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Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Duzzy Funlop posted:

Hang on, going by the update on FOX' own website:



Biden is at 238 electoral votes, and has a high probability of winning Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, which total 32 electoral votes...so that would be 270...?

Yeah, he has Arizona so he doesn't need MI, WI AND PA, like Trump did to beat Hilary. Michigan and Wisconsin (plus I think a Nebraska electoral college vote he'll get for winning one of it's congressional districts) are enough to get him over the finish line.

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Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

Against All Tyrants

Ultra Carp

Duzzy Funlop posted:

Where's FOX getting that 95% chance to win for Biden in MI from? I'm confused

Most of the outstanding votes are early/absentee ballots from Detroit and the Detroit suburbs, which are going to be overwhelmingly Democratic.

e: so really my vote saved the country, you're welcome nation

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


https://mobile.twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

Also since it came up in thread. If I wanted to explore japanese whiskey and had ~$50 to drop what should I check out.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice
*frantically pouring 2-stroke into the Schadenfreude Machine*

If anyone needs me, I'll be going through the smug facebook tags from broke brained idiots over the past 12-16 hours and figuring out who gets a visual of my dick and balls, from the back, once the Lying Liberal Media start to call it for Biden, inshallah.

It's not going to make anything better for y'all, but holy poo poo not having President Trump is going to shove so many cooked right wing shitheads back under the rug over here in ANZAC land.

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD
Turns out the Mass Incarceration ticket did not improve minority turnout

-Anders
Feb 1, 2007

Denmark. Wait, what?

Soylent Pudding posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

Also since it came up in thread. If I wanted to explore japanese whiskey and had ~$50 to drop what should I check out.

I don't know the price in the US, but I liked the Yamazaki.

Duzzy Funlop
Jan 13, 2010

Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

I'm still not entirely convinced this is done and dusted, but it just occurred to me...if this trend continues...Trump is never going to concede

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice
Trump was never going to concede, even with a blue wave. The dems will have to have a plan for that, because he's pathologically incapable of accepting a loss.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

Thank you, Johnny Hockey.
270 To Win now has an interactive map where you can play with the remaining clinching scenarios: https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/11/04/presidential-election-undecided-remaining-paths-270-electoral-votes_1123.html

(edit- Assuming Biden wins Arizona and Nevada and Trump wins Alaska, Biden wins the whole thing with any two remaining states and/or NC/WI/ME-2.)

Don Dongington posted:

*frantically pouring 2-stroke into the Schadenfreude Machine*

If anyone needs me, I'll be going through the smug facebook tags from broke brained idiots over the past 12-16 hours and figuring out who gets a visual of my dick and balls, from the back, once the Lying Liberal Media start to call it for Biden, inshallah.

It's not going to make anything better for y'all, but holy poo poo not having President Trump is going to shove so many cooked right wing shitheads back under the rug over here in ANZAC land.

I may be firing off some shitposts on Facebook like nobody's ever seen if this plays out as we all hope it does.

Don Dongington posted:

Trump was never going to concede, even with a blue wave. The dems will have to have a plan for that, because he's pathologically incapable of accepting a loss.

Ben Goddamn Shapiro Tweeted last night that Trump declaring victory when he did was a bad loving idea.

CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Nov 4, 2020

Woofer
Mar 2, 2020

This is dumb as gently caress.

If you want to know what “this” is that I’m talking about, think of something.

That.

Woofer
Mar 2, 2020

Yesterday I was calm and relaxed but the anxiety set in today!

SquirrelyPSU
May 27, 2003


Monty, get a hold of your man.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice

CBJSprague24 posted:


I may be firing off some shitposts on Facebook like nobody's ever seen if this plays out as we all hope it does.


After the last 4 years, I think we're due a couple hours of introducing smug Trumpers to The Whole Gang.

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

Not entirely sure what there is to be smug about even if Biden wins. A squeaker in this election says, "Hey we're FINE with the fash, just stop being so loud about it." The democrats will learn nothing because they obtained the presidency and we'll end up we'll end up with a string of 1 term Bluedog-Dem/Repub/Bluedog-Dem presidents and no shifting in congress until the fash get real froggy or Global warming does the needful.

