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https://x.com/stevenghill/status/1849477949747003679?t=FeZZ174hSheozbnJI4QfIg&s=19 Naturally, they claim he didn't send that old postcard from Palm Beach with his polygraph-lookin' rear end signature on it. facialimpediment posted:The majority of them probably think that Fox News isn't "mass media" (even though they're the biggest), or they've defected from Fox News completely to Newsmax/OAN/RSBN if they think Fox News is too "mass media.". Probably a question phrasing thing. FOX themselves don't think they're mass/mainstream media. I had to suffer through enough Five visiting my dad to have learned that  tidbit.
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Oct 25, 2024 22:35
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AP did the work today.quote:After he spoke in Austin, Trump greeted executives from Blue Origin, the space exploration company owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos.
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Oct 25, 2024 22:41
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Oh so that’s not just his dumb signature and it’s how he writes everything? I didn’t know handwriting could be so egregiously insufferable.
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Oct 25, 2024 22:42
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he somehow makes English cursive look like Cyrillic cursive
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Oct 25, 2024 22:51
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Interesting thread of six or seven tweets from someone who says most of their career was in political analysis: https://x.com/StayWonked/status/1849786990125891935?t=qxFQq-bOGCJjftwX-VytPQ&s=19 What says the GIP hivemind? Is he on to something?
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Oct 25, 2024 23:39
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CBJSprague24 posted:Interesting thread of six or seven tweets from someone who says most of their career was in political analysis: My man, I loving hope so.
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Oct 25, 2024 23:43
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Pine Cone Jones posted:My man, I loving hope so.
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Oct 25, 2024 23:45
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CBJSprague24 posted:Interesting thread of six or seven tweets from someone who says most of their career was in political analysis: Also, I can't see the other tweets as I deleted my twitter
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Oct 25, 2024 23:48
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CBJSprague24 posted:Interesting thread of six or seven tweets from someone who says most of their career was in political analysis: *nods at account I’ve never heard of telling me what I want to hear* it’s my lock of the week
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Oct 25, 2024 23:49
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CBJSprague24 posted:What says the GIP hivemind? Is he on to something? 75% copium, 25% legitimate. Texas/Florida might be margin of error, but real close to outside the margin of error. Donnie/Kamala are effectively tied in favorability. The rally in Texas is not to put Texas in play, it's to put abortion back in the headlines because of the poo poo Abbott is doing. And a good counterexample is the amount of money Republicans are putting in fresh into Nevada because they like the early voting numbers (which are still too early to draw conclusions from). Right track / wrong track numbers are also heavily skewed towards a sour mood. It's essentially a tied, to maybe D+2 national environment in a polling desert that only spits out margin-of-error numbers (after "Shy Donnie Voter" adjustment) or numbers near where they were in 2020. The election is coming down to campaign versus cult - Kamala's competent, established GOTV structure and clearly superior campaign, versus Donnie's cult and money chucklefucklery coming in to compensate. Lots of smart campaign watchers give a slight edge to Donnie, I lean Harris just due to competency of the above. But that could be personal bias and my general viewpoint that Kamala's basically been mistake-free and couldn't have run a much better campaign within the overall environment (Gaza, inflation, etc). Basically, polls are *always* wrong, but if they go wrong by a normal amount, could be a blowout on either side. Neither side is acting like there's a blowout brewing. 
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Oct 25, 2024 23:58
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Pine Cone Jones posted:Also, I can't see the other tweets as I deleted my twitter For what it's worth in case anybody else is in Pine Cone's boat: https://twitter.com/StayWonked/status/1849787792844333352 https://twitter.com/StayWonked/status/1849787796363358541 https://twitter.com/StayWonked/status/1849787800012357748 https://twitter.com/StayWonked/status/1849787803736887581 https://twitter.com/StayWonked/status/1849843133489590686
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Oct 25, 2024 23:58
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CBJSprague24 posted:For what it's worth in case anybody else is in Pine Cone's boat: I'll say I'm drunk and channeling my dad, who once asked why no one shot down the Koch's plane. Please let this poo poo be true. Let trump get stomped like loving Mondale.
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Oct 26, 2024 00:02
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The early voting figures are weird, and no one knows what to do with them.
