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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

I dont know posted:

Interesting. Why is Pakistan providing aid? My assumption is it's part of a favor/deal with the US. Is there something else?

Are they providing aid, or just selling stuff for hard American cash?

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Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

DarklyDreaming posted:

Yeah that part of the world is not without animosity to Russian imperialism

Pakistan though? the Soviet-Afghan war was quite a while ago and idk that they have strong and enduring ties with the peoples of central Asia (who currently have, to be excessively brief, complicated feelings about their relationship with Russia) unless getting conquered by ancient Timurids a few times counts as such. i would figure they more just have no love for Russia because Russia's pretty friendly with India

Pakistan is publicly denying any transfer of arms so the US offering cash for some stuff they had laying around in a shed seems plausible

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
Pakistani animosity to Russia is rooted in the Soviet Union backing India in various Indo-Pakistani wars. While now they've pivoted away from being a US ally, and functional country, in the past they were the more pro-western of Pakistan-India divide.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009
Pakistan is like Taiwan where they are afraid of being invaded by a much larger neighbor primarily armed with Russian-based weapons.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

OddObserver posted:

Are they providing aid, or just selling stuff for hard American cash?

It is the latter.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Morrow posted:

Pakistani animosity to Russia is rooted in the Soviet Union backing India in various Indo-Pakistani wars. While now they've pivoted away from being a US ally, and functional country, in the past they were the more pro-western of Pakistan-India divide.

Yeah, Russia still is a buddy and supplier of India although not as important as during cold war, and history is not easily forgotten when the dispute continues.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Nenonen posted:

Yeah, Russia still is a buddy and supplier of India although not as important as during cold war, and history is not easily forgotten when the dispute continues.

India is also one of the countries that has really profited from the war by buying Russian oil and gas at discounted prices.

thekeeshman
Feb 21, 2007

The X-man cometh posted:

Pakistan is like Taiwan where they are afraid of being invaded by a much larger neighbor primarily armed with Russian-based weapons.

This is complete nonsense. Pakistan started every war between them and India, not to mention constantly supporting terrorism against India, while India has done nothing of the kind in retaliation. Also Pakistan has nukes, their deterrence doesn't rely on conventional arms.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1725157813364600855?s=20

quote:

"As I promised, I am writing. Impressions from over a week's stay in Ukraine. There will be no operational details, but please know that we met with analysts, sub-unit commanders. The trip was very productive.

Let's start with Załużny's article in The Economist. The word stalemate was used rather awkwardly (more on that in a moment). But it emphasizes that the counteroffensive has fizzled out. Ukraine currently does not have the potential to conduct offensive operations.

I personally think that the culmination point of the counteroffensive took place... in September, when the Ukrainians 'broke through' the Russian line of fortifications west of Werbowe.

I don't expect major changes here until spring, although I assume that some form of attacks in Zaporizhzhia will be maintained (attacks by teams/platoons). This is not Normandy 1944, and no one here is waiting for a magical breakthrough.

I don't know if Załużny deliberately used the word 'stalemate', but unfortunately, it has political connotations. I believe that from Zelensky's perspective, a stalemate could lead to a freezing of the front (as in 2015) and a retreat of military aid from the west. Hence his immediate comment, countering Z's words.

Ukraine is receiving less ammunition than in the summer period, which affects the intensity of artillery fire. Ammunition also arrives in Ukraine irregularly, which complicates planning operations.

Given the above, I expect that Kyiv will slowly shift to defense and focus on building up fortification systems. This will allow for a reduction in forces engaged in maintaining the front and for the gradual rebuilding of forces and training of units that have so far been involved in fighting.

Given the failure to achieve the objectives of the counteroffensive, Kyiv must rethink its current theory of victory and the concept of using forces.

It seems that 2024 will be difficult for Ukraine. There is a lack of equipment in the west, probably ammunition as well. Some gaps will be filled by drones (hundreds of thousands produced annually from 2024).

