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Entitlement is the problem I think.
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Oct 21, 2024 18:41
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The entire GOP campaign this year is informed by their media bubble. Every single ad hits dumb culture war poo poo that anyone who cares about is already going to vote republican. I'm actually mildly hopeful for a definitive blue win with a better-than-predicted showing because barely engaged voters aren't going to get off their rear end and vote for MEN PLAYING WOMEN'S SPORTS KILLING LIVING BABIES bullshit, but barely engaged voters may very well get off their rear end for "these weirdos want to ban abortion and take away your overtime, and also, they're a bunch of maniacs."
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Oct 21, 2024 18:55
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One of my good friends and long-time work colleagues started pushing the FEMA conspiracy stuff on work chat the other day and I tore into him. He'd always called himself a libertarian and that was easy enough to ignore but I guess at some point he started falling down this loving rabbit hole and it's profoundly sad.
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Oct 21, 2024 18:56
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Vortex Street fucked around with this message at 06:17 on Nov 6, 2024 |
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Oct 21, 2024 19:01
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Tiny Timbs posted:One of my good friends and long-time work colleagues started pushing the FEMA conspiracy stuff on work chat the other day and I tore into him. He'd always called himself a libertarian and that was easy enough to ignore but I guess at some point he started falling down this loving rabbit hole and it's profoundly sad. To some extent the internet is specifically engineered to produce this outcome if you are not actively and directly opposing that outcome. If they're reading social media in this day and age they're pumping pure hatred right in to their mind every minute they read it. Nobody is immune to propaganda. The choice that can be made is to get that propaganda from places that don't exist purely to tickle your think meats with the angry-making chemicals.
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Oct 21, 2024 19:04
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bird food bathtub posted:To some extent the internet is specifically engineered to produce this outcome if you are not actively and directly opposing that outcome. If they're reading social media in this day and age they're pumping pure hatred right in to their mind every minute they read it. Yeah, there are some limited defenses if you tailor your feeds correctly, but it can't be understated just how much Normie Twitter is designed as Nazi Accelerationism For Clout. Bunch of chud-adjacent Nazis with blue checks chasing anger engagement to get a direct payment through Elon. stealie72 posted:The entire GOP campaign this year is informed by their media bubble. Every single ad hits dumb culture war poo poo that anyone who cares about is already going to vote republican. Two potentially telltale signs for a Democratic overperformance: 1) I'm not getting any Kamala ads countering the transgender bullshit. They clearly could, as shown by her preplanned answer of "donnie did it too, he's full of poo poo" on Fox News, or her ads on immigration, but they don't. It's constant economy and Donnie-bad focuses. Even the Democratic PACs aren't running counter-trans ads, only some Senate Candidates are touching the topic. Dave Weigel (Semafor) thinks it's because Kamala's numbers have been surging on the economy, so Donnie had to go with his rich friends' trans bugaboos. 2) Even the pollsters aren't understanding their results and are telling people polls can't help. Some quotes from the last few weeks from NYT's Nate Cohn: quote:(about NYT/Siena poll) Ms. Harris leads by four points in Pennsylvania, just as she did immediately after the final debate. Mr. Trump leads by six points in Arizona, about the same as the five-point lead he held three weeks ago. That’s not what I expected. The average of other polls continues to show a tighter race in both states, and — unlike in Florida — there isn’t an obvious explanation for why the Times/Inquirer/Siena poll is producing a somewhat different result in these two states. Donnie thinks it's a base election, so he's doing nothing but hammering his usual poo poo to try and turn out infrequent voters. Arguably, that's all he is capable of doing any more with a brain of soup. Kamala thinks it's a persuasion election - she's going after disaffected republicans, Dobbs voters, and going after just enough lefties to not alienate the normies. But there's a third option: it's a turnout election. It really may all come down to turnout! And I've yet to see that Donnie/Musk/Etc have any semblance of a competent GOTV effort while Kamala made a big one the traditional way. Also, both campaigns think it's in their best interest to promote a "remember 2016, Donnie's gonna win!" narrative. facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Oct 21, 2024 |
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Oct 21, 2024 19:24
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btw olivia nuzzi got canned for proverbially loving rfk jr https://x.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1848440846766551310
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Oct 21, 2024 19:42
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facialimpediment posted:btw olivia nuzzi got canned for proverbially loving rfk jr facialimpediment posted:it's a turnout election. It really may all come down to turnout!