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Oct 26, 2024 00:03
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Platystemon posted:The early voting figures are weird, and no one knows what to do with them. Impossible to know too, for the same reason pollsters don't really know how to weigh their samples right. Republicans are really turning out, but that's mostly because Donnie suddenly shifted and fully promoted early voting. Democrats are lagging on their usual mail-in strength, but that's because they mostly don't care about the pandemic anymore. I'm seeing lots of hyper-political people on my feeds only voting NOW, in person, when I mailed my poo poo in two weeks ago. We don't know how much Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote and converting it to early. We don't know how much Democrats have abandoned mail vote in favor of early/election day voting. Yay! Edit: oh and I saw a thing where there's some poo poo like R+5% on the returned ballot quantity, but women being 55% of the returned ballots. 1 + 1 = cheddar facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Oct 26, 2024 |
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Oct 26, 2024 00:15
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CBJSprague24 posted:For what it's worth in case anybody else is in Pine Cone's boat: How the heck would democrats winning Congress eradicate MAGA? They’d still be as obstructionist as possible with the additional advantage of not needing to pass a budget & would be posturing and criticizing every step the Dems take & trying to generate nonstop scandals. Plus we’re gonna see a lot of Jan 6ers ending up in the House & who knows if one with have charisma & not be dumb as a post.
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Oct 26, 2024 00:42
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I think there was only one Q shaman though. Also MAGA is going to fight with non-maga republicans possibly even more than dems.
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Oct 26, 2024 00:59
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I don't think you can "eradicate MAGA" at this point. They literally ate horse dewormer and somehow the movement survived.
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Oct 26, 2024 01:02
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That twitter user guy who says Florida gonna go strongly for Harris is not on the election “Actually Knows Things” analysis list. I’m sure Wasserman, et al just forgot to add him.
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Oct 26, 2024 01:20
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CBJSprague24 posted:For what it's worth in case anybody else is in Pine Cone's boat: This reads like someone got ahold of this analysis: https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1 and then started theory crafting and fantasizing on top of it.
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Oct 26, 2024 01:23
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FWIW about a month or so Jamelle Bouie was bullish on the election outcome for similar reasons (swing state senate race polling, Harris' climbing favorability ratings, the major disconnects in ground game between the two campaigns), although I don't think he went as far as predicting a full blowout. There's also the fact that Harris has managed to close within a few points of Trump on the question of who would be better on the economy, while most of Trump's endgame messaging seems focused on culture war crap like anti-trans that failed to gain any traction back in 2022. But then again, the average voter is inscrutable and possibly suffering from chronic heavy metal poisoning so who knows.
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Oct 26, 2024 01:30
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I suspect the race is less close than most of the narratives around it suggest but holy gently caress is it stupid and premature to say the words blowoutTerrifying Effigies posted:FWIW about a month or so Jamelle Bouie was bullish on the election outcome for similar reasons (swing state senate race polling, Harris' climbing favorability ratings, the major disconnects in ground game between the two campaigns), although I don't think he went as far as predicting a full blowout. There's also the fact that Harris has managed to close within a few points of Trump on the question of who would be better on the economy, while most of Trump's endgame messaging seems focused on culture war crap like anti-trans that failed to gain any traction back in 2022. yeah at most I'd say that there are some compelling reasons to be bullish, but we're basically still in the first quarter as far as voting is concerned. there's still time for so much to happen Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:39 on Oct 26, 2024 |
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Oct 26, 2024 01:36
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"I wanted to spend more time with Joe Rogan, so please stick around another at least 3 hours and---" https://x.com/megan_lebowitz/status/1849968164357931209?t=HFDPuwn6olobBBQccqyjJg&s=19 https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1849974811121906135?t=EUKH6teQnF4YE5KPXu75-A&s=19
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Oct 26, 2024 01:44
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haha kamala was right
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Oct 26, 2024 01:47
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imo the real kicker is just how wet our wettest boy was after the three hours with rogan https://x.com/atrupar/status/1849972061118071140
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Oct 26, 2024 01:49
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mlmp08 posted:That twitter user guy who says Florida gonna go strongly for Harris is not on the election “Actually Knows Things” analysis list. I’m sure Wasserman, et al just forgot to add him. That string of tweets sure has the potential to age like a bottle of fine piss in the sun though.
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Oct 26, 2024 01:51
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Terrifying Effigies posted:FWIW about a month or so Jamelle Bouie was bullish on the election outcome for similar reasons (swing state senate race polling, Harris' climbing favorability ratings, the major disconnects in ground game between the two campaigns), although I don't think he went as far as predicting a full blowout. There's also the fact that Harris has managed to close within a few points of Trump on the question of who would be better on the economy, while most of Trump's endgame messaging seems focused on culture war crap like anti-trans that failed to gain any traction back in 2022. Oh yeah just a guess but I think the impact of voters actually liking Harris, as opposed to Hillary or Biden, will be a big positive. Man I dunno how if Biden had stayed in how it could have been winnable. Especially as GOP could have stuck to roadmap & probably had some surprises lined up that fizzled, like how they were trudging into Hunter Biden hearings when few care anymore.
