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CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

Blue Jackoffs are Rags west

"I'm THRILLED to be the reason for the fall of Crooked Joe, but I'm also ANGRY he's been replaced in the FIRST coup in American history and wish he wouldnt have fallen. Many scholars have said that President Donald J. TRUMP should face Sleepy Joe and not Commala in November. Sad!"

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maffew buildings
Apr 29, 2009

too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned
This two party back and forth nonsense is why I've been voting for Dan Gurney for years

davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.

CBJSprague24 posted:

"I'm THRILLED to be the reason for the fall of Crooked Joe, but I'm also ANGRY he's been replaced in the FIRST coup in American history and wish he wouldnt have fallen. Many scholars have said that President Donald J. TRUMP should face Sleepy Joe and not Commala in November. Sad!"

That's actually a more coherent thought then what he posted.

Basticle
Sep 12, 2011


maffew buildings posted:

This two party back and forth nonsense is why I've been voting for Dan Gurney for years

:hmmyes:

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Proud Christian Mom posted:

glad we're really highlighting the youth of the party with a bunch of speakers who are either unelectable in some form or fashion or have no desire to run for office. really addressing the concerns of how we ended up having to change candidates a month ago.

Do you have someone in mind that you wanted to see speak who wasn't there?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007

Grip it and rip it posted:

Do you have someone in mind that you wanted to see speak who wasn't there?

Doctor Who

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008


The goddamn gently caress does George Clooney have to do with anything?

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

Elviscat posted:

The goddamn gently caress does George Clooney have to do with anything?

Clooney's unendorsement of Biden was a big deal, since he held a fundraiser just before the debate. Was one of the telltale signs Biden was toast because the fundraising dried up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/opinion/joe-biden-democratic-nominee.html

Basically, Donnie's too online and repeating last season's lore too hard. There are already new characters and he's still yammering about last season's minor characters that only showed up for a minute.

You basically need a decoder ring and a recap of the Fox News Cinematic Universe to know what the gently caress he's talking about half the time anymore.

facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Aug 21, 2024

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016
When did Clooney become such a political powerhouse? Does he just donate a shitton or is it the power of handsome?

So, so handsome…

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

boop the snoot posted:

When did Clooney become such a political powerhouse? Does he just donate a shitton or is it the power of handsome?

So, so handsome…

He's more the humanitarian type, but he hosted a Biden virtual fundraiser in 2020, then this one in 2024. Been endorsing Democrats since 2008.

Clooney's word became big because he had known Biden since 2008, set up a giant fundraiser for him a month ago, then out came Grandpa Joe. Pretty quickly judged that Biden was cooked and someone, anyone needed to come in.

And speaking of cooked:

https://x.com/GaryGrumbach/status/1826317808034107875?t=n-thM5kYNWGbVD7aWdn7dQ&s=19

Republicans' ratfucking attempts will be pared down to the Greens and whatever the hell Cornell West is doing.

facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Aug 21, 2024

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

I hope Trump fires Vance, and then replaces him with Brain Worms McGee.

Notahippie
Feb 4, 2003

Kids, it's not cool to have Shane MacGowan teeth

bulletsponge13 posted:

I hope Trump fires Vance, and then replaces him with Brain Worms McGee.

I would die of schadenfreude.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

boop the snoot posted:

When did Clooney become such a political powerhouse? Does he just donate a shitton or is it the power of handsome?

So, so handsome…

His editorial did have an impact, he (respectfully) noted he’d known Biden for sometime & how backstage he was noticeably less alert & capable in previous years. Other voices including Congress members would say the same in the subsequent days & Biden was never able to shake that off. Probably because he really is in on a downward trend.

Super glad he stepped aside, wonder how many more stories are gonna pop up about his staff needing to stage manage his appearances & schedule, like how late Reagan had a lot of problems while still in office.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

Hyrax Attack! posted:

His editorial did have an impact, he (respectfully) noted he’d known Biden for sometime & how backstage he was noticeably less alert & capable in previous years. Other voices including Congress members would say the same in the subsequent days & Biden was never able to shake that off. Probably because he really is in on a downward trend.

Super glad he stepped aside, wonder how many more stories are gonna pop up about his staff needing to stage manage his appearances & schedule, like how late Reagan had a lot of problems while still in office.