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Oct 21, 2024 20:20
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facialimpediment posted:Yeah, there are some limited defenses if you tailor your feeds correctly, but it can't be understated just how much Normie Twitter is designed as Nazi Accelerationism For Clout. Bunch of chud-adjacent Nazis with blue checks chasing anger engagement to get a direct payment through Elon. Jake Tapper was just going through polls using Nate Silver (which, if I understand correctly, is a very  way to go) and said Trump is up in AZ, NC, and GA, Harris in WI, NV, and MI, and they're tied in PA, which means "essentially a Trump win".The gently caress it is. If that pans out, it's down to PA and whoever wins it wins the whole thing. That's why I'm growing skeptical of reporting. It's all trying to squeeze the last little bit of hype out of everything, even if the sources are questionable.
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Oct 21, 2024 20:32
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CBJSprague24 posted:Jake Tapper was just going through polls using Nate Silver (which, if I understand correctly, is a very Very much so, he's a corrupted source. He runs Polymarket, funded by Peter Thiel, so he's basically giving gambling advice while also likely doing the gambling and loving with markets as he bets on them. Very clearly a gambling addict as well, it's not great! Edit: basically we're in a "polls can't help predict this" environment and people on TV are saying "well the polls say..."
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Oct 21, 2024 20:45
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facialimpediment posted:Very much so, he's a corrupted source. He runs Polymarket, funded by Peter Thiel, so he's basically giving gambling advice while also likely doing the gambling and loving with markets as he bets on them. Very clearly a gambling addict as well, it's not great! I had somebody tell me the idea that this is a problem for Nate Silver's analysis was laughable and now I half suspect he has an account here
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Oct 21, 2024 20:48
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I have zero actual evidence, but you won't convince me that the pollsters aren't all skewing the polls in Trump's favor after their misses the past 2 elections. It could be as tight as it seems but I just don't believe it. I will absolutely not be surprised when Trump wins this time though. We've done it once, we'll do it again.
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Oct 21, 2024 21:15
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Silver’s current analysis is probably heavily tainted due to his association with PolyMarket. However the core fundamentals of linked states is probably still accurate. As I understand it there are states with a high propensity to go together the classic examples are the New England (sans New Hampshire sometimes) and the South (sans Georgia and / or North Carolina sometimes). In effect if you do well in one you have a reasonably good chance of doing well in all of them. WI / MI / PA are one such grouping - broadly the old school rust belt states. If someone is doing well in one state they tend to do well in all states. The states tend to be highly linked to each other and more so then say to IL or NY. This idea is from Silver’s 538 days and I’m not sure if it was his idea or not but it seems true in my limited experience with the concept in 2016 and 2020. And that’s the rub, the Trump distortion field skews polls almost to a point of being unusable as predictors. I’m not sure I trust polling groups have properly accounted for the field and made the proper adjustments. That said I think the election is won or lost in PA and whomever wins there takes the whole thing. The only real counter to PA is GA and I just don’t see Harris winning there again. But I’m hopeful.
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Oct 21, 2024 21:18
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fknlo posted:I have zero actual evidence, but you won't convince me that the pollsters aren't all skewing the polls in Trump's favor after their misses the past 2 elections. It could be as tight as it seems but I just don't believe it. I will absolutely not be surprised when Trump wins this time though. We've done it once, we'll do it again. Generally I think public polling is ruined as a concept and all the aggregators are being heavily manipulated by partisan polling, oversampling, and whatnot and that's without even getting into the whole industry being highly motivated to push horse race narratives These polling metamodels that people like Nate Silver came up with for 538 aren't getting around GIGO
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Oct 21, 2024 21:21
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Nystral posted:Silver’s current analysis is probably heavily tainted due to his association with PolyMarket. However the core fundamentals of linked states is probably still accurate. As I understand it there are states with a high propensity to go together the classic examples are the New England (sans New Hampshire sometimes) and the South (sans Georgia and / or North Carolina sometimes). In effect if you do well in one you have a reasonably good chance of doing well in all of them. GA doesn't have the electoral votes to make up for PA. If she wins GA and NC or NV together, yes, but I'd argue that if she's in a position to win GA or NC, then she's also likely going to carry the rust belt.
