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Platystemon posted:She’s stealing your posts. she can have it, i just want to be done
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Nov 2, 2024 11:10
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Flikken posted:They only did that because 3 democrat judges ended up on the Ohio Supreme Court. With the 3 Dems running on Tuesday we could possibly flip the the court Ohio is a loving disaster of unchecked republican power who understand that they will face no consequences for anything they do. Really hoping enough past trump voters are annoyed enough by that to pass issue 1 for the third attempt at ending gerrymandering (which was polling at 60% but the GOP sec of state made it's official ballot language say the opposite of what it does) and flip the SC. If not, we are pretty hosed.
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Nov 2, 2024 13:03
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Good amount of porn in this Atlantic article from a reporter that's been embedded in the campaign during the better times: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/ A recap: Everyone's really miserable. Donnie's been self-sabotaging since the Kamala swap because he's essentially "tired of winning" and bored. Corey Lewandowski indeed came on and tried to ursurp the actual campaign managers. One of them is basically a crook, skimming money off the top due to his ad connections (revealed in a planted story by Lewandowski after he basically got kicked off the campaign). And my personal favorite thing: there's a particular 4channy chud mid-level staffer, Alex Bruesewitz, that's basically tied into all the hyperchud podcasters from his time with JD. He's basically been the chud booker to the stars, getting Donnie on all the manoverse podcasts. But, he was instrumental in elevating the Eating the Dogs/Cats thing to JD's level, without overall campaign knowledge, leading to Donnie chomping on it and barfing it out during the debate. And Bruesewitz was the one who booked Tony Hinchcliffe to do the MSG rally. Nobody in senior staff even bothered to watch his material in advance. Two of the biggest fuckups of the campaign caused by having a chud that's too online.
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Nov 2, 2024 13:13
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facialimpediment posted:Donnie's been self-sabotaging since the Kamala swap because he's essentially "tired of winning" and bored. Not that this is earth-shattering, but this seems to confirm the suspicion that he's only running to avoid prison.
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Nov 2, 2024 13:37
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CBJSprague24 posted:Not that this is earth-shattering, but this seems to confirm the suspicion that he's only running to avoid prison. Worked for Netanyahu. Still wild how if trump had yelled something about unfair moderators & no showed the first debate & not rescheduled, we’d be uh not in a good mental state right now looking at a map. Hyrax Attack! fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Nov 2, 2024 |
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Nov 2, 2024 14:26
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https://twitter.com/jamesdaviesnz/status/1852707848104600047 He's saying the quiet part out loud again.
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Nov 2, 2024 14:58
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Cythereal posted:https://twitter.com/jamesdaviesnz/status/1852707848104600047 i mean, we all know it won't mean anything, but for gently caress's sake
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Nov 2, 2024 20:48
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He's very obviously trying to emphasize that the women in question are some of the strongest people he knows, not say that they aren't people. I hope he dies painfully but we sound like histrionic dipshits when we spout off over obvious misinterpretations.
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Nov 2, 2024 22:44
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Yeah you can clean that up with an implied “[just]”, which is frankly way less than it takes to fix most of Biden’s flubs. Does the man respect women? Hell no, but that’s not the smoking gun you’re looking for.
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Nov 2, 2024 22:55
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Um. This is the gold standard Iowa pollster. In a poll of Iowa. https://x.com/brianneDMR/status/1852849339942510952?t=q_h7qZ55VCoszROruY703Q&s=19 Neither party believes this - but even if it's an outlier, what in the gently caress? facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Nov 2, 2024 |
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Nov 2, 2024 23:06
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Make trump into the new Mondale
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Nov 2, 2024 23:10
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At this point there have to be right leaning types that are just fatigued at holding their nose and voting for this rear end in a top hat hoping a break will just see him go away.
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Nov 2, 2024 23:11
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that state re-elected the dipshit lich Chuck Grassley in 2022, gonna have to assume that poll in simply in error
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Nov 2, 2024 23:13
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pmchem posted:that state re-elected the dipshit lich Chuck Grassley in 2022, gonna have to assume that poll in simply in error Nope. She nailed that one too in 2022. Final poll was 53-41 Grassley, with Grassley's margin the highest out of the 538 pollsters, and the result was 56-44. Jon Ralston is the analyst Oracle of Nevada, Ann Selzer is the Iowa God of Polling. https://x.com/MattKleinOnline/status/1852849716788084910
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Nov 2, 2024 23:18
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https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3l7yso32icj2fquote:some history for those of you who aren’t election sickos:
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Nov 2, 2024 23:19
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Harris winning Iowa would be...well outside of expectations, but Obama did win the state in 2008 and 2012. And if Selzer's right, then God willing we might actually have a short night on Tuesday.
