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Yeah, and on top of that they're correcting for them because it's not actually a random sample to start with --- which means it's more hand waving than math. Edit: fixed phrasing. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 12:27 on Aug 17, 2024 |
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Aug 17, 2024 12:21
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Xakura posted:But when you sample you correct for age/income/ethnicity yeah? That includes assumptions that are not independent across different polls. Yeah, I didn't want to turn this into the Polling Discussion chat so I was keeping it limited to a very specific statistical question. It's possible, maybe even likely, that all the polls aren't sampling or correcting accurately, but that's not something we can really know until November 6th. This was prompted by someone in the GBS election thread posting half a dozen polls that were all Harris up by a couple points, and someone said "well they're all within the margin of error". Which made me curious how that works across multiple polls.
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Aug 17, 2024 14:28
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Wingnut Ninja posted:Yeah, I didn't want to turn this into the Polling Discussion chat so I was keeping it limited to a very specific statistical question. It's possible, maybe even likely, that all the polls aren't sampling or correcting accurately, but that's not something we can really know until November 6th. This is why the more sophisticated forecasting models use polling data combined with other factors like state-level economic data, historical polling error, revealed partisan preference in recent elections, etc. to provide a better approximation of the candidate's likelihood of winning specific electoral votes. Harris' campaign clearly isn't resting on their laurels based upon polling data, unlike the Clinton campaign 8 years earlier.
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Aug 17, 2024 16:04
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I'm still registered Republican. I've noticed that while all the voters in the house are getting rare Dem mailers, I'm the only one getting Rep mailers. And getting them loving daily. Most are for State and local, but also national based. This seems to jive with their national strategy of "we only need our base, and our claims of fraud"
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Aug 17, 2024 16:22
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Republicans are still struggling with their attack lines https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1824273352619446487 https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1824235156263383094
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Aug 17, 2024 17:01
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bulletsponge13 posted:I'm still registered Republican. I've noticed that while all the voters in the house are getting rare Dem mailers, I'm the only one getting Rep mailers. And getting them loving daily. Most are for State and local, but also national based. Part of it is that it's a public record if you voted and which primary you voted in (if it's a closed, registration-required primary). You've likely been identified as a Republican Primary Voter, so you get Republican Primary Voter poo poo. One of the biggest expenditures of campaign funding is on identifying valid addresses and phone numbers to spam with poo poo. That's also why people get emails about SIGN YOUR NAME ON AMERICA'S BEST AND WETTEST PRESIDENT. They're looking to validate which emails are still valid, maybe get a number/address, and spam the mailers. Every now and then I'll get a mailer that's like CANDIDATE JOE ARPAIO II WILL SECURE OUR BORDERS and giggle at the wasted funds they spent on getting that to me. Stultus Maximus posted:Republicans are still struggling with their attack lines It's really, really bad. They're trying to fling insults out of their bubble and they just bounce off because those bubble walls have been over-reinforced over the years. I think it was KT on bluesky that noted the entire conservative movement has developed Content Creator Brain trying to fake being outraged over the littlest things.
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Aug 17, 2024 17:26
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My wife's dad is a lifelong Republican and her US cell phone number is his old number, so she gets a ton of Republican fundraising spam texts. All of them are unhinged, all-caps warnings about KAM-ALLAH and TAMPON TIM planning to use your confiscated guns to march kids into pedocannibal camps.
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Aug 17, 2024 17:41
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wisconsin dems keep trying to go after me i havent lived/voted in wisconsin since 2012
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Aug 17, 2024 18:20
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:wisconsin dems keep trying to go after me Wow so dems are blatantly rigging the election trying to get you to vote twice. Unbelievable.
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Aug 17, 2024 18:24
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Now he's from Nebraska, but sheesh this isn't a JD-level turnout for a VP-solo stop. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1824903350476775620?t=hEQIVJqtcl13_M_gnP7ruA&s=19
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Aug 17, 2024 21:21
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Stultus Maximus posted:Republicans are still struggling with their attack lines This has me dying laughing. Qtotonibudinibudet posted:wisconsin dems keep trying to go after me I'm getting about half a dozen spam calls/texts from the dems a day, and God knows how many emails, I wish they'd stop.
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Aug 17, 2024 21:23
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lmao this could be “Exhibit A” in Tim Walz not being much of a spice guy
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Aug 17, 2024 21:36
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Platystemon posted:lmao this could be “Exhibit A” in Tim Walz not being much of a spice guy Gotta be a midwestern republican considering those things spicy.
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Aug 17, 2024 21:58
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Elviscat posted:I'm getting about half a dozen spam calls/texts from the dems a day, and God knows how many emails, I wish they'd stop.
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Aug 17, 2024 22:15
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Platystemon posted:lmao this could be “Exhibit A” in Tim Walz not being much of a spice guy "Mr. Walz, if you're 'not be much of a spice guy,' as you claim, then what is THIS" *Rips cloth off of exhibit A, a teaspoon of chili powder* *Audible gasp from the courtroom*
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Aug 18, 2024 00:20
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It’s like if Vance had said “I’m not much of a dog guy” Platystefact rating: Confirmed.