SquirrelyPSU
May 27, 2003


Defenestrategy posted:

Not entirely sure what there is to be smug about even if Biden wins. A squeaker in this election says, "Hey we're FINE with the fash, just stop being so loud about it." The democrats will learn nothing because they obtained the presidency and we'll end up we'll end up with a string of 1 term Bluedog-Dem/Repub/Bluedog-Dem presidents and no shifting in congress until the fash get real froggy or Global warming does the needful.

I've got thoughts that I'm not muttering out loud until the result is done and survives a court challenge.

As Nero Danced
Sep 3, 2009

Alright, let's do this
While it look like Biden can get to 270, I gotta admit I'm real worried about a faithless elector scenario. If that happens it'll be a loving mess.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
What this tells me is that Obama won handily not because of a liberalizing american public, but because McCain and Romney weren't fascist enough to drive heavy conservative turnout.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Democrats will say “The Electoral College has spoken. We congratulate President Trump on his reëlection.”

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

Stultus Maximus posted:

What this tells me is that Obama won handily not because of a liberalizing american public, but because McCain and Romney weren't fascist enough to drive heavy conservative turnout.

Obama and Joe is a stronger ticket just on charisma value than joe kamala. Also stronger because people could believe obama might actually fight for change in society. Nobody is under that illusion for Joe.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Defenestrategy posted:

Obama and Joe is a stronger ticket just on charisma value than joe kamala. Also stronger because people could believe obama might actually fight for change in society. Nobody is under that illusion for Joe.

While I do accept that, we're seeing unprecedented rural turnout for Trump right now. They didn't get motivated by mainstream conservative like McCain or Romney, but by Trump and his belligerent ignorant fascism.

As Nero Danced
Sep 3, 2009

Alright, let's do this

Defenestrategy posted:

Obama and Joe is a stronger ticket just on charisma value than joe kamala. Also stronger because people could believe obama might actually fight for change in society. Nobody is under that illusion for Joe.

Honestly I've been wondering lately how much of Obama's turn out in the 08 primary was just anti-Hillary sentiment. Sure there was his messaging which was optimistic and inclusive and for some the novelty of being able to vote for a black man for president but I think a good chunk of it was really just people hating Hillary Clinton.

Don Dongington
Sep 27, 2005

#ideasboom
College Slice
One thing the Arizona Biden turnout has taught us is that Americans really will change their vote because someone teased them on the internet (or their respected former senator).

SquirrelyPSU
May 27, 2003


As Nero Danced posted:

Honestly I've been wondering lately how much of Obama's turn out in the 08 primary was just anti-Hillary sentiment. Sure there was his messaging which was optimistic and inclusive and for some the novelty of being able to vote for a black man for president but I think a good chunk of it was really just people hating Hillary Clinton.

This is a stupid post.

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”
I'll take in victory we can get but holy poo poo, uneducated rednecks are loving trash. It's too bad the antifas aren't actually running around terrorizing their podunk towns the way we have these hick caravans clogging up our highways.

Stultus Maximus posted:

While I do accept that, we're seeing unprecedented rural turnout for Trump right now. They didn't get motivated by mainstream conservative like McCain or Romney, but by Trump and his belligerent ignorant fascism.

These people are worthless, Democrats should definitely start coming up with their own voter suppression ideas to keep the hicks from loving this country up more than they already have.

ZombieApostate
Mar 13, 2011
Sorry, I didn't read your post.

I'm too busy replying to what I wish you said

:allears:
If they quit insisting on running Republican-lites, they wouldn't have to. They could win if they actually ran as something resembling progressive hard enough to pick any of a slate of fixes to the system that actually made elections more fair and democratic which would secure control for the rest of all our lifetimes, but they're too stupid to do that.

Tyro
Nov 10, 2009

Soylent Pudding posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

Also since it came up in thread. If I wanted to explore japanese whiskey and had ~$50 to drop what should I check out.

Like Anders said, Yamazaki is pretty good, but I think it's more like a $100 bottle most places.

Suntory's Toki is under $40 near me and not bad, I like using it in cocktails.

Thwomp
Apr 10, 2003

BA-DUHHH

Grimey Drawer

Defenestrategy posted:

Obama and Joe is a stronger ticket just on charisma value than joe kamala. Also stronger because people could believe obama might actually fight for change in society. Nobody is under that illusion for Joe.