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Oct 26, 2024 02:08
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CBJSprague24 posted:Interesting thread of six or seven tweets from someone who says most of their career was in political analysis: Does his analysis align with what I want? Then I like it. Does his analysis go against what I want? Then it is bullshit.
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Oct 26, 2024 02:39
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that gum you like is going to come back in style https://x.com/KevinlyFather/status/1849997368277827838/video/1 fuckin shriveled-up rear end dale cooper shitbag
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Oct 26, 2024 02:45
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The election is 50/50 at this point so flip a coin. Whichever way it falls, its most likely to fall hard in that direction, which might appear to be a large win/blowout in hindsight. Its not, just how our system is set up and how likely nearest neighbors are to move in the same direction.
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Oct 26, 2024 02:47
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facialimpediment posted:that gum you like is going to come back in style If he rambled for three hours & it turned out he was recapping Lincoln in the Bardo, well, I’d be surprised.
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Oct 26, 2024 02:51
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It looks like Donnie may have already been in Michigan but waited to come out hoping to steal thunder from Kamala (he came out within 30 seconds of her) but he’s crowd is minor where she’s filled a stadium. I know Texas isn’t in play, but I’m sure he’s going to bed mad about the optic at his genius at to upstage Beyonce.
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Oct 26, 2024 02:59
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lightpole posted:The election is 50/50 at this point so flip a coin. Whichever way it falls, its most likely to fall hard in that direction, which might appear to be a large win/blowout in hindsight. Its not, just how our system is set up and how likely nearest neighbors are to move in the same direction. This is where I land. Even if the final EC tally is 300 to whatever it’s a bunch of 50.1 to 49.9 results across the country.
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Oct 26, 2024 03:10
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Honestly I've been feeling for a little while now that the pieces have been falling into place for a blowout and wrestling with whether it's my own wishful thinking fooling me. It's not even that I think it's likely, just that the sort mistakes and hubris I'd associate with historic collapses seem to be lining up for the GOP. Maybe the better way to put it is that I didn't necessarily think it's going to happen, but the things that would need to happen for the unlikely outcome to occur are happening. Reminds me very much of how I felt in the first 24 hours of the Russian invasion of Ukraine when early reports were coming back of how poorly hostomel and their logistics were being executed. It's like the hope is so fragile you're afraid to even think it, but you can see the path.
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Oct 26, 2024 05:15
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Elviscat posted:That string of tweets sure has the potential to age like a bottle of fine piss in the sun though. It seems like a whole lot of copium to me, but I'd be super happy if he was right. I'm feeling loving nervous right now.
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Oct 26, 2024 05:28
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pantslesswithwolves posted:It seems like a whole lot of copium to me, but I'd be super happy if he was right. Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, I'm in the same boat.
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Oct 26, 2024 05:40
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Kazinsal posted:I don't think you can "eradicate MAGA" at this point. They literally ate horse dewormer and somehow the movement survived. I am inclined to agree with this. And this isn't doomerism, I'm a civil engineer and its like 80/20 R/D. e: I absolutely do not tell people that I'm a registered Democrat. SquirrelyPSU fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Oct 26, 2024 |
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Oct 26, 2024 06:05
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CBJSprague24 posted:Interesting thread of six or seven tweets from someone who says most of their career was in political analysis: Stupid, reckless bullshit. The idea that anything about the ultimate outcome of this election is already well understood is hubris. There is just under two weeks remaining. It's possible that everything they're seeing at this point is just noise.
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Oct 26, 2024 06:10
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Jarmak posted:Honestly I've been feeling for a little while now that the pieces have been falling into place for a blowout and wrestling with whether it's my own wishful thinking fooling me.
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Oct 26, 2024 06:16
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https://acoup.blog/2024/10/25/new-acquisitions-1933-and-the-definition-of-fascism/ Bret Devereaux, the historian, has assessed whether Trump is running on a fascist platform.
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Oct 26, 2024 08:51
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This thread needs some comic relief. https://x.com/BlackKnight10k/status/1849930497704538161
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Oct 26, 2024 10:27
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