But to recapture territory, combined operations are needed, air attacks (drones??), artillery, tanks, and IFVs. The latter three are likely to be lacking. Besides, I said six months ago that the peak of equipment deliveries (contracted) for Ukraine had passed. Nothing has changed in this regard.

The Russians conduct reconnaissance of front-line areas 24/7. Not a mouse can slip through, not to mention large amounts of equipment. To put these words in context, we saw what a Russian attack on Ukrainian positions looks like.

Within 30 seconds of detection, the Russian group was covered by mortar fire. After another four minutes, by cluster artillery ammunition. The Russians do the same. These are the realities of this war."

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904
Every now and then I see some stories about Ukrainian men avoiding being drafted, probably because of slow news day.

I have talked with more than a handful of younger Ukrainian men around central Europe who have left since the war started, none have outright admited to dodging the draft, but all had no intention of going back to fight. One recent conversation was interesting, the 'kid' was 23 years old, lived just north of the Zaphorhze dam, seemingly had no ill will towards Russians (although he wished for Putin to die soon), and said the war was just for the rich to make more money. He also seemed to believe, based on conversations with friends and family fighting in the war, that Western arms/supplies are not in the equation as no one he talked to has seen them...

These sentiments are of course not suprising coming from people not wishing to fight in a war and that have probably fled their country to do so, but it does worry me that this sentiment is spreading, in particular that this is a war caused, inflamed, and pressed on by profiteers.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Dick Ripple posted:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904
Every now and then I see some stories about Ukrainian men avoiding being drafted, probably because of slow news day.

I have talked with more than a handful of younger Ukrainian men around central Europe who have left since the war started, none have outright admited to dodging the draft, but all had no intention of going back to fight. One recent conversation was interesting, the 'kid' was 23 years old, lived just north of the Zaphorhze dam, seemingly had no ill will towards Russians (although he wished for Putin to die soon), and said the war was just for the rich to make more money. He also seemed to believe, based on conversations with friends and family fighting in the war, that Western arms/supplies are not in the equation as no one he talked to has seen them...

These sentiments are of course not suprising coming from people not wishing to fight in a war and that have probably fled their country to do so, but it does worry me that this sentiment is spreading, in particular that this is a war caused, inflamed, and pressed on by profiteers.

EDIT: I misread, sorry. I mean, people not wanting to fight will always find a reason to believe that escaping their friends and family dying is always the right reason.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Dick Ripple posted:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904
Every now and then I see some stories about Ukrainian men avoiding being drafted, probably because of slow news day.

I have talked with more than a handful of younger Ukrainian men around central Europe who have left since the war started, none have outright admited to dodging the draft, but all had no intention of going back to fight. One recent conversation was interesting, the 'kid' was 23 years old, lived just north of the Zaphorhze dam, seemingly had no ill will towards Russians (although he wished for Putin to die soon), and said the war was just for the rich to make more money. He also seemed to believe, based on conversations with friends and family fighting in the war, that Western arms/supplies are not in the equation as no one he talked to has seen them...

These sentiments are of course not suprising coming from people not wishing to fight in a war and that have probably fled their country to do so, but it does worry me that this sentiment is spreading, in particular that this is a war caused, inflamed, and pressed on by profiteers.

Interesting. Of course we need to be careful because without going to Ukraine and talking to people there, there's a massive selection bias because the young men that are outside of Ukraine rights now will mostly be draft dodgers.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007
Yeah the sentiment of draft dodgers is pretty obvious and not particularly reflective of non-draft dodgers.

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

thekeeshman posted:

This is complete nonsense. Pakistan started every war between them and India, not to mention constantly supporting terrorism against India, while India has done nothing of the kind in retaliation. Also Pakistan has nukes, their deterrence doesn't rely on conventional arms.

If you had done all that to your neighbour, wouldn’t you be afraid of them invading you?