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Nov 2, 2024 23:24
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A good pollster will get some wrong just due to randomness, but at least Selzer built her reputation by going with what her numbers show rather than herding.
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Nov 2, 2024 23:29
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we’ll see. since 2012 all her errors favored dems. i expect this will be another case of that. i’d be thrilled to be wrong.
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Nov 2, 2024 23:31
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from another threadquote:n 2012 they gave Obama a 5% lead over Romney. Obama won by 5.8%. pmchem posted:we’ll see. since 2012 all her errors favored dems. i expect this will be another case of that. i’d be thrilled to be wrong. the poll has a moe of ±3.4% and you're looking at doubling, tripling that margin just to catch up where he used to be. that'd be one hell of an error
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Nov 2, 2024 23:36
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facialimpediment posted:Um. i dont find that hard to believe at all really
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Nov 2, 2024 23:38
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Kamala has made an unannounced side trip to New York. CNN thinks she's going on SNL. facialimpediment posted:Nope. She nailed that one too in 2022. Final poll was 53-41 Grassley, with Grassley's margin the highest out of the 538 pollsters, and the result was 56-44. Jon Ralston is the analyst Oracle of Nevada, Ann Selzer is the Iowa God of Polling. Combine this with what Vantage Data House suggested in that link posted a few pages ago, and it starts to line up in a good way. ICYMI: https://x.com/vantage_dh/status/1849181247072784833?t=1ObaW87gM2fHVKcJ9uytpw&s=19 E- TheKingslayer posted:At this point there have to be right leaning types that are just fatigued at holding their nose and voting for this rear end in a top hat hoping a break will just see him go away. There was a commercial narrated by George Clooney which was reminding people nobody knew who people were going to vote for when they vote. I wonder if people will take that to heart in a big way. CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Nov 3, 2024 |
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Nov 3, 2024 00:02
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Herstory Begins Now posted:i dont find that hard to believe at all really Pfeiffer has the options right: https://x.com/danpfeiffer/status/1852854243109249385?t=uL5MgaY3OIfLObLyYtbU6Q&s=19 There's also a large contingent of politics folks that believe Harris is holding all of Biden's support from white people (which matches Iowa and Blue Wall strength), while losing some of Biden's nonwhite people (which matches weakness in Arizona/Nevada/Georgia). My general viewpoint there is that "nonwhite weakness" is likely an overread of teensy samples, but there's been some oversamples which show just as much weakness. If I were kamala's team with more money than god, I'd think about chucking a million to Iowa media as a flyer since Nevada's early vote is running rough at the moment.
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Nov 3, 2024 00:04
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Lisan al Gaib numbers on that Selzer poll, holy poo poo.
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Nov 3, 2024 00:06
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CBJSprague24 posted:Kamala has made an unannounced side trip to New York. NYT confirms via "a source". I hope she does Weekend Update!
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Nov 3, 2024 00:09
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facialimpediment posted:Pfeiffer has the options right: An iowa goon made an interesting post about the state of things in iowa today/a few days ago that is worth a read https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4051238&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=9032#post542922675
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Nov 3, 2024 00:15
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https://x.com/Bakari_Sellers/status/1852749843275329846?t=M6BTaP3WVTCW4pYzXTPdoA&s=19 Is all of this people starting to jump out of line from the mainstream talking points and suggest we're in for a good time this week?
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Nov 3, 2024 00:22
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TheKingslayer posted:At this point there have to be right leaning types that are just fatigued at holding their nose and voting for this rear end in a top hat hoping a break will just see him go away. I've posted about seeing a surprising number of Harris signs in rural Missouri, but I was thinking about it the other day and another telling thing for me is the lack of Trump signs where there should absolutely be Trump signs. I see plenty of places with signs supporting the abortion ban and Josh Hawley, etc... that don't have a Trump sign anywhere to be seen. This place is not full of shy Trump voters either. I've seen less Trump signs, truck flags, etc... over the past few months than I have at any point in the 2 years I've been out here. They're still out there but I absolutely believe his support has softened considerably among what should be some of his staunchest base supporters.
