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Cybernetic Vermin
Apr 18, 2005

rotor posted:

like no its not replacing us today but if you can't see it on the horizon you need glasses

total time spent writing code for a software developer is still quite low, so it is not necessarily much of a problem. chatted with one of the copilot engineers at a thing couple of months back, and they made some pretty good points about it. the most compelling that obviously for testing it is good if it can be derived from the specification entirely independently from the person writing the "real" code. i.e. let a future copilot just spew a billion fairly readable tests for your code based on comments and documentation. even if they are bad/wrong that will still be a something like a double-check for free.

also automation should be good, and it hitting a well-off segment of society is very good as it makes it more likely that society will change to make something of this good.

Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Jan 9, 2023

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rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

Cybernetic Vermin posted:


also automation should be good

should be but typically aint.

akadajet
Sep 14, 2003

rotor posted:

played with copilot at all?

can I feed it design mockups and have it implement everything?

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

akadajet posted:

can I feed it design mockups and have it implement everything?

no, but automation rarely automates every step of the process first. It absolutely writes common code for you, and by 'writes' of course I mean "steals from people who open-sourced their projects".

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome
again:

rotor posted:

like no its not replacing us today but if you can't see it on the horizon you need glasses

akadajet
Sep 14, 2003


I think you're wrong.

SporkOfTruth
Sep 1, 2006

this kid walked up to me and was like man schmitty your stache is ghetto and I was like whatever man your 3b look like a dishrag.

he was like damn.

Cybernetic Vermin posted:

let a future copilot just spew a billion fairly readable tests

at least 3 things in this sentence are not only unverifiable, but also a wild hazard to anyone or anything that depends on that hypothetical code

quote:

also automation should be good, and it hitting a well-off segment of society is very good as it makes it more likely that society will change to make something of this good.

mm, the very common "holders of capital will invest it in the thing for the common weal" from the history of never

Cybernetic Vermin
Apr 18, 2005

SporkOfTruth posted:

at least 3 things in this sentence are not only unverifiable, but also a wild hazard to anyone or anything that depends on that hypothetical code

there is literally no way they can be worse than human-produced tests is the thing

Cybernetic Vermin
Apr 18, 2005

SporkOfTruth posted:

mm, the very common "holders of capital will invest it in the thing for the common weal" from the history of never

it is a nice place for it though, if the plan was to roll back automation as the vehicle for ending capitalism we should probably demechanize agriculture. that sounds loving horrible though, capitalism needs to be fixed in a way more fundamental way than trying to preserve jobs under it, so i'm pretty ok with accepting the accelerationism of white pmc people getting automated.

that said i don't foresee ai as it stands doing much other than, as noted, something like guided fuzzing.

Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Jan 9, 2023

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

akadajet posted:

I think you're wrong.

yeah? well I think you're wrong!!

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

Cybernetic Vermin posted:

there is literally no way they can be worse than human-produced tests is the thing

yeah like i think people tend to forget just how low the bar is for replacing human programmers

SporkOfTruth
Sep 1, 2006

this kid walked up to me and was like man schmitty your stache is ghetto and I was like whatever man your 3b look like a dishrag.

he was like damn.

Cybernetic Vermin posted:

there is literally no way they can be worse than human-produced tests is the thing

a human test at least attempts to be based on the problem, an AI test regurgitates a hallucinated Gaussian mixture.

Cybernetic Vermin posted:

it is a nice place for it though, if the plan was to roll back automation as the vehicle for ending capitalism we should probably demechanize agriculture. that sounds loving horrible though, capitalism needs to be fixed in a way more fundamental way than trying to preserve jobs under it, so i'm pretty ok with accepting the accelerationism of white pmc people getting automated.

that said i don't foresee ai as it stands doing much other than, as noted, something like guided fuzzing.

the highlighted thing here doesn't fully cover everyone harmed by lovely code & garbage technological practices under capitalism -- consider, for example, this Black guy arrested in Georgia for a crime in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, despite the fact he has literally never been to Louisiana in his life. he was IDed with a garbage AI facial recognition system

so accelerating their creation with "large language model trained on song lyrics and maybe also garbo github commits"....probably not an acceptable tradeoff.