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Oct 21, 2024 21:22
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fknlo posted:I have zero actual evidence, but you won't convince me that the pollsters aren't all skewing the polls in Trump's favor after their misses the past 2 elections. It could be as tight as it seems but I just don't believe it. I will absolutely not be surprised when Trump wins this time though. We've done it once, we'll do it again. Here's your evidence. It's not "skewing" in a derogatory sense, pollsters simply don't know what their sample proportions should be to catch this year's likely low-propensity voters turning out. An example was one Pennsylvania poll where their sample caught 125 young voters in the Philadelphia region, then chucked all but ~20 out of the sample in their Likely Voter screen, just because they were young. People don't pick up phones, have to opt-in to internet surveys (and not just answer the checkbox version of "lmao" to end them), and pollsters are stuck trying to figure out what's what. Like a pollster called me the other day (I've already voted) and I couldn't talk because I was checking out at Home Depot. I told him to call back in a half hour and he glumly informed me that he probably couldn't do that. That sample's kinda hosed unless they find another one in my demographics and weight appropriately!
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Oct 21, 2024 21:28
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Back of envelope math dividing $44 billion by the population of Pennsylvania, do we have any election laws left that would prevent musk from promising to pay every person there $3,400 if he likes the election result?
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Oct 21, 2024 21:29
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Back of envelope math dividing $44 billion by the population of Pennsylvania, do we have any election laws left that would prevent musk from promising to pay every person there $3,400 if he likes the election result? Supreme Court says it's cool if it's a tip after the fact, not a payment before. And thanks to trumbo, no tax on tips!
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Oct 21, 2024 21:34
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Gee if only we had a body that chooses a president based on abilities and not little tricks of popularity and demagoguery.
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Oct 21, 2024 22:24
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Back of envelope math dividing $44 billion by the population of Pennsylvania, do we have any election laws left that would prevent musk from promising to pay every person there $3,400 if he likes the election result? Serious answer is that it's not cute enough to get around the vote buying laws, which DOJ could immediately enforce. The sweepstakes thing is probably cute enough to dodge Garland getting off his rear end, but supposedly it's really close. And now it's not a giveaway, but still hosed: quote:In a social media post late Sunday night, the Musk-backed group reframed the giveaway as a job opportunity, saying winners “will be selected to earn $1M as a spokesperson for America PAC.” The two winners picked over the weekend have appeared in promotional videos on the super PAC’s account on X, formerly Twitter. Your version still remains cute - but it's really paying people directly to vote, or not vote, which is clearly illegal. Considering Elon's likely Just Saying poo poo then the lawyers take over, who knows. Sure won't be the FEC intervening though! Edit: yeah Elon's already scared WaPo posted:Musk responded to the criticism online, saying voters who want to be eligible for the $1 million prizes do not need to register as Republicans or vote in the Nov. 5 election. facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Oct 21, 2024 |
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Oct 21, 2024 22:29
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it wouldn't be that bad if we had a media environment capable of even beginning to educate the electorate on the issues instead of recognizing and exploiting that a dumb-as-rocks, mad-as-a-rabid-dog viewerbase is king when it comes to making money my honest take is that between the known dogshit polling (who here would answer their phone for an unknown caller? be serious.), the known dogshit media (sanewashing trump), and everything else, is that polls don't loving matter any more. the only thing that is going to matter is who turns out more asses by the end of election day. polls are, in 2024, worse than useless
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Oct 21, 2024 22:39
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Polls can be useful, like when they helped force that albatross Joe Biden from the ticket.
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Oct 21, 2024 23:00
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psydude posted:GA doesn't have the electoral votes to make up for PA. If she wins GA and NC or NV together, yes, but I'd argue that if she's in a position to win GA or NC, then she's also likely going to carry the rust belt. Good point. When doing my run downs on 270towin if GA tips Harris then NV becomes Blue automatically. Mainly because Harris has been doing well there afaict. Zamujasa posted:it wouldn't be that bad if we had a media environment capable of even beginning to educate the electorate on the issues instead of recognizing and exploiting that a dumb-as-rocks, mad-as-a-rabid-dog viewerbase is king when it comes to making money As a society we have gotten to a point where we can curate our news feeds. A few studies have shown how different a person’s news feed was based on if they were right or left leaning. The problem is so bad that pay news service ground news is trying to make it a feature to highlight stories that “the other side” is covering. This is the dystopian future we all predicted. Just no cyberware yet.