I should stop being angered by the double standard coming from Republicans about their candidate but here we are. Captain Goodbrains is out there dribbling word diarrhea out of his mouth-anus every day and welp, it's only a problem when it's the other side.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
My dad is 79 and a facility manager at a university, making 140k doing ~20 hours of work a week, ge also has a contracting business he runs full time where people bring work to him. Since he doesn't need to work he just upcharges everything by 20+% and just passes all the real work to his subs. During this he also made time to help me remodel my house as well as help my old roommate build an ADU. Its been awhile since I worked so closely with him and I was shocked by all the small ways he is showing his age, constant slip ups like Biden.

He has threatened to retire from the university and doesn't even try to get work but he is absolutely indispensable to everyone due to his expertise and connections. Biden looks exactly the same to me so I can't really fault him. My dad says if he actually retires, what would he do? He would probably die soon after. He loves his work and the human interactions while still having the freedom to do whatever he wants.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

facialimpediment posted:

He's more the humanitarian type, but he hosted a Biden virtual fundraiser in 2020, then this one in 2024. Been endorsing Democrats since 2008.

Clooney's word became big because he had known Biden since 2008, set up a giant fundraiser for him a month ago, then out came Grandpa Joe. Pretty quickly judged that Biden was cooked and someone, anyone needed to come in.

And speaking of cooked:

https://x.com/GaryGrumbach/status/1826317808034107875?t=n-thM5kYNWGbVD7aWdn7dQ&s=19

Republicans' ratfucking attempts will be pared down to the Greens and whatever the hell Cornell West is doing.

West is at the DNC and may have snapped out of it

People there are glad to see him either way

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

word is he's been getting a lot of his own warnings about how nihilism is the mind killer thrown back at him especially now that Biden's off the ticket

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003

boop the snoot posted:

When did Clooney become such a political powerhouse? Does he just donate a shitton or is it the power of handsome?

So, so handsome…

clooney is one of the biggest dem bundlers in hollywood

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Trump either doesn't know that or doesn't know why or both that the DNC played Kendrick Lamar- Not Like Us last night or he would have melted down about it by now.

Someone tell him.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

also RIP Drake

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

shame on an IGA posted:

West is at the DNC and may have snapped out of it

People there are glad to see him either way

shame on an IGA posted:

word is he's been getting a lot of his own warnings about how nihilism is the mind killer thrown back at him especially now that Biden's off the ticket

I've only seen that he's in Chicago and attending various Gaza protests and such. Has that changed? He's still being blatantly used by Republican-connected lawyers in ratfucking, though they hosed up both the Michigan and Arizona attempts to get him on the ballot.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

facialimpediment posted:

I've only seen that he's in Chicago and attending various Gaza protests and such. Has that changed? He's still being blatantly used by Republican-connected lawyers in ratfucking, though they hosed up both the Michigan and Arizona attempts to get him on the ballot.

he was definitely at the convention, my IRL delegate friend got a selfie

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch
This needs to generally be the democratic attitude against the supreme court:

https://x.com/therecount/status/1826406552997097704?t=nqlSxxarXs1ixtB5xI727Q&s=19

With abortion now being on the Montana ballot, if Tester wins and Democrats get a barely-trifecta (barely doubtful) they need to go to loving war on the court systems.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
Walzs son is so happy proud an excited for his dad the contrast is just so extreme i feel gross seeing Trump and his family.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

lightpole posted:

Walzs son is so happy proud an excited for his dad the contrast is just so extreme i feel gross seeing Trump and his family.

Here's the clip:

https://x.com/MSNBC/status/1826463858698879420?t=6gEspPWBuXVtniFD7ddjWw&s=19

Really all you need to know about the guy. Extra bonus clip, my favorite line:

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1826464102690038167?t=hWbI5cb_Vz5TsBVAKA2OyA&s=19

Very clear why Kamala picked him. Probably wasn't even a close internal race.

Honorable mention:

https://x.com/NikkiMcR/status/1826459089901076866?t=RMZ-v1sr5zO2RvNQmJ6qiA&s=19

facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Aug 22, 2024

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
His son lost it during that previous speaker. Everything I see about him I'm almost jealous he's not my dad.

maffew buildings
Apr 29, 2009

too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned
lmao countdown to the right wing psychos attacking Walz for loving his family and not being a manly man

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

facialimpediment posted:

Really all you need to know about the guy. Extra bonus clip, my favorite line:

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1826464102690038167?t=hWbI5cb_Vz5TsBVAKA2OyA&s=19


gently caress yeah, that's a good line right there. Anyone who thinks preventing children from going hungry is a bad thing can go right to hell.

