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MonkeyFit posted:And the documents case against him is actually about as solid as they come. The one that got dismissed and will probably still be presided by the same judge even when the court of appeals smacks it down? I don't have a lot of hope for that case considering the judge's obvious bias.
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Jul 28, 2024 17:23
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Coasterphreak posted:What should really astound you is that a politician voluntarily gave up a chance to remain in power. Part of the breakdown of the current moment is that, not only do Trump and Co. flaunt norms, they reject the authority of the system's institutions in favor of an authoritarian personalism. The system has failed to defend itself against an overt cancerous actor because it's not been set up to contain such and the cancer has had a chance to metastasize deep into institutions, as seen with anti-Democratic GOP representatives, judges, and Justices.
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Jul 28, 2024 17:50
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McNally posted:The one that got dismissed and will probably still be presided by the same judge even when the court of appeals smacks it down? Smith has a pretty solid case to get it moved to a different judge at this point. How many other times has the appeals court had to smack her down on this case alone? You're right, if it goes before the same judge, it's anything goes. But under a different judge? I doubt it.
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Jul 28, 2024 18:04
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MonkeyFit posted:If Trump loses, I'd be very surprised if hos health issues didn't catch up to him before the next election. Dude eats like poo poo and does no real exercise. And the documents case against him is actually about as solid as they come. Do I think he'd see jail time? No, but only because I would expect him to have a stress induced heart attack before then. I think those massive court case judgements will catch up even before that.
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Jul 28, 2024 18:07
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Mappo posted:If Trump loses, he will attempt to run again. He's not going to give up his position as head of the GOP; he won't appoint an heir and then calmly step aside. I don't expect his base to automatically leave him because he lost again, he will claim a rigged election just like last time. Trump isn't going away until he falls over dead, and then there will be a massive power vacuum in the republican party because no one can match his charisma. if he loses there's a decent chance he promptly launches an effort to overturn the results, not just yell about it being rigged on truth social
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Jul 28, 2024 18:24
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Coasterphreak posted:My tinfoil hat brain half thinks Biden stayed in the race as long as he did to make sure Trump dug himself a nice deep hole. If that was the galaxy brain plan, it fuckin worked Well it looks like it’s working out that way but I really doubt it was intentional, especially the part of Biden humiliating himself during the debate & trump getting shot at not derailing the scheme. Although it is fascinating how badly trump is struggling to pivot from Biden to Harris. Especially how went from democrats doing a lot of the work for him being mad at Biden, to huge crowds & hordes of thrilled volunteers & Vance is being a weirdo.
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Jul 28, 2024 18:38
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Well, when you have a bad case of smoothbrains it’s hard to pivot from a rhetoric you’ve been peddling for years
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Jul 28, 2024 18:45
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Coasterphreak posted:My tinfoil hat brain half thinks Biden stayed in the race as long as he did to make sure Trump dug himself a nice deep hole. If that was the galaxy brain plan, it fuckin worked It can definitely look like that in hindsight, seeing how smoothly everything transferred to Harris and how much enthusiasm it generated. I 100% believe it was accidental though, both because that would be a hugely risky strategy, and because lol the Democrats. My one small bit of tinfoil hattery is that there was a lot more work going on behind the scenes prior to Biden dropping out to get people lined up for Harris. I know that's contradicted by things like accounts of Biden advisers getting one minute notice before it was twote and Harris' husband hilariously leaving his phone in the car while meeting with some friends when it went down. But the idea of something going that quickly and without drama for the Democrats is hard to fit into my world view.
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Jul 28, 2024 19:02
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MonkeyFit posted:Smith has a pretty solid case to get it moved to a different judge at this point. How many other times has the appeals court had to smack her down on this case alone? You're right, if it goes before the same judge, it's anything goes. But under a different judge? I doubt it. https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/18/politics/aileen-cannon-removal-trump-classified-documents/index.html quote:Even after a year of exasperating proceedings that featured several breaks from normal judicial procedure and that culminated in a shock ruling dismissing the classified documents indictment against Donald Trump, prosecutors would face deeply unfavorable odds at getting Judge Aileen Cannon removed from the case if it is ever revived. Alas, we're likely to see some more fuckery from Cannon.
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Jul 28, 2024 19:03
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Wingnut Ninja posted:It can definitely look like that in hindsight, seeing how smoothly everything transferred to Harris and how much enthusiasm it generated. I 100% believe it was accidental though, both because that would be a hugely risky strategy, and because lol the Democrats. Oh yeah nytimes had an article about how that day she was prepped & ready & made over a hundred phone calls to democrat powerhouses to solidify her candidacy. It was noted this display of energy from the executive branch was a relief.