ADINSX
Sep 9, 2003

Wanna run with my crew huh? Rule cyberspace and crunch numbers like I do?

Actually writing the code is the easiest part of my job

ADINSX
Sep 9, 2003

Wanna run with my crew huh? Rule cyberspace and crunch numbers like I do?

And also the most satisfying so canít wait until thatís replaced with endless ai generated code reviews

akadajet
Sep 14, 2003

canít wait to send my chatbot to all my planning meetings

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome
yeah i think that ok its yospos and computers are bad and its all jokes but i think people sometimes need to take a moment and consider that maybe computers are an important factor in everyones life and whether that was a good idea or not, its a fact and we should at some point try to at least some approximation of a civil engineers sense of public responsibility

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome
i typed that whole thing on my phone so if it doesnt make any sense its tim cooks fault

echinopsis
Apr 13, 2004

before computers people in my job had to manually typewriter every drug label and also record every single drug entry into a big loving book and hand write all god drat day

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

echinopsis posted:

before computers people in my job had to manually typewriter every drug label and also record every single drug entry into a big loving book and hand write all god drat day

good

polyester concept
Mar 29, 2017

so far it seems like ai can only do variations of what already exists. you still need somebody familiar with the requirements and limitations of the project to be able to determine if the ai generated code is useful. in the not too distant future i can see a lot of developer jobs shifting towards guiding an ai towards a specific goal by defining input parameters. when ai can replace that job, then weíre in trouble

The Management
Jan 2, 2010

sup, bitch?

distortion park posted:

the garbage day newsletter pointed out that essentially all ai output is staggeringly unmemorable after you get over the novelty which struck me a correct. it might also say something about the way we think and how ai works but I'm not smart enough to say what

large language models generate text that passes your brainís filter for intelligence. it does not actually write intelligent text.

The Management
Jan 2, 2010

sup, bitch?
put another way, they are good at emulating language. they are not capable of emulating thought.

they are not going to take programming jobs because they cannot come up with solutions to problems. they donít have that kind of intelligence, and they wonít. not ten years from now either.

they wonít even replace art jobs except in the most trivial cases where quality doesnít matter. they will become a tool for artists to produce things much more rapidly.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

The Management posted:

put another way, they are good at emulating language. they are not capable of emulating thought.

they are not going to take programming jobs because they cannot come up with solutions to problems. they donít have that kind of intelligence, and they wonít. not ten years from now either.

they wonít even replace art jobs except in the most trivial cases where quality doesnít matter. they will become a tool for artists to produce things much more rapidly.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4018633

???

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

polyester concept posted:

so far it seems like ai can only do variations of what already exists. you still need somebody familiar with the requirements and limitations of the project to be able to determine if the ai generated code is useful. in the not too distant future i can see a lot of developer jobs shifting towards guiding an ai towards a specific goal by defining input parameters. when ai can replace that job, then weíre in trouble

i mean like 10 years ago if someone had told me I'd be able to say "produce an image of galdalf riding a giant duck in the style of vincent van gogh" and it would produce such an image I'd have said you were nuts.

Given the immense fiscal rewards for making a machine that takes input of, for instance, UML diagrams and natural language requirements, I dont see how we wont see something like that in 10 years.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

rotor posted:

i mean like 10 years ago if someone had told me I'd be able to say "produce an image of galdalf riding a giant duck in the style of vincent van gogh" and it would produce such an image I'd have said you were nuts.

Given the immense fiscal rewards for making a machine that takes input of, for instance, UML diagrams and natural language requirements, I dont see how we wont see something like that in 10 years.

"given the immense fiscal rewards for making a car that drives itself, i don't see how we won't see something like that in 10 years"
- many people, 10 years ago

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

The Management posted:

put another way, they are good at emulating language. they are not capable of emulating thought.

they are not going to take programming jobs because they cannot come up with solutions to problems. they donít have that kind of intelligence, and they wonít. not ten years from now either.

they wonít even replace art jobs except in the most trivial cases where quality doesnít matter. they will become a tool for artists to produce things much more rapidly.

yes, and they will absolutely replace a bunch of programmers writing code where quality doesnt matter as well. As an interesting thought experiment, how many programmers would you say that represents, as a fraction of the total?