You might even get some extravagantly lethal weapon that would reassure you they would be stupid to do so; that wouldn’t make you not afraid.

NTRabbit
Aug 15, 2012

i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches




The X-man cometh posted:

Pakistan is like Taiwan where they are afraid of being invaded by a much larger neighbor primarily armed with Russian-based weapons.

Not sure they'd appreciate the comparison, given they're a long term strategic partner of China who got the road decades before the belt existed.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

NTRabbit posted:

Not sure they'd appreciate the comparison, given they're a long term strategic partner of China who got the road decades before the belt existed.

X-man meant India. Pakistan and China both have border disputes or more with India, which is a solid basis for partnership (as was the need to stop Soviet expansion during cold war).

thekeeshman
Feb 21, 2007

radmonger posted:

If you had done all that to your neighbour, wouldn’t you be afraid of them invading you?

You might even get some extravagantly lethal weapon that would reassure you they would be stupid to do so; that wouldn’t make you not afraid.

India's never even threatened to invade Pakistan, and do you really think Hindu nationalists want to add hundreds of millions of Muslims to India's population for the sake of some worthless dirt? Nothing in Pakistan's behavior or rhetoric has ever suggested that they're afraid of India invading, if they were they probably would have less stupid foreign policies than they do now.

Bug Squash
Mar 18, 2009

thekeeshman posted:

India's never even threatened to invade Pakistan, and do you really think Hindu nationalists want to add hundreds of millions of Muslims to India's population for the sake of some worthless dirt? Nothing in Pakistan's behavior or rhetoric has ever suggested that they're afraid of India invading, if they were they probably would have less stupid foreign policies than they do now.

I don't think a single person was suggesting a war of annexation, and I don't think I need to explain why the border issues make further India-Pakistan conflicts a possibility.

saratoga
Mar 5, 2001
This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08
MTLB loaded with explosives set on auto pilot:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1725377543799185550#m

Interesting how obviously improvised these tactics are. Looks like they don't even have remote steering, just jam the wheel forward and put a brick on the gas pedal.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1725402777705173064#m

Really intense fighting ongoing.

The UK now says over 300k Russian casualties:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-losses-ukraine-war-300000-uk-data-b2447476.html

bitprophet
Jul 22, 2004
Taco Defender
I swear that first video is a repost of one from like last year, right down to the focus on the soldier as they run for cover.

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002

Slur, your fighting style is extremely problematic!

I saw a similar video shout from the Ukrainian side, but the vehicle almost made it across.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Pakistan also has some minor pre-Crimea Invasion arms cooperation with Ukraine.

Coquito Ergo Sum fucked around with this message at 05:48 on Nov 18, 2023

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://www.powervertical.org/2023/11/17/toward-a-theory-of-success-in-ukraine/

A non-paywalled recent Kofman podcast.

vuk83
Oct 9, 2012

thekeeshman posted:

India's never even threatened to invade Pakistan, and do you really think Hindu nationalists want to add hundreds of millions of Muslims to India's population for the sake of some worthless dirt? Nothing in Pakistan's behavior or rhetoric has ever suggested that they're afraid of India invading, if they were they probably would have less stupid foreign policies than they do now.

India’s interest aren’t full control of Pakistan, but they would like the rest of Kashmir, thank you very much.

thekeeshman
Feb 21, 2007

vuk83 posted:

India’s interest aren’t full control of Pakistan, but they would like the rest of Kashmir, thank you very much.

Of course they would, just like Pakistan would like India's bit of Kashmir and Bangladesh back, but if you take 2 seconds to look at the actual history of the two countries it's clear that the chances of Pakistan starting poo poo with India are far higher than the reverse.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

thekeeshman posted:

Of course they would, just like Pakistan would like India's bit of Kashmir and Bangladesh back, but if you take 2 seconds to look at the actual history of the two countries it's clear that the chances of Pakistan starting poo poo with India are far higher than the reverse.