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Aug 18, 2024 00:33
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Platystemon posted:
what the gently caress is that word
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Aug 18, 2024 00:39
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A.o.D. posted:what the gently caress is that word I believe it's a play on his username and Politifact
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Aug 18, 2024 00:47
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https://x.com/travisakers/status/1824923664854167756?t=aYFmZhzl4bz_PxFHLqh9PQ&s=19
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Aug 18, 2024 01:08
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according to one of the many other dump threads that was referencing a group of people from NC that was at the rally but the dead guy endorsement is pretty on-brand
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Aug 18, 2024 01:37
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A.o.D. posted:what the gently caress is that word Basticle posted:I believe it's a play on his username and Politifact I would have just said “Politifact rating”, but Politifact is too cowardly to make an observation like “that man was clearly introduced to the concept of dogs no early than the morning that the video was taken”.
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Aug 18, 2024 01:38
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CBJSprague24 posted:https://x.com/travisakers/status/1824923664854167756?t=aYFmZhzl4bz_PxFHLqh9PQ&s=19 lmao
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Aug 18, 2024 01:39
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They finally dug up some real dirt on Walz. He's been to China.
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Aug 18, 2024 01:44
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CBJSprague24 posted:https://x.com/travisakers/status/1824923664854167756?t=aYFmZhzl4bz_PxFHLqh9PQ&s=19 https://x.com/atrupar/status/1824916391339737511
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Aug 18, 2024 01:51
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I can't even be arsed to joke about this drivel. I kinda wish Biden would just reply to every one of those clips with "But yeah, I'm the senile one" or something. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 02:13 on Aug 18, 2024 |
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Aug 18, 2024 02:10
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Elviscat posted:They finally dug up some real dirt on Walz. he was teaching during tiananmen. kind of a dangerous time for it.
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Aug 18, 2024 02:59
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I'm extremely skeptical of the efficacy of the amount of spam they're doing. there's efficacy in reaching voters and there's efficacy in some consultancy saying they reached/can reach X voters, and who's really gonna bother vetting the quality of the rolodex for the latter?
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Aug 18, 2024 07:52
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:there's efficacy in reaching voters and there's efficacy in some consultancy saying they reached/can reach X voters, and who's really gonna bother vetting the quality of the rolodex for the latter? And a lot of these organizations aren't Democrats/Republicans, but random PACs only loosely tied to the parties that are basically scams. PACs where 80% of their funding goes to fundraising or consultant fees and are more or less out to just get their leaders paid. Hard to know which side has the scammier PACs, but there are a lot of them!
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Aug 18, 2024 15:25
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Elviscat posted:They finally dug up some real dirt on Walz. lmao, I know both hard left and hard right people that have been to China, none for political or military reasons. Who gives a gently caress?
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Aug 18, 2024 16:38
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facialimpediment posted:And a lot of these organizations aren't Democrats/Republicans, but random PACs only loosely tied to the parties that are basically scams. PACs where 80% of their funding goes to fundraising or consultant fees and are more or less out to just get their leaders paid. Hard to know which side has the scammier PACs, but there are a lot of them! Isn't this the RNC at this point?
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Aug 18, 2024 18:32
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facialimpediment posted:WaPo et al has said that the content wasn't "newsworthy" and the hacker can simply publish the poo poo elsewhere if they want to. Ordinarily, that's mealy-mouthed bullshit in comparison to BUTTERMAILS, but it's somewhat consistent with how they treated the Hunter Biden Laptop. News organizations wouldn't touch that poo poo and social media sites blocked access too. So I kinda get their standpoint - it's more consistent with 2020 than 2016. A senior Politico writer disagrees with the explanations quote:It is possible that each of these outlets will eventually publish the hacked material, which reportedly includes a 271-page file, assembled as Trump was considering a running mate, assessing both the strengths and “POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES” of Ohio Sen. JD Vance. It may be that the Times, the Post, and Politico are all working to ensure that no erroneous material was deliberately inserted. But that is not the explanation they have offered so far for why they are holding off.
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Aug 18, 2024 20:08
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And that's why reporters aren't editors let alone publishers. You don't get to be the boss if you don't take orders from boss makers
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Aug 18, 2024 21:00
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This election does continue to be very stupid and now I have "JD Vance jizz cup" in my browser history https://x.com/Esqueer_/status/1825147908561289276 https://x.com/MrJoKeR604/status/1825028725219483871
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Aug 18, 2024 21:09
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I'm not going to ask, but imagine I have.
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Aug 18, 2024 21:24
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This really is the craziest timeline
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Aug 18, 2024 21:55
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They’re calling it “Dark Brandon’s secret sauce”.
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Aug 18, 2024 21:57
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For those wondering, the MAGA logic is that Harris has stepchildren and Walz and his wife needed IVF to conceive, so Trump and Vance are therefore ultra-manly and virile because they had direct biological kids of their own without medical assistance.
Cythereal fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Aug 18, 2024 |
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Aug 18, 2024 22:17
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Cythereal posted:For those wondering, the MAGA logic is that Harris has stepchildren and Walz and his wife needed IVF to conceive, so Trump and Vance are therefore ultra-manly and virile because they had kids of their own without medical assistance.  Y'know what? gently caress it. I'm going to the bar for a while.
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Aug 18, 2024 22:28
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That man had control of nuclear weapons. I do not envy future people when the children ask why
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Aug 18, 2024 22:41
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Cythereal posted:For those wondering, the MAGA logic is that Harris has stepchildren and Walz and his wife needed IVF to conceive, so Trump and Vance are therefore ultra-manly and virile because they had direct biological kids of their own without medical assistance. This might be a concern if the line of presidency was hereditary and not elected. loving weirdos.
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