra-manly and virile because they had direct biological kids of their own without medical assistance.

Cythereal fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Aug 18, 2024

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Cythereal posted:

For those wondering, the MAGA logic is that Harris has stepchildren and Walz and his wife needed IVF to conceive, so Trump and Vance are therefore ultra-manly and virile because they had kids of their own without medical assistance.

:what:

Y'know what? gently caress it. I'm going to the bar for a while.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



That man had control of nuclear weapons. I do not envy future people when the children ask why

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Crab Dad
Dec 28, 2002

behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB

Cythereal posted:

For those wondering, the MAGA logic is that Harris has stepchildren and Walz and his wife needed IVF to conceive, so Trump and Vance are therefore ultra-manly and virile because they had direct biological kids of their own without medical assistance.

This might be a concern if the line of presidency was hereditary and not elected.

loving weirdos.

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