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

facialimpediment posted:

And speaking of cooked:

https://x.com/GaryGrumbach/status/1826317808034107875?t=n-thM5kYNWGbVD7aWdn7dQ&s=19

Republicans' ratfucking attempts will be pared down to the Greens and whatever the hell Cornell West is doing.

Afaik, this is a bad thing. Every poll that does 2-way and 3-way race shows that RFK steals much more from Trump than Harris (or previously Biden)

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

disrespecting dead goons IRL

Xakura posted:

Afaik, this is a bad thing. Every poll that does 2-way and 3-way race shows that RFK steals much more from Trump than Harris (or previously Biden)

Maybe we'll get lucky and this will result in Trump starting the Trump Party and leaving RFK as the only half-assed nominee available for the GOP.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

Xakura posted:

Afaik, this is a bad thing. Every poll that does 2-way and 3-way race shows that RFK steals much more from Trump than Harris (or previously Biden)

It's a nothingburger based on current polling data:

https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1826372865551454350?t=vtffDTQTXm6TDnO-lXUVCA&s=19

Kamala will probably add it to the weird/kooky/wrong/dangerous thing and start mentioning he accepted an endorsement from a bear killing, brain wormed, antivax psycho. Kennedy was getting votes because Biden sucked and his last name was Kennedy.

Fallom
Sep 6, 2008

Xakura posted:

Afaik, this is a bad thing. Every poll that does 2-way and 3-way race shows that RFK steals much more from Trump than Harris (or previously Biden)

It really doesn’t matter. He was never going to make it to the election.

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

I'm not making an account to read this

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

Xakura posted:

I'm not making an account to read this

Always thought the poo poo displays automatically. So:

quote:

About Kennedy dropping out: Our polling average model looks at the difference in polls that do and do not include him as an option. In this adjustment RFK takes 1.3 points from Harris and 1.5 from Trump. RFK dropout net effect is small — reduces Harris’s margin from +3.3 to +3.1. So, basically, people are probably making too big a deal out of this

This is the new 538 guy talking after Nate Silver got too high from his own farts and died.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016
Why didn’t 2016 make polls a moot topic of discussion?

I guess the people that are running campaigns can use them for information, but what value do we get out of them that wasn’t completely undermined by 2016?

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

2016 polls weren’t wrong, though. Trump victory was absolutely within the margin of error. They’ve gotten worse since then, though.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

President
Matt Patricia Fan Club
Ann Arbor branch

Mr. Nice! posted:

2016 polls weren’t wrong, though. Trump victory was absolutely within the margin of error. They’ve gotten worse since then, though.

Agreed! The takeaway from 2016 was basically "a normal margin-of-error polling miss will lead to Trump winning". Takeaway from 2020 was basically "ok we didn't weight enough for education, we had Biden winning by more, though result was still margin of error".

This year, Biden was getting numbers outside typical margins of error, that then snapped back to where everyone though they should be: a toss-up, margin-of-error race. It's been one of the rare times when polling clearly shifted and you didn't even need to squint.

The RFK poo poo is so deep into the margin of error that it's meaningless, it simply can't be measured by polling, however lovely the polling is. That's more data than we'll get out of news on Friday, which will likely present the whole thing as Donnie's One Weird Trick To Change The Narrative. So polling still has a place, as lovely as it's become.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Mr. Nice! posted:

2016 polls weren’t wrong, though. Trump victory was absolutely within the margin of error. They’ve gotten worse since then, though.

What does this do for me as a voter though? I never said they were wrong, I just don’t know what valuable information I can get from them.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Nap Ghost

boop the snoot posted:

What does this do for me as a voter though? I never said they were wrong, I just don’t know what valuable information I can get from them.

Prioritize your efforts. Arguably, a voter who simply stays home in their own state that will go 56/43 but does some get out the vote work for a swing state is doing more at the federal level than a voter in such a state who votes, but does nothing else.

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Fallom
Sep 6, 2008

Modern polling seems like a farce but on the other hand it got Biden to quit

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