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Nov 3, 2024 00:25
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CBJSprague24 posted:Is all of this people starting to jump out of line from the mainstream talking points and suggest we're in for a good time this week? A good time is very much possible, but lots of people are overreading early votes at the moment. Like there are some rural areas of Georgia that have outvoted their 2020 total in JUST the early vote. Good, solid analysts do not know what to think about what Jon Ralston calls The Unicorn Year. It's all because democrats quit caring about the pandemic, republicans stopped believe early/mail votes are fraud, and no pollster has a solid handle on what the electorate actually is. And there's a GIANT concern from pollsters if they underweight the trump vote again. If they do, people might just be fuckin done with polling, as already a whole bunch of firms quit doing them. https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1852868172493258902?t=j5GRFGz5tMGr8UNfgqnnqA&s=19 facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Nov 3, 2024 |
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Nov 3, 2024 00:28
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If Harris’ Iowa lead is real that is a great sign as guessing she hasn’t spent much time or money there. I know it’s extremely unlikely but if she wins OH/TX/FL, well, that would be fun to see I suppose.
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Nov 3, 2024 00:39
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Man... my plan for election night is a minimum of 10mg edible and not turning on any news whatsoever. I cannot take this any more.
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Nov 3, 2024 00:42
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Hyrax Attack! posted:I know it’s extremely unlikely but if she wins OH/TX/FL, well, that would be fun to see I suppose. In the unlikely event that any of those flip, how does the Republican Party respond? Do the sane people find a way to claw back control or do the insane people keep their foot on the gas?
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Nov 3, 2024 00:48
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fknlo posted:In the unlikely event that any of those flip, how does the Republican Party respond? Do the sane people find a way to claw back control or do the insane people keep their foot on the gas? They figure out more ways to suppress the vote and the radical courts continue to let them.
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Nov 3, 2024 00:58
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Hyrax Attack! posted:If Harris’ Iowa lead is real that is a great sign as guessing she hasn’t spent much time or money there. I know it’s extremely unlikely but if she wins OH/TX/FL, well, that would be fun to see I suppose. Ohio seems similar to the Missouri anecdote- not as many fervent Trumpers, with a seemingly even number of signs for each candidate seen in my area. Stultus Maximus posted:Man... my plan for election night is a minimum of 10mg edible and not turning on any news whatsoever. I cannot take this any more. Normally, I don't like time flying. I've been trying to make it haul rear end the last few weeks.
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Nov 3, 2024 01:08
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fknlo posted:In the unlikely event that any of those flip, how does the Republican Party respond? Do the sane people find a way to claw back control or do the insane people keep their foot on the gas? Complete and total clusterfuck. There is no other trump, there will be lots of imitators, and they'll all suck. Stultus Maximus posted:Man... my plan for election night is a minimum of 10mg edible and not turning on any news whatsoever. I cannot take this any more. tbh I haven't thought about politics at all the entire day as I've been working on my house, watching football, and I'm at a streetlight manifesto show. I highly recommend either zoning out or make a list of nonstop poo poo to do that day, and preferably a few more. Part of the reason I work as a poll worker every year, makes election day fly by. And if I get punched by / shot by / cause the arrest of a trumper, nobody will ever hear the end of it from me.
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Nov 3, 2024 01:11
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As has been mentioned many times in this thread, the Republicans are for some reason making all of their ads 100% about Immigration and trans women playing girls sports. Since I live in Ohio with the Sherrod Brown - Bernie Moreno senate campaign it's been especially bad. Today I saw a pro-Moreno ad with the tagline that Sherrod Brown is "For They/Them, not You" lmao
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Nov 3, 2024 01:11
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fknlo posted:In the unlikely event that any of those flip, how does the Republican Party respond? Do the sane people find a way to claw back control or do the insane people keep their foot on the gas? That’s a big unknown as so much of their national leadership has been wrecked by the grifter, but really they’d be fine as they pretty much can’t go below 40 senate seats even in absurdly blue typhoon years, electoral college is a massive advantage, and big pocketed donors aren’t going anywhere. On the other hand we are in unknown territory & if he flees post election to Russia & irrefutable evidence emerges he’d been taking payments from Putin for years in exchange for military secrets, could maybe see enough GOP house/senate members starting a new party. Although with a two party system would probably just be a rebrand.
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Nov 3, 2024 01:13
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Whoever came up with the They/Them line must think they are so loving clever.
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Nov 3, 2024 01:15
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I'm not going to really dare to hope until after voting closes, but in watching chunks of trump rallies for the last month or two almost without exception he launches into some real rotbrain rambling and you see looks on peoples' faces that are the exact same thing you were seeing on dems after the first debate. Like I remember how viscerally unsettling and demotivating that was and there's no way that isn't having an impact. No idea how much of one though.
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Nov 3, 2024 01:17
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Just blaring on the foghorn of "we don't like you if you're not cis, white, and male" seems to be the last thing the GOP has in the tank. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ru8DMW-grY
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Nov 3, 2024 01:18
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Like everyone else has said, if that Iowa poll is remotely accurate Trump's orange rear end is loving cooked.
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Nov 3, 2024 01:19
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