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Oct 21, 2024 23:01
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Zamujasa posted:(who here would answer their phone for an unknown caller? be serious.) Hah, my phone won't even let me. It'll silently screen suspicious calls, and if they don't leave a voicemail I'll never know unless I check my spam calls log. And that's not even something I had to set up, it's enabled by default.
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Oct 21, 2024 23:44
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Wingnut Ninja posted:Hah, my phone won't even let me. It'll silently screen suspicious calls, and if they don't leave a voicemail I'll never know unless I check my spam calls log. And that's not even something I had to set up, it's enabled by default. about half of the calls i get do this, the other half still ring. but they'll usually end up leaving a silent 5 second voice mail or nothing at all. i havent gotten a legit call on my cell phone in months. i can't remember the last time i got one. Nystral posted:Good point. When doing my run downs on 270towin if GA tips Harris then NV becomes Blue automatically. Mainly because Harris has been doing well there afaict. you can curate your news feeds, sure, but how many of those news feeds are reputable, willing to say what needs to be said, and are easily accessible/well known? my point is more that we've had a breakdown of media responsibility in the last decades. the news is just another propaganda outlet.
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Oct 21, 2024 23:49
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facialimpediment posted:Serious answer is that it's not cute enough to get around the vote buying laws, which DOJ could immediately enforce. The sweepstakes thing is probably cute enough to dodge Garland getting off his rear end, but supposedly it's really close. Ah thanks for explaining. Platystemon posted:Polls can be useful, like when they helped force that albatross Joe Biden from the ticket. It’s still wild how without that debate we’d be stuck with Biden right now, dunno if that would have been winnable.
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Oct 22, 2024 00:14
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All unknown callers go to voicemail. I will never answer the phone for a pollster. I think the one time I did a poll I was stopped on the sidewalk.
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Oct 22, 2024 00:39
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Nystral posted:The problem is so bad that pay news service ground news is trying to make it a feature to highlight stories that “the other side” is covering. The idea sounds really good, but they advertise like crazy on youtube via sponsored videos. And I automatically distrust anything advertised that heavily on youtube.
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Oct 22, 2024 00:42
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CBJSprague24 posted:it's down to PA and whoever wins it wins the whole thing. To put it in perspective, a Dem hasn't won the White House without winning PA since 1948. I'm not saying anything is certain, but if PA somehow gets called early on election night, which would require a healthy margin, I'd feel pretty loving good about the rest of the night. Handsome Ralph fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Oct 22, 2024 |
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Oct 22, 2024 01:02
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Hyrax Attack! posted:It’s still wild how without that debate we’d be stuck with Biden right now, dunno if that would have been winnable. Not even slightly. All of that polling was completely outside the margins of error, to the extent where you could actually learn from it. Not to mention that every downballot democrat was basically running in terror away from him, that was going to have some serious undertow. Still pretty clear it was a media-induced shivving accelerated by those democrats though. Donnie's been worse lately. Handsome Ralph posted:To put it in perspective, a Dem hasn't won the White House without winning PA since 1948. I'm not saying anything is certain, but if PA somehow gets called early on election night, which would require a healthy margin, I'd feel pretty loving good about the rest of the night. Won't be called early, over/under is Saturday. Pennsylvania is one of those states where Republicans don't allow the early/mail-delivered votes to be prepped or counted early because they want to amplify the "FRAAAAAUD" bullshit. Pennsylvania will be doing the best they can, but things are going to be fucky for a few days. An additional complication is that nobody knows what the mix of those mail-in ballots are going to be like. Back in 2020, they were predominantly democratic due to COVID. A ton of those Democratic voters won't be voting mail/absentee anymore and will be showing up on election day instead. Plus, the RNC / downballot Republicans are desperately trying to have Donnie make mouth noises supporting mail ballots to lock their voters in. He usually mouth noises his support enough for Republicans to put it on a mailer, then calls it fraud an hour later.