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Jul 28, 2024 19:16
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"THIS TIME Trump can't escape!" I say for the 1,893rd time in the last four years
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Jul 28, 2024 19:18
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Trump has already been convicted once. I don't think it makes sense to completely give up on the court system yet. It was never going to save the US from this election, but if Trump loses again I imagine all the powerbrokers in the republican party will turn on him and make an example out of him.
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Jul 28, 2024 19:25
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Grip it and rip it posted:Trump has already been convicted once. I don't think it makes sense to completely give up on the court system yet. It was never going to save the US from this election, but if Trump loses again I imagine all the powerbrokers in the republican party will turn on him and make an example out of him. That conviction is likely to be overturned because part of the evidence used in trial was an official act that cannot be introduced at trial. There’s a reason his sentencing hearing was canceled.
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Jul 28, 2024 19:37
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Mr. Nice! posted:That conviction is likely to be overturned because part of the evidence used in trial was an official act that cannot be introduced at trial. There’s a reason his sentencing hearing was canceled.
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Jul 28, 2024 20:04
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:Does that mean the conviction will be overturned, and if so mean he is safe from future prosecution for those crimes, or a mistrial gets declared? It’s a weird situation since the decision on immunity wasn’t made until after the evidence in question had already been presented and a verdict reached. Popehat and others think that the judge will keep the conviction and proceed to mid-September sentencing, declaring all the previous stuff Donnie is complaining about as a "harmless error". It'll clusterfuck for a while in the state court appeals system, probably being upheld, then it eventually gets to the federal courts where it probably gets overturned. Normally, federal courts and the supreme court love upholding things on "harmless error", but Donnie is their special boy. So at some point in the federal system, they'll probably reverse it for irreversible error and thrown the whole thing out in a mistrial. Could be tossed earlier like Mr. Nice mentioned though! The state can re-bring the charges the exact same way, as it's all unofficial acts, but pre-trial stuff would have to be handled to figure out what advisors and evidence can't come in. That's why Donnie's team is saying "you didn't do the pre-trial stuff, you must overturn". If it gets to that point, the pre-trial motions will be a lot like Congressional Speech and Debate clause evidence got barred from introduction in the Menendez trial. The State likely can't bring in Hope Hicks (presidential advisory testimony that can't come in), but the majority is fine. It'll all be sorted out by like 2026, even if the State judge keeps the verdict intact.
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Jul 28, 2024 20:22
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:Does that mean the conviction will be overturned, and if so mean he is safe from future prosecution for those crimes, or a mistrial gets declared? It’s a weird situation since the decision on immunity wasn’t made until after the evidence in question had already been presented and a verdict reached. I'm not sure the ultimate procedural posture post tossing the verdict, but every single check that he signed which underpinned the entire case was done while sitting in the oval office. Based upon the immunity decision, it will be a tough bar to clear to demonstrate that his acts aren't entitled to at least a presumption of immunity. Regardless, this will be tied up in appeals for years, as whoever loses is going to take it to the appellate division, NY court of appeals, and finally the SCOTUS.
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Jul 28, 2024 20:23
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Kind of a situation where it would've been beneficial to not piss off the trial judge. A neutral judge could easily look at the SC decision and toss the trial. An interested party that Donnie pissed off, looking at a way to keep his "felon" tag active until the end of the election?
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Jul 28, 2024 20:30
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Mr. Nice! posted:I'm not sure the ultimate procedural posture post tossing the verdict, but every single check that he signed which underpinned the entire case was done while sitting in the oval office. Based upon the immunity decision, it will be a tough bar to clear to demonstrate that his acts aren't entitled to at least a presumption of immunity. After all these years, Bill Clinton total vindication.
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Jul 28, 2024 22:35
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Jul 28, 2024 22:46
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I'd advise some caution on the Pete Souza thing. I think I remember him getting a little out there during the Donnie administration. The weekend had a lot of pushback about Donnie's line that he took a bullet for democracy because... that's not exactly conclusive. The FBI director said it was a bullet or shrapnel to Congress, which set off a chud firestorm. An FBI spokesperson basically said it was the same deal, in different words, with no medical reports or doctor interviews released yet. So chuds are trying to turn anyone asking "uh... where's the medical report" into a 9/11 bullet truther. Because surprise, Donnie lies a lot, and he's the only one saying that it was a bullet. NYT graphics modellers believe it was a straight bullet, with no ricochet or shrapnel, but that's about the only organization making a firm statement. All the other news organizations are just reciting the FBI director and they're really scared about crossing chuds about it. I expect the bandage to last through the election.