There is a real charisma thing going on that Joe lacks.


As a little kicker to this, AOC will turn 35 just before the 2024 elections.

PookBear
Nov 1, 2008

trump is going to campaign for another four year straight and win in 2024

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA
2020: Biden wins and somehow managed to get Trump to go. GOP wins the Senate.
2021: The Covid recession finally hits. Voters blame Biden.
2022: The GOP takes the House. Biden is stymied at every turn. Any new Supreme Court openings locked shut by the Senate.
2024: Trump is uncontested in the GOP primary. He wins the presidential election with a blowout legislative victory. Supreme Court shifts 7-2. Then 8-1.

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

ZombieApostate posted:

If they quit insisting on running Republican-lites, they wouldn't have to. They could win if they actually ran as something resembling progressive hard enough to pick any of a slate of fixes to the system that actually made elections more fair and democratic which would secure control for the rest of all our lifetimes, but they're too stupid to do that.

I can't see how people that turn out for a fascist in droves would one day decide to start voting for a progressive.

bird cooch
Jan 19, 2007
https://mobile.twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324005540004057090

Worth clicking through to the thread. 27% of mail in ballots weren't delivered to be counted in South Florida.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Cugel the Clever posted:

2020: Biden wins and somehow managed to get Trump to go. GOP wins the Senate.
2021: The Covid recession finally hits. Voters blame Biden.
2022: The GOP takes the House. Biden is stymied at every turn. Any new Supreme Court openings locked shut by the Senate.
2024: Trump is uncontested in the GOP primary. He wins the presidential election with a blowout legislative victory. Supreme Court shifts 7-2. Then 8-1.

This kind of thing is legitimately unhealthy to do to yourself and you should stop.

Thwomp
Apr 10, 2003

BA-DUHHH

Grimey Drawer

bird cooch posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324005540004057090

Worth clicking through to the thread. 27% of mail in ballots weren't delivered to be counted in South Florida.

This is actually less of a deal than it looks.

Thread from someone more on top of this beat:

https://twitter.com/a_w_gordon/status/1324013049762795524?s=21

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

This kind of thing is legitimately unhealthy to do to yourself and you should stop.

Look man Harpoon scenario flavor text isn’t going to write itself.

bird cooch
Jan 19, 2007

Thwomp posted:

This is actually less of a deal than it looks.

Yeah? How?

https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1324015235552956423?s=20

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

This kind of thing is legitimately unhealthy to do to yourself and you should stop.
Nah, just idle forecasting.

While I want to think that a different Dem candidate would have done better, I still think this election is more indicative of how pervasive the rot in the American electorate is. They're on a completely different plane of reality such that we're now stuck hoping that conservative news media and political leaders finally refuse to indulge Trump's incipient authoritarianism. poo poo's hosed.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

ZombieApostate posted:

If they quit insisting on running Republican-lites, they wouldn't have to. They could win if they actually ran as something resembling progressive hard enough to pick any of a slate of fixes to the system that actually made elections more fair and democratic which would secure control for the rest of all our lifetimes, but they're too stupid to do that.

It’s not that they’re stupid.

It’s that they’d rather have a fascist than a social democrat.

BUG JUG
Feb 17, 2005



North Dakota elected a person who died of COVID, from the party that decries COVID as a hoax.

This world is just too stupid for me.

Thwomp
Apr 10, 2003

BA-DUHHH

Grimey Drawer



We'll know more later today but TL;DR is that this number is reflective of scanning and that to make the deadlines, the USPS by-passed their normal scanning procedures to get the ballots in under the deadline. The result are these scanning numbers that look like stuff wasn't delivered but was.

The VICE article has the details on the process the USPS undertook.


All that said, looks like the Judge is going to allow the USPS to sweep facilities that pop up like this for ballots (with independent observers present).

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bird cooch
Jan 19, 2007

Thwomp posted:

We'll know more later today but TL;DR is that this number is reflective of scanning and that to make the deadlines, the USPS by-passed their normal scanning procedures to get the ballots in under the deadline. The result are these scanning numbers that look like stuff wasn't delivered but was.

The VICE article has the details on the process the USPS undertook.


All that said, looks like the Judge is going to order the USPS to sweep facilities that pop up like this for ballots.

He gave that order yesterday afternoon and they just said 'nah'

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