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Oct 22, 2024 02:23
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facialimpediment posted:Not even slightly. All of that polling was completely outside the margins of error, to the extent where you could actually learn from it. Not to mention that every downballot democrat was basically running in terror away from him, that was going to have some serious undertow. Oh yeah I read how post debate the New Mexico Democrat in the senate race was upset as Biden was such a drag the race was shifting from likely Dem to only lean Dem, utterly dire sign for any chance of gaining control of Congress & not a good indicator for securing swing states. Not sure I agree about it being a media induced shivving, had several reliable Democrat voting friends/family who watched the debate immediately express great concern about how terrible he looked, and they hadn’t needed outside prodding to feel dismay. Do agree media pushed it along but felt necessary, I remember Clooney and a local congressman respectfully but clearly making public how badly he’d declined while interacting with him away from cameras. One thing I’m hoping I’m right about is how voters with a positive image of Biden were somewhere in the 30th percentile & not on the rise, while Harris is clearing 50% in some polls. The benefit of people actually liking a candidate instead of opposing the rival may be huge. Hyrax Attack! fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Oct 22, 2024 |
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Oct 22, 2024 02:39
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Platystemon posted:Polls can be useful, like when they helped force that albatross Joe Biden from the ticket. tbh it was the fundraising drying up that did it more than any polling
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Oct 22, 2024 02:49
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Herstory Begins Now posted:tbh it was the fundraising drying up that did it more than any polling Yeah, as soon as enough rich donors closed their wallets, that was it. It just so happens to have aligned with what a big chunk of Democratic voters wanted, so nobody really looked too hard at the cause and effect.
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Oct 22, 2024 02:54
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The donors wouldn’t have balked if polling hadn’t suggested a catastrophic outcome for Joe and the party as a whole.
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Oct 22, 2024 03:02
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idk i was balking the second i saw him in the debate, that poo poo was horrific
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Oct 22, 2024 03:04
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Herstory Begins Now posted:idk i was balking the second i saw him in the debate, that poo poo was horrific I remain perplexed that his main proponents after that disaster were folks nominally on the left. While I sorta get the more level-headed Bernie and AOC position that he was better for labor than any alternative, the loud screeching from some segments of the online left that it was all a "donor coup" that must be vehemently rejected was bizarre. A lot of it was disgustingly cynical outrage bait from the dirtbag "left", but there were a handful of sources of it in my follows that surprised me.
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Oct 22, 2024 03:28
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Hyrax Attack! posted:The benefit of people actually liking a candidate instead of opposing the rival may be huge. More races should try that, I don't think I've been excited about voting for somebody since a friend's dad was running for state legislature in the 90s but I've voted against a whole bunch of shitstains in the last quarter century and I'm pretty resigned to never actually being happy about any of the names I see on a ballot for the rest of my life.
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Oct 22, 2024 03:38
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Before Biden stepped down I really felt like the Democrats were determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It was a huge relief to get Harris.
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Oct 22, 2024 03:45
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Cugel the Clever posted:Plus one. I've judged the Biden admin fairly highly, minus the obvious major exception of maintaining the country's decades-long blind support for Israel, but his 2024 campaign was done as soon as he mumbled through his first sentence at the debate. at least some speculation was that the push for biden was because the alternative being floated was a blitz primary, and from there it follows that with little time to do fundraising or anything it would fall down to whoever the richest decided to fund not saying that is the case, just that it made some sense as a plausible, not-insane take; the fact they immediately gathered around kamala when biden did drop out is interesting
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Oct 22, 2024 03:48
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And in non-US federal elections happening in 2024 things: The Green Party of BC once again may throw the provincial election for us, because there are two electoral districts populated by retired hippies constantly having LSD flashbacks who will always vote Green. Current spread with about 45,000 ballots left to be counted is 46 seats for the New Democratic Party (center-left), 45 for the Conservative Party (exactly what it says on the tin), and 2 for the Greens (ideologically spongey, like Joe Rogan with eco-friendly wallpaper). 47 seats are needed for a majority government. gently caress I hate Green voters so much man.
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Oct 22, 2024 03:50
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