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Jul 28, 2024 23:06
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Trump was hit by a bullet that only grazed his ear. An inch over, and it would have been deadly. It’s stupid for Souza to put “hit” in scare quotes, but it’s not something that should get his account on 𝕏 deleted. Also, it wasn’t an assault rifle.
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Jul 28, 2024 23:14
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Platystemon posted:Also, it wasn’t an assault rifle. 
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Jul 28, 2024 23:19
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we still good to post couchfucker jokes? because someone dug this out of the cushions https://x.com/selina_dedalus/status/1817624852276424868
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Jul 28, 2024 23:27
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Come on, man.
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Jul 28, 2024 23:28
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Platystemon posted:Trump was hit by a bullet that only grazed his ear. An inch over, and it would have been deadly. As we all know, language is a fluid thing that's ever changing. If enough people refer to an AR-15 as an assault rifle...
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Jul 28, 2024 23:30
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the best thing to say about it would have been nothing at all, or failing that "trump's ear has healed". tweet was dumb as hell
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Jul 28, 2024 23:31
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https://x.com/NYCSanitation/status/1817592154228691263
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Jul 28, 2024 23:52
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JD's big date night
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Jul 28, 2024 23:57
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hookers on every corner
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Jul 29, 2024 00:08
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Grip it and rip it posted:As we all know, language is a fluid thing that's ever changing. If enough people refer to an AR-15 as an assault rifle... Just to clarify for a non-American (who's country banned guns the FIRST time a mentally ill lunatic went on a rampage with a duffel bag full of military-grade firearms) - is the distinction due to a lack of auto/3 round burst fire selection on the civilian version vs the M16/M4 derivatives, or something else?
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Jul 29, 2024 02:11
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Don Dongington posted:Just to clarify for a non-American (who's country banned guns the FIRST time a mentally ill lunatic went on a rampage with a duffel bag full of military-grade firearms) - is the distinction due to a lack of auto/3 round burst fire selection on the civilian version vs the M16/M4 derivatives, or something else? Yes, you cannot own an AR with full auto or burst without getting a tax stamp to have one. But people get their hands on them anyways
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Jul 29, 2024 02:24
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CommieGIR posted:Yes, you cannot own an AR with full auto or burst without getting a tax stamp to have one. Thanks for clarifying. To return to the topic at hand - early days still, but Kamala leading in the midwestern swing states is a pretty matter-ing turn of events, right? 
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Jul 29, 2024 02:39
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Don Dongington posted:Thanks for clarifying. To return to the topic at hand - early days still, but Kamala leading in the midwestern swing states is a pretty matter-ing turn of events, right?
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Jul 29, 2024 02:50
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OddObserver posted:That's labeled favorability, not vote. Yeah here's the one that's the reported vote, rather than the favorability numbers: https://x.com/ShibleyTelhami/status/1817676534615879923?t=d0OCGESa0xYls0szmeoW4w&s=19 The key takeaway is this: https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1817595886693712055?t=Lxa8BBgHkiw2DHQylrVbtA&s=19 The race went from polls being able to tell you who was going to win, to a race where polls aren't going to be able to tell you who's going to win. At this exact moment, Donnie's a probable slight favorite, but not by much anymore. It's tied. Edit: and this should tell you everything about how Republicans are feeling about it, they're really pissed about air bud dunking on them https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1817722684089713119?t=qMmeY9hHVhSDO1GxUR9ldA&s=19 facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Jul 29, 2024 |
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Jul 29, 2024 03:12
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I’ve won as many elections as Vivek & Andrew Yang combined.
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Jul 29, 2024 03:41
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I mean he does have a point that the Dems should also be rolling out a policy platform beyond "Wow, Project 2025 sure is a stinker amirite??", in addition to calling out the freakshow opposite. Hopefully that's coming post-DNC/endorsement, because we know Trump is happy to promise all sorts of unachievable magic beans bullshit to win, and having a weak/no policy platform to counter that will not drive turnout.
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Jul 29, 2024 03:56
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facialimpediment posted:Yeah here's the one that's the reported vote, rather than the favorability numbers: The irony is making my brain explode.
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Jul 29, 2024 04:42
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https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1817744769688465515
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Jul 29, 2024 04:48
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Look at those puny calves. Godamn.
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Jul 29, 2024 04:54
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Keep in mind the state that is pivotal to Dems is PA, if they can winPA the path to 270 is considerably easier and negates AZ and NV. Everyone will hype up WI, but PA is the lynchpin.
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Jul 29, 2024 05:43
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