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Okay, in that case I think this is actually one of the few gamestates where no-execution could be good for town. I don't make this case lightly. Option A: I die and then either Maer proves her claim to be true and leaves while Foo gets voted out for not saving me and not having a good reason for that, OR Maer doesn't disappear and then gets voted out for lying. Easy. Option B: Somebody else dies. Maer is the worst option but that's gambling hard on her not having anything up her sleeve she hasn't mentioned. Tsi is the next most confirmed after me with the night message IMO. It's going to be very hard for me to believe that wologar would not go for the quick win by confirming being partnered with Cube if I'm in 3 man ELO with him and Foo. If wolo dies somehow, and there's no message confirmed, I'll believe Tsi is lying and vote there but that's the only exception I can see as likely. Option C: Nobody dies. Maer resolves herself one way or another and then it's the 4 of us staring at each other. Bad, but decidedly better than a hypothetical misyeet here, which could mean if Maer absconds that town loses in the night over her vanishing and the last scum killing me.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:06
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Ah, right, Maer claimed to visit me successfully last night in spite of Foo's jail. That makes the case for no-ex a lot simpler, if Maer flips as legit then Foo is scum, otherwise it's Maer.  ##vote no execution
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Sep 21, 2024 22:08
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I am willing to no ex until Maer has run out of targets if we have to, but I suspect we may not have to.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:09
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The only alternative I'm interested in btw is voting Foo.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:17
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:Ah, right, Maer claimed to visit me successfully last night in spite of Foo's jail. That makes the case for no-ex a lot simpler, if Maer flips as legit then Foo is scum, otherwise it's Maer. i see where you're coming from but i'm not not voting maer at this point
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Sep 21, 2024 22:25
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Captain Foo posted:i see where you're coming from but i'm not not voting maer at this point  Either you're lying about jailing me or she's lying about visiting me. She's made a claim that is provable by her leaving the game. No-execution would give her the time to abscond and flip or prove that she can't without losing the game for town. Seems simple enough to me.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:28
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If you see it as an inescapable box I've been there and I've claimed in the past to get it over with. No hard feelings about it being bad play either because you got kind of a bum deal with the unintended mod error, you'd have gotten a lot more time if we had had to vote Cube out today instead of look for the last scum in the remaining herd.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:32
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:
correct but from my point of view she is obviously the liar so we should vote her out and win
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Sep 21, 2024 22:34
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Captain Foo posted:correct but from my point of view she is obviously the liar so we should vote her out and win Suit yourself I guess. If you're legit, you can jail her at night and then she has at most two days to check for the last blind before she's caught and that would prove that she's lying while also saving town, but if you don't want to do that then I'm not a big believer in your towniness.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:42
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That is pretty much what I'd expect from a town jailer anyway, jail the killer and stop the kill at its source. No kill tonight to go with no yeet today, then Maer claims to check you or Tsi and not find her last blind needed to abscond; no yeet again, you jail her again, no death at night again, and then she has to come up with some new reason why she can't leave that will be clearly horseshit and we vote her out.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:52
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I'm open to a really good argument as to why that won't work. I don't expect you to have one, but this game is all about the surprises so hit me with your best shot.
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Sep 21, 2024 22:54
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I'd actually like some other players to weigh in at this point rather than just quarterbacking the entire rest of the game for maer to read and plan around
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Sep 21, 2024 22:58
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Captain Foo posted:I'd actually like some other players to weigh in at this point rather than just quarterbacking the entire rest of the game for maer to read and plan around How is Maer going to plan around being jailed? She won't be able to do anything at night based on your claim. She'll be hosed.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:00
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i don’t know! I don’t know what her power actually is or how it might interact with anything else claimed, or if other people haven’t been fully forthcoming with their power to avoid telling scum what they can do Like i don’t think your logic is bad per se i just don’t like attempting to full plan because there are still unknowns
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Sep 21, 2024 23:14
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with 5 players any chance there are 2 scum left? I'm not good at "ideal setup math" but 4 scum that are basically all just traitors/don't know who other scum are doesn't seem totally crazy to me I know Foo is lying so I have little reason to move from him
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Sep 21, 2024 23:16
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Foo why would you jail Meen anyway?
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Sep 21, 2024 23:19
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Captain Foo posted:i don’t know! I don’t know what her power actually is or how it might interact with anything else claimed, or if other people haven’t been fully forthcoming with their power to avoid telling scum what they can do We know what people have claimed to be able to do and there's bound to be only one scum left, so the only brain scum have to work with is the last remaining one. We also know your claim directly contradicts Maer's so one of you is lying and therefore scum. From your perspective, how could it make sense to do anything but jail her if you got overruled and trust that your action would stop her from acting? There's not really any ambiguity for you and for me it's been reduced to exactly you and Maer. Are you expecting that wologar, Tsi, or I would get in your way for some reason? Do you expect her to be a secret arsonist that doesn't have to take an action to blow people up? It feels like you're getting squirrely over a solid way to prove yourself legit via stopping a kill which is weird to me.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:27
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Maerlyn posted:with 5 players any chance there are 2 scum left? I'm not good at "ideal setup math" but 4 scum that are basically all just traitors/don't know who other scum are doesn't seem totally crazy to me 3 scum in 14 with one aux scum infinite vig is pretty spicy. You'd also have to sell me on who you thought of Tsi or wologar was scum and why in the world they didn't vote me out yesterday with Cube.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:30
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When I caught up D1, I saw many beautiful roles go to waste and that Meen is in the zone, so I haven't bothered analyzing the gamestate.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:35
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That said, after drive-by reading, voting no-exe seems like a bad idea. Imagine a world where Foo is not scum, we no-exe and Maer absconds. We go to YOLO, vote Foo and scum wins. Yay?