I really don't know who you think you're arguing with.

stevey666
Feb 25, 2007

EasilyConfused posted:

I really don't know who you think you're arguing with.

This is not really surprising given that you're easily confused.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Inferior Third Season
Jan 15, 2005

Sorry, stevey. I noticed too late that you were just making a joke about the username. I don't think I have the ability to rescind a probation once given, but I will edit the rap sheet entry.

TheWeedNumber
Apr 20, 2020

by sebmojo

Inferior Third Season posted:

Sorry, stevey. I noticed too late that you were just making a joke about the username. I don't think I have the ability to rescind a probation once given, but I will edit the rap sheet entry.

You should give him a voucher to probe someone else for 12 hours.

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord

Inferior Third Season posted:

Sorry, stevey. I noticed too late that you were just making a joke about the username. I don't think I have the ability to rescind a probation once given, but I will edit the rap sheet entry.

This misfire did make me laugh a lot this morning so it wasn’t all for naught.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

buglord posted:

This misfire did make me laugh a lot this morning so it wasn’t all for naught.

Agreed, really improves the joke.

Thanks for your sacrifice stevey666 :pressf:

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost
Didn't see this posted, it's a month old, interview with Stephen Kotkin re Ukraine and strategy: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/should-the-west-threaten-the-putin-regime-over-ukraine

This Kotkin guy has some weird ideas, for example he's saying the west should be threatening Putin with regime change:

quote:

The threat of regime change in Russia—to force Putin into an armistice to preserve his regime, or to encourage others to do it—is among the ways to get Ukraine on a path toward peace. It might look like a bad idea, based on historical examples. It would not be easy, that’s for sure. But what is the superior, realistic alternative? More tanks that have limited battlefield utility because they lack air cover, while even F-16s would have limited effect because Russia has saturation S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries and a large inventory of missiles? Are we going to bomb Russian territory, where many of those batteries are located? Are we going to bomb factories located in Russia producing replacement batteries and missiles and other weapons? Are we going to blockade all of Eurasia, from Turkey through the U.A.E., Kazakhstan, and North Korea, not to mention China, to prevent easy sanctions-busting? Conjure munitions for Ukraine out of thin air? Watch a much smaller country fight a war of attrition indefinitely, costing lives and treasure?

Interesting stuff though, food for thought. Overall somewhat pessimistic tone. My ideas for ending the conflict aren't actually better than this guy's, so dunno

Ms Adequate
Oct 29, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



jaete posted:

This Kotkin guy has some weird ideas, for example he's saying the west should be threatening Putin with regime change:

How does he reckon we'd do a regime change on ol' Vladdy boy without exerting at least the level of effort of all those things combined, if not uhhh you know getting into WW3?

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008

jaete posted:

Didn't see this posted, it's a month old, interview with Stephen Kotkin re Ukraine and strategy: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/should-the-west-threaten-the-putin-regime-over-ukraine

This Kotkin guy has some weird ideas, for example he's saying the west should be threatening Putin with regime change:

Interesting stuff though, food for thought. Overall somewhat pessimistic tone. My ideas for ending the conflict aren't actually better than this guy's, so dunno

Very interesting read. I had the same thoughts at the beginning of the war (but I am a total idiot) - that if you want Russia to stop quickly, there has to be sufficient domestic pressure and I don't think engineering that domestic pressure should be off the table. Especially given how much Russia has tampered with elections world wide already.

I absolutely don't think successful regime change is possible from the West, but I also don't think attempting to deescalate western participation was important. Salami slicing can go both ways after all. If Putin is paranoid of Western backed color revolutions, let him keep having that fear instead of taking it off the table.

I mean Russian antiwar activists are already getting thrown in prison for 7 years for stickers, so some support their way can't hurt.

https://paperagency.team/skochilenko_en

His point about Western rhetoric not matching Western commitments is spot on.

WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Nov 21, 2023

Keisari
May 24, 2011

EasilyConfused posted:

Agreed, really improves the joke.

Thanks for your sacrifice stevey666 :pressf:

Same, it was hilarious as hell. A true pre-coffee morning probe. Please let it stand!

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

I think Putin has the manpower, resources and economic support from India/China to wait out the clock on this one. The west is too decadent and disinterested to support Ukraine properly with the minimum arms shipments needed to help them win. Every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict impacts Ukraine disproportionately compared to the people Russia has been throwing into this war. The Russian troops are expendable.

I’m not sure Putin will score a total victory but I do think he’s going to keep everything he’s conquered so far and slowly chip away at the rest because I think western business leaders want to go back to normal and collect russian money.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

Kraftwerk posted:

I think Putin has the manpower, resources and economic support from India/China to wait out the clock on this one. The west is too decadent and disinterested to support Ukraine properly with the minimum arms shipments needed to help them win. Every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict impacts Ukraine disproportionately compared to the people Russia has been throwing into this war. The Russian troops are expendable.

I’m not sure Putin will score a total victory but I do think he’s going to keep everything he’s conquered so far and slowly chip away at the rest because I think western business leaders want to go back to normal and collect russian money.

There is no going back to normal anytime soon, especially if Putin decides to sit back and ''chip away''. The current levels of support and interest are not going to just suddenly vanish either, and outside of major political changes in the US and EU majors proper support would likely remain.

This is an existential fight for Ukraine, and not for Russia (although some in the Kremlin may think that). And whatever calculus you may use to determine how long a nation is willing to put up with their young men dying, usually the one facing that existential threat sticks it out longer.

Mulva
Sep 13, 2011
It's about time for my once per decade ban for being a consistently terrible poster.

Kraftwerk posted:

I think Putin has the manpower, resources and economic support from India/China to wait out the clock on this one. The west is too decadent and disinterested to support Ukraine properly with the minimum arms shipments needed to help them win. Every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict impacts Ukraine disproportionately compared to the people Russia has been throwing into this war. The Russian troops are expendable.

I’m not sure Putin will score a total victory but I do think he’s going to keep everything he’s conquered so far and slowly chip away at the rest because I think western business leaders want to go back to normal and collect russian money.

Lets play a game: I want you to imagine the number of people that Putin has to draw on for this war. The total, sky is the limit number. Then I want you to imagine what you think causalities are like for Russia right now.

It's probably about 30 million when you remove women, those too young or old for even Russia, and those too sick or disabled for Russia to bother with. Not to mention the Party members that aren't going to step a single loving foot in the direction of Ukraine. And of that number, we are getting close to like 1/30th of it has already been hosed up in Ukraine. Doesn't sound like a lot? That's drawing from the entire working male population of the country. You start getting into the Cool Zone way before that number reaches half.

Ukraine is in an existential war for it's survival because Russia is run by genocidal monsters. Russia is also in an existential war for it's survival because they are also totally loving incompetent at being genocidal monsters. The war for Ukraine could end in Russia's favor right this second and they'd have still crippled themselves for decades with all the dumb poo poo they did to get this far. And the war isn't, in fact, going to end anytime soon.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Mulva posted:

And of that number, we are getting close to like 1/30th of it has already been hosed up in Ukraine. Doesn't sound like a lot?

Last official figure from Zaluzhny was 150 000 dead, open source estimates confirm about 40 000.

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Wifes and mothers of the mobilised have been lately trying to stage protests. Not against the war itself or Putin, but against the conditions under which their husbands and sons have to fight. Previously, the preferred method of spreading awareness was recording videos that later were picked up by Z tg channels, but now they are going for street protests, which means that the effectiveness of tg videos has diminished. So far, local governments prefer to reach out to organisers before they take to the streets and promise more money and benefits, and in some rare cases they send the police. While Russia managed to avoid the Afghanistan war levels of active dissent, it looks like things are slowly bubbling over.

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