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

fart simpson posted:

"given the immense fiscal rewards for making a car that drives itself, i don't see how we won't see something like that in 10 years"
- many people, 10 years ago

if a corporation had the programmer equivalent of Tesla FSD in 10 years they will absolutely be shoving that crap into production as fast as they could

Beeftweeter
Jun 28, 2005

a medium-format picture of beeftweeter staring silently at the camera, a quizzical expression on his face

lmao

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

rotor posted:

if a corporation had the programmer equivalent of Tesla FSD in 10 years they will absolutely be shoving that crap into production as fast as they could

im just saying that some of the things that seem doable end up being really hard, and other things that seem hard end up doable. maybe copilot 3000 wont end up being good enough to make a real dent

Beeftweeter
Jun 28, 2005

a medium-format picture of beeftweeter staring silently at the camera, a quizzical expression on his face
i think you're overestimating how high the bar for "good enough" is

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

Beeftweeter posted:

i think you're overestimating how high the bar for "good enough" is

this is the unassailable foundation upon which i have chosen to build my fortress of rhetoric

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome

fart simpson posted:

im just saying that some of the things that seem doable end up being really hard, and other things that seem hard end up doable. maybe copilot 3000 wont end up being good enough to make a real dent

but yeah maybe, idk, im not fuckin Kreskin over here

Beeftweeter
Jun 28, 2005

a medium-format picture of beeftweeter staring silently at the camera, a quizzical expression on his face

rotor posted:

this is the unassailable foundation upon which i have chosen to build my fortress of rhetoric

it's not a bad argument imo, i think you're right for the most part. the proliferation of ai art and ai generated text both prove that the quality of output essentially doesn't matter (which, to be clear, sucks rear end)

why should we expect anything different from something that just spits out globs of code? as long as it works i think most people won't care, and that's sad, but it's cheap and easy. that's all that matters today unfortunately

echinopsis
Apr 13, 2004

use AI to write the boring parts of code so you can save the exciting parts for yourselves

echinopsis
Apr 13, 2004

Beeftweeter posted:

the quality of output essentially doesn't matter (which, to be clear, sucks rear end)


idk if it does. well maybe most of it does, but there are some examples of some very good stuff, stuff that at least looks like something a human could/would have made

stable diffusion and whatever else that came out in 2012 really opened some floodgates and all of a sudden the enthusiasts really ran with it and theyíve been the ones who have managed to drive it harder and faster and the output can be pretty convincing

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

i prefer my bits to be handcrafted with care

Beeftweeter
Jun 28, 2005

a medium-format picture of beeftweeter staring silently at the camera, a quizzical expression on his face

echinopsis posted:

idk if it does. well maybe most of it does, but there are some examples of some very good stuff, stuff that at least looks like something a human could/would have made

stable diffusion and whatever else that came out in 2012 really opened some floodgates and all of a sudden the enthusiasts really ran with it and theyíve been the ones who have managed to drive it harder and faster and the output can be pretty convincing

ai graphics and texts are birds of a feather i think. looking at it from an artistic standpoint is very similar to reading ai generated text: it's convincing, and it might even be kinda good, but it's... off, somehow. you can tell

it may get to the point where stable diffusion is indistinguishable from human output, but creativity isn't going to be there. it can't really make anything that hasn't been done before, because it's based on previous output. that doesn't lend itself to artistry really

rotor
Jun 11, 2001

classic case of pineapple derangement syndrome
like i dont think there's suddenly going to be zero programmers. I just think that vast swathes of them that are working on vanilla predictable business database skins will be put out of work in favor of a few people who know how to put all this poo poo using ai generated code.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

shithub slowpilot

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git apologist
Jun 4, 2003

those people will be redirected to yet another worthless and annoying task that doesnít need to be done

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