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Sep 21, 2024 23:36
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Re my last post, I had one hated stack and Fancy talked Cube into voting me for 3 - if there were 3 scum in the team, the third would've confirmed Cube's post for Fancy so that he could shoot another town and the voting threshold would drop low enough they could get me knocked out (3 votes between scum and the killer + the hated stack =  )
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Sep 21, 2024 23:37
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wologar posted:That said, after drive-by reading, voting no-exe seems like a bad idea. Imagine a world where Foo is not scum, we no-exe and Maer absconds. We go to YOLO, vote Foo and scum wins. Yay? I'm having a lot of trouble seeing you or Tsi as scum. You're gonna have to sell me on why Foo wasn't confirmed as safe to shoot.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:38
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Also in that world I'm dead and Foo will have to reevaluate immediately given Maer couldn't have killed me.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:41
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:I'm having a lot of trouble seeing you or Tsi as scum. You're gonna have to sell me on why Foo wasn't confirmed as safe to shoot. But that requires  .Ignatius M. Meen posted:Also in that world I'm dead and Foo will have to reevaluate immediately given Maer couldn't have killed me. Scum wouldn't need to follow your plan, right?
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Sep 21, 2024 23:44
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I do not advocate no ex lightly. It requires extremely specific circumstances. These look like they've been met by my best estimation and that's the only reason I'm doing it.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:44
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wologar posted:But that requires If they leave me alive then there's the risk Foo pulls up in a way that actually sells me on him being legit somehow. I could see it being you maybe, for instance.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:46
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wologar posted:That said, after drive-by reading, voting no-exe seems like a bad idea. Imagine a world where Foo is not scum, we no-exe and Maer absconds. We go to YOLO, vote Foo and scum wins. Yay? No exe right now does seem like the worst of options. Even if Maer didn't abscond, it still puts us in a situation where we have to get it right tomorrow, only with more choices.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:46
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:If they leave me alive then there's the risk Foo pulls up in a way that actually sells me on him being legit somehow. I could see it being you maybe, for instance. It's not me. I wouldn't talk about other scenarios otherwise.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:49
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I'm inclined to vote Maer. If she's town, it wouldn't matter to her that she doesn't get to abscond, right? And we get to yeet Foo next day. I don't think it's Iggy nor Tsi.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:51
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Tsietisin posted:No exe right now does seem like the worst of options. Even if Maer didn't abscond, it still puts us in a situation where we have to get it right tomorrow, only with more choices. If it isn't Foo, and there's a kill tonight, then the only way town wins is if Maer doesn't abscond. She'll be one of the last 3.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:51
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Hmm. Okay, I can see the logic in guaranteeing Maer flips here. If she's lying, then we win, and if she's not, she's still town, there will still be at most one body tonight probably, and will win when we vote Foo next. ##vote Maerlyn
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Sep 21, 2024 23:55
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:Hmm. Okay, I can see the logic in guaranteeing Maer flips here. If she's lying, then we win, and if she's not, she's still town, there will still be at most one body tonight probably, and we'll win when we vote Foo next. ##vote Maerlyn
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Sep 21, 2024 23:55
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This also sidesteps the problem of her being a liability in 3 player ELO. Works for me!
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Sep 21, 2024 23:56
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Let's. ##vote Maer
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Sep 21, 2024 23:56
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Crap, someone engage me in entropy talk.
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Sep 21, 2024 23:57
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C'mon.wologar posted:Crap, someone engage me in entropy talk. Ah yes, verily. Entropy will destroy all musical sinners.
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Sep 22, 2024 00:00
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Votecount for Day 2 🟢🟢🟢 Maerlyn (3): Captain Foo, Ignatius M. Meen, wologar ⚪⚪🟢 Captain Foo (1): Maerlyn ⚪⚪⚪ Execute No One! (0): Ignatius M. Meen, Not voting: Tsietisin With 5 alive, it's 3 votes to execute. The current deadline is September 23rd, 2024 at 10 p.m. EEST -- that's in about 1 day, 19 hours.
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Sep 22, 2024 00:04
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Maerlyn TOWN-aligned Balatro has been voted outquote:You win when all threats to town are eliminated It is now night 2 you have 24 hours for night actions, but if you leave them close to deadline you might have a long night
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Sep 22, 2024 00:07
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Ignatius M. Meen TOWN-aligned Day and Night Hostage-Taker has died on Night 2quote:You win when all threats to town are eliminated It is now Day 3 deadline is currently set on 22.00 UTC+3 on Tuesday.
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Sep 22, 2024 18:54
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Votecount for Day 3 Not voting: Captain Foo, Tsietisin, wologar With 3 alive, it's 2 votes to execute. The current deadline is September 24th, 2024 at 10 p.m. EEST -- that's in about 2 days, 1 hour.
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Sep 22, 2024 18:54
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